Region

ANKARA — Turkey inaugurated a $10 billion project to pipe Azeri gas to Western markets on Tuesday, forging ahead with a plan which could help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian energy even as Moscow touts its own alternative.

The Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) aims to carry 16 billion cubic metres of gas a year by mid-2018 from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz II field in the Caspian Sea, one of the world's largest gas fields developed by a BP-led consortium.

The 1,850km pipeline will stretch from Turkey's border with Georgia to Greece and is key to Turkey's ambition to cut its own dependence on Russian gas.

Ankara raised its stake in the project to 30 per cent last year. Azeri state-oil firm SOCAR holds 58 per cent, while BP has the remaining 12 per cent.

"We plan to establish Turkey as the energy distribution hub of the region," President Tayyip Erdogan said at a ground breaking ceremony in the northeastern city of Kars.

Facing objections from the EU, Russia abandoned its $40 billion South Stream project through which it aimed to deliver gas to Europe while bypassing Ukraine. Moscow surprised the block by proposing a new undersea pipeline, dubbed "Turkish Stream".

Ankara's response to the project, which envisages piping gas to a hub on the Turkish-Greek border, has been lukewarm. Energy officials have said TANAP remains their priority.

"TANAP has a special importance because of its route and its goal and is not an alternative project to others and there is not an alternative to it," Erdogan said.

Initially, Turkey will buy the first 6 bcm per year of gas from TANAP. A further 10 bcm will be delivered to Europe once it is connected to the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) by 2020. By 2023, TANAP's capacity will rise to 23 bcm per year and then to 31 bcm by 2026, according to project executives.

Caught off guard by Russia's surprise decision to ditch South Stream and its proposal to work with Turkey to build an alternative route, the European Union has repeatedly urged Moscow not to exclude it from the plans.

"When we speak about some big supplies for European customers, you cannot adopt such a decision without talking to them, without talking to the EU and without talking to the European Commission," Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission's vice president in charge of Energy Union said at a press briefing in Ankara on Monday evening.

SANAA — The Shiite Muslim Houthis, who control much of Yemen, have removed the air force chief for refusing to provide them with air support and replaced him with a general who is closer to their group, military officials said.

The move shines a light on the divisions in Yemen's shattered military as the Iran-backed Houthis and embattled President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi vie for control.

Hadi fled Houthi house arrest last month and re-established his presidency in the southern port of Aden, while the Houthis control Sanaa. The United Nations, which is brokering talks between the two sides, has warned of imminent civil war.

Major General Rashid Al Jund along with the air force's chief of staff was dismissed on Monday and placed under investigation by the Supreme Security Council, a body formed by the Houthis after they seized Sanaa, the military sources said.

He was replaced by Brigadier General Khader Salem, whom the officials said was more sympathetic to the Houthis.

Houthi officials did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for a comment.

The advance of the group into the capital in September and to other regions, mainly in central and eastern Yemen, has been met with resistance from armed Sunni tribes, some of whom are backed by Al Qaeda militants.

Dozens from both sides have died in fighting for the central province of Al Bayda, and the Houthis have been targeted by bombings of Sunni Islamist militants including Al Qaeda, who consider the Houthis heretics.

The strong Al Qaeda presence in Yemen makes it an international security concern, particularly as it borders on top oil exporter Saudi Arabia and major shipping lanes.

While the Houthis say they are waging a revolution against corrupt officials and their lackeys, Yemen's powerful Gulf Arab neighbours call their takeover a coup supported by Shiite power Iran. Tehran denies backing the Houthis.

LAUSANNE — The US hunkered down Tuesday with Iran for crunch talks while warning that key disagreements remain ahead of a March 31 deadline to agree the outlines of a major nuclear deal.

"There is no way around it, we still have a ways to go," a senior US official involved in the talks in the Swiss lakeside city of Lausanne said Tuesday.

The deal being sought by US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart will, they hope, convince the world that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons under the guise of its civilian programme.

The Islamic republic, which has seen its relations with the West thaw somewhat since President Hassan Rouhani replaced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2013, strenuously denies wanting the bomb.

The accord would involve Iran agreeing to scale down its nuclear activities to within strict limits in return for relief from sanctions suffocating its economy.

If they manage it and the accord holds, both sides hope it will end a 12-year stand-off and potentially help normalise Iran's international relations at a particularly volatile time in the Middle East.

"Iran still needs to make some very tough and necessary choices to address the significant concerns that remain about its nuclear programme," a second US official said Monday.

