Democrats need an autopsy of 2024 defeat

Democrats are still reeling from the shock of losing to Donald Trump again. As finger-pointing and soul-searching continue, journalists and activists have written “autopsies” to understand the defeat and its lessons. 

I’d be less sceptical about these exercises’ merits if they weren’t narrowly focused on this election, as if these problems just emerged, and if they weren’t so likely to be quickly shelved and forgotten. 

Any serious analysis seeking to understand November 5th must begin by recognising that the seeds of this Democratic defeat were planted decades ago. 

A few weeks ago, I wrote my own finger-pointing exercise, but now want to examine more deeply the forces shaping our political landscape: 

1. Profound political, social, cultural and economic changes in American life have left millions of voters unsettled, insecure, and angry. Unmoored, they are looking for certainty. Historically, populations shaken by such dislocations have turned to forms of fundamentalism—finding certainty in a mythic, glorious past—or to “strong leaders” who understand their plight. 

2. In addition to societal changes, deep scars have been left on Americans’ psyche by dramatic transformative events. The terror attacks of 9/11 and failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan left Americans feeling vulnerable as our stature in the world diminished. Add the 2008-2009 economic collapse that shattered confidence in the American dream, all-too-frequent mass shootings, and traumatic impacts of COVID, and you have a society on edge. 

3. Given this context, political leadership’s response to the unsettled electorate is important. From Nixon’s presidency until today, a constant thread in the Republican playbook has been preying on voters’ fears and insecurities, with early targets like “Black” welfare recipients or criminals. Trump expanded the list to immigrants, particularly Mexicans and Muslims, the “deep state,” and pretty much any opponent—wielding the “fear of ‘them’” as a potent weapon. 

Democrats have appeared disconnected from most voters’ challenges by failing to speak to their pain. Instead, Democrats talked about their programs, progress in creating jobs, saving the environment, protecting women’s healthcare choices, and advocating for a balanced approach to immigration. While true, these policy discourses make Democrats sound out of touch, dismissive or even patronising. 

Voters want candidates who understand their insecurities and anger. Some Democrats have been effective at doing this: Barack Obama turned voters from fear to hope. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden showed voters their anger at income inequality and job losses, and promised to fight for them.

4. For decades Democrats were the party that supported economic justice for workers and believed government should play a role. Republicans were the party that protected the rich, proclaiming “lower taxes, less government”. 

Now, as a Republican Senator recently boasted, “We’ve become the party of the working class, while Democrats are the party of the elites.” Untrue, but they’ve successfully created that perception. 

How? Ask a Democrat today what the party stands for, and you’ll get lectured a range of social issues with no thread connecting them or making them relevant to working-class voters. Asked what they stand for, Republicans won’t say lower taxes. Instead, they’ll recite Trump’s list of “boogiemen” and Democrats’ cultural issues they hate. Or they’ll simply say: “Make America Great Again”—a catch-all phrase evoking a return to past “glory”, fighting cultural change, or defending Trump. As a successful Republican TV ad said, “She fights for them, he fights for us.” 

5. Political parties used to drive politics—real organizations from the local, to state, to national level. People belonged to parties. Today, parties are fundraising vehicles, amassing fortunes to pay consultants who run campaigns and the parties themselves. While many voters are small contributors, major donors contribute seven- and eight-figure amounts. 

Democratic consultants are the same cast of characters who’ve been running and ruining politics for decades—following the same playbook without appreciation for the changing electorate. Lacking imagination and risk-averse, they tie candidates up in knots about what they can and shouldn’t say. Trump freed himself from Republicans’ consultant class, acting on gut instinct, which voters read as authentic. 

What played out in this election has been brewing for decades. Unless Democrats take a hard look at how and why they’ve lost connection with working-class voters and allowed consultants to control their messaging and outreach, the defeat of November 5th may well be repeated.