Region

OCCUPIED JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a growing threat from centre-left rivals who have joined forces to try to oust the rightwing leader in snap elections, experts say.

Parliament on Monday set polling day for March 17, just over two years after Netanyahu's right-leaning coalition took office, and following a spat in which he fired two ministers and called the early vote.

The challenge will come from an alliance between Isaac Herzog's Labour Party and the centrist HaTnuah of former justice minister Tzipi Livni, whom Netanyahu dismissed along with finance minister Yair Lapid.

Such a centre-left alliance would win 24 seats in the 120-member Knesset, polls published in Yediot Aharonot and Maariv newspapers said Friday, with the dailies respectively projecting 23 and 20 seats for Netanyahu's Likud.

"Unlike in the previous elections [January 2013], we have a common goal — to replace Mr Netanyahu," Livni said in a television interview before the Labour-HaTnuah alliance was announced.

The latest poll numbers ignore the strong likelihood of Likud teaming up with other right-wing parties.

They do not indicate a shift in public opinion but rather simply the sum of each party's projected seats in a country that still favours the right, according to Denis Charbit, a politics professor at Israel's Open University. 

Post-election moves 

"By making the alliance with HaTnuah, Labour is becoming once again the centre of gravity for the left and a credible party for government," Charbit said.

"But in general, political forces remain largely unchanged in terms of support, with the right-wing bloc favoured. It can still count on having around 70 MPs against the left and centre's 50 combined."

The success of Labour-HaTnuah will depend heavily on post-election moves by Moshe Kahlon, an ex-Likud minister who last month formed his own centre-right party Kulanu (All of Us), and by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, head of the far-right Yisrael Beitenu.

"Kahlon and Lieberman will find themselves acting as a pivot after the elections, and both have said they want to end the Netanyahu era," Charbit said.

While the premier is looking to secure a fourth term, some commentators say that whatever the outcome of the vote, he is sure to go.

"His authority has dissipated; his performance has become flawed; his political instincts have dulled; he has become fed up with his ministers and they have become fed up with him," Nahum Barnea wrote in the mass-circulation newspaper Yediot Aharonot.

'Attempt to oust Likud'  

Netanyahu himself is aware that many would like him out of government.

"There's a clear attempt to kick out the Likud and replace it with the left," he was quoted on public radio as telling his party on Thursday.

"It's the goal of many parties and media officials."

Netanyahu has indicated he might seek alliances with ultra-Orthodox parties, considering them "natural allies", and Yisrael Beitenu as well as the hardline Jewish Home headed by Economy Minister Naftali Bennett.

Bennett strongly opposes negotiations with the Palestinians and supports settlement expansion in the West Bank — a sticking point that has scuppered round after round of peace talks.

Observers say a centre-left government would be far more likely to resume peace talks as the international community calls for negotiations to avoid further escalation.

Livni was Israel's chief negotiator during the last round of US-brokered talks, which collapsed in April mainly over the issue of settlement building.

The left has also criticised Israel's immigration policy, after Netanyahu's government pushed for a harsher crackdown on African asylum seekers, which it refers to as "infiltrators".

A law passed in March which raises the threshold of votes parties require to be represented in parliament could see many parties making alliances.

Israel's next general election had been due to take place in 2017, and many commentators have called the upcoming vote "unnecessary".

BEIRUT — The meteoric rise of the Islamic State (IS) group and its ability to recruit Western jihadists reflect the extent to which religious radicalism has come to dominate global conflict.

After decades of dictatorship interrupted by three years of revolt, the Middle East saw fresh upheaval in 2014 as IS fighters swept across Syria and Iraq and the Gaza Strip was devastated by its third conflict in six years.

Endemic corruption, poor economic development, the failure of Arab nationalism and frustration over the Palestinian cause have all contributed to the rise of Islamism as an alternative for the region, the birthplace of the three great monotheistic religions.

According to Raphael Lefevre, visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Centre, the turning point came in 2003 when the United States invaded Iraq.

