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Central banks 'must act resolutely' to lower inflation — IMF

IMF points to an unusually challenging financial stability environment

By - Oct 11,2022 - Last updated at Oct 11,2022

International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Tobias Adrian speaks during an event at the IMF headquarters, on Tuesday (AFP photo)

WASHINGTON — Central banks should "act resolutely to bring inflation back to target" after figures hit multi-decade highs, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday, pointing to an unusually challenging financial stability environment.

The comments by the Washington-based crisis lender in its latest Global Financial Stability Report come as its annual meetings start this week, fully in-person for the first time since 2019.

The meetings open in a challenging period for the global economy, as surging prices and rising interest rates threaten to reverberate around the globe while countries emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.

But to keep inflation pressures from becoming "entrenched", central banks should act firmly to bring down the figures, the IMF's report said on Tuesday.

This echoes earlier comments from the fund's chief Kristalina Georgieva, who said last week that it is too soon to pull back as the risk of not doing enough is bigger than that of doing too much.

Supply chain problems were already prevalent as demand surged after the pandemic slowdown, fueling inflation worldwide, and the strains worsened after Russia's invasion of Ukraine which sent food and energy prices surging.

Clear communication about policymakers' commitments will be crucial to "preserve credibility and avoid unwarranted market volatility", the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

But it acknowledged that both advanced and emerging economies are facing heightened problems.

Global markets are showing strains as investors become more risk-averse during heightened economic and policy uncertainty, said IMF financial counsellor Tobias Adrian in a blog post.

He added that financial asset prices have fallen with tightening monetary policy, while the economic outlook has worsened and recession fears have risen.

In particular, the "faltering property sector in many countries raises concerns about risks that could broaden and spill over into banks and the macroeconomy," he cautioned.

China, for example, saw its property sector downturn deepen as home sales slumped during the COVID-19 outbreak and worsened developers' liquidity woes.

And real estate developer failures could in turn hit the banking sector, including some small banks, the IMF report noted.

Meanwhile, emerging markets face risks ranging from high borrowing costs and inflation, along with volatile commodity markets, the fund said.

Syrian pound hits record low on black market

By - Oct 11,2022 - Last updated at Oct 11,2022

DAMASCUS — Syria's pound hit a new low against the dollar on the black market Tuesday, according to websites monitoring the exchange rate, in the latest blow to the war-battered economy.

The exchange rate reached more than 5,000 Syrian pounds to the US dollar for the first time since the start of the conflict more than a decade ago, the websites said.

Syria's official exchange rate has stood at around 3,015 pounds to the greenback since September — compared to 47 pounds to the dollar before the war.

The new unofficial rate means the currency is now worth almost 99 per cent less on the black market than the official rate before the start of the conflict. 

Syria's economy has been battered by more than a decade of war, and is reeling from the knock-on effects of a financial crisis in neighbouring Lebanon that has stemmed the flow of dollars into government-held areas.

The collapse of the pound has driven up the price of goods and aggravated hardship.

The vast majority of Syria's population lives below the poverty line, the United Nation says.

An estimated 12.4 million people — about 60 per cent of Syria's population — suffer from food insecurity, according to the UN World Food Programme.

Syria's civil war has killed nearly half-a-million people and forced around half-of-the country's pre-war population from their homes.

Lebanon launches online portal for World Cup jobs

By - Oct 10,2022 - Last updated at Oct 10,2022

In this file photo taken on June 28, shows a view of the 'West Bay' complex, from the Centara Hotel, which will host fans during the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup, in Qatar's capital Doha (AFP photo)

BEIRUT — Lebanon on Monday launched an online platform to facilitate employment for its nationals in Qatar as the Gulf state prepares to stage the World Cup.

The move, just weeks before the World Cup kicks off on November 20, is aimed at helping to tackle spiralling unemployment in Lebanon as it suffers its worst ever financial crisis.

