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Bank of England says UK resilient to financial shocks

By - Oct 10,2023 - Last updated at Oct 10,2023

People walk past the Bank of England in London, UK, May 5, 2022\ (AFP file photo)

LONDON — Britain's banking system remains strong and UK business has shown itself resilient to higher interest rates, the Bank of England (BoE) said on Tuesday in its latest assessment of the economy. 

Its conclusions follow a survey carried out by the BoE's Financial Policy Committee, in which respondents said the main risks to stability were cyber attacks along with geopolitical unrest and high inflation. 

"The outlook for global economic growth remains weak in the near-term. A number of risks could weaken growth further. For example, if inflation proves more persistent, interest rates may need to rise further," the BoE said.

"The UK banking system remains strong enough to support households and businesses, even if economic conditions are worse than we expect.

"The UK banking system has large capital buffers and other resources to absorb any potential losses, or outflows of cash," it added. 

Economists say Britain is at risk of tipping into recession after the BoE's multiple interest-rate rises since the end of 2021 aimed at cooling inflation, which remains elevated. 

The BoE cautioned that disruptions to market-based finance, such as equity and debt markets, "have the potential to increase the cost and reduce the availability of finance for both UK businesses and households".

The BoE's latest Systemic Risk Survey gathered responses from 56 firms in August and September.

It found that businesses "remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system and reported a similar level of confidence to" the results of the equivalent survey in the first half of 2023.

"The risk of cyber attack, geopolitical risk and inflation risk are still considered the most challenging for firms to manage by a significant margin. 

"A number of respondents flagged artificial intelligence as posing new risks to financial stability," the BoE found this time around.

Claudia Goldin wins Nobel for work on women in labour market

By - Oct 10,2023 - Last updated at Oct 10,2023

STOCKHOLM — The Nobel prize in economics was on Monday awarded to American economist Claudia Goldin for her research that has helped understand the role of women in the labour market.

The 77-year-old Harvard professor, who is the third woman to be awarded the prestigious economics prize, was given the nod "for having advanced our understanding of women's labour market outcomes", the jury said.

"Her research reveals the causes of change, as well as the main sources of the remaining gender gap," it added in a statement.

Globally, about 50 per cent of women participate in the labour market compared to 80 per cent of men, but women earn less and are less likely to reach the top of the career ladder, the prize committee noted.

The Nobel prize in economics has the fewest number of women laureates, with just two others since it was first awarded in 1969 — Elinor Ostrom in 2009 and Esther Duflo in 2019.

Goldin has "trawled the archives and collected over 200 years of data from the US", the jury said. 

"She studied something that many people, many historians, for instance, simply decided not to study before because they didn't think these data existed," Nobel committee member Randi Hjalmarsson said, calling Goldin "a detective". 

The jury highlighted that Goldin's work's "provided the first comprehensive account of women's earnings and labour market participation through the centuries".

It noted that despite modernisation — coupled with economic growth and a rising proportion of women in the labour market — the earnings gap between men and women hardly closed for a long time.

"According to Goldin, part of the explanation is that educational decisions, which impact a lifetime of career opportunities, are made at a relatively young age," the jury noted.While much of the earnings gap historically could be explained by differences in education and occupational choices, Goldin "has shown that the bulk of this earnings difference is now between men and women in the same occupation, and that it largely arises with the birth of the first child".

Goldin's work also demonstrated that "access to the contraceptive pill" played an important role in accelerating the increase in education levels during the 20th century, by "offering new opportunities for career planning", according to the Nobel committee. 

"Thanks to Claudia Goldin's groundbreaking research we now know much more about the underlying factors and which barriers may need to be addressed in the future," Jakob Svensson, Chair of the Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences, said in a statement.

The economics prize is the only prize not among the original five set out by the will of Alfred Nobel, who died in 1896. 

It was instead created through a donation from the Swedish central bank in 1968, and detractors have thus dubbed it "a false Nobel".

However, just like the other science prizes the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences selects the laureate and the nomination process follows the same procedures.