The attack "exacerbated the sectarian fault lines in the region... and facilitated the rise of Iran as an active strategic player in the Arab world", Lefevre told AFP.

"It also gave rise to a sense of Sunni vulnerability among populations across the Levant," he added.

In Syria, the Alawite-dominated regime was aided by Shiite Iran in its suppression of a revolt by majority Sunnis. In Iraq, the Shiite leadership was accused of discriminating against Sunnis.

"It's through the lenses of this short history that the rise of [the Islamic State, the Al Nusra Front] and other Sunni extremist groups can be perceived," said Lefevre.

Failure of Arab nationalism 

The rise of Islamism was also spurred by the failure of Arab nationalism, whose aim was to transcend religion, but which was too intrinsically linked to secular, despotic regimes.

The failure to defeat Israel, as well as a disastrous economic situation, also fanned the religious fervour.

The 1993 Oslo peace accords signed by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation "caused a shock because they meant one could no longer fight for the Palestinian cause", said Nayla Tabbara, who teaches religious studies at Beirut's Saint Joseph University.

"There was no cause any more, and this explains Islamism's magnetism," she added.

Christians flee Middle East 

Islamic radicalism has had a devastating impact on the Christians' ancient presence in the region, especially after IS seized Mosul, Iraq's second city.

"Christians in Lebanon and in other countries became very scared... This pushed them to escape," said Tabbara.

According to French expert Fabrice Balance, some 700,000 to 800,000 Christians have left Egypt, Syria and Iraq since 2011.

Religion has long been a main component of social and political life in the Middle East, and Israelis and Palestinians have also become more radicalised in recent months.

"Political Islam is making a comeback by focusing on the feeling of injustice caused not only by Israel, but also by the whole of the international community," Tabbara said.

Hamas and Israel fought a 50-day war in July and August which resulted in the deaths of about 2,200 Palestinians and more than 70 Israelis.

There has also been a string of attacks by Palestinians against Israelis, including hit-and-run incidents.

According to Israeli historian Zeev Sternhell, "there has definitely been a radicalising, hardline trend, but strictly speaking, it has been more nationalistic than religious".

"Religion is used to serve the hardcore nationalists and massive settlers. Today, [religious] fanatism is more hardline than ever," he said.

Religion and nationalism, added Sternhell, "go hand in hand".

Looking to the divine 

A dramatic new trend is the capacity of IS to recruit among disaffected youths in the West.

According to a recent study, around 15,000 foreign fighters have joined the group in Syria. About 20 per cent are Westerners.

"These young people feel that our societies no longer have anything to offer them, and the thrill of fighting for a cause makes them believe they have unlimited power, a divine power," said anthropologist and psychologist Scott Atran.

"It's glorious and adventurous. The feeling that one can change the world is very attractive," said Atran, who teaches at the French Public Institute of Research and at Michigan University in the United States.

Tabbara added: "People need to feel their lives have meaning, they need to feel the divine. As that no longer exists in the West, [new recruits] are travelling wherever they can find it."

She said the fighters "are also looking for a sense of community and brotherhood. That's what makes young people join these movements”.

KHARTOUM — Sudan's President Omar Bashir claimed victory over the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Saturday after it shelved further investigation of war crimes in Darfur, and reaffirmed his hard line on the rebel region.

The Hague-based court indicted Bashir in 2009 for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in suppressing the Darfur revolt.

But the court's prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said on Friday she was shelving the Darfur investigation for lack of support from the Security Council, the UN body able to take coercive measures that could compel Bashir and co-defendants to face the court.

"They wanted us to kneel before the International Criminal Court but the ICC raised its hands and admitted that it had failed," Bashir said in a defiant speech.

"The Sudanese people have defeated the ICC and have refused to hand over any Sudanese to the colonialist courts."

The ICC has also charged Bashir's defence minister, interior minister and a militia leader.

None has been arrested and Sudan has been shielded from further action at the 15-member Security Council by China, a veto-wielding permanent member.

Prosecutor Bensouda said on Friday the council's inaction would only "embolden perpetrators to continue their brutality".

