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Halawani launches debate on industrial, commercial vision

By - Jul 18,2014 - Last updated at Jul 18,2014

AMMAN — The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Supply on Thursday held a meeting to discuss the future vision of the industry, trade and investment sectors.

The meeting was a step for preparing the 10-year economic blueprint the government is working on under Royal directives of His Majesty King Abdullah, according to a statement the ministry sent to The Jordan Times. 

Industry, Trade and Supply Minister Hatem Halawani said the blueprint the government is working on aims at achieving positive growth rates during the next 10 years, narrowing the budget deficit and maintaining the general debt rates under 60 per cent of the gross domestic product, providing job opportunities and increasing investment rates. 

All that can be achieved according to rates which all stakeholders agree on the possibility of attaining within the targeted 10 years, he remarked. 

Halawani asked institutions representing the private sector, such as industry and trade chambers, the Jordan Businessmen Association and the Association of Banks, to provide the ministry within a week with suggestions that may suit the blueprint; mechanisms that may contribute to its success; and their remarks on the suggestions included in the ministry’s future vision.

The minister also said that the ministry will work on inaugurating new markets for Jordanian exports, especially in Africa, to increase the Kingdom’s trade volume. 

The ministry will reconsider agreements that did not benefit the Jordanian economy and did not contribute to lowering the trade balance deficit, Halawani added.

He continued that Jordan’s classification in international economic indicators will be studied to examine the reasons for the decline in some indicators and to work on solutions to improve the Kingdom’s economic ranking on these reports. 

The minister noted that meetings will be held with each economic and service sector in order to agree on the future vision needed for the next 10 years and to set the targeted rate of contribution of  the sector to the aspired growth rate.

Report ranks Aqaba zone, estate among top 10 in Mideast

By - Jul 16,2014 - Last updated at Jul 16,2014

AMMAN — Aqaba Special Economic Zone (ASEZ) and Aqaba International Industrial Estate (AIIE) are among the top ten Middle East free zones of the future, according to a report by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Intelligence. 

Issued by the global largest FDI centre of excellence and a Financial Times insight,  the report assesses free zones’ abilities to attract FDIs.

According to the findings of the report, made available to The Jordan Times on Wednesday, most of the current investments in ASEZ are concentrated on tourism and real-estate sectors with the aim of “turning ASEZ into a world-class business hub and leisure destination on the Red Sea”.

AIIE has been successful in attracting companies involved in metals engineering, security industries, clean energy, food, consumer products, logistics, storage and services supporting major tourism projects, the report showed.

In the future, AIIE aspires to become a centre for development, assembly and marketing of clean energy systems and products, according to the report.

ASEZ and AIIE ranked 9th and 10th respectively in the listing with the Dead Sea Development Zone among the top 20.

The  assessment was made after inviting the free zones and investment entities charged with attracting FDIs to complete a survey based on the incentives, facilities and services each zone offers to investors. 

The FDI received 19 entries from free zones in the Middle East. The FDI also included eight entries submitted for the 2012/13 Global Free Zones of the Future ranking, including Ras Al Khaimah Investment Authority, Dubai Media City, Dubai Knowledge Village, Dubai International Academic City, Dubai Studio City, Dubai Healthcare City, Dubai Biotechnology and Research Park, and International Media Production Zone.

A panel of internal and external judges independently reviewed and ranked the entries, according to the FDI Intelligence report. 

Each judge gave a score for each of the 27 zones, based on economic potential, FDI incentives, facilities, cost-effectiveness, FDI promotion strategies, and transportation links, which were then combined to compile the results.

The ranking was based on the survey submitted by entrants. The judges assessed the information provided and combined it with their specialised knowledge of free zones.

Arab Bank Group midyear profit rises by 7%

By - Jul 16,2014 - Last updated at Jul 16,2014

AMMAN — Arab Bank Group announced Wednesday in a press statement that net profit after tax and provisions during the first half of 2014 grew by 7 per cent to $414.9 million from $387.3 million in the same period of last year.

