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Saudi gov't to diversify income, raise efficiency — King Salman

By - Dec 24,2015 - Last updated at Dec 24,2015

Saudi Arabia's King Salman chairs a session of Saudi Shura Council in Riyadh on Wednesday (Reuters photo)

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia will seek to diversify its sources of income and improve the efficiency of government spending as it strives to reduce its dependence on oil revenue, which has plunged since last year, King Salman said on Wednesday.

The world's top oil exporter is expected to announce on Monday that it has run a big deficit this year, and Riyadh's approach to an era of expected low crude prices is closely watched both inside the kingdom and global energy markets.

Salman's comments precede what is expected to be a more detailed roster of economic proposals outlined in next week's budget announcement, and in a "transformation plan" to be revealed by his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in January.

"The kingdom is committed to implementing programmes to diversify sources of income and decrease dependence on oil as a main source of revenue," Salman said in the text of his annual address to the Shura Council setting out policy goals.

"Our vision for economic reform focuses on raising the efficiency of government spending, taking advantage of economic resources and increasing returns on government investments," he added.

The council is an appointed body that debates new laws and advises the government on policy. King Salman, 79, read out a brief statement on live television but his main address was then distributed in paper form to council members and later published on state media.

Noting the volatile economic conditions and lower oil prices in his speech, Salman stated that Riyadh's fiscal policy was based on "preserving stability and balance between revenue and spending on big development projects".

He continued that reforms would also aim to create an attractive environment for increased investment by both Saudi and foreign companies, simplify procedures and boost employment.

 

The monarch reiterated Saudi Arabia's support for a stable oil market, which he said would protect the interests of current and future generations, and added that the kingdom was committed to continuing oil and gas exploration.

Four more years of cheap oil — OPEC

By - Dec 24,2015 - Last updated at Dec 24,2015

VIENNA — The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sees only a gradual improvement in the global oil crude market, with prices recovering to above $70 per barrel after four years, according to a report released Wednesday.

With the global benchmark oil price touching an 11-year low of $36.04 on Monday, the oil group which produces a third of the world's crude foresees a "gradual improvement in market conditions as growing demand and slower than previously expected non-OPEC supply growth eliminate the existing oversupply and lead to a more balanced market".

OPEC, in its annual World Oil Outlook report, bases its reference scenario on $70.70 for a barrel of crude in 2020 and $95 in 2040.

Those projections represent a sharp drop in market value compared to last year's report, which predicted a nominal price of $110 for the rest of this decade.

The oil market has been rife with drama over the past year and a half as OPEC abandoned its policy of cutting production to support prices, with the price of a barrel of crude plunging more than 60 per cent.

Led by Saudi Arabia, the group instead aimed to preserve its market shares and push out growing competition from higher-cost shale rock producers in the United States.

OPEC nations, which are highly dependent on oil for government revenues, may be in for a longer haul than they had bargained for initially.

The report sees shale oil production only starting to "plateau" at 5.6 million barrels per day by 2025 and then decline.

And low oil prices are only leading to short-term boost in demand.

"The impact of the recent oil price decline on demand is most visible in the short term. It then drops away over the medium term," noted the group.

It projected the world's total crude demand to hit 97.4 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, an increase of 500,000 barrels per day compared to its forecast from last year.

And while demand for OPEC oil is also set to increase more than previously forecast over the next five years, it will still remain below current production levels.

The group sees demand for its output reaching 30.7 million barrels per day by 2020, an increase of 1.7 million barrels compared to last year's projections. It is currently pumping 32 million barrels per day.

 

OPEC expects its current market share to increase by four points to 37 per cent by 2040.

Programmers create unlikely IT boom in Belarus

By - Dec 23,2015 - Last updated at Dec 23,2015

Minsk — Despite its state-controlled economy, Belarus has become an unexpected top performer in information technology (IT), with its programmers developing such worldwide hits as the World of Tanks game and mobile messenger app Viber.

More than 38,000 people work in the IT sector and the value of its companies' exports is growing by 40 to 50 per cent per year. It is expected to reach $800 million (740 million euros) this year.

The small ex-Soviet state of 9.5 million wedged between Russia and the European Union has been ruled by authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko for more than two decades, its moribund economy propped up by Moscow.