"I am left with no choice but to hibernate investigative activities in Darfur as I shift resources to other urgent cases," she added.

Darfur has been racked by conflict since mainly non-Arab tribes took up arms in 2003 against the Arab-led government in Khartoum, accusing it of discrimination. It has killed as many as 300,000 people and displaced 2 million, the UN says.

In his speech, Bashir lashed out at the opposition, which is largely boycotting April polls, warning those who had signed unity agreements with rebels to stay abroad with the "traitors".

He reaffirmed his refusal to address Darfur alongside a separate but closely linked insurgency, mounted by former civil war fighters left in Sudan after South Sudan seceded in 2011.

"There won't be a new [peace] agreement in Darfur and we won't group South Kordofan and Blue Nile with Darfur. There is no relationship between the two regions," he said.

Negotiations to end a three-year-old insurgency in the southern provinces collapsed on Tuesday after rebels insisted talks include their allies in Darfur.

Rebels said on Friday they had captured army outposts as near as seven kilometresfrom South Kordofan's capital.

The army did not return requests for comment.

"This year, there will be no more rebellions. The armed forces are ready," Bashir said. "We welcome those who are ready for peace, but we will not wait indefinitely for them. Everything has a limit."

BOSTON  — The Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned US businesses to be on the alert for a sophisticated Iranian hacking operation whose targets include defence contractors, energy firms and educational institutions, according to a confidential agency document.

The operation is the same as one flagged last week by cyber security firm Cylance Inc. as targeting critical infrastructure organisations worldwide, cyber security experts said. Cylance has said it uncovered more than 50 victims from what it dubbed Operation Cleaver, in 16 countries, including the United States.

The FBI’s confidential “Flash” report, seen by Reuters on Friday, provides technical details about malicious software and techniques used in the attacks, along with advice on thwarting the hackers. It asked businesses to contact the FBI if they believed they were victims.

Cylance Chief Executive Stuart McClure said the FBI warning suggested that the Iranian hacking campaign may have been larger than its own research revealed. “It underscores Iran’s determination and fixation on large-scale compromise of critical infrastructure,” he said.

The FBI’s technical document said the hackers typically launch their attacks from two IP addresses that are in Iran, but did not attribute the attacks to the Tehran government. Cylance has said it believes Iran’s government is behind the campaign, a claim Iran has vehemently denied.

An FBI official did not provide further details, but said the agency routinely provides private industry with advisories to help it fend off cyber threats.

The Pentagon and National Security Agency had no immediate comment.

Tehran has been substantially increasing investment in its cyber capabilities since 2010, when its nuclear programme was hit by the Stuxnet computer virus, widely believed to have been launched by the United States and Israel.

Cyber security professionals who investigate cyber attacks said that they are seeing evidence that Iran’s investment is paying off.

“They are good and have a lot of talent in the country,” said Dave Kennedy, CEO of TrustedSEC LLC. “They are definitely a serious threat, no question.”

Iranian hackers are increasingly being blamed for sophisticated cyberattacks.

Bloomberg Businessweek on Thursday reported that Iranian hacker activists were responsible for a devastating February 2014 attack on casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp., which crippled thousands of servers by wiping them with destructive malware. It said the hackers sought to punish Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson for comments he made about detonating a nuclear bomb in Iran.

RAMALLAH — Thousands of Palestinians gathered Thursday to mourn a senior official who died in a confrontation with Israeli troops, as the army sent reinforcements to the West Bank and braced for unrest.

The Palestinian leadership blamed Israel for the "killing" of 55-year-old Ziad Abu Ein, as tensions threatened to boil over into another round of violence in the occupied territories.

Officials and onlookers streamed into the Ramallah headquarters of President Mahmoud Abbas in the late morning, ahead of a planned funeral procession to a nearby cemetery, an AFP correspondent said.

Uniformed Palestinians carried Abu Ein's coffin, draped in a Palestinian flag, into the courtyard, as nationalist songs blared and mourners chanted "Revenge!" and "Your blood will not be spilled in vain!"