Along with a prize sum of 11 million Swedish kronor (about $1 million), the Nobel comes with a gold medal and a diploma which laureates receive from King Carl XVI Gustaf at a lavish prize ceremony in Stockholm. 

The prestigious Peace Prize on Friday went to imprisoned Iranian women's rights campaigner Narges Mohammadi.

Earlier in the week, Norwegian playwright Jon Fosse was rewarded in literature.

The chemistry prize was awarded to Moungi Bawendi, Louis Brus and Alexei Ekimov for their work on nanoparticles called quantum dots. 

In physics, Anne L'Huillier, Pierre Agostini and Ferenc Krausz were honoured for using ultra-quick light flashes that enable the study of electrons inside atoms and molecules. 

4,000 more autoworkers joining US strike — union

By - Oct 09,2023 - Last updated at Oct 09,2023

Members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) Local 230 and their supporters walk the picket line in front of the Chrysler Corporate Parts Division in Ontario, California, on September 26, to show solidarity for the 'Big Three' autoworkers currently on strike (AFP file photo)

WASHINGTON — Employees at US industrial automaker Mack Trucks voted down a labor agreement on Sunday and will join some 25,000 other United Auto Workers (UAW) members on strike, the union announced.

"UAW members at Mack Trucks have voted to REJECT a tentative agreement, and will STRIKE at 7 am on Monday," the union posted on X, formerly Twitter.

The post said that it would impact 4,000 employees at Mack, a maker of industrial vehicles which is headquartered in North Carolina, but has manufacturing plants in Pennsylvania and Maryland.

"I'm inspired to see UAW members at Mack holding out for a better deal, and ready to stand up and walk off the job to win it," said UAW president Shawn Fain.

The Mack workers will be joining striking UAW members at the so-called "Big Three" — GM, Ford and Stellantis — who launched a targeted action on September 15 after failing to reach a new deal.

The targeted strike called for stoppages at a handful of plants, while leaving most of the union's 146,000 US hourly auto workers on the job.

After two weeks of expanding the strike to other plants, Fain on Friday said that the UAW would hold off for now, citing last-minute progress in talks.

With the dual earlier expansions of the strike the prior two Fridays, the total number of workers on strike at the Big Three stands at about 25,000.

The industrial action is the first-ever joint strike at the three major automakers in a push for higher salaries and other improvements, especially related to the transition to manufacturing electric vehicles.

In a letter to Mack posted on X, the UAW cited wage increases, cost of living adjustments and several benefits as outstanding issues in their contract negotiations.

 

US stocks bounce back to finish higher after surprising jobs data

By - Oct 08,2023 - Last updated at Oct 08,2023

NEW YORK — Wall Street stocks rebounded to join major European indexes in positive territory on Friday, after an initial sag as traders digested a hotter than expected US jobs report.

The latest employment figures showed that the US economy added 336,000 new jobs last month, virtually double what was expected and raising concern that interest rates would be kept higher for longer.

Labour Department data also showed that the US unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.8 per cent, maintaining pressure on policymakers looking to cool the economy.

But on the plus side for traders, who now put the prospect of higher rates before year-end at just over 40 per cent according to CME Group, wage growth fell back slightly.

The employment report initially pushed major US indexes into the red, as markets assessed the prospect that a strong job market could pressure the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates again to tackle stubborn inflation. 

However, markets swiftly reversed course, finishing higher. The Dow closed up 0.9 per cent, while the S&P 500 jumped 1.2 per cent and the Nasdaq rallied 1.6 per cent.

Initial shock from the strong jobs figures "caused the market to go down", due to potential implications for Fed interest rate policy, CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall told AFP. 

But as the day wore on, investors took a closer look at the numbers, "sort of like peeling aside the leaves of an artichoke", he said. 

After spotting that "the inflation component, the wages component, came in much weaker than expected", they likely lifted their expectations for a "soft landing" — when the Fed tames inflation without plunging the country into a damaging recession. 

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, which spiked to new multi-year heights just after the report, moderated later in the session.