Yet Belarus has encouraged the growth of IT companies with tax breaks. The developers of computer programmes have relatively high salaries and have become an elite, one that is sometimes willing to voice political opposition.

It was Belarusian programmers along with Israelis with Belarusian roots who developed the Viber free phone call app, working for Viber Media, which was started by two Israelis and has now been sold to Japan's Rakuten.

The best-known Belarusian IT company, Game Stream, created the World of Tanks game, played by more than 100 million people around the world.

Viktor Novochadov, the director of Game Stream's studio Wargaming.net, spoke to AFP recently at an economic forum. An energetic man in a bright shirt and tie, he was bursting with enthusiasm about the prospects for Belarus.

He puts Belarus's computer technology skills down to the Soviet era, when the country housed "the most science-driven, advanced production and the most highly-qualified specialists".

 

Tax-free regime

 

The turning point for the IT industry came in 2005 when Belarus set up its Hi-Tech Park, where companies can work without paying any corporate taxes, Novochadov said.

"Many countries in the ex-Soviet space still have nothing similar to match our Hi-Tech Park," he added, noting that "these countries have already fallen far behind, maybe hopelessly behind."

"It's amazing, as often they have significantly more financial resources than we do, but as it turned out, that's not enough to develop the IT sphere successfully," he continued.

Almost entirely virtual, the Hi-Tech Park only has a handful of physical buildings close to the centre of Minsk. 

The rest of the 144 companies that are "residents" of the park have offices elsewhere in Minsk or in other cities. 

By offering career prospects and interesting projects, Belarus is now hiring programmers from abroad, Novochadov indicated. "Everything suits them here: the work, the pay and the prospects of career growth."

Ten per cent of employees at the tech park are German, French, British and South Korean, said its deputy director Alexander Martinkevich.

On the wall in his office is a map of Belarus where he marks the places he visits to give career talks on studying computer sciences, amid a shortage of qualified local staff.

 

'We are the intelligentsia’

 

At 24, Vadim is already a senior programmer at one of the companies in the Hi-Tech Park while still studying nights at university.

"I started programming in seventh grade. By the tenth grade, I realised this was going to be my work," he said.

He began working at 19 at a large company, one of the first developers of software support services.

His financial independence from the state also spells political independence, to some extent.

The programmer told AFP that he took part in an opposition rally ahead of October's presidential polls, but asked for his surname and company not to be mentioned.

"It's true that programmers took part in the protest against [a proposed] Russian military base, because we are the intelligentsia, and the intelligentsia should care about what happens in the country," he said.

"We aren't afraid we could get sacked. We will always find another job," said Vadim.

The in-demand Belarusian programmers, most of whom are under 30, enjoy a wide range of perks.

In a decade, the monthly salary for programmers at the tech park has risen from $236 to $2,000, higher than in other countries in the region, Martinkevich indicated.  "We are no longer seen as suppliers of cheap low-qualified labour."

The employees pay a fixed lower rate of income tax, 9 per cent instead of 13 per cent. 

They also get Western-style benefits packages, otherwise virtually unheard-of in Belarus whose economy is dependent on Russia and has had to devalue its currency several times to deal with the spillover from the Russian recession.

"As the country constantly devalues its currency and the economic crisis deepens, being a programmer in Belarus means making a success of yourself," said economist Pavel Daneiko

 

"These people have well-paid work, salaries pegged to the dollar and comfortable offices. They live in a different reality to the rest of Belarusians," he added.

Oil prices hit 11-year low as global supply balloons

By - Dec 22,2015 - Last updated at Dec 22,2015

A file photo taken on May 27, 2007, shows an oil rig in Tioga, North Dakota

NEW YORK — Brent crude oil prices hit their lowest in more than 11 years on Monday, while US crude flirted with seven-year lows on more signs that swelling global supply looked set to outpace tepid demand again next year.

Global oil production is running close to record highs and, with more barrels poised to enter the market from nations such as Iran and Libya, the price of crude is set for its largest monthly percentage decline in seven years.

Brent's premium over US crude narrowed further as the market braced for the end of a 40-year ban on US crude exports.

President Obama signed a law on Friday that will end the ban. US crude futures fell 53 cents at $34.20 by 1614 GMT after bouncing off an intraday low of $33.98.

