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S.Arabia-Russia discord clouds OPEC+ talks

Oil prices dropped by 10% since April cuts, Brent crude falling to $70 barrel

By - Jun 03,2023 - Last updated at Jun 03,2023

VIENNA — Signs of discord between top crude oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are set to overshadow an OPEC+ output policy meeting on Sunday that will test their alliance.

The in-person ministerial meeting of the 13 OPEC members led by Riyadh and their 10 allies headed by Moscow will be the second at the OPEC headquarters in the Austrian capital since March 2020.

Adding to the apparent tensions, OPEC did not invite journalists from three major financial news outlets — Bloomberg, Reuters and The Wall Street Journal — to cover the talks, according to Bloomberg.

An OPEC spokesman declined to comment.

Oil producers are grappling with falling prices and high market volatility amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has upended economies worldwide.

In April, countries were caught off guard when several OPEC+ members agreed to voluntarily cut production by more than one million barrels per day (bpd), which briefly buttressed prices but failed to bring about lasting recovery.

Analysts are now divided over whether Saudi Arabia and Russia will keep the group on course with its current output policy, or further curtail production in a bid to prop up prices.

"The recent inconsistent rhetoric from the two heavyweights certainly threw the spanner in the works and it is hard to predict the outcome," said Tamas Varga of PVM Energy. 

 

'End of bromance' 

 

Oil prices have plummeted by about 10 per cent since the April cuts were announced, with Brent crude falling close to $70 a barrel, a level it has not traded below since December 2021.

Traders worry that demand will slump, with concerns about the health of the global economy as the United States battles inflation with higher interest rates and China's post-COVID rebound stutters.

Last week, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman fuelled speculation of new cuts by warning traders against betting on falling oil prices.

"I keep advising them that they will be ouching — they did ouch in April. I would just tell them: watch out," he said.

However, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak appeared to disagree with that assessment, ruling out additional production adjustments in an interview with Russian newspaper Izvestia.

"I don't think that there will be any new steps, because just a month ago certain decisions... were made by some countries due to the fact that we saw a slow pace of global economic recovery," Novak said.

Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management, said "mixed messages are the first signs of discord within the group".

In addition to the contradictory signals, Moscow has fallen short on its pledge in February to cut output by 500,000 bpd.

With its war in Ukraine dragging on and Western sanctions hitting its economy, Russia has been shipping its oil to India and China as the Asian giants soak up the cheap crude.

Sunday's meeting might not be as quick as previous ones, said Edward Moya, analyst at trading platform OANDA.

"The Saudis will probably argue for more production cuts, while Russia is getting desperate for oil revenue," he told AFP.

"The bromance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is probably over," Moya said.

 

Past tensions

 

It is not the first spat between the oil giants.

The alliance was pushed to the brink of collapse in March 2020 when Moscow refused to cut its oil production even as the COVID pandemic sent prices into freefall.

After negotiations broke down, Riyadh flooded the market by boosting its oil exports to record levels, pushing crude prices below $50 per barrel.

The plunge, which would take eight months to recover, eventually forced both Russia and Saudi Arabia to reach an agreement to stabilise prices.

This time around, "any Russian veto could materially reduce OPEC's power of hit on oil prices," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a research note.

However, she added, there is "little chance that we see the kind of discord like back in 2020" as the war in Ukraine has strengthened their ties.

Ajay Banga starts work as new World Bank president

WB’s role in ‘quickly’ mobilising resources to respond to COVID-19, war in Ukraine

By - Jun 03,2023 - Last updated at Jun 03,2023

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with World Bank President Ajay Banga at the US Treasury in Washington, DC, Thursday (AFP photo)

WASHINGTON — Ajay Banga began his first day at the helm of the World Bank Group on Friday, taking charge of the development lender as it grapples with questions about its future direction.

"We are at a critical moment in the arc of humanity and the planet," Banga wrote Friday morning in an email to staff obtained by AFP, calling on the bank to "evolve" to meet the challenges it now faces.

An Indian-born, naturalized US citizen, Banga was nominated to the position by US President Joe Biden after a successful business career which included a long stretch running the payments company Mastercard.

Banga, 63, has taken over from David Malpass as the bank's 14th president on a pledge to expand the role of the private sector in addressing the world's development needs.

"The scale and diversity of our challenges — poverty and development, pandemics, climate change, conflict, and fragility — are deeply intertwined and threaten our collective ambitions, as decades worth of hard-won progress erode," Banga said in his email. 

"The World Bank's challenge is clear: It must pursue both climate adaptation and mitigation, it must reach out to lower income countries without turning its back on middle income countries, it must think globally but recognise national and regional needs, it must embrace risk but do so prudently," he added. 

