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Region feels ripples from Yemen’s turmoil as embassies close

By - Feb 12,2015 - Last updated at Feb 12,2015

SANAA — As Western diplomats and staff fled Yemen on Wednesday, concern widened over the increasing turmoil in the impoverished nation, with Saudi Arabia arming loyal tribesmen across its southern border and Egypt readying a military unit to intervene if needed.

The US, British and French moved to close their embassies, signaling a belief that conditions in Yemen would only deteriorate further as the rebels, who have taken over in nearly half the provinces, try to expand their control.

In a show of bravado, the rebels seized about 20 vehicles left by US diplomats and Marines at Sanaa's airport, officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to talk to the press. The Americans evacuated after destroying documents and heavy weapons at the embassy.

The rebels also seized weapons found in the US vehicles, the officials added — apparently referring to personal sidearms that the Pentagon said the Marines left behind because they could not take them on their departing commercial flight.

The Marine Corps said in a statement Wednesday that those sidearms were destroyed with sledgehammers at the airport before the Marines departed.

While Yemen has been in chaos for years, events took a dramatic new turn when the rebels, known as Houthis and suspected of being backed by Iran, took over the capital last fall and have spread over more of the country.

In January, the rebels put US-backed President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and his Cabinet ministers under house arrest, leading to their resignations. Subsequently, the Houthis, who are followers of the Shiite Zaydi sect in Sunni-majority Yemen, dissolved parliament and declared they were taking over the government.

The turmoil is starting to resonate around the Middle East, already shaken by bloody conflicts in Syria, Libya and Iraq.

As Houthi fighters advance to take more ground, Yemeni officials said Saudi Arabia, a staunch US ally, was sending arms and funds to tribesmen in Yemen's Marib province to bolster them against the rebels.

Saudi Arabia has in recent months repeatedly stated its concern over the Houthis' power grab, but the deeply secretive oil-rich kingdom has said nothing about arming or funding tribesmen there to fight the Shiite rebels.

Marib is an exclusively Sunni, energy-rich desert area on the border with Saudi Arabia where tribes have long been close to the Saudis. It is also home to a sizable number of militants from the local branch of Al Qaeda, the Houthis' sworn enemy.

Marib's tribal leaders, like many others in Yemen, have been on the receiving end of Saudi largesse for decades, and some of them hold Saudi nationality.

"Marib is the heart of Sunni tribal power," said Majid Al Modhaj, a Yemeni analyst. "Fighting there will take the Houthis away from their comfort zone in mountainous areas and into plain and flat desert land they are not used to."

Egypt has set up a special rapid deployment force that could intervene if the Houthis threaten shipping lanes in the strategic Red Sea, according to three Egyptian security officials. The force, they said, is drawn from the 3rd Army, which has been running security and intelligence operations in the Red Sea from its headquarters in Suez.

Yemen lies on one side of Bab Al Mandab, the narrow southern entrance of the Red Sea. The corridor leads up the Egyptian and Saudi coasts to Egypt's Suez Canal, a key sea route for oil traffic from the Gulf region.

The Egyptians and Saudis were coordinating a joint military response to deal with any eventuality in Yemen, including the disruption of shipping, the officials said.

The officials in both Yemen and Egypt spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to talk to the media.

"Yemen is like the moon to Egypt, but it is important because of Cairo's close ties with Saudi Arabia, to whom Yemen is a priority issue," said Michael W. Hanna, a Middle East expert from the New York-based Century Foundation.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia have forged close military ties since Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi took office in June, with frequent joint war games, including naval exercises in the Red Sea. Thousands of Egyptian special forces are embedded with their Saudi counterparts on the kingdom's border with Iraq as a precaution against militants of the extremist Islamic State group, according to the officials.

As the region's two most powerful Sunni nations, Saudi Arabia and Egypt view the rise of the Houthis with alarm, seeing them as a new geopolitical triumph by non-Arab Iran after it consolidated its influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

The Houthis deny links to Iran, and it has been difficult to determine with any accuracy Tehran's role in the latest events.

Still, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and a senior Foreign Ministry official made it clear in separate comments Wednesday that the Islamic Republic looks approvingly at events in Yemen.

"The power that assisted the people of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen against terrorist groups was the Islamic Republic of Iran," Rouhani told a large crowd in Tehran. He did not elaborate.

Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said the developments in Yemen "have increased stability in the region and made the situation difficult for terrorists in that country". The chief of staff of Iran's military, Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, said Sanaa was now "one of the safest places in the region" after the Houthi takeover.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt are not new to military involvement in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia fought a brief border war against the Houthis in 2010 to halt incursions over the frontier. Egypt in the early 1960s deployed thousands of troops in Yemen to support a republican coup that toppled a monarchy subscribing to Zaydi Shiism, like the Houthis.

Houthi rebels seized the province of Bayda, south of Sanaa, on Tuesday with help from government forces still loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh, the autocratic president who was ousted in the country's 2011 Arab Spring uprising.

Bayda is widely viewed as the gateway to the country's south, but taking over that region is unlikely to be easy.

Hadi — a southerner — commands armed militias that fought Al Qaeda militants in the province of Abyan in 2011 and 2012. Moreover, a key political faction in the south, the Nasserists, have close ties with Egypt, whose intelligence and security agencies have stepped up their activities in the south in anticipation of a Houthi attempt to capture the region, according to the Egyptian officials.

The Houthis' advances are also fueling secessionist movements in the south, once a separate nation.

"They won't have a friendly environment in the south," said Baraa Shiban, a Yemeni analyst. "Any attempt by the Houthis to take over the south will lead to secession."

Houthis have captured territory largely because of deals with provincial powers and massive help from army and police units loyal to Saleh. Effective battlefield resistance against their advances might finally come in Marib or in the south.

"The Houthis are spoiling for a fight, thinking that a battlefield victory will grant them a measure of legitimacy," said Sarah Gamal, a Yemeni political activist. "So far, they have just been assaulting peaceful protesters in Sanaa and elsewhere who reject their rule."

Egypt frees two Al Jazeera journalists on bail

By - Feb 12,2015 - Last updated at Feb 12,2015

CAIRO — Two remaining Al Jazeera journalists jailed in Egypt on charges of aiding a "terrorist organisation" were freed on bail on Thursday after more than 400 days, but the court said the case against them was still pending.

The case triggered an international outcry and has been cited by government critics as evidence that Cairo is rescinding freedoms gained after a 2011 uprising toppled autocrat Hosni Mubarak, allegations the government denies.

Mohammed Fahmy, a naturalised Canadian who gave up his Egyptian citizenship, was released on bail of 250,000 Egyptian pounds ($32,765). Baher Mohamed, who has only Egyptian citizenship, was released without bail. Judge Hassan Farid said the next hearing in their case would be on February 23.

A third Al Jazeera reporter sentenced with them, Australian Peter Greste, was freed on February 1 and deported.

The three were sentenced to between seven and 10 years on charges including spreading lies to help a terrorist organisation — a reference to the Muslim Brotherhood.

The court's decision comes ahead of an investment conference in Sharm El Sheikh scheduled for March, which authorities hope will help improve Egypt's image, which has been damaged by one of the fiercest security crackdowns in its modern history.

President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi's human rights record has come under scrutiny since he, as army chief, toppled Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013 after mass protests against his rule. He says Egypt faces a tough, prolonged campaign against violent insurrectionists.

Sisi has said that he wished the journalists had been deported and not put on trial.

The courtroom erupted in applause after the judge read his decision.

Fahmy's fiancee, Marwa Omara, weeping and hugging journalists in the courtroom, said: "Thank you Egypt for doing the right thing... I am happy. For the last year I haven't been able to sleep."

Mohamed said on his Twitter account, @Bahrooz: "I AM FREE"

The ruling specified that neither man could leave the country while the case was ongoing.

A lawyer on Fahmy's team who declined to be identified said the court's decision to release two journalists "was an indication that the court is going to acquit them”.

Egyptian authorities accuse Qatar-based Al Jazeera of being a mouthpiece of the Muslim Brotherhood — the movement Sisi removed from power in 2013. Al Jazeera denies the allegations.

The network said the pair's release on bail was a "small step in the right direction" and called for their definitive release. 

Syrian rebel leader vows guerrilla war in south against Hizbollah, government

By - Feb 12,2015 - Last updated at Feb 12,2015

BEIRUT — A Syrian rebel commander in the south vowed to wage guerrilla warfare against the Lebanese group Hizbollah and Syrian government forces which have launched a major offensive against insurgents in the border region near Israel and Jordan.

The offensive that got under way this week is focused in an area south of Damascus that is the last notable foothold of the mainstream armed opposition to President Bashar Assad, who has consolidated control over much of western Syria.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the war, says the offensive is being spearheaded by Hizbollah, and that government forces and allied militia have made significant progress.