"We're trying to get there. But quite frankly, we still do not know if we will be able to," the official said, likening the months of negotiations to a "rollercoaster".

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Kerry held almost five hours of talks on Monday before Zarif went to and from Brussels — while Kerry went for a bike ride — to meet European foreign ministers and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini.

Zarif and Kerry met again on Tuesday morning. Political directors from the other five powers involved — Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany — began arriving in Lausanne on Tuesday and were due to meet on Wednesday, the EU said.

US lawmakers 

Critics in the United States and in Iran's arch foe Israel, widely assumed to have nuclear weapons itself, fear that the mooted restrictions on Iran's nuclear programme won't go far enough.

In Washington a political storm is raging with 47 Republican senators last week writing to Iran's leaders telling them that Congress could alter any deal and that a future president could tear it up.

US President Barack Obama, a Democrat, is also fighting to stop the Republicans bringing new legislation that would force him to submit any deal to Congress for approval.

In Iran though, parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani said Monday that lawmakers would not block any deal as long as it is approved by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"We don't have problems like those in the United States," Larijani said.

Two deadlines to get a deal in July and November were missed but the Obama administration can hardly afford to extend yet again.

What might emerge in Lausanne by the end of the month — or possibly this week — is unclear, but a "concrete understanding" is crucial, expert Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group told AFP.

"If there is an agreement [this month] I don't see how it can be meaningful without some quantitive measures," the first US official said.

 Complex deal 

Officials on both sides say that some progress has been made in what would be a highly complex agreement, but that crucial gaps remain.

These include the scale of Iran's uranium enrichment capacities — which can make nuclear fuel but also the core of a bomb — the accord's duration and the pace at which sanctions on Iran would be lifted.

"We need clarity on the way in which sanctions will be lifted and what the guarantees will be for applying the deal," Zarif said Sunday.

GENEVA — UN investigators have begun sharing details from their secret database on suspected war crimes in Syria with European authorities pursuing domestic court cases, they said on Tuesday.

The move could pave the way for perpetrators of killings, torture and atrocities on all sides to be brought to account. The aim is to sidestep the UN Security Council, where Russia and China have prevented abuse cases being sent to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for prosecution.

Paulo Pinheiro, chairman of the United Nations' commission of inquiry, urged national authorities to contact the independent investigators who have compiled five confidential lists over nearly four years.

Pinheiro and his team, which includes former UN war crimes prosecutor Carla del Ponte, said last month they planned to publish names of suspects and push for new ways to bring them to justice.

But it stopped short on Tuesday of releasing the lists.

"We can best aid the pursuit of justice at this time through targeted disclosure. We will share names and information about specific alleged perpetrators with state prosecution authorities that are preparing cases to be heard before a competent and impartial judiciary," Pinheiro told the Human Rights Council.

Karen Koning AbuZayd, an American expert on the UN panel, told reporters: "We have responded to requests about incidents for example by using our data base. Of course it's a large data base... and much more interesting really than a list."

Three European countries have sought cooperation so far, AbuZayd said, declining to be specific. The UN panel had not shared information on any individual perpetrator. Del Ponte said requests for cooperation were "mainly about foreign fighters".

More than 200,000 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict, which began in 2011 with peaceful protests against the rule of President Bashar Assad and mushroomed into civil war that has driven out 3.9 million refugees.

The investigators say their lists, kept in a UN safe, include military and security commanders and commanders of insurgent groups, and arose from interviews with 3,800 victims and witnesses.

Syrian Ambassador Hussam Edin Aala rejected what he called the "biased and selective approach" of UN investigators and said they had ignored crimes by Islamist insurgent groups.

DUBAI — Torn between a north controlled by Shiite rebels and a south dominated by the embattled president's allies, Yemen is mired in a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, analysts say.

The struggle threatens to push the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state further towards the abyss as the Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide grows wider.

Amid the chaos, Al-Qaeda militants are closing ranks with tribes of fellow Sunni Muslims to counter the expansion of the Shiite Houthi rebels.

In an unprecedented show of force, the Iran-backed Houthis, who overran the capital Sanaa unopposed in September, last week staged military exercises near the border with Sunni-heavyweight Saudi Arabia.

"In the face of Iran's Shiite expansionism, Sunni solidarity is building, led by Saudi Arabia," one diplomat who requested anonymity told AFP.

The kingdom to the north has always played a prominent role in Yemeni politics.