Brent futures were down 61 cents at $36.27, falling as much as 2 per cent during the session to a low of $36.04 a barrel, its weakest since July 2004.

Brent has dropped nearly 19 per cent this month, its steepest fall since the collapse of failed US bank Lehman Brothers in October 2008. "The fundamentals are pretty bearish," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

"Warm temperatures are killing the markets right now and the oversupply is weighing on prices." Heating oil futures fell to their lowest since July 2004 as US and European weather modes forecast warmer-than-expected weather through year end.

While consumers have enjoyed lower fuel prices, the world's richest oil exporters have been forced to revalue their currencies, sell off assets and even issue debt for the first time in years as they struggle to repair their finances.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, will stick with its year-old policy of compensating for lower prices with higher production, and shows no signs of wavering, even though lower prices are painful to its poorer members. "With OPEC not in any mood to cut production... it does mean you are not going to get any rebalancing any time soon," Energy Aspects chief oil analyst Amrita Sen said.

"Having said that, long term of course, the lower prices are today, the rebalancing will become even stronger and steeper, because of the capex [oil groups' capital expenditure] cutbacks... but you're not going to see that until end-2016," he added. Oil market liquidity usually evaporates ahead of the holiday period, meaning that intra-day price moves can become exaggerated. Those moves may be further exacerbated by the expiration of the front-month WTI contract on Monday. 

'Sharing economy' goes global

By - Dec 20,2015 - Last updated at Dec 21,2015

A December 18 photo shows the Uber application running on a smartphone in Washington, DC (AFP photo by Mandel Ngan)

WASHINGTON — It's a new dawn for transport, lodging — and pretty much every service under the sun — and it's all about "sharing".

The so-called sharing economy gained traction across the globe in 2015 as Uber upended the taxi business, Airbnb disrupted the hotel sector and a host of online and mobile startups let people moonlight as chefs or handymen.

Many see great promise in the collaborative economy, starting with the people flocking to it as way to turn their car or apartment, spare time or hobby, into a source of revenue — with far great flexibility than a conventional job.

A PriceWaterhouse (PwC) study estimates that the "sharing" or "peer-to-peer" economy will explode from roughly $15 billion in worldwide revenues at the end of 2014 to $325 billion by 2025.

But critics worry the rising sector is an unregulated Wild West with few safeguards for either workers or consumers, and the trend has raised hackles from incumbents fearing for their survival — cue the taxi driver protests against Uber seen around the world.

Posting on the Uber forum under the handle DaveM, one driver describes a summer gig on Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, as idyllic.

"I'm making good money. If I put in the hours I can get 18 rides a day," he writes. "Beach all day drive at night=happiness."

But user tales of woe collected on a website called AirbnbHell, tell another side of the story.

One lodging guest recounts: "When I got to the house and met the folks they seemed cool. When I went out for dinner, they stole all my stuff and locked me out. To make it worse, they sent me an e-mail saying God bless, Jesus loves you."

Who stands to benefit? 

Facilitated by smartphones and geolocation technology, the sharing model offers consumers vastly expanded choices and often lower prices.

Spearheaded by giants like Uber, present in at least 67 countries, and Airbnb which operates in 190 countries including Cuba, peer-to-peer platforms have the potential "to radically upend both how we consume goods and how we work to afford them", said the PwC report.

Notable platforms include Task Rabbit (running errands), Hourly Nerds (computer consultants), Thumbtack (home repairs), Bon Appetour (home-cooked meals) and Washio (laundry). Services such as Instacart, Postmates and Grubhub deliver meals or groceries.

"I see this as one stage in a progression representing how digital technologies are changing how we organise work, which has been going on for 30 years," said New York University (NYU) professor Arun Sundararajan, who specialises in the subject.

In the United States alone, some 18 million workers now earn a significant portion of their income outside of traditional employment, according to MBO Partners. And a study by financial software group Intuit found that 80 per cent of large corporations plan to increase their use of a "flexible workforce" in coming years.

Sundararajan says his research suggests people in digital labour markets often earn more than in traditional jobs.

"The evidence I have seen is that wages tend to go up when the work is related to physical presence," as is the case with transportation, delivery or home services, he told AFP. With services that can be outsourced to distant locations, such as web design or translation, wages often fell.

The people who stand to benefit most, said the NYU professor, are those struggling to make ends meet, and who are at or below median income.