 

Better German data 

 

Major European indexes spent the day in the green, paring early gains after the US data emerged but then finding a second wind.

London advanced 0.6 per cent, Frankfurt closed with a 1.1 per cent gain and Paris added 0.9 per cent.

In Europe on Friday, data showed factory orders rose more than expected in its biggest economy Germany during August.

High inflation, elevated energy costs and weaker demand from key market China have all been weighing on Germany's crucial manufacturing sector in recent months.

The country entered recession at the start of 2023, and economic growth stagnated in the second quarter. 

A slew of weak indicators since then added to fears of a prolonged slowdown.

Among individual companies, Pioneer Natural Resources surged 10.5 per cent following reports that the shale producer was close to being acquired by ExxonMobil in a megadeal that could be worth $60 billion.

Putin launches Russian gas shipments to Uzbekistan

Russian gas exports decreased by 21.5% in 2022

By - Oct 08,2023 - Last updated at Oct 08,2023

In this pool photograph distributed by Sputnik agency, Russia's President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev next to Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as they pose for a photograph during their meeting in Novo-Ogaryovo on Saturday (AFP photo)

MOSCOW — Russian Vladimir Putin on Saturday announced the start of gas supplies to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan, a boost for Russia's industry hit by a flurry of Western sanctions over the offensive in Ukraine.

Despite being home to a wealth of natural resources including gas, the Central Asian country of Uzbekistan has faced energy shortages.

Moscow meanwhile relies heavily on energy revenues but has seen export plummet amid since the offensive. 

"This is the largest trilateral energy project between the three ex-Soviet countries", Putin said, after formally launching the shipment. 

He was hosting a meeting in Moscow with his Uzbek and Kazakh counterparts, Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. 

"The timely implementation of such... project shows that Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan are capable of tackling the most complex and ambitious tasks," Putin said. 

"Kazakhstan will be able to solve the issue of gasification of its northern and eastern regions" while Uzbekistan will "gain another source of energy". 

Putin added that the leaders would during the afternoon discuss further cooperation in the energy sector as a whole.

Russia's offensive against Ukraine has rattled nerves in Central Asian nations, including Kazakhstan, which has sought to distance itself from Moscow.

But the former Soviet states retain close political and economic ties with Russia. 

Russian gas exports decreased by 21.5 per cent in 2022 as the European Union, once the largest buyer of Russian gas, drastically reduced imports.

Iraq signs 'preliminary' gas deal with Turkmenistan

By - Oct 07,2023 - Last updated at Oct 07,2023

A photo taken on May 3, 2014, shows 'The Gateway to Hell', a huge burning gas crater in Turkmenistan's Karakum Desert (AFP file photo)

BAGHDAD — Iraq on Friday signed an initial agreement with Turkmenistan to import much-needed gas for the country's insufficient and dilapidated electricity grid, officials said.

 They added that talks are still needed to arrange transport through Iran. 

 Iraq, ravaged by decades of conflict and international sanctions, relies on gas imported from its eastern neighbour for almost one-third of its energy needs. 

 But Tehran regularly cuts supply over payment issues, further worsening the electricity outages that severely impact the daily lives of 43 million Iraqis. 

 "Iraq and Turkmenistan signed a memorandum of understanding on Friday to provide Turkmen gas to the country, as part of the government's programme to diversify its energy sources to ensure a stable and sustainable power supply," a statement from Baghdad's electricity ministry said. 

 Iraq's Minister of Electricity Ziad Fadel clarified that "the pipelines of the Islamic Republic of Iran, connected to Iraqi transport pipelines, will be used to reach the power plants" in Iraq. 

 The "preliminary agreement" is to import approximately 25 million cubic metres of gas per day, a ministry official told AFP, without specifying the degree to which that will address Iraq's needs.

 According to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy, Iraq consumed 17.1 billion cubic metres of gas in 2021.

 "It is a memorandum of understanding to expand the horizons of cooperation," the official said, declining to be identified because he was not authorised to speak to the media. 

 "The gas will be transported via Iranian pipelines, which will also require negotiations with the Iranian and Turkmen parties." 

 Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al Sudani, who was appointed by a coalition of pro-Iran Shiite parties, regularly calls for the diversification of Iraq's energy sources. 

 To reduce their dependence on Iranian gas, Iraq has been exploring several possibilities including imports from Gulf countries like Qatar, as well as recovering flared gas from oil fields. 

 Iraq is one of the world's major crude producers.

 Electricity shortages are extremely common in the country, where summer heat exacerbates daily power outages, sometimes leading to protests in a country with deteriorating infrastructure and plagued by corruption.

UAE approves mega gas project weeks ahead of COP28

By - Oct 05,2023 - Last updated at Oct 05,2023

DUBAI — Emirati energy giant ADNOC said on Thursday it had awarded contracts to build a major gas project, just a few weeks before the Gulf state hosts the COP28 climate conference.

The company said it would invest in the Hail and Ghasha offshore fields, pledging that it would be the "world's first project that aims to operate with net zero emissions".

The two contracts, signed on the final day of the Abu Dhabi Energy Show, had a total estimated value of $16.9 billion, it said in a statement.

Construction work on the site has been entrusted to a joint venture between the Abu Dhabi-based National Petroleum Construction Company and Saipem of Italy.

Another Italian company, Tecnimont, will be responsible for onshore infrastructure.

ADNOC said the project includes "innovative de-carbonisation technologies" to capture and store 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year

The Hail and Ghasha projects are part of the Ghasha concession in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, which aims to produce more than 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2030.

"ADNOC will continue to responsibly unlock its gas resources to enable gas self-sufficiency for the UAE, grow our export capacity and support global energy security," it said in the statement.

The concession is operated by ADNOC, Eni, OMV, Wintershall Dea and Lukoil.

In a report published in September, experts from the Climate Action Tracker group highlighted the UAE's "dependency on gas for electricity", expressing concern about the COP28 host's commitment to carbon capture.

The UN climate conference, which opens in Dubai on November 30, is being chaired by ADNOC head Sultan Al Jaber.

His appointment to the post has drawn criticism from environmentalists, who denounce the role of the hydrocarbon sector in global warming.

At the opening of the Abu Dhabi conference on Monday, Jaber said the industry was "at the heart of the solution" to climate change, calling on industry representatives to "silence the sceptics".

He reiterated that the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels was "inevitable and essential", while emphasising the global economy's dependence on oil, gas and coal.

ADNOC made a commitment in July to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 for its own operations.

But the target does not take into account the indirect emissions produced by the hydrocarbons exported and burned by its customers, which account for the vast majority of its carbon footprint.

Germany's electric car sales plummet in September

By - Oct 05,2023 - Last updated at Oct 05,2023

FRANKFURT — Sales of electric vehicles plummeted in Germany in September as government subsidies were ended, official data showed on Thursday, casting a shadow on the wider car market in Europe's biggest economy.

A total of 224,502 new cars hit the road in Germany last month, a 0.1 per cent dip on the previous year, according to the KBA federal transport authority.

It was the first drop in car registrations since January, after easing supply chains and a run on electric cars ahead of the phase-out of financial incentives boosted sales in recent months.

The September setback was driven by a 28.6 per cent drop in sales of battery-powered electric vehicles after an environmental subsidy for commercial buyers ended.

Just under 32,000 battery electric cars were registered in September, compared with 87,000 in August.

Analysts at EY said the month-on-month drop of around 63 per cent was the "sharpest decline in new electric car registrations in almost seven years".

Germany's new car market was still on track to show growth in 2023, EY analyst Constantin M. Gall said, but the lack of momentum in the electric segment would likely be a drag in the months ahead

"The electric market continues to rely heavily on state support and can't stand on its own two feet," Gall said.

Despite an increase in sales of diesel and petrol cars in September, Germany's new car registrations remained 8 per cent below the pre-pandemic level of September 2019.

The VDIK car importers' federation said the auto sector was still benefitting from an order backlog related to pandemic supply chain disruptions, but the outlook was darkening.