Schools were closed in a day of mourning and posters of Abu Ein were plastered on walls throughout the West Bank city.

A short distance away, additional Israeli troops and border guards were being deployed in anticipation of clashes with mourners and protesters, an army spokeswoman said, especially given the cemetery's proximity to the Jewish settlement of Psagot.

Abu Ein died Wednesday after a confrontation with Israeli soldiers during a protest march against settlements by some 300 Palestinians who intended to plant olive trees as a symbolic act, an AFP photographer said.

Troops fired tear gas, three soldiers grabbed Abu Ein and he was struck in the chest during the confrontation. Videos circulating online showed the soldiers pushing Abu Ein firmly in the chest and neck.

He collapsed and was treated by an Israeli army doctor, but died later in hospital.

Israel 'fully responsible' 

"After hearing the results of the post-mortem, the Palestinian government holds Israel fully responsible for the killing of Ziad Abu Ein," government spokesman Ihab Bseiso told reporters in Ramallah on Thursday.

A Palestinian minister said the post-mortem, which was carried out by a Palestinian, an Israeli and Jordanian doctors, had shown that Abu Ein was killed by the actions of Israeli troops.

“The reason for the death of Abu Ein was his being hit by [Israeli] occupation troops and because of the heavy use of tear gas,” Palestinian civil affairs minister, Hussein Al Sheikh, told AFP.

Sheikh said Israeli forces had prevented Abu Ein from getting to a hospital quickly enough to save his life.

Israel’s health ministry said the death was caused by a “blockage of the coronary artery” which “could have been caused by stress”, adding that Abu Ein suffered from poor health including heart disease.

The incident prompted Abbas to threaten measures in response.

“All options are open for discussion and implementation,” Abbas told an emergency session of the Palestinian leadership late Wednesday, amid speculation that crucial security cooperation with Israel could be shelved.

Islamist movement Hamas, rivals of Abbas’ West Bank administration and de facto rulers of the Gaza Strip, urged the Palestinian Authority (PA) to cease security coordination immediately.

High tension 

Israel’s government urged calm, with Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon expressing regret for the death and saying a military inquiry had been launched.

“Security stability is important for both sides,” he said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a message through one of his aides to Abbas in which he “pointed to the need to calm the situation and act responsibly”, his office said.

The death of Abu Ein, who was a former PA deputy minister and was responsible for dealing with the settlement issue, follows months of tensions between Israelis and Palestinians and a wave of unrest in the West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem.

Israelis are on edge after “hit-and-run” car attacks by Palestinians that killed five people, as well as an assault last month that saw two Palestinians burst into a Jerusalem synagogue, leaving four rabbis and a policeman dead.

The tensions have been heightened by Israeli announcements of new settlement construction in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

BEIRUT/AMMAN — Rebels in southern Syria say they have taken a step towards unity that may attract more support from their Western and Arab backers, forging a joint defence pact to help shield them from government forces and Islamic State (IS).

The south is the last major stronghold of the mainstream opposition to President Bashar Assad following the expansion of IS in the east and north and gains by Al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front in the northwest.

A short drive from Damascus, the southern front remains a risk for Assad as he shores up his control over key areas of central Syria. Insurgent groups including both mainstream rebels and Nusra have made slow but steady gains in the south against government forces, analysts who track the conflict say.

As the United States seeks partners on the ground for the campaign against IS, the southern rebels are trying to address long-standing criticisms of the so-called moderate opposition by getting better organised.

“We are moving in steps. The joint defence agreement is part of the complete plan for uniting the southern front,” said Bashar Al Zoubi, head of the Yarmouk Army — one of the biggest rebel groups in the south. He spoke to Reuters via the Internet.

The agreement dated December 6 and signed by 17 rebel leaders was seen by Reuters. It follows an agreement among the southern groups on a transition plan for Syria.

With the war about to enter its fourth year, analysts say rivalries among a plethora non-jihadist groups have been one of their major weaknesses. The Turkey-based Syrian political opposition has little or no sway over the armed groups.

