World

BERLIN — German voters head to the polls in a winter election on Sunday but may not have a new government until the spring.

The confident frontrunner Friedrich Merz has said he's aiming for an Easter deadline and urged potential allies to get ready for speedy talks.

But arduous coalition negotiations tend to drag on for weeks if not months in Germany, spelling long stretches of political paralysis before a new chancellor takes charge.

"If we spend weeks, possibly months, possibly with party conferences and even member surveys then the period in which this country is without a majority capable of governing will be too long for me," he said in a Politico interview this week.

In Berlin, a bulging in-tray of challenges awaits whoever is the next leader, from a stagnating economy to the Ukraine war and an increasingly hostile Trump administration.

Current polls give the conservative CDU-CSU alliance of Merz a strong lead over Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD).

But the surveys also suggest that Merz's Party, now polling around 30 per cent, would need a junior coalition partner to gain a parliamentary majority.

Merz could potentially opt to work with Scholz's centre-left SPD in a so-called "grand coalition" of the two big-tent parties, known as the "GroKo" in German.

Scholz — whose own motley alliance with the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) broke up in November — would not be expected to personally join such a government.

Alternatively, a victorious Merz could invite the Greens into an alliance, but this so far has been strongly opposed by the CDU's Bavarian sister party the CSU.

Marathon talks 

Attempting to forge any such pact forces former campaign trail foes to quickly make nice. The parties first engage in exploratory talks before moving on to full coalition negotiations.

Scholz in 2021 needed 10 weeks from polling day to form his government with the Greens and the FDP.

Tired-looking selfies posted by party leaders during the marathon talks attested to the arduous work to forge a coalition of unprecedented complexity.

But the time span was "within the usual range", said Uwe Jun, political science professor at Trier University.

Coalition agreements are highly detailed and have a "contractual character", said Dorothee de Neve, politics professor at Justus Liebig University, but have long been a "feature of German politics".

The longest wait came in 2017, when it took Angela Merkel's conservatives some six months to forge a GroKo with the SPD.

Merkel's initial attempt at a coalition with the Greens and FDP spectacularly failed, prolonging the wait.

'Divided society' 

Once staid German politics have been disrupted by the over decade-long rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party, now polling around 20 per cent.

Although all other parties have vowed not to govern with the anti-immigration AfD, its popularity has eroded their voter support.

A wild card in the election is whether a number of smaller parties will cross the 5-per cent threshold to enter parliament or be cast into oblivion.

The FDP and the upstart far-left BSW are fighting for their lives around the five percent death zone, while the other small leftist party Die Linke has polled somewhat higher in recent days.

Jun said that forming another grand coalition would "not be simple", given their "clear differences" especially on social and economic policy.

Nonetheless, the two mainstream parties have ruled together in three of the last five governments — a trend decried by the AfD, which labels them the establishment or "system parties".

When the ballots are counted, "fragmentation could produce a historically fractured parliament", said Michael Broening of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

"Regardless of the parliamentary makeup, social fragmentation is likely to persist," he told AFP.

"This will make coalition-building more challenging — not only within parliament but also in terms of broader engagement with an increasingly divided society."

UNITED NATIONS, UNITED STATES — The M23 armed group is advancing on strategic zones in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo after taking two key cities, the United Nations warned on Wednesday, underscoring the threat of a regional conflict.

Recent weeks have seen the rapid progression of the Rwanda-backed M23, which has seized vast tracts of the eastern DRC, including the cities of Goma and Bukavu on Lake Kivu.

Bukavu on the southern side fell on Sunday, weeks after fighters captured the city of Goma in the north, giving them total control of the lake that sits in between the cities.

"If our information is correct, (the M23) continues to advance towards other strategic areas in North and South Kivu," the UN Secretary-General's special envoy for the Great Lakes region, Huang Xia, told the Security Council.

He said that while the "deep intentions of the M23 and their support" remains unknown, "the risk of a regional conflagration is more real than ever," adding that such a conflict would have "catastrophic" consequences.

"History is repeating itself," he warned, noting that "as dramatic as the situation seems to us today, it can still get worse."

The fighting in recent weeks has raised fears of a repeat of the Second Congo War, from 1998 to 2003, which drew in multiple African countries and resulted in millions of deaths from violence, disease and starvation.

The head of the UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC [MONUSCO], Bintou Keita, also expressed concern about the advance of the M23, now "at the junction of the three borders between the DRC, Rwanda and Burundi."

She denounced the "severe restrictions" on MONUSCO's movements imposed by the M23, which "controls all roads entering or leaving the areas under its control."

She underscored that "the human rights situation in North and South Kivu has deteriorated considerably."

Keita cited enforced recruitment by armed groups, looting, displacement and "searches of hospitals and houses by the M23 in search of soldiers and civilians perceived as opposed to the group."

 'All-out war'

The DRC foreign minister, Therese Kayikwamba Wagner, again accused Rwanda of causing carnage and seeking to oust her government by force, while denouncing the UN for failing to intercede.

"This council must act. It can no longer remain a silent witness to an unfolding tragedy nor hide behind a declaration of intent," the minister said.