"We are increasingly concerned about the persistently low order intake," VDIK president Reinhard Zirpel said, adding that the electric slowdown would further hinder the recovery.

Taiwan to probe firms over Huawei chip plants in China

By - Oct 05,2023 - Last updated at Oct 05,2023

A staff member of Huawei using her mobile phone at the Huawei Digital Transformation Showcase in Shenzhen, China's Guangdong province, on March 6, 2019 (AFP file photo)

TAIPEI — Taipei has said it will investigate if Taiwanese firms that helped Huawei build semiconductor factories violated US sanctions against the Chinese tech giant.

Huawei, a leader in 5G telecom equipment, has been at the centre of the intensifying US-China rivalry over advanced tech in recent years.

The United States and its allies have curtailed its access to major markets and advanced tech — including chip making — over fears its products could allow China to spy on their networks.

Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua agreed on Wednesday — during questioning by lawmakers — to launch a probe into four tech firms that collaborated with Huawei on chip plants.

The four Taiwanese companies are helping Huawei develop an "under-the-radar network of chip plants" in China, Bloomberg reported this week.

The companies were identified by Bloomberg as Topco Scientific Co., L&K Engineering Co., United Integrated Services Co. and Cica-Huntek Chemical Technology Taiwan.

Taiwan — which China claims as its territory — is a powerhouse for the design and production of semiconductors, the lifeblood of the modern global economy.

Despite growing Chinese diplomatic and military pressure on the island, Taiwan's tech industry has had to tread a careful line to avoid angering Beijing and any export control violations.

Wang told lawmakers that the four companies had helped Huawei with "wastewater and environmental protection equipment" for its factories, and not with sensitive technologies that could impact national security.

Since last year, the United States has introduced sweeping restrictions to cut off China's access to high-end semiconductors and chip-making equipment, citing national security concerns.

China has responded with similar curbs, including the introduction of a licence requirement to export the rare minerals vital in the production of semiconductors.

In August, Huawei announced a phone model reportedly powered by an advanced chip that was manufactured in China, leading to questions in Washington about the efficacy of curbs against the company.

In Washington on Wednesday, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo described reports that Huawei is manufacturing advanced chips as "incredibly disturbing".

During a Senate commerce committee hearing, she did not comment on any ongoing US probes but said her department investigates "to the fullest wherever we think there is some credible allegation" of an export controls violation.

Raimondo told a Congressional hearing last month that there was no evidence that Huawei could produce these chips at scale.

 

OPEC+ maintains output reduction to boost oil prices

Oil prices recovered recently, approached $100 per barrel last week

By - Oct 04,2023 - Last updated at Oct 04,2023

OPEC expects lower demand for its crude oil as rival producers grab market share and the United States sets another output record (AFP file photo)

VIENNA — An OPEC+ panel recommended on Wednesday that the oil cartel keep its current output reduction strategy unchanged after heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia vowed to maintain their cuts to prop up prices.

Oil prices recovered in recent months and approached $100 per barrel last week as top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia have taken millions of barrels off the market.

Crude prices have eased in more recent days, however, as markets worry over a slowing economy and interest rates remaining high for longer in the United States and Europe.

In a statement following a virtual meeting, OPEC+ said its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) "reaffirmed the commitment of its member countries" to maintain its production reduction strategy valid until the end of 2024.

The panel added that it stands "ready to take additional measures at any time" depending on market conditions.

The JMMC also praised the "efforts... of Saudi Arabia" to voluntarily reduce its production by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) since July.

The Saudi Ministry of Energy confirmed that the voluntary cut would continue until the end of 2023.

It added that the kingdom's production would amount to about 9 million bpd in November and December.

Russia will maintain its export cuts of about 300,000bpd until December, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in the government's Telegram channel.

Both Riyadh and Moscow stressed that they would review their cuts next month to decide whether to deepen them or increase production.

The next JMMC meeting is set for November 26 ahead of the ministerial meeting, according to a statement from the group. 

The JMMC has no decision-making power but discusses market conditions and makes recommendations, which are then formally discussed and decided at the organisation's ministerial meetings.

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