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PARIS — The surprise assault by Hamas against Israel was a meticulously planned offensive that the Palestinian militant group is capable of keeping up, with a risk of even greater escalation, analysts say.

Hamas can count on a deep arsenal of rockets to use against Israel but key questions include how much support it has received from Iran, which has expressed its backing for the offensive, and whether the Tehran-backed Lebanese Shiite group Hizbollah will enter the fray.

More than 700 Israelis have been killed in the country’s worst losses since the 1973 Yom Kippur war — when it was also caught flat-footed by a combined Egyptian and Syrian attack — and over 400 Palestinians slain as Israel presses a relentless bombardment of Hamas’ Gaza stronghold.

“It was a huge failure on the Israeli side and a huge achievement for Hamas,” said Kobi Michael, senior researcher at the Tel-Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.

“In order to launch such an operation, you have to do a lot of preparation, planning, coordination and you have to have a very meaningful, significant, essential strategic prospect or objective that you are seeking to achieve,” he added, emphasising that Hamas “knows the price of such an operation will be very high”.

‘Substantial arsenal’ 

In May 2021, Hamas had already surprised Israel by sending thousands of rockets — sometimes a hundred within a few minutes — aimed at saturating its Iron Dome anti-missile defence system.

Then, Hamas used 4,360 rockets in the space of 15 days while this time around 3,000 fell on Israel in two days, according to Elliot Chapman, analyst for the British security intelligence group Janes.

“It is unclear if the militants will be able to sustain this volume of fire over the next few days. If so this would be the largest rocket attack on Israel so far,” he told AFP.

Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that Hamas should still have a “substantial arsenal of rockets” kept in reserve and it “seems likely they will be able to keep up the rocket fire for quite a while”.

Hamas has an arsenal that is difficult to quantify numerically but certainly ample.

Its arms come from an array of different sources, including Iran but also Syria, Libya after the fall of Muammar Qadhafi and other Middle Eastern countries — not to mention weapons stolen or captured from Israel itself, said a Western expert on armaments who posts anonymously on X (formerly Twitter) under the handle Calibre Obscura.

“It’s an arsenal of stocks that had been built up for decades,” said Calibre Obscura, with small arms and rifles stemming from sources in China, Russia and eastern Europe.

For Chapman the “vast majority” of Hamas’ rocket arsenal is however “domestically manufactured”.

“They require a basic workshop and materials and can be mass produced by Hamas and similar types,” he said, describing them as “unguided missile systems” that “require no advanced technology to be launched”.

‘Long time to prepare’ 

What happens next will depend both on Israel’s own decisions — notably if it launches a ground invasion of Gaza after its 2005 pullout from the territory — and what kind of backing Hamas itself received for the offensive.

“We might see a few entirely new capabilities [from Hamas] emerge in case of a full ground invasion of the Gaza Strip,” said Hinz.

He warned that close combat in the densely-populated Gaza Strip would be “gruelling” and a scenario the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) had tried hard to avoid over the last years.

“Hamas had a long time to prepare for this kind of scenario, so even for a military as well-trained and equipped as the IDF it would be quite a challenge and probably come with heavy losses.”

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said Tehran supports what he described as the “legitimate defence” of the Palestinians but a White House official said said it is “too early to say” whether Iran was “directly involved” even if there is “no doubt Hamas is funded, equipped and armed by Iran and others.”

Kobi Michael argued that “Hamas would not have dared to launch such an operation without having a very reliable and serious policy insurance and they got it from Hizbollah and Iran”.

The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing members of Hamas and Hizbollah, that Iran had helped to plan the assault with a final green light given at a meeting in Beirut last week.

A nightmare scenario for Israel would be a multifront war also involving Hizbollah activity on its northern border.

The Lebanese group said Sunday it fired “large numbers of artillery shells and guided missiles” at Israeli positions in a contested border area “in solidarity” with the Palestinian attack. Israel responded with its own fire.

Chapman of Janes said that the the risk of Hizbollah involvement “is elevated” while in addition “Palestinian militant groups are very active in the West Bank and have called on the public to join the fray.”

OCCUPIED JERUSALEM — The death toll surged to almost 1,000 since Palestinian resistance group Hamas launched its massive surprise attack on Israel with a barrage of rockets and a large-scale ground assault, officials on both sides said on Sunday.

The conflict's worst escalation in decades has claimed more than 600 lives on the Israeli side, the government press office said, while Gaza officials reported at least 370 deaths, with thousands more wounded on each side.

Thousands of Israeli forces were deployed to battle Hamas fighters in the south and the airforce again pounded targets in the Gaza Strip as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of a "long and difficult" war ahead.

There was widespread shock and dismay in Israel after at least 100 citizens were captured by Hamas gunmen and abducted into Gaza.

Israel was stunned when Hamas launched their multi-pronged offensive at dawn Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath, raining down thousands of rockets as fighters infiltrated towns and kibbutz communities and stormed an outdoor rave party held under the desert sky.