The DRC is calling for sanctions against Rwandan military and political leaders, an embargo on Rwandan exports of natural resources and a ban on Rwandan forces taking part in UN peacekeeping operations.

The acting US ambassador, Dorothy Shea, backed the last demand at least in part, saying the UN "should reevaluate Rwanda's ability to participate constructively in UN peacekeeping."

She added: "It is beyond time for this Council, the UN, and international community to marshal a strong and unambiguous response to M23 and Rwandan actions which undermine prospects for peace and bring the region closer to the brink of an all-out war."

KYIV — Outgunned Ukrainian forces have slowly lost territory to Russian troops over recent weeks. But in the capital Kyiv, the ground is shifting rapidly beneath President Volodymyr Zelensky's feet.

US President Donald Trump, his most powerful yet unpredictable ally, has called into question years of staunch support from Washington by amplifying a string of dangerous and false Kremlin propaganda talking points.

Trump described Zelensky as a corrupt "dictator" and falsely claimed he was no longer Ukraine's legitimate leader, all as Russian troops are clawing forward across the sprawling front line.

"Zelensky is not well prepared to deal with these two challenges at once," said Silvester Nosenko, an international relations lecturer in Kyiv and former interpreter for the Ukrainian leader.

Zelensky must now race to come up with new arguments to convince Trump that Ukraine matters, he added, even as Russian and US officials press ahead with talks to lay the ground for peace.

"But there isn't much time for that," Nosenko told AFP.

Zelensky, a former comedian, won accolades abroad and drew comparisons with Winston Churchill when he remained in Kyiv in February 2022 to lead his country against the Russian invasion.

In his escalating confrontation with Trump, Zelensky looks ready for another fight.

He called off an official visit to Saudi Arabia this week to avoid any unplanned encounters with US officials who one day earlier broke years of American protocol by sitting down for talks with Russia.

 'Align with Russia?'

On his return to Kyiv, he accused Washington of helping Putin come out of isolation and said Trump was trapped in a Russian "disinformation" bubble.

And in Turkey this week, Zelensky evoked Ukrainian resistance in the first days of the invasion when it had its back to the wall and the Kremlin was demanding they capitulate and surrender.

"If we didn't go for all these ultimatums at the most difficult moment, why is there a feeling that now Ukraine will go for it?" he said.

The head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Mylovanov, said the rhetoric from Washington was "not pleasant" but said Trump may just be seeking leverage over Zelensky.

"It still depends on what Trump really has in mind. Does he want to align with Russia?" he told AFP.

A source in the Ukrainian presidency said there was no panic within Zelensky's office and described the standoff as "tolerable", given that Kyiv had made contingency plans for a combative relationship with Trump.

"The country wants peace, but not at the cost of humiliation," the source told AFP.

Still, the deepening crisis for Zelensky abroad comes as the Ukrainian leader's problems mount at home too.

The 47-year-old who shot to power in 2019 has seen his approval ratings plummet, compared to the beginning of the war when they skyrocketed upwards of 90 percent.

KAMPALA — Uganda said on Wednesday its troops have "taken control" of security in the city of Bunia in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, working with Congolese forces to fend off local militias.

The move came as the Rwanda-backed M23 armed group has been seizing territory further south in the neighbouring North and South Kivu provinces, raising fears of a regional war.

"Working with our Congolese counterparts, Uganda sent troops to Bunia and the forces of the two countries have taken control of the security situation to stop further killings," Uganda's Foreign Minister Henry Oryem told AFP.

Bunia is the capital of Ituri province, where Uganda already had thousands of troops under an agreement with Kinshasa.

They operate alongside DRC forces against the Allied Democratic Forces,  which has been linked to the Islamic State group,  and tribal militias.

Oryem said the deployment aimed to "deal with armed elements including the remnants of Allied Democratic Forces who may still be active in areas under our cooperation agreement".

Oryem and the defence ministry declined to give the exact number of Ugandan troops deployed in Bunia or say whether the country planned to send additional troops to the city.

Military sources and analysts have said that Uganda has between 5,000 and 7,000 troops there.

Ugandan military spokesman Felix Kulayigye told AFP on Tuesday the country had deployed along with DRC forces in "joint operations to save lives" after "massacres" by local militias.

But in the highly complex dynamics of the region, Uganda has also been accused, by UN experts and others, of working against Congolese interests by supporting the M23 and controlling some of the region's valuable mining interests. 

Uganda has strongly denied the accusations.

A senior analyst at South Africa-based consultancy Signal Risk, Daniel van Dalen, judged that for the time being the Ugandan move was "a very localised issue".

"I don't think right now it has anything to do with the M23 conflict," he told AFP.

"Uganda is quite far away from where M23 is for the moment."

But with various other groups involved in the unrest in the region, he said, "Uganda is worried about a spillover into its territory and it's willing to help out".

Moscow — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday said that his country needed to build trust with the United States in order to resolve the Ukraine conflict.

"It is impossible to solve many issues, including the Ukrainian crisis, without increasing the level of trust between Russia and the United States," Putin said in a televised meeting with journalists in Saint Petersburg.