"The platform for employment in Qatar in 2022 is tied to the World Cup as well as other long-term jobs," Labour Minister Mustafa Bayram told a news conference.

He said it was part of his ministry's efforts to "tackle the problem of unemployment" in Lebanon. 

Bayram said the launch of the jobs platform came after talks with his Qatari counterpart on the sidelines of an Arab Labour Conference in Cairo last month.

He said Qatar was in a "rush" to employ a "large number of Lebanese".

"The World Cup is a priority for them... and it is important for us to help them in this," he said.

Lebanon's official unemployment rate jumped almost three-fold to reach 29.6 per cent at the start of the year, according to a joint survey by the government and the United Nations.

The new portal will allow Lebanese job seekers to register their skills, giving Qatar's private sector a pool of potential candidates to employ.

The government in Beirut will play no role in the hiring process, Bayram said, but it will facilitate passport renewals for selected candidates.

This pledge comes amid a shortage of travel documents that has forced the authorities to delay the issuance and renewal of official papers for months.

After years of corrupt practices and financial mismanagement, Lebanon's economy collapsed in 2019, stripping the national currency of 95 per cent of its value and sending poverty rates soaring.

Hey big spenders: Qatar woos the rich with luxury World Cup

By - Oct 09,2022 - Last updated at Oct 09,2022

In this file photo taken on June 28, a view of dining space at the Centara Hotel, which will host fans during the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup in the capital Doha (AFP photo)

DUBAI — With deluxe match packages selling for thousands of dollars and five-star hotels doing a brisk trade, a sheen of glamour coats Qatar's World Cup despite football's working-class roots.

A penchant for luxury in the energy-rich Gulf state, which has one of the world's highest GDPs per head, has rubbed off on an unusually high-end edition of a tournament for the masses.

If you're able to spring $4,950 for a VIP ticket to a group game, you can enjoy drinks, a six-course meal and entertainment at a lounge overlooking the halfway line at Lusail Stadium, north of Doha.

Those with bottomless budgets in the resource-rich region have attractive accommodation options too, with one third-party site offering $4,000-a-night hotel rooms and $26,000 for a "head of state" suite — with a 30-night minimum stay.

Things are a little different for ordinary fans.

Cheaper options include a steel bed in a shared room in the semi-desert near the capital at $84 a night, or accommodation on docked cruise ships from $179 to $800.

Stadium crowds will include Qatar's migrant labourers, who were offered some tickets at 40 riyals ($11) to watch a sport whose players and core supporters are traditionally blue-collar.

According to Ronan Evain, executive director of Football Supporters Europe, the onus on "premium" experiences has left some fans cold.

"It's clear that there's a focus on a type of premium tourism, but the vast majority that go to a World Cup are middle-class," Evain told AFP.

"They're not the sort of people who can afford to stay on a cruise liner at $5,000 a week."

'Solution is to cancel' 

 

The hordes of ticketless fans that usually descend on a World Cup will be reduced in number, as only ticket holders and up to three guests each can enter Qatar during the November 20 — December 18 tournament.

Many supporters will stay elsewhere in the Gulf and board the estimated 100-200 World Cup shuttle flights a day from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman.

Even those options do not come cheap.

In Dubai, an hour's flight away and expected to be a major destination, an official World Cup package costs $1,500 for four nights in a shared room, including one return flight to Doha but no match tickets.

The Qatar World Cup is at least compact, with all eight stadiums in and around Doha — eradicating the cross-country travel needed at previous editions such as Brazil 2014 or Russia 2018.

"The problem with the World Cup in Qatar is that there are very few alternatives," said Evain.

"At a World Cup in Brazil or Russia, you can take a train, hire a car, stay 200 kilometres away or come just for the day of the match.

"None of that is possible in Qatar. Either you can't find accommodation or accommodation is too expensive," he added.

"People are looking for a solution and for quite a few people the solution is to cancel, because they can't afford this sort of budget."

