Is this Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire real?

Two realities must be confronted in any consideration of “What’s next for Gaza?” The first is the naïveté of putting too much faith in the current ceasefire. The second is the dangerous insensitivity of failing to understand the true human toll of this war, it is far greater than the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed and/or severely wounded by Israeli forces.

The pause in Israel’s bombing of Gaza is, of course, a welcome development. Palestinians at last have some relief, the opportunity to grieve, and, for some, the possibility of trekking northward, to assess the damage to their bombed-out neighborhoods and dig through the rubble to find the bodies of missing family members. The pause has also allowed a huge influx of food and aid supplies into Gaza and passage of critically wounded Palestinians to Egypt for treatment.

The bad news is that the agreement is weak, with no enforcement mechanism. President Biden’s original plan, offered over six months ago, included the parties’ agreement to all three phases from the outset. 

According to the Israeli press, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been assuring supporters that he will only honor the first phase before resuming the bombing. He will not withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza, nor allow Palestinian governance in Gaza that politically connects it with the West Bank. 

The administrations of Biden and Trump have chosen to ignore Netanyahu’s intentions in order to celebrate their “success.”

Biden has been providing support and cover for the Israeli leader from the beginning. Since October 2023, Biden and co. supported Netanyahu’s goals and gave him free rein. Despite insisting that they’d been strenuously pursuing a ceasefire for six months, the administration clearly knew that Netanyahu wouldn’t agree. Nevertheless they continued to claim that Israel supported it, while Hamas was the obstacle. The charade continues with this agreement. Biden knows the ceasefire is of limited duration, but took the “PR victory” to end his term.

The pause provided much the same for incoming President Donald Trump, an early show of his ability to solve a problem that haunted his predecessor. That the ceasefire won’t last more than a few months does not matter. Forever the showman, Trump cares about the photo-op and ratings boost, not how long the ceasefire lasts. 

Clearly neither this Israeli government (or possible successor), nor the Trump administration (or possible successor) have any interest in a just solution to the conflict. Even setting aside the ceasefire, despite plans afoot to build toward peace starting with an interim government in Gaza, there is no real buy-in from the Israelis. Nor will the US pressure Israel to take the steps needed to move peace forward.

The equally worrisome reality is that wars have consequences long after the bombs stop falling that lay dormant for years before manifesting themselves. The Israelis and their American enablers, who never understood Palestinians’ humanity, can’t fathom this disastrous war’s long-term impact on its survivors. 

The counts are staggering: 47,000 dead, 116,000 wounded, 33,000 with permanent disabilities, 50,000 missing and unaccounted for, 90 per cent of the population (almost 1.9 million) forced to relocate with most now homeless, and 34,000 children orphaned with no surviving family members. 

Clearing the rubble and unexploded ordinance in Gaza may take two decades, and then longer to rebuild. Healing the war’s wounds plaguing the survivors will take much longer. The switch can be flipped to end the bombs, but this devastating war’s impact will take its toll for more than another generation, with trauma, anxiety, severe depression, and internalized violence leading to self-hurt or striking out at others. 

Compounding this pain is the shock of seeing the rubble of their former homes and ruins of their former communities. Over the decades of clearing and rebuilding, where are Palestinians to go? The Israelis will not look with compassion on these survivors of their genocidal war. Palestinians rightly fear that if they leave what is left to them in Palestine, the Israelis will not let them return. Neither the US nor the Israelis are prepared to ensure the counseling and care needed to heal the war’s wounds will be available to this community of victims. The future is, therefore, uncertain, but leaning toward bleak.

The writer is president of the Washington-based Arab American Institute