Rebels in the north last week unveiled a separate initiative grouping mainstream factions with hardline Islamists including Ahrar Al Sham — a group US Secretary of State John Kerry has equated with IS. That makes partnering with it a complicated prospect for Assad’s Western opponents.

The separate initiatives underscore the divergent paths of the war. The southern rebels believe resolving the conflict in the south is easier than resolving it in the north, where the jihadists are dominant.

They advocate an approach that would see the war in the south resolved first. Their transition plan safeguards state bodies and guarantees the rights of religious minorities who worry the alternative to Assad is Al Qaeda.

Rebels in the south have already received what they describe as small amounts of military and financial support from Western and Arab states. 

The main Arab backers of the southern groups are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Qatar, which has funnelled aid to Islamists in the north, has been kept out.

Islamic State

Though they have received support including American-made anti-tank missiles, it is not yet clear how these groups may fit into US plans for building an opposition force to confront IS, which is more of a threat in the north for now.

Abu Hamza Al Qabouni, head of a Southern Front group from Damascus, said the rebels aimed to coalesce into something resembling an army. “The main gain of this agreement is that it makes unification easier,” he said.

“If we’re talking about the type of threat, we say naturally it is the regime, with Daesh as the second target,” he added, using a derogatory Arabic acronym for Islamic State.

The south is currently scene of one of the fiercest battles between the government and its armed opponents in and around the town of Sheikh Maskin. State media reports have said the army has been inflicting daily losses on the insurgents there, all of whom it describes as terrorists.

Jordanian military analyst retired general Mamoun Abu Nowar said the rebels were gaining incrementally. “They are moving in the direction of a centralised command,” he said. “There is an external foreign dimension that is allowing them to work this way,” he added, pointing to the foreign backing.

Nusra is fighting alongside the Western-backed groups in the south, though the rebels say they do not coordinate with it. The rebels say their concern about Nusra has grown since it routed two mainstream opposition groups in the northwest in October.

Mohammad Mahameed, the head of another Southern Front group, forecast further advances. “After we implement this pact there will be even more progress on the ground,” he told Reuters.

“Our backers have a perceptive vision and they see who is effective on the ground and support them.”

DUBAI — Oman's Shura council has voted to ban alcohol, an official of the advisory body said, a move that, if approved by the Cabinet, would bring the sultanate in line with some other conservative Gulf Arab states and could hurt plans to expand tourism.

"The members voted for generalising the punishment on anyone practice alcohol-related activities including production, dealing, or trading," the official told Reuters.

"But, of course, this is still a recommendation, not a law by itself."

Oman, a small non-OPEC oil exporter, has smaller energy reserves than its wealthy Gulf neighbours and is trying to diversify its economy, in part by expanding its tourism sector. It seeks to become a major destination for cruise tourism.

Currently anyone found producing, consuming or trading alcohol without a permit is liable to a jail term of between 6 months and 3 years, or a minimum fine of 300 Omani rials ($779), or both, the council official said.

Permits to buy and drink alcohol are only issued to non-Muslims, in effect restricting alcohol only to visitors to Oman.

The council on Monday voted to recommend putting a blanket ban on such activities, and making them punishable with a jail term of between 10 days and one year, or a minimum fine of 200 rials, or both. Permits would be abolished.

The council's action remained only a vote, The Times of Oman newspaper quoted tourism ministry official Maitha Al Mahrooqi as saying. Oman had historically welcomed people from all over the world and would continue to do so.

She added, "We may be putting more rules and regulations in terms of the services and qualities, and not to ban it. That is what I can say at this stage”. 

DOHA — NATO's secretary general on Thursday praised Gulf nations for their role in fighting extremists in Syria and Iraq, and said tackling the threat the militants pose will require long-term multinational efforts.

Jens Stoltenberg made the comments during a visit to the tiny, energy-rich nation of Qatar to mark the 10-year anniversary of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, or ISI, a partnership between the alliance and four Gulf states.

He said it is important that the OPEC nation and other regional countries are playing a part in the fight against extremists.