 

High-end experiences 

 

However, Sue Holt, executive director of Expat Sport, the UAE agent for the official World Cup package provider, said there was a range of accommodation "to suit most budgets".

The United States, Britain, France, Mexico, China and India were among the countries where fans were showing most interest in packages for the UAE, she said.

"Sports tourists generally tend to be older and travel in groups, which can be families, friends or sporting groups," she said.

"Part of the appeal of this type of travel is that it is a collective, shared experience watching your favourite team or player together."

These supporters "will include people who have never ventured to this region before", added Holt.

According to Robert Mogielnicki, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, hosting the World Cup is about "prestige" for Qatar, a monarchy of just 2.8 million people, overwhelmingly expatriate workers.

"What the Qataris don't want to happen is get stuck with an oversupply of tourism infrastructure for a segment of tourists unlikely to be a regular, consistent presence in the country," he said, explaining the limited options.

"I suspect that the Qataris will keep looking to attract wealthier tourists from elite circles," added Mogielnicki, who is also adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University and George Washington University.

"Lots of the momentum behind regional tourism projects, especially in Saudi Arabia, does seem to focus on high-end, luxury experiences these days."

Pink diamond sells for nearly $58 million in Hong Kong

Pink diamond sells for second-highest price paid at auction

By - Oct 08,2022 - Last updated at Oct 08,2022

This undated image received from Sotheby's auction house on Saturday shows the Williamson Pink Star diamond, which was sold at auction in Hong Kong for nearly $58 million on Friday, setting a record for price per carat for any diamond or gemstone, according to auction house Sotheby's (AFP photo)

HONG KONG — A rare pink diamond has sold in Hong Kong for nearly $58 million, setting a record for price per carat paid at auction for any diamond or gemstone, according to Sotheby's.

The 11.15 carat Williamson Pink Star on Friday fetched HK$453.2 million ($57.7 million), the second-highest price paid at auction for any jewel, Sotheby's added.

The winning bid, by an undisclosed buyer from Boca Raton, Florida, was more than twice the estimated $21 million sale price.

The stone was the second-largest pink diamond to be sold at auction. Pink diamonds are the rarest of the precious gems and the most in-demand on the global market.

The world record for a pink diamond was set in 2017, when a stone known as the CTF Pink Star was sold in Hong Kong for $71.2 million.

Friday's sale "not only attests to the resilient demand for top quality diamonds in Asia, but a heightened awareness of the great scarcity of pink diamonds", said Wenhao Yu, chairman of jewellery and watches at Sotheby's Asia.

The Williamson Pink Star was named after two other pink diamonds: The record-setting CTF Pink Star and the Williamson Stone, a 23.6-carat diamond given as a wedding present to Queen Elizabeth II in 1947.

Tobias Kormind, managing director of UK jewel retailer 77 Diamonds, said the "astounding" sale proved high-quality diamonds could still fetch major prices in a shaky economy.

"Hard assets such as world-class diamonds have a history of performing well even in times of instability," he said.

IMF chief urges action as global recession risks rise

By - Oct 06,2022 - Last updated at Oct 06,2022

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service on Thursday in Washington, DC (AFP photo)

WASHINGTON — International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva urged global policymakers on Thursday to take concerted action to avoid a "dangerous 'new normal'", as the risks of a worldwide recession are driven ever higher by repeated economic shocks.

In a speech ahead of the fund's annual meetings next week, the IMF's managing director said it was critical to "stabilise the global economy by addressing the most immediate challenges" — including rampant inflation.

Policymakers need to act together to "prevent this period of heightened fragility from becoming a dangerous 'new normal'", Georgieva said.

But she warned the process will be painful — and that if central banks move too aggressively to tamp down price pressures, it could trigger a "prolonged" economic downturn.

Finance ministers and central bank governors from more than 180 nations will gather next week in Washington for the first fully in-person meeting of the IMF and World bank since 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Faced with the "darkening global outlook... the risks of recession are rising", Georgieva said — announcing that the crisis lender plans to once again downgrade its 2023 forecast for the world economy, in the forecasts due to be published next week for the annual meeting.