"Change is appropriate for the World Bank," he said. "It isn't a symptom of failure or drift or irrelevance, it is a symptom of opportunity, life, and importance." 

Banga took over the top job at the World Bank from Malpass, who stepped down early from his five-year term amid questions about his stance on climate change.

Under an increasingly contentious unwritten arrangement, a US citizen has historically held the presidency of the Washington-based development lender, while the International Monetary Fund has been run by a European.

In his final message as World Bank president on Thursday, Malpass touted the World Bank's role in "quickly" mobilizing resources to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine, and highlighted the doubling of climate financing for developing countries under his watch.

"One of my key priorities while at the Bank has been to foster more debt transparency and sustainability — both essential to bolster investment and growth in developing economies," he wrote in the statement posted on LinkedIn.

 

Amazon settles Ring customer spying complaint

By - Jun 01,2023 - Last updated at Jun 01,2023

SAN FRANCISCO — Amazon on Wednesday agreed to pay $30.8 million to settle Ring and Alexa privacy complaints filed by US regulators, including accusations that employees spied on female customers, according to court documents.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) charged Amazon-owned home security camera company Ring with failing to implement basic protections to stop hackers or employees from accessing people's devices or accounts.

According to the FTC complaint, Ring's failures in security resulted in "egregious" violations of privacy such as female users of home security cameras being "surveilled" in bedrooms or bathrooms.

"Ring's disregard for privacy and security exposed consumers to spying and harassment," FTC bureau of consumer protection director Samuel Levine said in a statement.

Under a proposed order, which requires approval by a federal judge, Ring will delete any data unlawfully viewed and ramp up security with features such as multifactor authentication.

Hackers exploited vulnerabilities to not only access video streams but also to take control of cameras to taunt children, sexually proposition people, and threaten a family with harm if they didn't pay a ransom, according to the FTC.

Ring will pay $5.8 million as part of the settlement, the proposed order indicated.

"Ring promptly addressed these issues on its own years ago, well before the FTC began its inquiry," Ring said in response to an AFP inquiry, adding that it disagrees with the allegations.

Amazon will pay an additional $25 million as part of a separate deal to settle FTC accusations that children's voice recordings captured by Alexa smart speakers were kept when they should have been deleted, according to the regulator.

US law "does not allow companies to keep children's data forever for any reason, and certainly not to train their algorithms", Levine said.

Amazon will identify and delete any personal information it has kept from child profiles that are no longer active, a proposed order stated.

Eurozone inflation dips but ECB to remain hawkish

Inflation drops from 7% for April that reversed five months of declines

By - Jun 01,2023 - Last updated at Jun 01,2023

BRUSSELS — Sliding energy prices helped lower eurozone inflation more than expected in May but underlying pressures suggest the European Central Bank (ECB) will still be inclined to raise interest rates, officials and analysts said on Thursday.

Headline inflation for the 20 EU countries using the euro dipped to 6.1 per cent in May, according to Eurostat data.

That was a drop from the 7 per cent figure for April that had reversed five months of declines, and below analysts' consensus forecast of 6.3 per cent.

But inflation remains well above the 2 per cent target set by the European Central Bank, which indicated another round of monetary tightening in two weeks' time.

"Inflation is too high and it is set to remain so for too long," ECB chief Christine Lagarde told a banking congress in Germany.

She suggested that a smaller rate increase was to come, following ECB hikes since July that have pushed up the official borrowing rate an unprecedented 3.75 percentage points.

"We are approaching our cruising altitude," Lagarde said.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, is the key signal for the ECB.

In May, that figure came in at 5.3 per cent, lower than the 5.6 per cent recorded in April. 

"The persistent nature of core inflation means that the ECB is expected to extend their unprecedented tightening cycle with another 0.25 basis points rise in two weeks, despite signs of slower growth and the potential for increased pressure on the financial system," said Richard Flax of the investment advisory firm Moneyfarm. 

Eurostat said energy inflation in the eurozone dipped into negative territory in May, falling by 1.7 per cent.

That reflected a glut on the natural gas market as Europe, now less dependent on Russian fossil fuels since supply cuts over the war in Ukraine, heads into summer.

Inflation in services also slowed slightly, to 5 per cent, but higher prices for food and alcohol, while slowing a bit, were the main prop for headline inflation and a problem for European household budgets.

That component rose 12.5 per cent in May, compared with 13.5 per cent in April. It was also largely responsible for the surprise 7 per cent reading in April that reversed five months of declines.