It hosted negotiations that helped end a year of deadly nationwide protests and led to a deal that eased out president Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2012.

And following a request by President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi, Riyadh is again poised to broker talks aimed at ending Yemen’s latest political impasse.

When Hadi fled Houthi-imposed house arrest in Sanaa in February and resurfaced in Aden, Saudi Arabia was the first country to transfer its embassy there, in an open display of support for the beleaguered leader.

Tehran warning

Tehran has openly denounced moves to make the southern port Yemen’s temporary capital.

“Sanaa is the official and historical capital of Yemen and those in Aden who back disintegration or civil war are responsible for the consequences,” Iran’s deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said last week.

He charged that Hadi, who once he reached Aden retracted a resignation tendered under duress in Sanaa, “would have done better to stay in Sanaa and keep to his resignation letter and not lead the country into crisis”.

April Longley Alley, Yemen specialist at the International Crisis Group, argues that Tehran has received a “huge political return for very little investment”.

“As Saudi Arabia hardens its stance against the Houthis and seeks to roll back their gains, the Houthis are likely to seek closer ties with countries like Iran,” she said.

This Tehran-Riyadh struggle is “both complicating and amplifying conflict in Yemen”, she said.

Saudi Arabia fears that the Houthis, who swept down from the north and expanded the area they control to the shores of the Red Sea, now have their sights set on the strategic Bab Al Mandab strait.

This would give Iran proxy control over the key waterway to and from the Suez Canal, adding to its already strong presence in the Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz through which much of the world’s oil passes.

Saudi switch

Fearing the rise of extremist Sunni Islamists, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, Riyadh stopped backing Yemen’s Al Islah (Reform) Party, thus giving the Houthis the upper hand, according to Lina Khatib, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre.

“At one point Saudi Arabia favoured a Houthi domination [along the border] instead of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its role in Yemen then diminished, encouraging the Houthis to advance” south and seize large amounts of territory within weeks, she said.

The Houthi-run Saba news agency reported on Thursday that Iran will provide Yemen with crude oil for one year, and also establish a 165-megawatt power plant.

The agreement was made during a Houthi visit to the Islamic republic after an Iranian commercial flight landed in Sanaa on March 1 — the first in many years and the fruit of an aviation accord with Tehran.

The Houthis insist that Iran does not meddle in Yemeni affairs.

“We’ve said it clearly: we reject all interference in our internal affairs, whether from Saudi Arabia, Iran or the United States,” Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam told AFP.

He accused Saudi Arabia of seeking to “create chaos” in Yemen.

“The risk of civil war or partition in Yemen” is increasingly raised in political circles, Khatib said.

Mohammad Sadeh Sadqian, head of the Centre for Arab Studies in Tehran, warned that the Saudi-Iran struggle for influence, already clear in Iraq and Syria, could have consequences elsewhere.

The struggle “could engulf other countries” if Riyadh and Tehran “do not sit around one table and discuss openly all points of dispute,” he said.

DAMASCUS/BRUSSELS — Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad said Monday he was waiting for action from Washington after Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledged talks with Damascus were necessary to end the country’s conflict.

The weekend remarks by the top US envoy were quickly clarified by his spokeswoman, who said Washington’s policy was unchanged and Assad had no role in Syria’s future.

But in Damascus, local media touted Kerry’s statement as a reversal of US policy, and Assad said he was waiting to see whether they would be followed by action.

“We are still listening to the comments and we have to wait for the actions and then we’ll decide,” the Syrian leader told Iranian television in remarks carried by Syrian state media.

Assad has long accused Washington of “supporting terrorism” because of its backing for the Syrian opposition, and repeated Monday that any shift in policy required an end to that.

“We have no choice but to defend our country,” he added.

“Any international changes that come about within that framework are something positive, if they are honest and have an effect on the ground.”

‘We have to negotiate’ 

Assad was speaking after Kerry said in an interview broadcast Sunday that Washington could negotiate with Assad.

“Well, we have to negotiate in the end,” the US envoy said, when asked by CBS television if he would negotiate with Assad.

Kerry stressed that any negotiations would be in the context of the Geneva communiqué.

The document, produced after 2012 peace talks, calls for a transitional governing body with full executive powers, but makes no mention of Assad’s future.

Syria’s government insists Assad’s departure from office is not up for discussion, but the opposition and its backers say he can have no role in the country’s future after a bloody four-year civil war.

Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on Monday rejected any role for Assad in Syrian peace talks, saying it would be a “scandalous gift” to Daesh terror group.

“The solution is a political transition which would preserve regime institutions, not Mr Bashar Al Assad. Any other solution which would keep Mr Assad in the saddle would be an absolutely scandalous, gigantic gift to Daesh,” Fabius said in Brussels.

“The millions of Syrians who have been persecuted by Assad would transfer their support to Daesh. Obviously that must be avoided.”

The French minister said he had spoken to Kerry on Monday morning and that the top US diplomat “assured me that there was absolutely nothing new in the American position on Syria.”

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said that she understood Kerry was referring to the Syrian regime and not Assad.

“I don’t think he was referring to Assad himself... but to the regime,” she told a press conference after a meeting with EU foreign ministers.

In his interview, Kerry made no reference to Assad’s future, but said pressure was being applied on the leader to bring him to the negotiating table.

Syrian media on Monday described the remarks as evidence of the “failure” of Washington’s Syria policy, saying Washington was acknowledging Assad would not be ousted militarily.

“Facing a fait accompli, the American administration has backed down and recognised the need to reposition its policy on the Syria crisis,” wrote Al Watan, which is close to the government.

‘Recognising Assad’s legitimacy’ 

“This is a new recognition of President Assad’s legitimacy, his key role and his popularity, and the resulting necessity of negotiating with him,” the daily said.

The newspaper suggested Kerry’s comments could pave the way for American participation in talks on the conflict hosted by Russia next month.

Moscow, a key Assad ally, is seeking to sponsor its own peace initiative, but there has been no indication of whether the US-backed Syrian opposition will attend the April 6 talks.

Kerry’s comments drew consternation from some in the Syrian opposition.

Samir Nashar, a member of the US-backed Syrian opposition National Coalition, said the remarks appeared to be a “test”.

“They are an intentional test to see the reactions of Syrians and of countries that support the Syrian revolution,” he told AFP.

Nashar said the statement had “blurred the American position”.

“America used to say that Assad had to step down... But now, Kerry has adopted this ambiguity that keeps Assad afloat in any political solution.”

Kerry’s remarks come after CIA head John Brennan also warned that Washington feared a chaotic collapse of Syria’s government could usher in an Islamist takeover.

On the ground, activists said Kerry’s remarks were unsurprising.

“From the beginning, the Americans abandoned the revolution, and they prove it more each day,” said Abu Adel, an activist in the rebel Jubar area outside Damascus.

“We cannot accept Assad staying on after the deaths of tens of thousands of martyrs,” he added.

Many in the Syrian opposition have been angered by Washington’s shift in focus from their cause to the fight against Daesh terror group.

ERBIL/BAGHDAD — Iraq said on Monday it had put its Tikrit offensive on hold and senior officials called for more air strikes to dislodge Daesh militants, while a Kurdish officer said his forces were exposed to two further chlorine gas attacks by the insurgents.

General Aziz Waisi told journalists the insurgents used chlorine in a December attack on his military police brigade in the Sinjar mountain area, and twice during a January offensive west of Mosul, including a January 23 attack described by Kurdish authorities on Saturday.

Waisi said a number of military police — he did not say how many — were taken to hospital, where blood tests indicated they had inhaled chlorine gas released by the bombs.

"When it exploded we realised it was not a normal smoke because it caused unconsciousness and vomiting," he said, describing one incident, when peshmerga blew up a vehicle driven by a suspected would-be suicide bomber.

He declined to say whether samples from the two previously unreported attacks had been tested at an international laboratory along with those from the January 23 attack.

The Dutch-based Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said over the weekend it had not had a request from Iraq to investigate claims of chemical weapons use and said the group could not immediately verify the claims.

Iraq's Kurds were the victims of the deadliest chemical attack of modern times when Saddam Hussein's air force bombed the town of Halabja in 1988, killing at least 5,000 people.

Tikrit pause

In Tikrit, military officials said there was no fighting on Monday. Daesh insurgents who control large parts of north and west Iraq and territory in neighbouring Syria have managed to hold onto central districts of Saddam's home city and have laid explosives to hold up the advancing forces.

The offensive by Iraqi security forces and mainly Shiite militia is their largest yet against Daesh, but the campaign stalled on Friday after they pushed into Tikrit last week.

Government forces are in control of most of the northern Qadisiya district as well as the southern and western outskirts of the city, trapping the militants in an area bounded by the river that runs along Tikrit's eastern edge.