"These are people who can afford to take a vacation because they can rent their place on Airbnb, who can afford their car payments because they drive for a ridesharing service," he added.  

Backers say the sharing platforms are largely self-regulating: users review providers for quality, providing incentives for good service while weeding out the bad ones. 

But that view is not universal, with Edith Ramirez, chairwoman of the US Federal Trade Commission, arguing recently that "targeted regulatory measures may be needed to ensure that these new business models have appropriate consumer protections".

Short-term gig work 

While many willingly embrace the job flexibility, meanwhile, the lack of a social safety net has raised concerns as traditional employment increasingly gives way to short-term "gig" work.

Increasingly vocal critics worry that the protections of the traditional employer-worker relationship, hard-won over the course of decades, could be lost in the process.

"This trend shifts all economic risks onto workers. A downturn in demand, or sudden change in consumer needs, or a personal injury or sickness, can make it impossible to pay the bills," says former US labour secretary Robert Reich on his blog. 

"It eliminates labour protections such as the minimum wage, worker safety, family and medical leave, and overtime. And it ends employer-financed insurance — Social Security, workers' compensation, unemployment benefits, and employer-provided health insurance," Reich adds.

New ideas are springing up to address the problem of job security, with startups joining labour activists to endorse efforts for a "flexible safety net" for this new type of worker.

A research report by Cornell University's Seth Harris and Princeton's Alan Krueger endorses the notion of a new classification of "independent workers" with portable social benefits.

Proponents of the sharing economy argue, however, that the sector is moving so quickly that it would be a mistake to impose new regulations without careful consideration.

"It's not clear that we have found the new models of labour that will dominate in the 21st century," Sundararajan said. "We have to be cautious about rushing into regulation."

WTO agrees to abolish farm export subsidies

By - Dec 20,2015 - Last updated at Dec 20,2015

NAIROBI — World Trade Organisation (WTO) member countries agreed to abolish agricultural export subsidies after five days of talks in Nairobi, but failed to make progress on the long-stalled Doha round of negotiations aimed at lowering global trade barriers.

The 162-member body, meeting in Africa for the first time, on Saturday said a deal had been reached on the issue of farm export subsidies, with developed nations committing to remove their subsidies immediately and developing nations set to eliminate theirs by 2018.

WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo in a statement hailed the agreement as the "most significant outcome on agriculture" in the organisation's 20-year history.

US trade representative, Michael Froman, said the deal would "help level the playing field for American farmers and ranchers".

"The WTO's actions in this area will put an end to some of the most trade distorting subsidies in existence and demonstrates what is possible when the multilateral trading system comes together to solve a problem," he added.

The European Commission also praised the "landmark deal" as "good for fairer global trade".

"For those who had doubts, it proves the relevance of the WTO and its capacity to deliver results," EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem said in a statement.

But the conference failed to mend stubborn divisions between poor and rich nations over how to overcome the Doha deadlock and even an additional, unscheduled fifth day of meetings in the Kenyan capital did nothing to end the impasse. 

The final declaration adopted Saturday said "many members" reaffirmed their "full commitment to conclude" the Doha Development Agenda goals. 

But it added: "Other members do not reaffirm the Doha mandates, as they believe new approaches are necessary to achieve meaningful outcomes in multilateral negotiations."

"Members have different views on how to address the negotiations," it continued.

The Doha round of trade negotiations was launched to great fanfare in the Qatari capital in 2001 with the aim of helping developing countries grow through improved trade access.

But since then, industrialised and developing nations have time and again failed to agree on the level of cuts on industrial good tariffs and agriculture subsidies.

The Nairobi gathering also agreed on a timetable for implementing a deal on getting rid of import duties on 201 high-tech products, whose annual trade is estimated at over $1.3 billion (1.2 billion euros) a year.

 

Two new countries, Liberia and Afghanistan, joined the WTO club last week, bringing the total number of members to 164.

Emerging powers rise in IMF as US unblocks reforms

By - Dec 19,2015 - Last updated at Dec 19,2015

US President Barack Obama signs the $1.1 trillion government funding bill into law at the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on Friday (Reuters photo)

WASHINGTON — China, India and Russia will soon speak with a louder voice at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

After years of opposition, the US Congress has dismantled the final barrier to reforms that will give the emerging-market powers more say in the affairs of the 188-nation global crisis lender.