The Syrian army said on Wednesday that territory including four hills and three towns had been secured from insurgents it identified as members of the Al Qaeda-linked Al Nusra Front.

The mainstream rebels known collectively as the Southern Front are dismissive of Al Nusra's role in the area. The battle — the most serious effort to date by the state to take back the south — was mostly brought to a halt on Thursday by snow.

"The battle could be lengthy. It will be hit and run — this is the system we are going to use in battle," said Abu Osama Al Jolani, a senior commander in the southern rebel alliance.

"We are not a state army defending borders... we operate a system of guerrilla warfare. As far as we are concerned, land is not important," he added, speaking to Reuters via the Internet from an area near the Syrian-Jordanian border.

Jolani, who held the rank of major when he defected from the Syrian army in 2011, said advances made by the attacking forces were insignificant. He is now deputy commander of the "First Army", formed from three smaller rebel groups in January.

Rami Abdulrahman, who runs the observatory, said four days of fighting had killed 19 combatants on the government side and 48 on the opposition side. He said the advances by Hizbollah and the government should not be underestimated.

 

Hundreds of Hizbollah fighters

 

The Syrian defence minister visited the front line on Thursday, Hizbollah's Al Manar TV station reported.

The Southern Front rebel alliance includes groups that have received support from foreign states opposed to Assad. The support has included what the rebels describe as small amounts of military aid, including some US-made anti-tank missiles.

With much of the north and east held by jihadist groups including the powerful Islamic State, the southern rebels see themselves as the last bastion of the revolt against Assad that erupted in 2011 before descending into civil war.

The opposition complains that while the Syrian government has received vital military support from Assad's allies, including Hizbollah and Iran, Arab and Western states that want to see Assad gone have failed to do the same.

A Lebanese columnist close to Hizbollah wrote on Wednesday that the decision to launch the southern offensive had been taken several weeks ago at the highest levels of the "Resistance Axis" — a reference to Syria, Iran and Hizbollah.

The battle is being waged a short distance from the Israeli frontier on the Golan Heights, a sensitive area at the intersection of Syria, Lebanon and Israel.

An Israeli official briefed on intelligence said the current offensive "involves Hizbollah more heavily than in previous operations". "There are hundreds of their fighters involved," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Jolani said the Syrian army was playing no role in the battle. "This is a very important test for the Southern Front," he said. "We ask all the states of the world to help the Syrian people and to help us the way Iran and Russia help the regime."

Hizbollah in Syria fighting near Israeli lines — monitor

By - Feb 11,2015 - Last updated at Feb 11,2015

BEIRUT — Lebanon's Hizbollah, Syrian regime forces and Iranian officers fighting rebels in southern Syria have advanced to the edge of Israeli-occupied territory, a monitor and state media said Wednesday.

"Regime troops and their Hizbollah-led allies are advancing in the area linking Daraa, Quneitra and Damascus provinces," close to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

For the first time, Syrian state television acknowledged that President Bashar Al Assad's army is being backed by Hizbollah and Iranian officers in its fight against a nearly four-year rebellion.

"The operation launched by the Syrian army is being fought in cooperation with... Hizbollah and Iran," a Syrian army officer told state television.

Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP: "It's Hizbollah that is leading the attack on the southern front."

On January 18, six Hizbollah fighters and an Iranian general were killed in an Israeli air strike in Quneitra.

According to the Observatory, which estimates 5,000 Hizbollah fighters are deployed in Syria, pro-regime forces on Wednesday seized the village of Deir Maker in the west of Damascus province, near Quneitra.

The advance comes a day after they pushed rebels out of Deir Al Adas village and the surrounding hills.

The Observatory said the battle for Deir Al Adas, which had been out of regime control since January last year, killed 20 rebels.

The latest reports come four days after the Lebanese Shiite group and the Syrian army launched an offensive to reclaim swathes of territory held by the rebels in the south.

Nine regime troops have been killed in the fighting since Monday, the Observatory said.

Syria’s state SANA news agency meanwhile reported “advances as part of a vast operation by the army and armed groups”.

The assault near the armistice line on the Golan is aimed at “breaking the stretch of territory that they [rebels] are trying to establish” at the border, a Syrian security source said.

Syrian rebels and the Al Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusra Front had in recent months made sweeping gains in the south of the country.