Panicked Israeli residents phoned media outlets as they hid out in their homes from militants going door to door and shooting civilians or dragging them away.

‘No respite’ 

Global concern has mounted, with Western capitals condemning the attack by the Islamist group Hamas, which Washington and Brussels consider a terrorist group.

Israel’s foes have praised the assault, including Iran whose President Ebrahim Raisi spoke Sunday with leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad and voiced his support, according to official media in the Islamic republic.

Anti-Israel protests have flared in some other majority Muslim countries, and Germany and France were among nations stepping up security around Jewish temples and schools.

US President Joe Biden has voiced “rock solid and unwavering” support for its key ally Israel and warned “against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation”.

 ‘Liberate our land’ 

Hamas has labelled its attack “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” and called on “resistance fighters in the West Bank” and “Arab and Islamic nations” to join the battle.

Its attack came half a century after the outbreak of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, called the Yom Kippur war in Israel, sparking bitter recriminations on what was widely seen as an enormous intelligence failure.

“There was a very bad failure here,” said Sderot resident Yaakov Shoshani, 70. “The ‘Yom Kippur War’ was small compared to it, and I was a soldier in the Yom Kippur War.”

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh has predicted “victory” and vowed to press ahead with “the battle to liberate our land and our prisoners languishing in occupation prisons”.

Hamas said Saturday it had fired 5,000 rockets, while Israel reported some 3,000 incoming projectiles. Several bypassed the Iron Dome missile defence system and smashed into buildings as far as Tel Aviv.

Israel rushed forces to the embattled south, called up reservists and hit Gaza in operation “Swords of Iron”, with some observers predicting a possible ground invasion of Gaza.

Israeli attacks have reduced several Gaza residential towers to rubble in what Israel said were strikes aimed at Hamas facilities and which had followed warning calls for people inside to evacuate.

Another strike completely destroyed a mosque in Gaza’s Khan Yunis.

Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, leading to Israel’s blockade of the impoverished enclave of 2.3 million people.

Many Gaza residents voiced defiance, with Mohammed Saq Allah, 23, saying: “We will not give up, and we are here to stay. This is our land, and we will not abandon our land.”

The new war follows months of rising violence in the occupied West Bank and tensions around Gaza’s border and at contested holy sites in Jerusalem.

Before Saturday, the conflict had killed at least 247 Palestinians, according to Palestinian officials.

Violence flared again in the West Bank Saturday, leaving at least seven Palestinians dead, said the health ministry in Ramallah.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged “all diplomatic efforts to avoid a wider conflagration” and stressed that “only through negotiation leading to a two-state solution can peace be achieved”.

CAIRO — Two Israeli tourists and one Egyptian were killed on Sunday by a policeman in Egypt, local media and Israeli authorities said, as war rages for a second day between the neighbouring country and Hamas.

The policeman fired "at random" at an Israeli tour group visiting Alexandria using "his personal weapon", the state-affiliated private television Extra News said quoting a security source.

A fourth person was wounded and the policeman was "immediately arrested", it added.

The Israeli foreign ministry confirmed the deaths in a statement.

"This morning during a visit of Israeli tourists in Alexandria, Egypt, a local opened fire at them, murdering two Israeli citizens and their Egyptian guide," it reads.

"In addition, there is a wounded Israeli in moderate condition."

The deaths come as fighting rages after Palestinian militants on Saturday launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel, which has declared war on Hamas and launched air strikes on Gaza.

Egypt was the first Arab country to forge a peace deal with Israel in 1979, and has long served as a key intermediary between Israel and the Palestinians.

However, despite the diplomatic relations, Israel remains largely unpopular among Egyptians.

In June, three Israeli soldiers were killed in a firefight at the border with Egypt by a member of the Egyptian security forces who crossed the border “in pursuit of drug traffickers”, according to the Egyptian army.

On Saturday, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi warned of a “vicious cycle of tensions threatening regional stability and security”.

• At least 200 Israelis die in large-scale attack by Hamas 
• Intense air strikes on Gaza bring Palestinian death toll to at least 232
• UN Middle East peace envoy warns of ‘a dangerous precipice’

SDEROT, Israel, —  At least 200 Israelis died in a surprise large-scale attack by the Palestinian group Hamas on Saturday, the army said, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to reduce the group's Gaza hideouts to "rubble".

Intense air strikes on the coastal enclave brought the Palestinian death toll to at least 232, Gaza officials said, following Hamas's massive rocket barrage and ground, air and sea offensive, in the conflict's bloodiest escalation in decades.

Gun battles raged into the night between Israeli forces and hundreds of Hamas fighters in at least 22 Israel locations, including at least two where gunmen were holding hostages, the army said.

“Terrorists rampaged and broke into homes, massacring civilians,” the army said, adding that more than 1,000 people in Israel were wounded by gunshots or the more than 3,000 incoming rockets.