The IMF reforms are part of a $1.1 trillion spending package approved by Congress on Friday, and signed into law by President Barack Obama.

Adopted in 2010 by the international community, the reforms were expected to take effect in 2012.

But with the United States holding by far the largest share of voting rights at the IMF, Congress' refusal to approve the reforms had held up their implementation, to the consternation of IMF management and members.

The blockage has been a sore point between President Barack Obama's Democratic administration and the opposition Republicans who control Congress.

Republicans had rejected the slightest favourable gesture towards the multinational organisation, the object of some criticism in Washington for its largesse toward Greece.

In recent years, international summits have unfailingly included a pointed reminder about the stalled reform process — seen as all the more frustrating since the United States was among the first countries to call for an IMF overhaul in 2010 amid the global financial crisis.

At the end of their last summit in mid-November in Turkey, the Group of 20 economic powers said in a statement that they "remain deeply disappointed" with the delay in reforms and "we urge the United States to ratify these reforms as soon as possible".

The long stall also led the so-called BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to set up an economic alternative, launching in July 2014 their own monetary fund and development bank.

The US approval will likely ease their frustrations with the 70-year-old IMF, dominated by the US, Europe and Japan, as well as remove a major headache for the Obama administration.

"The IMF reforms reinforce the central leadership role of the United States in the global economic system and demonstrate our commitment to maintaining that position," US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said in a statement.

 

IMF credibility on line 

 

The reforms, however, are crucial for the IMF itself. They double the crisis lender's permanent financial resources, known as quotas, to some $660 billion.

The green light by Congress thus paves the way for the IMF to abandon some makeshift mechanisms it had adopted to keep its finances afloat and finance rescues of members in crisis.

But above all, it allows the Washington-based institution, founded in 1945, to better reflect the current interconnectedness of the world economy, exposed in stark relief during the 2008-2009 global crisis.  

The measures slightly reshuffle the IMF executive board by reducing the representation of advanced economies, particularly in Europe, to give a greater voice to dynamic emerging powers.

Currently China, the world's second-largest economy, has less than 4 per cent of voting rights at the IMF, only slightly less than Italy whose economy is five times smaller.

After the reforms are implemented, China will see its voting rights nearly double to over 6 per cent, the largest gain. For example, India's weight will rise from 2.3 per cent to 2.6 per cent.

The US action also hands a personal victory to the managing director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who has been pushing hard for the changes to preserve the credibility of the fund.

Lagarde once joked she would "do belly-dancing" if needed to get US ratification.

"The United States Congress approval of these reforms is a welcome and crucial step forward that will strengthen the IMF in its role of supporting global financial stability," Lagarde said.

Still, the reforms will not resolve all the representation problems at the IMF. With 16.5 per cent of voting rights, the United States remains the largest stakeholder and continues to hold veto power.

"The IMF reforms remove a stain on the institution's legitimacy," Eswar Prasad, a former IMF official, said. "However, the scars caused by the protracted delay in having these reforms ratified and put into operation will not be easily erased.

Also on Friday, The US Congress voted to repeal the 40-year-old ban on exporting US crude oil in an energy policy shift sought by Republicans as part of a bipartisan deal that also provided unprecedented tax incentives for wind and solar power.

The Senate, on a 65-33 vote, approved lifting the ban and providing five-year extensions of tax breaks to boost renewable energy development as part of a $1.8 trillion government spending and tax relief bill.

The House of Representatives passed legislation containing the energy provisions earlier in the day by a 316-113 tally.

The energy deal was hammered out in secret talks among congressional leaders over two weeks.

Senators Lisa Murkowski, a Alaska Republican, and Democrats Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico had worked for more than a year to get the deal.

Democrats who backed the deal asserted that its provisions encouraging renewable energy were important for combating global climate change.

"This is the biggest deal for addressing climate change that we are going to see," Heinrich said in an interview.

Heinrich added that Democrats may not have been able to get a better deal even if they controlled both chambers of Congress, now led by Republicans. Many Republicans have opposed Democratic proposals to address climate change.