Daraa and Quneitra are located near Damascus, the border with Jordan as well as the Golan Heights.

Thousands protest against Houthi rule in Yemen after embassies close

By - Feb 11,2015 - Last updated at Feb 11,2015

SANAA — Yemenis in the capital Sanaa and the central city of Taiz held the largest protests yet against a takeover by a Shiite Muslim militia group on Wednesday after the United States, Britain and France shut their embassies over security fears.

Hundreds massed in the capital against the Houthi fighters, who manned checkpoints and guarded government buildings they control. The militants, bedecked in tribal robes and automatic rifles, shot in the air and thrust daggers at the crowds opposing their rule.

Tens of thousands of people also carried banners and chanted anti-Houthi slogans in Taiz, which the militants have not taken.

The Iranian-backed Houthi movement has called its seizure of power a revolution and says it wants to rid the country of corruption and economic peril — though Yemen’s rich Sunni Muslim Gulf Arab neighbours say it is a coup.

Yemen had long been at the forefront of the US-led war against Al Qaeda, but the long-standing alliance between Washington and Sanaa appears to have ended for now.

The US ambassador and diplomatic staff left the embassy on Wednesday, local workers said, a day after Washington announced it was closing the mission. Embassy workers had already destroyed weapons, computers and documents, they added.

“Recent unilateral actions disrupted the political transition process in Yemen, creating the risk that renewed violence would threaten Yemenis and the diplomatic community in Sanaa,” US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said.

France and Britain announced the closure of their embassies on Wednesday, and German Embassy employees said the mission was getting rid of sensitive documents and would close soon. 

The Houthis, who overran Sanaa in September and formally took power last week, are stridently anti-American, and chant “death to America” at rallies.

Abdel Malik Al Ijri, a member of the Houthi movement’s political bureau, said on Facebook the decision to close the embassies was “not justified at all and comes in the context of pressure on our people”.

“Governments of brotherly and friendly countries in the near future will realise that it is in their interest to deal with the will of our people with due respect,” Al Ijri wrote.

He also dismissed a report from US embassy workers that the militants had seized more than 20 of their vehicles, saying they had been taken by airport authorities.

 

Houthi advance

 

Houthi forces advanced far into the south on Tuesday night, according to local officials, continuing their expansion of recent months which is raising fears of an all-out civil war.

Leaders and Sunni tribesmen in the southern and eastern regions, which the group has so far not seized, are arming themselves against their push and are in some cases making common cause with Yemeni Al Qaeda militants.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), one of the global militant group’s most powerful arms, has repeatedly bombed and attacked Houthi targets.

Other tribes from Yemen’s formerly independent south, which has clamoured for secession for almost a decade, vowed on Wednesday to repel any Houthi attack.

The Houthi forces are bolstered by army units widely believed to maintain loyalty to ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh — though he denies any link.

Saleh ruled the country for thirty-three years, balancing the competing interests for Yemen’s kaleidoscope of armed tribes, political bosses and militants — a feat he called “dancing on the heads of snakes”.

But he was eased out of power after “Arab Spring” protests against his rule in 2011 under a delicate transition plan drawn up by Yemen’s rich Sunni Gulf Arab neighbours — all of them opponents of the Houthis.

Those neighbours have called the Houthi takeover a coup. Saleh and his former ruling party have denied an attempt to settle old scores and reassert its control over the country through the Houthis.

The tenure of Saleh’s successor, Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi, was defined by gridlock among Yemen’s array of feuding parties. Hadi resigned last month along with his whole government after Houthi gunmen attacked his home.

Libyan factions hold UN-backed peace talks

By - Feb 11,2015 - Last updated at Feb 11,2015

TRIPOLI  — UN negotiators resumed talks on Wednesday with delegates from Libya's warring factions, holding separate meetings with rival parties in the latest attempt to end the OPEC oil producer's political crisis and broker a ceasefire.

Libya is caught up in a struggle between an internationally recognised government and a rival administration set up in Tripoli after an armed faction seized the capital last summer.

Both are backed by brigades of fighters who helped oust veteran leader Muammar Qadhafi in 2011 but have since turned against one another in a complex conflict involving tribes, former Qadhafi troops, Islamist militants and federalist forces.

UN special envoy Bernardino Leon met representatives of the rival governments in the southern town of Ghadames near the Algerian border. Both governments operate their own parliaments and armed forces in a conflict Western powers fear will slide into broader civil war.