According to the statement, loans and advances reached to  $23.7 billion, a 4 per cent increase over the $22.9 billion posted on June 30, 2013. Customer deposits were also higher by 5 per cent or $1.7 billion totalling $34.4 billion compared to $32.7 billion for the same period of the last year.

Sabih Masri, the chairman of Arab Bank, described the results as a substantiation of the bank’s ability to continue its positive performance through prudent management and better utilisation of resources.

Nemeh Sabbagh, the chief executive officer of  Arab Bank, said in the statement that the bank’s net interest income and commissions were higher by 3 per cent and 7 per cent respectively compared to the same period of the last year.

“The bank continues to maintain comfortable liquidity ratios as a strategic goal,” he added. “The loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 62.5 per cent and the group’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 14.15 per cent, well above the minimum required by the Central Bank of Jordan.”

Arab Bank received the award of Best Bank in Middle East for the year 2014 by New York-based Global Finance magazine. 

The banks’ results are subject to Central Bank of Jordan final approval.

Tourism revenues increase by 13.6% during first half of 2014

By - Jul 15,2014 - Last updated at Jul 15,2014

AMMAN — Tourism revenues went up by 13.6 per cent during the first half of this year to around $2.3 billion from $2 billion generated during the same period of 2013. According to the Central Bank of Jordan, the rise is attributed to higher income derived from religious and medical tourism. 

US recovery incomplete — Fed chief

By - Jul 15,2014 - Last updated at Jul 15,2014

WASHINGTON — The US economic recovery remains incomplete, with a still-ailing job market and stagnant wages justifying loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen told a Senate committee on Tuesday.

In a strong defence of the central bank's current stance, Yellen said early signs of a pickup in inflation aren't enough for the Fed to accelerate its plans for raising interest rates, a move currently expected in the middle of next year.

That could change, with interest rates rising sooner and faster, if data show labour markets improving more quickly than expected, she added.

But as it stands, "although the economy continues to improve, the recovery is not yet complete”, Yellen continued in semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, repeating her focus on lagging labour force participation and weak wage growth as key to any conclusions about the economy's health.

"Too many Americans remain unemployed," Yellen indicated.

 

 Fed relatively upbeat

 

Yellen presented a broad overview of an economy still in transition from the 2007-2009 economic crisis. 

In an accompanying report, the Fed said its balance sheet would top out at $4.5 trillion when its bond-buying programme ends in October, a sign of how much stimulus the central bank has had to unleash to support the economy.

With another $2.6 trillion held in reserve by banks, the report said it "will not be feasible" for the Fed to rely on the traditional Fed Funds market to manage interest rates — a judgement implicit in its recent work on new interest rate tools.

Yellen said the economy continues to generate jobs and steady growth, but she added that Fed policy makers currently expect their preferred measure of inflation to stand at between 1.5 per cent and 1.75 per cent for 2014, short of the central bank's 2 per cent target.

The housing market remains weak, Yellen noted, and business investment less than hoped.

Fed chiefs are mandated by law to report to Congress twice a year on monetary policy, and the hearing on Tuesday was Yellen's second such appearance. Her first turned into a marathon grilling about her philosophy and views of the economy.

The Fed faces a complex agenda as it weans the US economy from the massive stimulus programmes put in place to fight the financial crisis.

Economic data has kept Fed policy makers relatively upbeat that the economy will make steady progress towards the central bank's goals.

But there is also the potential for serious division.

Some policy makers worry the Fed is falling behind the curve on rate hikes and that Yellen is taking too much of an impromptu approach to the interest rate decision.

In her prepared testimony, she held firm to her view that low labour force participation and other labour market statistics are evidence of slack that needs to be absorbed by stronger job growth, not just a sign of unavoidable demographic change.

For now, a more dovish approach holds sway at the central bank, with several officials saying they'd tolerate inflation higher than the 2 per cent target for a period of time in order to ensure growth is on track, wages are rising, and as many workers as possible have been drawn back into jobs.