“We are at war,” Netanyahu told the stunned nation in the morning, after Hamas had launched its multipronged attack at dawn, half-a-century after the outbreak of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

“I’m telling the people of Gaza: Get out of there now, because we’re about to act everywhere with all our force,” the premier said later. “We’ll strike them to the bitter end and avenge with force this black day they brought on Israel and its people.”

He warned that “all the places in which Hamas is based, in this city of evil, all the places Hamas is hiding in, acting from — we’ll turn them into rubble”.

As the UN Security Council called an emergency meeting for Sunday, President Joe Biden voiced “rock solid and unwavering” support for the US ally and warned “against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation”.

‘So many bodies’ 

As night fell, the Israeli army said its forces were still engaged in live gun battles in 22 Israel locations, in an ongoing operation labelled “Swords of Iron”, as reservists were being called up.

“There are still 22 locations where we are engaging with terrorists that came into Israel, from the sea, from the land and from the air,” said army spokesman Richard Hecht on what he labelled a “robust ground invasion”.

Hamas earlier released images of several Israelis taken captive, and another army spokesman, Daniel Hagari, confirmed that “there are kidnapped soldiers and civilians”.

“I can’t give figures about them at the moment. It’s a war crime committed by Hamas and they will pay the price.”

Hecht said there was also a “severe hostage situation” in the Negev desert communities of Beeri and Ofakim east of Gaza.

The Islamist group started the multi-pronged attack around 6:30am (0330 GMT) with thousands of rockets aimed as far as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, some bypassing the Iron Dome defence system and hitting buildings.

Hamas fighters — travelling in ground vehicles, motorised paragliders and boats — breached Gaza’s security barrier and attacked nearby Israeli towns and military posts, opening fire on residents and passersby.

“Send help, please!” one Israeli woman sheltering with her two-year-old child pleaded as fighters outside opened fire and tried to break into their safe room, Israeli media reported.

Bodies were strewn on the streets of the Israeli town of Sderot near Gaza and inside cars, the windscreens shattered by hails of bullets.

“I saw many bodies, of terrorists and civilians,” one man told AFP, standing beside covered corpses on a road near Gevim Kibbutz in southern Israel.

“So many bodies, so many bodies.”

AFP journalists witnessed Palestinian armed men gather around a burning Israeli tank, and others driving a seized Israeli military Humvee back into Gaza, where they were met by cheering crowds.

 ‘Gates of hell’ 

Israeli army Maj. Gen. Ghasan Alyan warned Hamas had “opened the gates of hell”.

An AFP journalist in Gaza saw smoke billowing from the remains of bombed residential towers which Gaza’s interior ministry said contained 100 apartments.

Israel’s military said it had warned residents to evacuate before targeting the multistorey buildings used by Hamas.

Israel’s state-run electricity company cut the power supply to Gaza as army flares lit up the night sky.

The escalation follows months of rising violence, mostly in the occupied West Bank, and tensions around Gaza’s border and at contested holy sites in Jerusalem.

Before Saturday, at least 247 Palestinians, 32 Israelis and two foreigners had been killed this year, including combatants and civilians, according to Israeli and Palestinian officials.

Hamas labelled its attack “Operation Al Aqsa Flood” and called on “resistance fighters in the West Bank” as well as in “Arab and Islamic nations” to join the battle.

Its armed wing, the Ezzedine Al Qassam Brigades, claimed to have fired more than 5,000 rockets, while Hecht said Israel had counted more than 3,000 incoming rockets.

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh claimed the group was on the “verge of a great victory”.

“The cycle of intifadas [uprisings] and revolutions in the battle to liberate our land and our prisoners languishing in occupation prisons must be completed,” he said.

‘Dangerous precipice’ 

Air raid sirens wailed across southern and central Israel, as well as in Jerusalem. In Tel Aviv, a gaping hole was ripped into a building, with residents boarding a bus to flee to safety.

The conflict sparked major disruption at Tel Aviv airport, where many carriers cancelled flights. Schools will remain closed on Sunday, the start of the week in Israel.

Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, leading to Israel’s crippling blockade of the impoverished enclave of 2.3 million people.

Israel and Hamas have since fought several wars. The last major military exchange, in May, killed 34 Palestinians and one Israeli.

In northern Gaza on Saturday, hundreds of people fled their homes, carrying food and blankets, an AFP correspondent said.

Violence also erupted across the West Bank, including occupied east Jerusalem, with five Palestinians killed and 120 wounded in clashes with Israeli forces and settlers, Palestinian medical services said.

Western capitals condemned the wave of attacks by Hamas, which Israel, the United States and European Union consider a terrorist group.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the attack “terrorism in its most despicable form”.

But Hamas drew support from other foes of Israel, with Iran’s supreme leader declaring he was “proud” and Lebanese group Hizbollah praising the “heroic operation”.

UN Middle East peace envoy Tor Wennesland warned of “a dangerous precipice” and called on all sides to “pull back from the brink”.