"It is vital for military reasons because of the capability Gulf countries can bring to bear, but also for political reasons to show that this is not about the West imposing its will on others," Stoltenberg said.

A number of Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have taken part in air strikes against IS. Others, such as Qatar, a thumb-shaped country jutting into the central Persian Gulf, are playing a supporting role.

Several of the Gulf states host airbases and other military installations vital to the aerial campaign, while Kuwait and Bahrain have hosted conferences focused on countering extremist ideology and fund-raising efforts.

Qatar is home to the vast Al Udeid airbase, the site of US Central Command's regional air operations centre.

The ICI includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the Emirates, and aims to promote security cooperation between NATO and the countries involved.

CAIRO — Libya's recognised government will continue a military campaign to claim back the capital Tripoli, Prime Minister Abdullah Al Thinni said on Wednesday.

Libya is divided between two governments since a group called Libya Dawn seized Tripoli in August after a month-long battle with a rival group, setting up its own parliament and government.

Prime Minister Abdullah Al Thinni has been forced to work from the East where the elected House of Representatives is also based, part of turmoil three years after the ousting of Muammar Qadhafi.

Thinni told Dubai-based TV channel Al Arabiya his forces were advancing on Tripoli from the west and would also seize the main border crossing to Tunisia.

"Our troops are moving towards Tripoli to liberate it," he said, claiming his forces had seized a town west of the capital. Thinni's forces, allied to a former general and tribesmen in Zintan in the western mountains, have launched air strikes on Tripoli.

The rival Tripoli government, accused by its opponents of relying on Islamists, says Egypt and the United Arab Emirates help Thinni with the air strikes.

Thinni has denied this.

When asked whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE were offering humanitarian assistance, Thinni said in the television interview: "Our brothers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and our brothers in Egypt are ready to fulfil what the government and House of Representatives demand."

On Monday, UN Special Envoy Bernadino Leon said he planned to launch next week a new round of peace talks to bring together both conflict parties.

Leon said talks would this time also include the rival parliament based in Tripoli to widen a dialogue which has failed to make progress.

VIENNA — Several states pledged on Thursday to back a UN nuclear agency request for 4.6 million euros ($5.7 million) as soon as possible to pay for its monitoring of an extended, interim nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

The support voiced at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) highlighted the political importance of efforts to end a 12-year dispute over Iran's nuclear programme, also for countries not directly involved in the diplomacy.

Norway pledged 1 million euros — more than a fifth of the total — and the Netherlands promised 100,000 euros, diplomats who attended the closed-door session in Vienna said.

The United States and Britain - two of the powers engaged in negotiations with Iran - also said they would help. "We would like to announce our intent to make an additional extra-budgetary contribution," US Ambassador Laura Kennedy said.

Iran and the United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia failed last month to meet a self-imposed deadline to resolve the nuclear standoff, giving themselves seven more months for negotiations.

As a result, the preliminary deal reached in late 2013 will remain in force. IAEA inspectors are checking that Iran lives up to its commitments under that accord to halt its most sensitive nuclear work in exchange for some easing of sanctions.

Yukiya Amano, director general of the IAEA told the agency's 35-nation governing board about the need for new voluntary budget contributions, in addition to requests totalling 6.5 million euros in January and July.

"I invite member states which are in a position to do so to make the necessary funding available as soon as possible in order to ensure smooth continuation of our activities," he said.

The European Union said it was "prepared to consider sympathetically the resource needs" of the IAEA.

Iran denies Western allegations it has been seeking to develop a nuclear weapons capability. But its refusal to scale back uranium enrichment has drawn international sanctions.

Iranian Ambassador Reza Najafi said negotiations on a final agreement had made good progress and a "lasting solution is closer than ever".

IAEA inspectors now visit Iran's enrichment facilities of Natanz and Fordow daily, compared to about once a week before the November 2013 agreement. The agency has also procured specialised equipment for its analytical work.

Amano said the IAEA's workload had greatly increased and that many staff "working on this matter will give up their Christmas and New Year holidays this year".