Responding to questions from committee members, she said it would be a "mistake" for the Fed to adopt a strict rule for raising interest rates, something advocated by some lawmakers and Fed officials. 

Also on Tuesday, the Fed voiced concern about stretched valuations in certain corners of the US equity markets, including the small cap, biotechnology and social media sectors.

The unusual comments from the Fed's monetary policy report — the first time in 14 years that the Fed has commented specifically on valuation of a particular equity sector — that accompanied Yellen's semi-annual testimony to Congress, hit stocks in riskier sectors of the market.

Yellen said in remarks to the Senate Banking Committee that valuations across equity markets remain generally in line with long-term averages, but the Fed's report said the forward price-to-earnings multiples for smaller companies and those in the biotechnology and social media sectors appear "high relative to historical norms".

Well-known names such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Yelp slipped after the news. Shares of Yelp Inc. were among the hardest hit, falling 4.3 per cent to $68.01 a share, and the Nasdaq Biotech Index also fell, losing 2 per cent.

"It's very unusual for the Fed chairman to take a microview of a specific industry group. Usually the comments are very top level. So I think the Fed is a little more in tune with what has been bothering the market. My thought is it's late, but not too late in terms of recognition," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

Throughout 2013, social media and biotechnology shares were among the market's most popular names, posting massive gains as investors, particularly hedge funds, piled in. For example, the Global X Social Media ETF, which includes Facebook and LinkedIn among its holdings, rose 64 per cent in 2013.

Hedge funds were caught when those stocks slumped in late February in a sell-off that continued for several weeks. Those stocks rebounded in June, but most have failed to attain earlier heights. The SOCL exchange-traded fund is down 11.4 per cent in 2014.

Last week the equity market weakened, with notable slippage in small-cap names. The Russell 2000 has lost 4.6 per cent in the last seven trading days, while the Nasdaq Biotech index is off by 4.8 per cent.

"These are the sub-industries that have caused a lot of long- time stock watchers to scratch their heads," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst, Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh. "I'd say she'd like to deflate these bubbles with a little bit of stock talk."

The last mention of specific equity sectors appears in a Fed monetary policy report in July 2000, when it says that "growing unease about the lofty valuations reached by technology shares and rising default rates in the corporate sector may have given some investors a better appreciation of the risks of holding stocks in general”.

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York, said the comments also recall former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan's statement in 1996 during a speech, when he asked whether "irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values", which sparked a brief sell-off in stocks.

"Am I surprised? Absolutely! It's off the script," Hogan said. "It's not what we're used to and it's certainly not something that we ever got from Bernanke.”

IMF cuts eurozone 2014 growth forecast

By - Jul 14,2014 - Last updated at Jul 14,2014

BRUSSELS — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its 2014 growth forecast for the eurozone on Monday, warning that the recovery in the single currency bloc was “neither robust nor sufficiently strong”.

In an annual report on the eurozone, the IMF said growth this year would reach 1 per cent instead of the 1.1 per cent earlier forecast. The estimate for 2015 remained at 1.5 per cent.

“We acknowledge there is recovery but a lot more needs to be done,” said Mahmoud Pradhan, deputy director of the IMF’s European department, in a conference call presenting the report.

The Washington-based IMF recommended eurozone policy-makers adopt measures to boost demand, reinforce banks and pursue structural reforms that applied to all 18-member countries, including ways to fight youth unemployment.

The IMF praised monetary measures decided in June by the European Central Bank (ECB), which included negative interest rates and fresh financing for lenders, and noted that proof of their effectiveness could take time.

If the measures fall short however, the IMF urged even more stimulus, including so called quantitative easing embraced by the United States, Britain and Japan, but so far resisted by the more conservative ECB.

The IMF also urged reforms to help businesses replace their dependency on banks for credit with the use of bonds and other methods of raising fresh funds. 

Separately, three of Europe’s leading economic institutes predicted the eurozone’s economic recovery is set to continue at a moderate pace in the coming months, driven by domestic demand.