Putin said that a brigade of Russian troops had crossed into Ukrainian territory overnight, suggesting a ground attack on Ukraine's Sumy region for the first time since Russia retreated from there in 2022.

"I was told an hour ago that at night fighters of the 810th brigade crossed the border of the Russian Federation and Ukraine and entered the territory of the enemy," Putin said in televised remarks, referring to a brigade state media reported was deployed to Russia's Kursk region near the border with Ukraine's Sumy region.

President Donald Trump sniped at Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky Tuesday and effectively blamed him for Moscow's invasion -- even as he said he was more confident of a deal to end the war after US-Russia talks.

Trump increased pressure on Zelensky to hold elections -- echoing one of Moscow's key demands -- and chided the Ukrainian for complaining about being frozen out of talks in Saudi Arabia.

The US president also suggested that he could meet Russian President Vladimir Putin before the end of the month as Washington overhauls its stance towards Russia in a shift that has alarmed European leaders.

"I'm very disappointed, I hear that they're upset about not having a seat," Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida when asked about the Ukrainian reaction.

"Today I heard, 'oh, well, we weren't invited.' Well, you've been there for three years... You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he said.

Zelensky had earlier Tuesday criticised the US-Russia talks for excluding Kyiv, saying efforts to end the war must be "fair" and involve European countries, while postponing his own trip to Saudi Arabia.

The Ukrainian leader's comments appeared to incense Trump, who proceeded to launch a series of attacks on Zelensky, who has led Kyiv's fight against Russia's February 2022 invasion.

Asked whether the United States would support demands that Russia wanted to force Zelensky to hold new elections as part of any deal, Trump began by criticising what he said were the Ukrainian's approval ratings. 

"They want a seat at the table, but you could say... wouldn't the people of Ukraine have a say? It's been a long time since we've had an election," said Trump.

"That's not a Russian thing, that's something coming from me, from other countries."

Zelensky was elected in 2019 for a five-year term, but has remained in office as Ukraine is still under martial law.

VATICAN CITY — Pope Francis has "stable" conditions with his blood tests showing a "slight improvement", the Vatican said Wednesday, as the 88-year-old pontiff undergoes ongoing treatment for bronchitis in both lungs. 

"The clinical conditions of the Holy Father are stable. The blood tests, evaluated by the medical staff, show a slight improvement, particularly in inflammatory indices," the Vatican said in a statement. 

Earlier on Wednesday, a Vatican source said that Pope Francis's heart is holding up very well despite his pneumonia,  amid growing concerns over the hospitalised 88-year-old's condition.

The pontiff was admitted to a Rome hospital with bronchitis last week after suffering breathing difficulties, but the Holy See revealed on Tuesday evening that he had developed pneumonia in both of his lungs.

"The pope spent a peaceful night, woke up and had breakfast," the Vatican said Wednesday after Francis's fifth night at the Gemelli hospital, which has a suite reserved especially for popes.

"The pope is breathing on his own. His heart is holding up very well," a source in the Vatican said.

Francis has been speaking to friends by telephone, has been out of bed and sitting in a chair, and working on and off, the source said.

On Tuesday, the Vatican had reported that Francis was in "good spirits".

But in a evening medical bulletin, it warned that "the laboratory tests, chest X-ray, and the Holy Father's clinical condition continue to present a complex picture".

A "polymicrobial infection" which has come on top of "bronchiectasis and asthmatic bronchitis, and which required the use of cortisone antibiotic therapy, makes therapeutic treatment more complex", the Vatican said.

"The follow-up chest CT scan which the Holy Father underwent this afternoon... demonstrated the onset of bilateral pneumonia, which required additional drug therapy," it added.

The pontiff had part of his right lung cut away when he was 21, after developing pleurisy that almost killed him.

The Vatican has cancelled a papal audience on Saturday and said the pope would not attend a mass on Sunday, although it has yet to announce plans for his weekly Angelus prayer, which is held on Sunday at midday.

 'Delicate situation' 

Candles, some with pictures of the pope on them, have been set at the bottom of a statue of Pope John Paul II outside the Gemelli hospital, where pilgrims have been coming to pray.

"I came to say a prayer for the pope so that he may recover soon. I send him my best wishes", Jacqueline Troncoso, a Bolivian resident in Rome, told AFP.

The Vatican published drawings made by children in the hospital for Francis, as well as letters from parents asking him to pray for their sick offspring.

Francis, the head of the Catholic Church since 2013, was admitted to hospital after struggling for several days to read his texts in public.

Jesuit theologian Antonio Spadaro, who is close to Francis, told Italy's Corriere della Sera daily the pope could be in hospital for two to three weeks.

"It is clear that the situation is delicate, but I have not perceived any form of alarmism," he said.

The pope "has an extraordinary vital energy. He is not a person who lets himself go, he is not a resigned man. And that is a very positive element, we have seen that in the past", he said.

The pneumonia is the latest of a series of health issues for the Jesuit, who has undergone hernia and colon surgery since 2021 and uses a wheelchair due to pain in his knee.

The pope has left open the option of resigning if he became unable to carry out his duties.

But in a memoir last year he said it was just a "distant possibility" that would be justified only in the event of "a serious physical impediment".