Back in October, the eurozone was struggling with overall inflation of 10.6 per cent as it confronted the fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine and supply bottlenecks related to the post-COVID recovery.

While inflation has since eased, slowing economic growth and higher loan costs were starting to be bite.

Germany, the European Union's economic powerhouse that is now in recession, saw its inflation rate drop to 6.3 per cent in May from 7.6 per cent in April.

France, the bloc's second-biggest economy, saw inflation dip to 6 per cent in May from 6.9 per cent the previous month

"I'm aware of the risks that weigh on our growth and the French economy," French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Wednesday, in response to signs of tepid growth and cutbacks by consumers. 

The ECB rate increases have flowed through into mortgages, making home loans more expensive and harder to secure for would-be buyers in Europe, weakening some real estate markets.

The ECB said in a report this week that demand for mortgages fell sharply in the first quarter of 2023, leading to a "correction" that risked becoming "disorderly" if recession fears widened.

"The tightening monetary policy is testing the resilience of households and businesses" in the eurozone, Moneyfarm's Flax said.

"Looking ahead, both headline and core inflation will keep falling," said Jack Allen-Reynolds, a eurozone economist for analysis firm Capital Economics.

"But the labour market still looks very tight... As a result, we suspect that the core inflation rate will come down only slowly and it will be a long time before it hits 2 per cent."

Like other analysts, he predicted the ECB would raise interest rates by 25 basis points on June 15 "and probably once more at the July meeting".

Mining giant BHP faces $280m cost for underpaying staff

BHP is leading producer of metallurgical coal, iron ore, nickel, copper, potash

By - Jun 01,2023 - Last updated at Jun 01,2023

Codelco workers walk on the company's premises before the closing ceremony of the Ventanas division smelting plant in Puchuncavi, Chile, on Wednesday (AFP photo)

SYDNEY — Global mining giant BHP said Thursday it had been underpaying thousands of Australian staff for more than a decade, an error that will cost at least $280 million to fix.

The company said 28,500 current and former employees were stripped of paid leave they were entitled to. 

BHP Australia president Geraldine Slattery said the error would be rectified "as quickly as possible" and "with interest".

The company did not explain how the error occurred.

"We are sorry to all current and former employees impacted by these errors. This is not good enough and falls short of the standards we expect at BHP," Slattery said.

BHP expects to have a fuller estimate of the cost of the error when it reports earnings in August, but it put the initial price tag at "$280 million pre-tax".

The company's share price fell almost one percent on the news.

BHP is one of the world's largest companies, and a leading producer of metallurgical coal, iron ore, nickel, copper and potash.

Australia has some of the world's strongest labour protections and it is not uncommon for companies to discover problems with past payrolls and be forced to rectify the situation.

Musk talks 'new energy vehicles' with industry minister during China visit

‘The interests of the United States and China are intertwined, like conjoined twins, who are inseparable from each other’

By - May 31,2023 - Last updated at May 31,2023

This photos shows the private jet of Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk before departing from Beijing Capital International Airport, on Wednesday (AFP photo)

BEIJING — Elon Musk and China's industry minister discussed ways to develop new energy vehicles Wednesday, a day after the Tesla CEO flew into Beijing and declared he wanted to expand his business in the world's second largest economy.

The mercurial billionaire, one of the world's richest men, is on his first trip to China in more than three years.

On Wednesday he met Jin Zhuanglong in Beijing to discuss "the development of new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles", the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a readout.

It did not share further details. Tesla representatives did not respond to AFP requests for further information on Musk's itinerary.

Musk has extensive business interests in China and on Tuesday told foreign minister Qin Gang that his firm was "willing to continue to expand its business in China", according to a foreign ministry readout.

Chinese media reported Tesla welcomed its CEO to Beijing on Tuesday with a 16-course dinner that included seafood, New Zealand lamb and traditional Beijing-style soybean paste noodles. 

China is the world's biggest electric vehicle market and Tesla announced in April it would build a second massive factory in Shanghai, which would be its second plant in the city after Gigafactory, which broke ground in 2019.

In his meeting with Qin on Tuesday, Musk also expressed his opposition to an economic "de-coupling" between China and the United States, Beijing said.

"The interests of the United States and China are intertwined, like conjoined twins, who are inseparable from each other," Musk added.

Musk's extensive business ties to China have raised eyebrows in Washington, with President Joe Biden saying in November that the executive's links to foreign countries were "worthy" of scrutiny.

And he has caused controversy by suggesting the self-ruled island of Taiwan should become part of China — a stance welcomed by Chinese officials but which deeply angered Taiwan.