Germany’s Ifo think tank and its French and Italian counterparts Insee and Istat said in a joint statement they are pencilling in a minimal acceleration in quarterly growth to 0.3 per cent in each of the second, third and fourth quarters from 0.2 per cent in the first quarter.

That will take full-year growth up to a modest one per cent for 2014 as a whole, the institutes said.

“Eurozone growth is expected to recover in the second quarter with GDP (gross domestic product) increasing by 0.3 per cent after 0.2 per cent in the previous quarter,” the statement added.

“Growth rates are forecast to remain at this level in the third and fourth quarters,” it continued. 

The recovery was expected to be “broad-based across sectors and countries. The consolidation of the upturn will be mainly driven by progressive improvements in domestic demand and a marginal contribution by the external sector”, it indicated. 

The 18-country eurozone emerged from its longest-ever recession in the second quarter of 2013, but growth has remained anaemic since then. 

Ifo, Insee and Istat acknowledged downside risks to this scenario, pointing to “increases in the savings rate of private households, weaker external demand from emerging economies, especially from Asia and Latin America, as well as an escalation of international tensions in Eastern Europe, and of the military conflict in Iraq and Syria”.

China, India win WTO ruling against US

By - Jul 14,2014 - Last updated at Jul 14,2014

GENEVA — The United States broke global trade rules by slapping import duties on Indian steel products, a World Trade Organisation (WTO) panel ruled on Monday, calling on Washington to fall into line.

A WTO dispute settlement panel, said Washington had “acted inconsistently” with  regulations set down for the international body’s 160 member economies.

“We conclude that the United States has nullified or impaired benefits accruing to India,” said the panel, which is made up of independent trade and legal experts. “We recommend the United States bring its measures into conformity with its obligations.” 

India filed its complaint at the WTO in 2012, after Washington imposed duties of nearly 300 per cent on imports of products including steel pipes.

The United States applied the duties because it felt Indian steel manufacturers were benefitting from unfair subsidies.

WTO members are allowed to impose so-called countervailing duties — a special import tax — if they believe that their domestic manufacturers are being hurt by subsidies granted by a trade partner to its companies.

The WTO regulations require the importing country to first conduct a detailed investigation that shows properly that domestic industry is hurt.

Legal sparring over the scope and depth of such investigations, and the legitimacy of subsidies and countervailing duties is commonplace at the WTO.

The WTO polices global trade accords in an effort to offer its member economies a level playing field.

Its panels can authorise retaliatory trade measures by the wronged party if its rival fails to fall into line.

It disputes process can last for years however, owing to appeals, counter-appeals and compliance assessments.

Monday’s ruling was the first by the WTO panel in the steel case and Washington has the right to appeal.

Also on Monday, Beijing won a key victory in a trade dispute with Washington, as a WTO panel said the United States was wrong to slap punitive duties on a host of Chinese goods.

The battle covered an array of products including paper, steel, tyres, magnets, chemicals, kitchen fittings, flooring and wind turbines.

The United States had hit them with extra import duties because it argued that they were being dumped on its market to help Chinese companies grab business.

China filed a complaint over the measures at the WTO in 2012.

A WTO dispute settlement panel on Monday said that the US duties were “inconsistent” with global rules.

“They have nullified or impaired benefits accruing to China,” said the panel, which is made up of independent trade and legal experts. “We recommend that the United States bring its measures into conformity with its obligations.” 

In a statement issued by its diplomats at the WTO, China’s ministry of commerce hailed the decision, noting that the annual export value of the affected products was around $7.2 billion.

“China urges the United States to respect the WTO rulings and correct its wrong doings of abusively using trade remedy measures, and to ensure an environment of fair competition for the Chinese enterprises,” it said.

Washington has the right to appeal against the ruling, which was the first in the case.

Ambition, investor greed fuel rise and fall of Dubai’s Arabtec

Jul 13,2014 - Last updated at Jul 13,2014

ABU DHABI/DUBAI — From a 59-storey tower in Abu Dhabi, the offices of Arabtec look out over the Gulf towards Middle Eastern and Asian nations where the construction firm hopes to expand. It is a symbol of the company’s ambitions — and the way in which they have run into hard reality.