The UN said Wednesday's talks had focused on an agenda and timetable for parties to work to an agreement, but it said more detailed negotiations would take place in coming days.

Previous talks held in Geneva last month made little progress because key representatives from the Tripoli-based government stayed away, demanding the dialogue be held in Libya.

The United Nations is first seeking a deal on a unified government, a ceasefire and getting armed groups out of Libya's main cities and key installations. But UN officials acknowledge these aims fall well short of ending the crisis.

Libya's two largest oil ports, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, with a combined capacity of around 600,000 barrels per day, have been shut by fighting since December, cutting off vital oil revenues and denting the economy.

Keeping any ceasefire or securing a lasting political agreement is complicated by Libya's fragmented politics. The rival factions are essentially loose confederations of different armed groups and political leaders whose loyalties are not always aligned.

Analysts also question whether the delegates attending the UN-backed talks will be able to bring on board hardliners among the armed groups on the ground who still believe they can gain more from fighting.

Sandstorm lashes Middle East, halting Suez traffic

By - Feb 11,2015 - Last updated at Feb 11,2015

Cairo — A fierce sandstorm lashed Egypt, Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday, forcing the closure of the Suez Canal and grounding domestic flights in Israel, officials said.

The skyline of Cairo was barely visible as dust blown in from the surrounding desert hung in the air and shrouded the Egyptian capital for a second day.

A few incoming flights were diverted to other airports in the country but most air traffic was normal, an airport official said.

But the Suez Canal southeast of Cairo was closed Wednesday, with 52 ships waiting to enter from the Red Sea as winds reached 74 kilometres per hour, officials told AFP.

Traffic would resume once the storm subsides, the officials said.

The health ministry advised Egyptians to wear masks when leaving their homes.

In neighbouring Israel, the domestic carrier Arkia said it had grounded flights for several hours until 1400 GMT because of bad weather.

No end to Middle East strife without Iran — Rouhani

By - Feb 11,2015 - Last updated at Feb 11,2015

TEHRAN — Iran's president said Wednesday that the world needs its help to stabilise a troubled Middle East, in remarks pointing to the wider ramifications of a deal over Tehran's disputed nuclear programme.

In a live televised speech marking the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution, Hassan Rouhani implicitly linked ongoing nuclear talks with world powers to resolving bloody conflicts in Iraq and Syria.

Significant gaps remain between Iran and the United States and other leading nations on specific measures to end a 12-year stand-off on the nuclear issue, but both sides are pushing for a deal.

And although Iranian and US officials have said the turmoil gripping the Middle East falls outside the remit of negotiations, analysts say both governments acknowledge an agreement could have a broader impact.

"If there is going to be peace and stability in the region, and terrorism is to be uprooted, there is no other way than with the presence of the Islamic Republic of Iran," Rouhani said.

A huge crowd filled Azadi [Freedom] Square in Tehran to hear the Iranian president commemorate the tumultuous events that ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi from power 36 years ago.

The fall of the shah was followed months later by the storming of the US embassy in Tehran by Islamist students, culminating in American diplomats being held prisoner.

The crisis, which lasted 444 days, caused US-Iranian diplomatic relations to be severed and it ushered in deep distrust which persists to this day.

This year's anniversary was the second to coincide with an intense diplomatic effort to end the nuclear deadlock but the first since jihadists of the Islamic State (IS) group seized large parts of Iraq and Syrian territory.

 

Nuclear agreement 'win-win'

 

When IS overran northern Iraq in June, predominantly Shiite Iran provided weapons and assistance to Kurdish fighters and sent military advisers to Baghdad.

Iran has also backed Syrian President Bashar Assad in his battle against rebels, including jihadists.

Referring to the fight against IS as well as longstanding instability in Yemen and Lebanon, Rouhani said Iran was playing a leading regional role.

"You've seen in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen that the power that could help those nations against terrorist groups was the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said.

Rouhani then raised the issue of the nuclear talks and the lifting of sanctions imposed on Iran for pursuing its atomic programme.

"What we are offering is to reach a win-win agreement in which Iran will show transparency in its peaceful nuclear activities," he said.

"And the other side must end its wrong, inhumane and illegal sanctions. This is in the interest of both sides. They too need this."

An interim agreement in November 2013 saw Iran agree to curb some nuclear activities in exchange for limited relief from Western sanctions, but two deadlines for a comprehensive deal have been missed.