"We need air support from any force that can work with us against IS [Daesh]," Deputy Minister of Defence Ibrahim Al Lami told Reuters, declining to say whether he meant from the US-led coalition or Iran, which is playing a role in the assault.

The US-led coalition, which has launched air strikes on Daesh positions in Iraq and Syria since last August, has been conspicuously absent from the offensive.

Powerful militia commander Hadi Al Amiri, head of the Shiite paramilitary Badr Organisation, said earlier in the offensive that militia victories before the Tikrit battle had been won without coalition air support.

Interior Minister Mohammed Al Ghaban said authorities had put a temporary halt to the offensive in Tikrit, capital of the mainly Sunni Muslim Salahuddin province.

“We have decided to halt military operations in Salahuddin in order to reduce casualties among our heroic forces... and to preserve the remaining infrastructure,” he said at a news conference in the city of Samarra, 95 kilometres north of Baghdad.

“The situation is under control and we will choose the appropriate time to attack the enemy and liberate the area”.

Kurdish advance

More than 20,000 troops and Iranian-backed Shiite militia are taking part in the operation, which began two weeks ago, supported by a relatively small contingent of Sunni fighters from Tikrit and the surrounding Salahuddin province.

The assault is seen as a litmus test for plans to retake the large northern city of Mosul, which is likely to be a far more complex operation.

Meanwhile, coalition air strikes helped Kurdish forces seize the villages of Wahda, Saada, and Khalid from Daesh in the north — part of a broader week-long offensive to drive the militants away from the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

Shiite Turkmen fighters also clashed for a fourth day with Daesh insurgents near the village of Bashir, south of Kirkuk.

In Baghdad, US presidential envoy General John Allen addressed a meeting of Iraqi and foreign officials aimed at kicking off efforts to stabilise and rebuild territories retaken from Daesh.

The militants have been driven back by Kurdish peshmerga forces in the north, and Shiite militia known as Hashid Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation) in the eastern province of Diyala, the Baghdad belt and north of the capital.

Allen said Iraqis were beginning to recover from life under Daesh in Diyala and “hopefully soon” in Tikrit, but that local governance would prove difficult because many officials had been killed, were in exile, or co-operated with Daesh.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi’s spokesman Rafid Al Jaboori echoed calls for more air strikes: “We have been saying we need more air support for all operations,” he told Reuters. “We welcome air support for all our campaigns against Daesh”.

BRUSSELS — EU foreign ministers gave the green light Monday for the bloc to prepare a possible security mission in Libya once the country's warring factions agree a national unity government.

"As soon as there is an agreement on a government of national unity and related security arrangements, the EU stands ready to enhance its support to Libya and contribute to the successful implementation of the agreements," they said in a statement after meeting in Brussels.

They said they had asked EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini "to present as soon as possible proposals on possible Common Security and Defence Policy activities in support of the security arrangements".

The EU's Common Security policy is meant to coordinate member state security efforts, allowing the bloc to mount small assistance operations such as in the Balkans and in Central Africa to help with local policing and security problems.

Mogherini has pressed hard for progress on the issue, highlighting the threats to European security of the Daesh terror group gaining a foothold in Libya and an even bigger exodus of illegal immigrants.

Many of the European Union’s 28 member states however remain wary of getting embroiled in a country which has descended into chaos since Britain and France led NATO efforts to oust long-time dictator Muammar Qadhafi in 2011.

Mogherini told reporters she would brief an EU leaders’ summit later this week on the proposals and aimed to present concrete steps when foreign ministers meet again in April.

EU diplomatic sources said before Monday’s meeting that Mogherini wanted to get the ball rolling so the bloc could move quickly if need be but most member states wanted to avoid any military entanglement.

At the same time, they recognised that there was no other option but to do everything possible to get the warring parties to agree and then support any accord they reached in the hope of stabilising the country.

OCCUPIED JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday there would be no Palestinian state if he were re-elected, in a last-ditch effort to woo right-wing voters on the eve of a general elections.

Polling stations are to open at 0500 GMT on Tuesday for Israel's second snap general elections in as many years in a ballot experts agree is likely to be a referendum on the Netanyahu years.

With his right-wing Likud trailing the centre-left Zionist Union in the final polls, Netanyahu said that if his rivals were elected security would be compromised and they would give up total Israeli control over Jerusalem.