Arabtec agreed last year to lease the entire tower, which was to serve as a base for it to diversify into the oil, power, infrastructure and real estate sectors, providing capacity for thousands of future employees as well as joint venture partners.

Much of that expansion is now in doubt. After a souring of ties between Arabtec’s chief executive and a big state investor led to his sudden resignation and a collapse of the company’s shares last month, Arabtec has launched a review of its plans.

The Dubai-listed firm’s troubles have hit the wider stock market, helping to trigger a crash that erased about $30 billion of value in eight weeks, and raised questions over corporate regulation and disclosure in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The meteoric rise and fall of Arabtec and former chief executive officer Hasan Ismaik reveal some of the perils of business in the Gulf: secretive state shareholders, management authority which relies partly on personal connections, and hands-off regulation.

“The Arabtec mess points to structural weaknesses in the business environment in the UAE and in the region more generally,” said Jim Krane, a Gulf expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in the United States.

Business in the UAE is competitive and vibrant, but driven by opaque personal ties and political clout, he added. At the same time, regulation of companies is often tolerated only if it does not get in the way of traditional business methods.

“Companies are expected to adhere to the wider policy choices of the government and ruling family, and these dictates are not generally made public. There is a lot that happens beyond the public eye,” he explained.

Rise

Founded in Dubai four decades ago by a Palestinian-born businessman, Arabtec rode the region’s oil boom to become one of its biggest construction firms. It helped to build the world’s tallest skyscraper, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai.

New horizons began opening in 2012 when Aabar Investments, a unit of the Abu Dhabi government’s International Petroleum Investment Co. (IPIC), raised its stake in Arabtec — effectively giving the firm the backing of Abu Dhabi’s vast oil wealth.

Aabar strengthened its management influence over Arabtec, a process that culminated in February 2013 with the resignation of founder Riad Kamal as chief executive officer and his replacement with Hasan Ismaik, a Jordanian businessman who was then just 36 years old.

Ismaik rose rapidly from obscurity. Born to what he describes as a family of modest means, he says he moved to Dubai in 1996 to work as a real estate broker, getting a big break a few years later when he arranged a deal for well-connected Abu Dhabi investors to buy several buildings in Dubai.

He started buying shares in Arabtec and by August 2012, was prominent enough to become a non-executive member of its board, a position which within a few months led to his becoming chief executive officer.

Investors saw Aabar’s backing of the firm as a ticket to great wealth, driving the share price up more than threefold in the first four months of this year. This made Ismaik rich; in June, Forbes magazine said he had become the first Jordanian billionaire, and the third-youngest in the Middle East.

The benefits to Arabtec of having a big state shareholder seemed almost limitless: in February, Aabar asked it to build 37 new towers in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. The deal was worth $6.1 billion, or three times Arabtec’s total revenues in 2013.

In March, Arabtec agreed on an even more spectacular deal, to build 1 million houses in Egypt in a $40 billion project backed by the Egyptian and UAE governments. Arabtec effectively became a political tool of the Abu Dhabi government, which is pouring billions of dollars into Egypt to prevent any resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood there.

Ismaik pushed plans to diversify the firm, explored acquisition opportunities and publicly discussed the idea of launching a string of initial public offers of shares in Arabtec units across the Middle East. Foreign expansion plans included opening an office in Serbia to target the Balkans.

“That was my vision — to take Arabtec to an international level,” Ismaik, a tall, bearded, soft-spoken figure in the white dishdasha robes worn by many men in the Gulf, told Reuters in Abu Dhabi earlier this month.

But for many fund managers, who had seen Arabtec’s stock soar far beyond their estimates of fair value as leveraged investors bid it up in response to the bullish predictions, the story was too good to be true — and so it proved.

Arabtec shares began plunging in mid-May as rumours circulated of a dispute between Aabar and Ismaik, raising the spectre of Arabtec losing Aabar’s support and being forced to slash its growth plans. Aabar declined to make any comment.