The political outline of an agreement is now due by March 31 and the final accord by June 30.

Western governments have long suspected Iran of covertly pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, allegations denied by Tehran, which insists its activities are for energy production only.

The interim deal and subsequent talks stand in stark contrast to eight years of stalled negotiations and escalating sanctions under Rouhani's hardline predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Rouhani has the support of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but hardliners in Tehran regularly argue Iran has already conceded too much by accepting limits on its nuclear programme.

Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif have also come under fire at home for their overtures to the United States, long derided as the "Great Satan".

On Wednesday, as is customary at major rallies, US, British and Israeli flags were burned.

And in a nod to the Islamic republic's origins, Rouhani said nothing could diminish its characteristics.

"The roots and principles of the revolution remain unchangeable," he said.

Zarif, also at Azadi Square, said what was needed for a historic nuclear agreement was political will from the major powers.

Decade after Hariri murder, Lebanon flounders in Syria’s shadow

By - Feb 11,2015 - Last updated at Feb 11,2015

BEIRUT — A decade after former prime minister Rafiq Hariri was assassinated, hopes that the fallout from his death would free Lebanon from Syria's influence have been dashed by the war raging across the border.

"Ten years, 100 years, 1,000 years, we will stay faithful to you" declare the billboards going up around Beirut as the country prepares to mark the February 14, 2005, murder of Hariri.

In the months that followed, a popular movement that accused Damascus of his killing forced Syrian troops out of Lebanon after a 30-year presence.

Many in the country saw the Syrian withdrawal as a chance for Lebanon to shake off the influence of its larger neighbour and its perpetual status as a pawn in wider regional struggles.

Yet the Lebanese public and analysts now see little cause for hope, with Syria's civil war deepening divisions that emerged after Hariri's death.

Lebanon is fractured between Hizbollah-led supporters of President Bashar Assad and his regional ally Iran, and a camp that backs the Syrian uprising and is allied with Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Hariri had close links to Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, which vies with Shiite Iran for influence in the Middle East.

After the assassination "Lebanon entered the orbit of Damascus, Tehran and Hizbollah, and this axis continues to prevail," said Daoud Al Sayegh, a former adviser to Hariri.

The division is at the root of ongoing instability, including a string of bomb attacks that have targeted both sides.

It has also contributed to a political stalemate that has left the country without a president for eight months, the longest such vacuum since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war.

On the country's borders, the under-equipped Lebanese army is struggling to keep jihadists from Syria at bay, and in the streets residents fear the next conflict is around the corner.

"The country has collapsed since Hariri's assassination," said a resident of Beirut's Ain Al Mreisse district, where Hariri and 22 others were killed by a suicide bomber in a car.

Far from bringing together the country and freeing it of Syrian influence, analysts say the decade since Hariri's death has served to cement the preeminence of the Shiite movement Hizbollah, a key ally of Damascus.

"This murder has had the effect of a coup d'etat," said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University in Beirut.

Hariri "represented the Saudi project, and with him gone, it's the Iranian project that has taken over".

 

'Syria never forgave him' 

 

Khashan said Hariri had sought to "transform the country into a symbol of moderation and a safeguard against extremism".

"He was assassinated before he could do that," he said.

Nicknamed "Mr Lebanon", Hariri was known for his patience and "represented a moderate Sunni Muslim current", Khashan added.

"After his murder, extremist Sunnis began to appear" in Lebanon, he said.

Hariri served as prime minister under Syrian influence from 1992 to 1998 and again from 2000 to 2004.

He was vehemently opposed to Damascus’ imposed extension of president Emile Lahoud's term in 2004, but was coerced into voting for it.

Angered by Hariri's opposition, Assad reportedly threatened to "destroy Lebanon on top of his head".

With the support of Riyadh and his close friend French former president Jacques Chirac, Hariri backed a UN Security Council resolution calling on foreign troops to leave Lebanon.

"The Syrians never forgave him," Khashan said.

"Hariri put Lebanon on the international map, and that angered them," added former adviser Sayegh.

In a first for Lebanon, the frequent scene of political assassinations and intrigue, Hariri's murder is being prosecuted before the Special Tribunal for Lebanon at the Hague.

The court has indicted five Hizbollah members for their involvement, but the movement has refused to turn them over, accusing the tribunal of being an "Israeli-American tool".