"We will continue to build to fortify Jerusalem so its division will not be possible and it will remain united forever," he said on a tour of Har Homa, a settlement neighbourhood of annexed East Jerusalem.

Netanyahu, who is seeking a third consecutive term in office, vowed he would never allow the Palestinians to establish a capital in the city’s eastern sector and pledged to build “thousands” of settler homes.

The Palestinians want East Jerusalem as capital of their future state, and continued settlement building has incensed the international community, which sees it as an obstacle to peace.

Throughout his campaign, Netanyahu has repeatedly accused Zionist Union leaders Isaac Herzog and former peace negotiator Tzipi Livni of being ready to abandon Israel’s claim to Jerusalem as its indivisible capital.

But Netanyahu’s most bombastic statement came when he was asked by the rightwing NRG website if it was true that there would be no Palestinian state established if he was reelected.

“Indeed”, said Netanyahu, who in 2009 had endorsed the idea of two states living side by side.

He later told public radio that the two-state solution was now irrelevant, saying the “reality has changed” and “any territory which would be handed over would be taken over by radical Islamists”.

Security and Jerusalem 

Netanyahu has based his campaign solidly on security issues, notably the Iranian nuclear threat, giving short shrift to economic issues which have played a central role in centre-left campaigning.

“If Tzipi and Bougie set up the next government, Hamastan 2 will be established on these hills here,” he said in Har Homa, using the nickname of Labour leader Herzog.

“Hamastan” is a derogatory term used by Israeli politicians to refer to the Gaza Strip, which has been ruled by Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas since 2007.

On Sunday, Herzog dismissed Netanyahu’s jibes and pledged to “safeguard” Jerusalem “in actions, not just words, more than any other leader”.

Former prime minister and Labour leader Ehud Barak came out in support of Herzog, calling him “experienced and responsible” and someone who could be relied upon to ensure Israel’s safety.

Polls put Zionist Union ahead 

Despite Netanyahu’s vitriol, the Zionist Union is tipped to come out on top in the election.

Final opinion polls published late last week put the Zionist Union ahead with 25-26 seats with Netanyahu’s Likud taking 20-22 in the 120-seat Knesset.

But experts have warned about the reliability of the polls, pointing to the 2013 election when they completely failed to predict the level of support for centrist newcomer Yesh Atid.

“In all previous elections we had considerable differences between the predictions of the public opinion polls and [the results],” said Professor Avraham Diskin, a political scientist from Jerusalem’s Hebrew University.

“Yesh Atid didn’t get more than 10 or 11 seats in the public opinion polls and finally got twice as many — 19 seats.”

The leader of the party which secures most votes does not necessarily become the next Premier — as in 2009 when the centrist Kadima Party then headed by Livni effectively won the vote but lost the election in a race which brought Netanyahu to power for a second term.

“In 2009, [Likud] had a 100 per cent chance of forming a government while the leader of the largest party, Tzipi Livni, had no chance whatsoever — and therefore she was not nominated,” Diskin said.

Under Israel’s complex electoral system, the task of forming a new government does not automatically fall to the party with the largest number of votes, but to the MP or party leader with the best chance of cobbling together a coalition with a parliamentary majority of 61.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has also made overtures to centre-right Kulanu Party, seen as the elections’ kingmaker, offering the finance portfolio to its leader Moshe Kahlon who dismissed this as “spin”.

KUWAIT CITY — As many as 78 nations and 40 international organisations will attend the third donors conference aimed at raising billions of dollars for war-torn Syria, host country Kuwait said Monday.

The March 31 gathering at foreign ministers level will be opened by Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, a foreign ministry official told the KUNA news agency.

Nations are expected to announce pledges for UN humanitarian operations in Syria where 12 million people both inside and outside the country need urgent aid.

At the first and second conferences, also hosted by Kuwait, pledges of $1.5 billion and $2.4 billion were made, but the United Nations has complained that not all pledges were honoured.

Ahead of the conference, international non-governmental organisations are due to meet to make their own pledges.

Ban urged the Security Council on Thursday to overcome divisions and take action to end the war in Syria as the conflict entered its fifth year with little prospect for peace.

His appeal followed scathing criticism from 21 human rights and aid groups who accused world powers of "failing Syria" in a report that highlighted the worsening plight of civilians.

Last year was the war's deadliest yet, with at least 76,000 people killed out of a toll of more than 215,000 since it erupted on March 15, 2011, with peaceful demonstrations inspired by the Arab Spring in Tunisia.