The rumours snowballed in early June when stock exchange data showed Aabar had suddenly cut its stake in Arabtec to 18.94 per cent from 21.57 per cent over several days.

In mid-June, Ismaik publicly denied there was any rift with Aabar, but the writing was on the wall: two days later he resigned, saying he wanted to pursue his own business interests.

From mid-May to their low in early July, Arabtec shares lost an astounding 70 per cent. Adding to investors’ jitters was uncertainty about the fate of Ismaik’s stake in Arabtec.

In late May, Arabtec said Ismaik had raised his holding to 21.46 per cent from 8.03 per cent; there was no explanation of when, or why this had not been disclosed earlier, since bourse rules require changes in stakes above 5 per cent to be revealed promptly. In mid-June, when Ismaik quit, bourse data showed his stake had risen further to 28.85 per cent.

He says he initially bought under several names — legal in the UAE — and that bourse data showed his stake jumping when regulators decided to consolidate the stakes under one name.

Ismaik says he has received several offers for his stake, from parties he declines to identify. But he insists he is in no hurry to sell, and that he may only consider selling for prices 50 per cent or more above the current market price. 

Future

What went wrong? Both Arabtec and Ismaik say his stint at the company was productive and that his decision to leave was a personal one; Aabar declines to comment. But a number of senior executives linked to Ismaik have left Arabtec since his resignation, company sources say, suggesting Aabar wants a change of management style.

One theory held by many people who know Arabtec is that Ismaik became too prominent and too flamboyant for the taste of the firm’s financial backers, in a society where many of the most powerful businessmen keep low public profiles. The Forbes story on Ismaik’s success may have contributed to his downfall.

“He gave people the bullet to shoot him with,” one Abu Dhabi businessman, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the Arabtec saga, said of the publicity surrounding Ismaik.

Another widely held theory is that Ismaik’s investments in Arabtec, which at the market’s peak were worth $2.7 billion, were conducted on behalf of other interests — a common practice in the Gulf — and then became a source of friction with them.

Ismaik says he invested his own money in Arabtec, borrowing money from banks with which he had close ties.

The scars left by the Arabtec saga on both the company and the stock market may heal with time. 

Arabtec Chairman Khadem Abdulla Al Qubaisi held a news conference early this month, his first since Ismaik’s departure, to say the firm’s construction projects remained on track and Aabar continued to support it.

Aabar may further tighten its control of Arabtec; a board member from IPIC, Mohamed Al Fahim, has taken over as acting chief executive officer. In the last few days Arabtec shares have partially recovered, though they remain 46 per cent below their peak.

But Arabtec looks likely to be a more sober, cautious firm than it was in Ismaik’s day. Qubaisi said it was now cutting costs, reviewing excessively high salaries and putting less emphasis on the diversification plans championed by Ismaik.

“We are reviewing a lot of things,” Qubaisi said, adding that the company was restructuring itself to focus on its core construction business.

In particular, Arabtec may outsource more of its new projects rather than bulking up itself, which could be costly and disruptive. 

Analysts believe the firm, which earlier this year said its workforce totalled about 63,000, would need to hire thousands more white-collar staff to manage giant deals such as the Egyptian housing construction project.

Ismaik’s future may also be somewhat more modest. He says he does not feel bitter about his experience at Arabtec and plans to stay in the UAE, focusing on his Abu Dhabi-based private investment company, HAMG, which has interests in areas from real estate to hotels and logistics.

Married with four children, he has been spending some of his time since he quit watching World Cup football match, rooting for Germany; he owns part of German football club TSV 1860 Munchen.

“I will take life as it comes. I believe in God, and I will win,” he said.

China’s yuan a growing force in global finance — study

By - Jul 13,2014 - Last updated at Jul 13,2014

WASHINGTON — China’s yuan is a growing force in global finance, more than doubling in use over the past year, according to a new study from the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

Although its use in the international payments system remains dwarfed by the dollar and euro, the yuan, officially known as the renminbi, grew to 1.4 per cent of total transactions.