In the months after Hariri's assassination, the murder was seen as a sort of "founding event for the unity of the country", according to Fares Souaid, a member of the movement that emerged against the Syrian regime after the ex-premier's murder.

But "10 years later, we are seeing the weakening of the state and communities returning back behind their barricades".

Several events will be held in Beirut to mark the anniversary including a gathering at the site of the attack, where a flame will be lit in his honour, and a prayer at his tomb.

Hariri was often criticised for marrying politics and business and running up huge debts in his reconstruction projects.

But he also attracted investors, many of whom now shy away from Lebanon because of the violence, instability and spillover from the Syrian war that followed his death.

"The Lebanese are unable to free themselves from a situation where they are hostages of the region's conflict," said Sayegh.

20,000 foreign fighters head to Syria — US

By - Feb 11,2015 - Last updated at Feb 11,2015

WASHINGTON — Foreign fighters are flocking to Syria at an "unprecedented" rate, with more than 20,000 volunteers from around the world joining the Islamic State (IS) or other extremist groups, US intelligence officials said Tuesday.

The foreign fighters have travelled to Syria from more than 90 countries, including at least 3,400 from Western states and more than 150 Americans, according to the latest estimate from the National Counter-Terrorism Centre (NCTC).

A majority of the foreign volunteers who arrived recently have joined forces with the IS group in Syria and Iraq, it said.

The estimate of the total number of foreign fighters flocking to Syria was up from a previous estimate in January of roughly 19,000, according to NCTC.

No precise numbers are available "but the trend lines are clear and concerning". Nicholas Rasmussen, NCTC director, said in prepared remarks for a congressional hearing on Wednesday.

"The rate of foreign fighter travel to Syria is unprecedented. It exceeds the rate of travellers who went to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, or Somalia at any point in the last 20 years," he said.

The volunteers come from a range of backgrounds and "do not fit any one stereotype", Rasmussen said.

"The battlefields in Iraq and Syria provide foreign fighters with combat experience, weapons and explosives training, and access to terrorist networks that may be planning attacks which target the West," he said.

Western governments have voiced increasing alarm over the flow of foreign volunteers heading to the Syrian conflict, particularly in the aftermath of jihadist attacks in Paris that left 17 dead.

In the months-long battle for the Syrian town of Kobani near the Turkish border, large numbers of foreign fighters were among the jihadists killed, according to US officials.

Kurdish forces, backed up by US-led air strikes, eventually succeeded in fending off an attempt by the IS group to seize Kobani.

 

Propaganda appeals 

 

The IS militants are able to recruit new volunteers partly because of their savvy use of propaganda on social media, producing videos and appeals in a range of languages, Rasmussen said.

Apart from grisly images of murders of hostages and battlefield executions, the group also tries to reach alienated youth by promoting images of a welcoming, "bucolic" life in their self-declared caliphate, he said.

Catering to a younger, thrill-seeking audience, the IS jihadists employ references to Western brands and popular video games, he said.

"They have also coined pithy 'memes' such as, 'YODO: You Only Die Once. Why not make it martyrdom?'"

Al Qaeda and its branches in the Middle East and Africa have never displayed such an acumen with propaganda, he added.

The NCTC director's prepared testimony for the House Homeland Security Committee, which holds a hearing on Wednesday, was released to AFP on Tuesday.

There was no single route the foreign fighters travel to reach Syria, but most eventually pass through Turkey "because of its geographic proximity to the Syrian border areas", he said.

The recruits have taken advantage of Turkey's visa-free travel arrangements with about 69 governments, including with European Union states, the director said.

Turkey has bolstered its effort to stem the flow and deny entry to potential foreign fighters. The country now has a travel ban list that includes some 10,000 people.

But while Turkey and other European countries have strengthened border controls and taken other steps, "significant work remains" to prevent volunteers from heading to Syria or to stop them from returning, he said.

In the end, the only way to counter extremist threats and the IS group is to "diminish the appeal of terrorism and dissuade individuals from joining them in the first place", Rasmussen said.

In a statement for Wednesday's hearing, the Republican chairman of the House committee, Michael McCaul, said he was "worried about our ability to combat this threat abroad, but also here at home".

The threat of homegrown extremism, in which individuals inspired by Islamist propaganda are motivated to launch attacks, also remains cause for concern but has not intensified, he said.

The NCTC believes the annual threat of homegrown violence could result in fewer than 10 "uncoordinated and unsophisticated" plots in the United States from a pool of up to a few hundred people, he said.

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