Congress, concerned about US dependence on imported oil,  imposed the crude oil export ban after the Arab oil embargo of the early 1970s that sent gasoline prices soaring and contributed to runaway inflation. Arab members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed the embargo following the US decision to re-supply the Israeli military during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

Drillers have said lifting the ban would increase US oil security and give Washington's allies in Europe and Asia an alternative source of crude beyond OPEC and Russia. The bill could benefit oil companies including Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips and Chevron.

Opponents of lifting the export ban said the action would harm the environment and could lead to an increase in fiery derailments of crude-carrying trains.

Due to a global glut in oil supplies, lifting the ban is not expected to lead to significant US export shipments for months or even years, but could give crude producers the increased flexibility they coveted.

 

Oil boom

 

Drillers said continuing the ban would choke a boom in shale oil production since 2008 particularly in North Dakota and Texas that has pushed domestic oil prices down from more than $100 a barrel to below $40.

Lifting the ban was "particularly important at a time when our industry is experiencing a period of extreme volatility and uncertainty", Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer of ConocoPhillips, said in a statement.

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi and some others in her party had expressed concern that allowing US oil exports would hurt independent refiners by raising the price of domestic crude to international prices.

Tom O'Malley, executive chairman of refiner PBF Energy, said lifting the ban would lead at least one East Coast refinery to shut down, adding that his refineries in New Jersey and Delaware are less exposed.

"This is a crazy thing to do," O'Malley added. "Once you lift it, it's hard to reverse it."

Democrats in the Senate had secured some protections for independent refiners, allowing them to deduct transportation costs for gasoline and other fuels they make.

Pelosi on Friday said Democrats walked away with a victory, in the trade of oil exports for environmental goals.

She indicated that the environmental damage from exporting oil would be offset by 10 times because of measures in the bill such as the renewable power tax credits, funding of a parks conservation fund paid for with oil revenues and the elimination of measures that would have dismantled Obama's clean power rules on power plants.

"Now that we have leveled the playing field, the United States finally has an opportunity to compete and realise our nation's full potential as a global energy superpower," said George Baker, head of Producers for American Crude Oil Exports, a group that formed last year to press lawmakers to open the trade.

At more than 2,000 pages long, the spending portion of the bill funds the government through next September, preventing a shutdown and effectively taking difficult budget disputes off the table as the 2016 presidential campaign enters the primary season.

Most of the US senators running for the White House voted against the bill, including Republicans Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and Democrat Bernie Sanders. Republican Lindsey Graham voted in favour. Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who had been criticised by campaign rivals for missing votes, was absent from Congress on Friday.

Dozens of previously temporary tax breaks will now be permanent under the tax segment of the bill, which will cost $680 billion over 10 years and was promoted by corporate lobbyists and low-tax Republicans.

Middle-class Americans also gain. Students, low-income parents and teachers will receive tax aid, attracting support for the legislation from the White House and congressional Democrats.

"I'm not wild about everything in it," Obama said of the legislation. "I'm sure that's true for everybody. But it is a budget that, as I insisted, invests in our military and our middle class without ideological provisions that would have weakened Wall Street reform or rules on big polluters."

 

Deficit worries

 

Some Republicans worry that the $1.15 trillion spending provisions add to the federal budget deficit and erode the fiscal discipline that House Republicans have championed, particularly since lawmakers aligned with the conservative Tea Party movement did well in 2010 congressional elections.

But Tea Party momentum has slowed as the federal deficit drops from its peak of $1.41 trillion in 2009 due to the economic recovery. The deficit was $439 billion for the fiscal year that ended on September 30.

The congressional Joint Committee on Taxation estimates the legislation passed on Friday will increase the 2016 fiscal year budget deficit by $157 billion and by $95 billion in 2017.

Tim Huelskamp of Kansas, a leading House Republican fiscal hawk, said the bill was "an early Christmas present for Donald Trump", the billionaire businessman seeking the Republican presidential nomination, because it will fuel the anti-establishment mood in the country.

Conservatives complained that Republican leaders agreed on the bill's spending and tax provisions behind closed doors and then rushed the bill through the Senate on Friday morning.

"A rotten process yields a rotten result, and this 2,000-page, trillion-dollar bill is rotten to its core," Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said. "Corporate lobbyists had a field day, but working Americans lost out."

Some Democrats criticised the tax cuts, saying they give more aid to large corporations and wealthy business owners than to working families.

 

The largest component of the tax package is the business research and development tax credit, which will cost $113 billion over a decade in lost government revenues.