That jump moved it ahead of the Hong Kong and Singapore dollars and even with the Swiss franc, the sixth most used currency in global transactions, the IIF study pointed out.

In trade finance, overwhelmingly dominated by the US dollar, the yuan jumped into second place last year ahead of the euro and the Japanese yen, comprising 8 per cent of transactions.

And despite Beijing’s still firm controls on its use, the yuan has become the ninth most-traded currency on foreign exchange markets, the volume hitting $120 billion daily on average, compared with $34 billion in 2010.

The study by the IIF, a global association of leading banks, said the gains have come as Beijing slowly frees up the currency for international use.

There are clearing banks for yuan transactions now in five international centres: Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore and, since early this year, London, the world’s leading foreign exchange centre. 

Yuan-denominated bonds, so-called dim-sum bonds, have jumped since the government first permitted their issue in Hong Kong seven years ago.

“While true internationalisation would require much greater capital account liberalisation, the Chinese government continues to take measured steps towards opening China’s fnancial markets,” the IIF said.

“Further gradual steps to widen the currency trading band — and a more market-determined exchange rate — will help this process,” the IIF added.

The use of the yuan is still much smaller than China’s presence in the global economy: almost 12 per cent of all global trade flows and 11 per cent of capital flows.

Its 1.4 per cent share of international transactions is far below the euro’s 42.5 per cent and the dollar’s 31 per cent.

The government continues to keep a firm hand on its use, in part not wanting to release its control on the key yuan-dollar exchange rate.

The United States has repeatedly accused China of keeping the yuan undervalued to enhance its export strength, exacerbating the huge US trade deficit with China.

Beginning in 2010 the yuan strengthened from 6.83 per US dollar to 6.05 per dollar last year, but has since fallen back to 6.2, despite ongoing US pressure over the valuation.

Ironically, China’s fast economic growth and the US pressure had until recently helped limit the growth of the yuan in offshore lending. International deposits of the currency amount to 1.5 trillion yuan, or $240 billion, but yuan loans are minimal.

The IIF said that was because yuan interest rates were high and, until recently, investors held onto the currency in expectation of steady yuan appreciation.

As Iraq chaos deters truckers, Turkish exports suffer

By - Jul 12,2014 - Last updated at Jul 12,2014

HABUR, Turkey — Abdi Tekin used to spend days waiting to clear this customs post on the border with Iraq, his truck among the hundreds lined up to ferry some $1 billion worth of goods a month to Turkey's second biggest export market.

Now, lying on a thin, dusty carpet in the shade of his cab, he has to wait just a few hours at Habur. Chaos in Iraq, where a bloody Islamist insurgency threatens to dismember the country, has brought one of Turkey's key trade routes to a virtual halt.

"Everything's been different for the past month, month and a half. There are no cargoes or very few... We're racing with each other to get them," said Tekin, 33, as he took a nap to steel himself for a journey he has been making for years, but which in recent weeks has become increasingly treacherous.

Economists expect Turkey's trade balance to take a painful hit after Sunni militants seized swathes of northern and western Iraq last month — including the big northern city of Mosul, a key staging post on Turkey's export route to Baghdad.

Islamist insurgents held 32 Turkish truck drivers there for three weeks last month and still hold dozens of other Turks hostage. Though despite the risks, competition among trucking firms means freight rates have actually come down in many cases.

"The trade has almost stopped," said logistics company owner  Kemal Palta, who runs a fleet of 67 trucks from his office in Silopi, close to the Iraqi border crossing at Habur.

"There is no demand. There are no cargoes for our trucks to carry. I saw some experts saying there's been a fall of 20 per cent. If only that was the case," added Palta, who is also a senior official in the local chamber of commerce.

"I'd say there's a fall of at least 60 per cent and it will get worse in July," Palta indicated, a view echoed by the truckers at Habur, so congested just a month ago that they routinely waited in line for up to five days for paperwork to cross into Iraq.

Turkish exports to Iraq fell 21 per cent to $727 million in June, according to data from the Turkish Exporters Association (TIM), but the full extent of the drop-off in trade is only likely to be reflected in the figures over the coming months.