One-third of countries are expected to see at least two quarters of contraction, and "even when growth is positive, it will feel like a recession" because of rising prices eroding incomes, she said.

The fund in July slashed its growth forecast for this year to 3.2 per cent, and for next year to 2.9 per cent — the third consecutive downgrade.

 

'Shock, after shock' 

 

The meetings come at a difficult time for the global economy, with the pandemic largely under control, but soaring inflation and rising interest rates now threatening to reverberate around the globe and choke off nascent recoveries.

"In less than three years we lived through shock, after shock, after shock," Georgieva said in her speech at Georgetown University.

Global supply snarls already were a challenge as demand surged following the pandemic slowdown, fueling inflation worldwide, and strains worsened in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine — which Georgieva called a "senseless war" — sending food and food prices soaring.

"Far from being transitory, inflation has become more persistent," and acting before high prices become entrenched is a key challenge for policymakers, Georgieva said — warning that "the cost of a policy misstep can be enormous".

"Not tightening enough would cause inflation to become deanchored and entrenched," but moving "too much and too fast — and doing so in a synchronised manner across countries — could push many economies into prolonged recession", she said.

Despite the risks, central banks need to continue "act decisively".

"This is not easy, and it will not be without pain in the near term," she cautioned. "But the key is to avoid much greater and longer-lasting pain for everyone later on."

 

Debt distress 

 

Georgieva stressed the need for fiscal policies to help the most vulnerable segments of society, but warned that efforts must be targeted "with a laser-sharp focus on lower-income households", to avoid acting against the current of monetary policy.

She cautioned against relying on price controls which are not affordable nor effective.

The pandemic forced many countries to take on more borrowing, and now many are already facing or at risk of debt distress amid rising interest rates. That "raises the risk of a widening debt crisis" which could further harm global growth.

To reduce the risk "large creditors such as China and private-sector creditors have a responsibility to act", she said, calling for "faster and more predictable" action on debt restructuring. 

OPEC+ agrees major oil output cut

By - Oct 05,2022 - Last updated at Oct 05,2022

VIENNA — The Organisation of the petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and its Russia-led allies agreed on a major cut in oil production on Wednesday.

The move has been taken to prop up prices.

It is also expected to bolster sanction-hit Moscow's coffers and irk Washington.

The 13-nation OPEC cartel and its 10 Russian-led allies agreed to reduce 2 million barrels per day from November at a meeting in Vienna, said Iran's OPEC Governor Amir Hossein Zamaninia.

It is the biggest cut since the height of the COVID pandemic in 2020.

Such a move could turbocharge crude prices, further aggravating inflation which has reached decades-high levels in many countries and is contributing to a global economic slowdown.

It could also give Russia a boost ahead of a European Union ban on most of its crude exports later this year and a bid by the Group of Seven wealthy democracies to cap the country's oil prices.

US President Joe Biden personally appealed to Saudi leaders in July to boost production in order to tame prices which soared following Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. 

But crude price have fallen in recent months on concerns over dwindling demand and fears over a possible global recession.

"With consumers only just breathing a sigh of relief after being forced to pay record prices at the pump, today's cut is not going to go down well," said Craig Erlam, an analyst at trading platform OANDA, ahead of the meeting. 

When asked how the United States would react to a cut, the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates, Suhail Al Mazrouei, insisted that OPEC was merely a "technical organisation".

Alexander Novak, the Russian deputy prime minister in charge of energy who is under US sanctions, remained mum as he arrived for the group's first in-person meeting at its Vienna headquarters since March 2020.

 

Geopolitical tensions 

 

Collectively known as OPEC+, the alliance drastically slashed output by almost 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2020 to reverse a massive drop in crude prices caused by COVID lockdowns.

OPEC+ began to raise production last year after the market improved. Output returned to pre-pandemic levels this year, but only on paper as some members have struggled to meet their quotas.