EBRD, local banks support Ayla Village

By - Dec 19,2015 - Last updated at Dec 19,2015

AMMAN —  The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced Saturday in a press sattement that it has  teamed up with Capital Bank of Jordan and Societé Générale Jordan to support the Ayla Oasis project. 

"The EBRD will provide a $60 million loan, while the two commercial banks will contribute $20 million each, for the development of Ayla Village, which will serve as the vibrant hub of Ayla Oasis," the statement said.

"Investments include the construction of a public promenade merging the old centre of Aqaba with the planned souk area as a new meeting place for locals and visitors, offering modern retail and entertainment space," it added.

"Two new hotels will serve locals as well as international visitors and one will be managed by Hyatt International Corporation, a leading global brand in the tourism and hospitality industry. EBRD President Suma Chakrabarti said:“We are proud to support a project that will develop Jordan’s potential as a tourism destination, one of the country’s major assets.

In particular, this will be done in an economically, environmentally and socially sustainable way. We are confident that this investment will help Aqaba become a prime destination on the Red Sea.”

US economy 'source of strength' for others — Federal Reserve chief

By - Dec 17,2015 - Last updated at Dec 17,2015

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen conceded Wednesday the Fed's rate increase could hurt some emerging economies, but that it represents a strong US economy that is good for global growth.

"There can be negative spillovers through capital flows, but remember, there are also positive spillovers from a strong US economy," Yellen said shortly after announcing the Fed's first rate increase in over nine years.

"This action takes place in the context of a US economy that is doing well, and is a source of strength to the emerging markets and other economies around the globe," she added.

After holding its benchmark rate near zero in a crisis stance since December 2008, the Fed increased the rate by a quarter-point to 0.25-0.5 per cent on Wednesday and projected as much as another 1 percentage point climb over the next year.

That can raise borrowing costs for foreign governments and businesses with significant dollar exposure, even as many face slower economic growth.

While the prospects for tighter US monetary policy have already spurred capital outflows and currency falls in many emerging market economies, Yellen said the move was strongly telegraphed.

"I think this move has been expected and well-communicated, at least I hope that it has. So I don't think it's a surprise," she added in a press conference.

"We have made a commitment to emerging-market policy makers that we would do our best to communicate as clearly as we could about our policy intentions, to avoid spillovers that might result from abrupt or unanticipated policy moves," Yellen elaborated.

She noted that many emerging economies are stronger than they were in the 1990s, and are better-positioned to deal with the US policy tightening today.

"On the other hand, there are vulnerabilities there, and there are countries that have been badly affected by declining commodity prices," she said. "So we will monitor this very carefully, but we have taken care to avoid unnecessary negative spillovers."

"With the economy performing well and expected to continue to do so, the committee judges that a modest increase in the federal funds rate is appropriate," Yellen told Journalists after the rate decision was announced. "The economic recovery has clearly come a long way."

The Fed's policy statement noted the "considerable improvement" in the US labour market, where the unemployment rate has fallen to 5 per cent, and said policymakers are "reasonably confident" inflation will rise over the medium term to the Fed's 2 per cent objective.

The central bank made clear the rate hike was a tentative beginning to a "gradual" tightening cycle, and that in deciding its next move it would put a premium on monitoring inflation, which remains mired below target.

"The process is likely to proceed gradually," Yellen said, a hint that further hikes will be slow in coming.

She added that policymakers were hoping for a slow rise in rates but one that will keep the Fed ahead of the curve as the economic recovery continues. 

"To keep the economy moving along the growth path it is on ... we would like to avoid a situation where we have left so much [monetary] accommodation in place for so long we have to tighten abruptly," Yellen elaborated.

New economic projections from Fed policymakers were largely unchanged from September, with unemployment anticipated to fall to 4.7 per cent next year and economic growth hitting 2.4 per cent.

The Fed statement and its promise of a gradual path represented a compromise between policymakers who have been ready to raise rates for months and those who feel the economy is still at risk from weak inflation and slow global growth.

"The Fed is going out of its way to assure markets that, by embarking on a 'gradual' path, this will not be your traditional interest rate cycle," said Mohamed Al Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz.

Fed officials said they were confident the situation was ripe for them to make a historic turn in policy without much disruption to financial markets, which had expected the hike this week.