Iraq has risen to become Turkey's second biggest export market after Germany in recent years as the country rebuilds its economy after decades of war and sanctions and Ankara has sought to diversify its trade away from a dependence on Europe.

Exports to Iraq, mostly to the autonomous Kurdish enclave in the north of the country, had been growing in the double digits since 2005, at times in excess of 30 per cent, helping to narrow a trade gap partly responsible for Turkey's big current account deficit, its main economic weakness.

More than $5 billion worth of exports were shipped to Iraq in the first five months, broadly in line with volumes in the same period a year earlier, before the insurgency flared. Food, building materials and refined fuel are among the main products going across the border by road.

Fear and falling profit

Predominantly Sunni Muslim Turkey warned its citizens last month to leave all but autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, saying "negative propaganda" was being spread against Ankara in the Shiite-dominated south of the country.

Turkey has long had a tense relationship with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki's Shiite-led government, not least because of Turkey's thickening ties with Kurdistan, which is at odds with the federal government over oil and land rights.

"At least two dozen of my fellow drivers have stayed at home for the past month, because there are no cargoes and because they're scared to death. So am I," said truck driver Muharrem Cinar, 38, splashing bottled water on his face to keep cool under the scorching sun as he waited at Habur.

The truck drivers held in Mosul appeared in good health when they were released and said they had not been mistreated.

But that is little consolation for nervous truckers in Habur, not least as another 49 Turks, many taken from their consulate in Mosul, are still being held.

"I would never go to Mosul, especially after this," said Cinar. "There was always danger, but now it's entirely different. You go there and they might kill you."

Those still willing to venture into Iraq say the fall in demand for their services is eating into their profits.

"Before the war, the price I charged per tonne for this cargo was $55. Now I am carrying this for $28, and I bargained hard," said Mehmet Badur, 44, lighting a cigarette before jumping into his truck laden with sunflower oil.

Alternative routes

Almost all of those still waiting to cross at Habur were travelling to Kurdistan in the north, relatively untouched by the violence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its allies as they fight Iraqi government forces.

That has left transport companies looking for alternative routes into the rest of Iraq without having to go through Mosul. But the detours increase the costs. The straight route from Habur to Baghdad via Mosul is about 550 kilometres. A route to the east, avoiding Mosul, is at least 20 per cent longer.

"ISIL's seizure of Mosul cuts our route in two. Now we're trying to go via Iran, but the Iranians want an additional fee," said Palta, the logistics company owner. Another option might be to hand over loads to Iraqi drivers at the Kurdish frontier.

"But," he added, "we have to keep trying as this is our biggest export market."

Iraq accounted for almost 8 per cent of Turkey's $152 billion exports last year and a fall in trade could force it to cut its $166.5 billion target for 2013, economists predict.

Noting that the violence flared only towards the middle of June, Finansbank chief economist Inan Demir said the 21 per cent decline in Turkish exports to Iraq last month reflected problems that were only fully a factor in the latter half.

"The real impact," he noted, "will be seen in July and August and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 40 per cent decline."

Such a decline could arrest the narrowing trend in Turkey's trade deficit, the main driver of its $50 billion current account gap, which both the government and central bank have been struggling to bring down.

The Iraqi glitch for the economy could discomfit Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he bids for the enhanced post of president next month, though few expect it to prevent him winning an election at which polls make him the clear favourite.

Mehmet Buyukeksi, head of the TIM exporters' association, said this month that the situation in Iraq was worrisome but that trade losses would be compensated for by a revival in demand in European markets. 

Finansbank's Demir did not agree.

"I don't think a rise in exports to Europe can totally compensate for the fall in exports to Iraq," Demir said. "If official trade data proves the decline to Iraq in coming months, a downward revision of my year-end export forecast is likely."

Such economic calculations are a distant concern for the truckers at Habur.

"Iraq is finished for me," Vehbi Demir, 37, one of the drivers abducted in Mosul, told Reuters after his release. "From now on I will never set foot in that country again."

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