The group agreed last month on a small, symbolic cut of 100,000 bpd from October, the first in more than a year.

Consumer countries had pushed for months for OPEC+ to open taps more widely to bring down prices, but the group ignored them again.

"Knowing that Russia is willing to cut output, the move could also be perceived as another escalation of the geopolitical tensions" between Moscow and the West, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a Swissquote bank analyst.

 

US elections 

 

Biden made a trip to Saudi Arabia in July in part to convince the kingdom to loosen the production taps. 

The OPEC+ decision comes ahead of a midterm congressional elections in the United States next month, and a surge in prices for Americans at fuel stations would not help Biden's cause.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Tuesday that "we will continue to take steps to protect American consumers", declining to comment on the OPEC discussions directly.

While the cut will not be welcomed by the United States, several OPEC+ nations have struggled to meet their quotas in the first place.

Prices soared close to $140 per barrel in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February but fell as low as below $90 more recently.

After rallying earlier this week on speculation over the OPEC+ cut, the international benchmark, Brent North Sea crude, seesawed on Wednesday at around $92.

UK rail workers stage latest strike over pay

By - Oct 05,2022 - Last updated at Oct 05,2022

In this photo, an Avanti West Coast train is seen parked at Euston Station in London on Wednesday during a 24-hour- strike by railway staff (AFP photo)

LONDON — Train travel in Britain was disrupted on Wednesday by the latest in a string of strikes by railway workers over wages.

Picket lines appeared at stations including London's Kings Cross and Euston as workers from the Aslef and TSSA trade unions and thousands of drivers walked out.

The strike affected around a dozen rail companies.

Railway workers are demanding wage increases to keep pace with decades-high inflation amid a cost-of-living crisis. 

The sector has spearheaded a wave of industrial action in recent months.

Tens of thousands of staff in various industries — from the postal and legal systems to ports and telecommunications — have also gone on strike across Britain since the summer.

Mick Whelan, general secretary of Aslef, which represents train drivers, said it the first railway dispute he had been involved in where transport unions had "the approval of the public".

"That's because it is barristers, it is teachers, it is lecturers, it is everybody across all sectors all feeling the pinch at the same time and this can only be down to the government," he said on a picket line at Euston.

RMT Union General Secretary Mick Lynch added that negotiations with the rail companies were continuing but had not produced anything "tangible" so far.

He pledged more strike action over the next six months if a settlement between transport unions and rail companies was not reached.

Railway workers from four unions — RMT, Unite, Aslef and TSSA — all walked out last Saturday resulting in only 11 per cent of trains running nationwide.

Some parts of the country were left without any services.

The strikes come as workers face a huge hike in energy prices, rising interest rates and food costs. They have been the sector's biggest stoppages in decades with more expected this coming Saturday.

Prime Minister Liz Truss's government on Wednesday vowed to take on "militant unions", characterising them as part of an "anti-growth coalition" holding the country back.

Spain summer tourism arrivals still below pre-pandemic level

By - Oct 04,2022 - Last updated at Oct 04,2022

In this file photo taken on June 7, sunbathers walk by the sea on Levante Beach in Benidorm, on the Mediterranean coast of Spain (AFP photo)

MADRID — The number of foreign tourists visiting Spain rose sharply this summer as COVID-19 travel restrictions were lifted but arrivals remained below the level seen before the pandemic, official figures showed on Tuesday.

Spain, the world's second most visited country before the pandemic, welcomed 9.1 million foreigners in July, and 8.8 million in August, national statistics institute INE said.

That represents a 106.2 per cent increase in arrivals in July from the same month last year, and a 69.7 per cent jump in August from the same year-ago period, it added.

But the total number of arrivals during the two months — 17.9 million — remained lower than the record 20 million seen in 2019 before the pandemic-related travel restrictions ravaged the global tourism industry.

Tourism Minister Maria Reyes Maroto called the arrival figures for the two peak holiday months "extraordinary".