Yellen on Wednesday said the Fed had no desire to curb consumers from spending or businesses from investing. She emphasised that interest rates remained low even after the rate hike, near levels economists regard as appropriate for a recession.

"Policy remains accommodative," Yellen said. "The US economy has shown considerable strength. Domestic spending has continued to hold up."

Fed policy makers' median projected target interest rate for 2016 remained 1.375 per cent, implying four quarter-point hikes next year. Based on short-term interest rate futures markets, traders expect the next rate hike in April.

A December 9 Reuters poll showed economists forecasting the federal funds rate to be 1.0 per cent to 1.25 per cent by the end of 2016 and 2.25 per cent by the end of 2017.

The rate hike sets off an immediate test of new financial tools designed by the New York Fed for just this occasion, as well as a likely reshuffling of global capital as the reality of rising US rates sets in.

To edge the target rate from its current near-zero level to between 0.25 per cent and 0.5 per cent, the Fed said it would set the interest it pays banks on excess reserves at 0.5 per cent, and would offer up to $2 trillion in reverse repurchase agreements, an aggressive figure that shows its resolve to pull rates higher.

 

The impact on business and household borrowing costs is unclear.

Global trade talks open with call to fight poverty, diversify economies

By - Dec 15,2015 - Last updated at Dec 15,2015

Kenyan Chuka dancers entertain delegates during the official opening of the tenth WTO ministerial conference in Nairobi, Kenya, Tuesday (AP photo)

NAIROBI — Global trade talks opened Tuesday with host Kenya highlighting their role in combating poverty, and urging African nations to diversify their economies.

War-torn Afghanistan and Ebola-ravaged Liberia are set to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO) as it holds a ministerial conference in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, its first such meeting on African soil.

Leading experts have doubted the  meeting's chances of breathing new life into current trade talks, but Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta still called the gathering "historic and crucial".

"This conference will boost trade and investment, create employment and ultimately contribute to poverty eradication," he said in a welcome message.

He also stressed the need for African countries to diversify their economies.

"National, regional and multilateral policy choices that we make will matter," Kenyatta added. "The choices and positions we take will have consequences."

Security is tight for the conference, with some 6,000 delegates in Nairobi.

 

'Breakthrough seems unlikely' 

 

The four-day Nairobi meeting comes two years after ministers from WTO member countries reached a landmark deal in Bali on overhauling global customs procedures.

The 2013 pact was the first multilateral agreement concluded by the WTO since its inception in 1995, and also the first concrete progress since the Doha round of trade liberalisation talks began. 

"We took 18 years to deliver our first multilateral agreement in Bali, that's way too long, we can't wait another 18 years to deliver again," WTO chief Roberto Azevedo told reporters Tuesday.

But there are few signs that countries will be able build on the momentum gained in Bali to carve out even a limited deal in Nairobi.

"I think if we go out of Nairobi with renewed confidence and with a common vision for the future that will be a fundamental achievement," Azevedo said.

Insiders say negotiators will focus on trying to nail down a partial deal focused on agriculture export competition and trade development in the world's poorest nations, but admit the chances of succeeding are shaky at best. 

 

Agriculture, export subsidy deals? 

 

"It will attempt to deliver on the elusive agreements of the Doha Development Agenda, and deal with controversies over agricultural subsidies and market access for developing countries," the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM) think tank said.

"However, despite previous efforts, scant progress has been made and a breakthrough at Nairobi seems unlikely," it added.

WTO Deputy Director David Shark was more upbeat, saying it was hoped that deals would be struck on agriculture, export subsidies and food security, and that there would be a debate on the nature of international trade.

"There is a very broad issue that members are discussing: how do we conduct trade negotiations in the future," he said.

"Do we continue in the same vein as we have under the umbrella of the Doha round? Or do we look for new and different ways? That is a very contentious issue amongst our members," Shark added.

Kenyan Foreign Minister Amina Mohammed, who is chairing the conference, has warned that a failure to strike a deal, requiring every member's agreement, would raise questions about the negotiating role of the WTO.

"We will need to either fix it, agree on a new way of negotiating or maybe agree to remove it," she said.

 

Ceremonies for the accession of Liberia are expected to be held on December 16, with the accession of Afghanistan a day later, the WTO said.

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