"We are facing an autumn without inflation and the uncertainty caused by the war" in Ukraine hurting the sector's recovery "for now", she added in a statement.

During the first eight months of the year Spain welcomed 48 million foreign tourists, equivalent to 83 per cent of its pre-pandemic level.

The largest numbers of visitors during the period were British, accounting for more than 10 million arrivals, followed by French, who made up seven million visits, and Germans, who accounted for 2.3 million.

In the same period, the most popular destinations were the northeastern region of Catalonia, the Balearic Isles, the Canary Islands and Andalusia in the south, the INE said.

Spain in 2019 hit a record for the seventh year in a row, welcoming a total of 83.5 million foreign tourists. Only France received more that year. 

The number of foreign visitors plunged to 19 million the following year due to the pandemic.

Last year, only 31.1 million foreigners visited Spain, well below the 45 million expected by the government.

Tourism accounts for some 12 per cent of Spain's gross domestic output and the drop in arrivals hit the economy, the eurozone's fourth largest, hard.

OPEC+ tipped to make big cut in oil output

By - Oct 03,2022 - Last updated at Oct 03,2022

LONDON — Major oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to make this week their biggest output cut since the start of the COVID pandemic in efforts to buttress prices.

Energy prices soared after Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year, pushing inflation to decades-high levels that have put pressure on economies across the world.

But crude prices have fallen in recent months on concerns over demand amid a slowdown in the global economy.

The 13 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Riyadh, and their 10 allies headed by Moscow will hold on Wednesday their first in-person meeting at the group's headquarters in Vienna since March 2020.

Collectively known as OPEC+, the alliance drastically slashed output by almost 10 million barrels per day in April 2020 to reverse a massive drop in crude prices caused by COVID lockdowns.

OPEC+ began to raise production last year after the market improved — output returned to pre-pandemic levels this year, but only on paper as some members struggled to meet their quotas.

The group agreed last month on a slight cut of 100,000bpd from October, the first in more than a year.

 

One million cut 

 

Analysts now expect OPEC+ to decide to take 1 million bpd out of the market from November at Wednesday's meeting.

"There's been plenty of rumours about how the alliance will respond to the deteriorating economic outlook and lower prices," said Craig Erlam, analyst at trading platform OANDA.

"A sizeable cut now looks on the cards, the question is whether it will be large enough to offset the demand destruction caused by the impending economic downturn," he added.

After soaring close to $140 per barrel in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, oil prices have dropped below the $90 mark.

According to the UBS bank, a cut of at least 500,000bpd would be necessary to stop the price plunge.

In anticipation of Wednesday's meeting, oil prices jumped more than 4 per cent on Monday, with Brent North Sea crude, the international benchmark, reaching $88.55 — still far from its March peak.

 

Ignoring the West 

 

Stephen Brennock, an analyst with PVM Energy, said OPEC+ would "want to reassert its influence" when the group meets this week.

"After all, the producer group has lost control over the oil market in recent weeks," he said.

It remains to be seen how the United States and other major oil consumers will react to any OPEC+ decision to slash output.

Consumer countries have pushed for OPEC+ to open taps more widely to bring down prices — calls which the group has largely ignored.

US President Joe Biden made a trip to Saudi Arabia in July in part to convince the kingdom to loosen the production taps.

"OPEC will not be making any friends among Western leaders, especially petroleum importers whose economies and currencies are ravaged by higher oil prices due to a deterioration in the trade balance," said Stephen Innes, an analyst with SPI Asset Management, ahead of Wednesday's meeting.

Observers have cast doubt how much more OPEC+ could possibly be pumping with some of its members struggling to meet quotas.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB research group, predicted it would be "very easy for the group to implement cuts given that most members are stretched to the limit of what they can produce".

He said Saudi Arabia was currently producing 11 million barrels per day.

"It hasn't maintained such a high production more than twice in history and then only for 1-2 months," he said.

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