Critics point to the industrial ties linking Musk to China, which has increasingly fraught ties with Washington.

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Tuesday that the country welcomed visits by international executives "to better understand China and promote mutually beneficial cooperation".

 

'Day of reckoning' — Turkish economy's post-election peril

By - May 30,2023 - Last updated at May 30,2023

This photo taken on Tuesday shows customers in a cryptocurrency exchange office in Hong Kong (AFP photo)

ISTANBUL — Turkey's economy is in a double bind: analysts see its current policies leading to imminent peril and the prescriptions incurring massive pain.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan campaigned round the clock to win the toughest election of his two decades in power in a historic runoff last weekend.

He also poured billions of dollars into campaign pledges — and tens of billions more into keeping the lira from suffering politically sensitive falls before the vote.

Analysts at Capital Economics think Turkey now faces its post-election "day of reckoning".

Turkey's once-vibrant economy — driven by relatively cheap labour and a well-oiled banking system — is confronting a self-inflicted problem few other countries have faced.

Erdogan has waged a lifelong war on high interest rates that he occasionally attributes to his faith in Muslim rules against usury.

He calls high rates "the mother and father of all evil" promoted by a foreign "interest lobby".

Erdogan sped through a series of central bankers before finding one willing to follow through on his desire to slash rates at all costs in 2021.

The results were dire.

 

Freefall 

 

The lira entered a freefall and the official annual inflation rate soon touched 85 per cent. The unofficial one estimated by economists — and believed by most Turks — neared 200 per cent.

Analysts see the most recent period of chaos as the culmination of Erdogan's gradual departure from the prosperous policies of his first decade of rule.

Foreign investors have largely abandoned Turkey because of its political instability and Erdogan's takeover of state institutions that were once run by impartial technocrats.

"The balance sheet so far of Erdogan's two decades in power has been the progressive destabilisation of the economy," Conotoxia investment firm market analyst Bartosz Sawicki said.

"Foreign equity exposure to Turkish bonds is estimated to have declined by around 85 per cent since 2013, during which time the lira has lost around 90 per cent against the dollar."

Turkey's most immediate problem is that its central bank is running out of cash.

It burned through nearly $30 billion supporting the lira this year alone.

The bank's net international reserves — a technical measure of how much it has to spend on emergencies — have dropped into negative territory for the first time since 2002.

"The current setup is just not sustainable," London-based emerging markets economist Timothy Ash said.

 

Export competitiveness

 

Analysts have two simple solutions: Quickly hike interest rates and let the lira float freely again.

Turkey's currency support measures have wiped out the benefits low interest rates gave its loan-dependent producers.

The cars and jewellery Turkey exports in places such as the United States and Europe now simply cost too much.

Analysts at Allianz said the lira has "appreciated by around 35 per cent in real effective terms since the unorthodox monetary policy stance took full effect in December 2021".

The lira was hovering near a record 20.3 to the dollar on Tuesday. Analysts at JPMorgan think it could reach the 30 mark if the government stopped intervening.

This would further erode people's purchasing power and potentially require the government to find billions of dollars to spend on new social support measures.

The vicious cycle could be broken by a sharp interest rate hike — something Erdogan has repeatedly ruled out during the campaign.

Atilla Yesilada, analyst at Turkish consultancy GlobalSource Partners, worries that they country may simply start printing money to pay for the huge hikes in benefits and wages Erdogan promised during the campaign.

 

'Soft capital controls' 

 

Turkey must also find vast sums — estimated at roughly $100 billion — to pay for the reconstruction of cities destroyed by a February earthquake that claimed more than 50,000 lives.

"How any government would finance the reconstruction effort without printing money and leading to hyperinflation is a question that people prefer not to address at this point," Yesilada said.

Analysts agree that Turkey would eventually have no choice but to raise rates.

Emre Peker, Europe director at the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy, said Turkey would first try to contain demand for dollars through "soft capital controls on locals".

But Erdogan could relent and raise rates once March 2024 municipal elections involving Turkey's biggest cities are out of the way.

Allianz said they should go up from the current 8.5 per cent to at least 20-25 per cent — the current rate of bank deposits.

But that would create still more problems.

"Raising rates will reduce bank capital," Yesilada warned. "Banks will not be able to lend for a long time."

Nvidia chief says tech at 'tipping point' as unveils AI products

US firm sees its value surge to $1 trillion, after quarterly-earnings- report blows expectations

By - May 29,2023 - Last updated at May 29,2023

This handout photo taken and released by Nvidia shows Nvidia founder and chief Jensen Huang speaking during the Computex 2023 in Taipei on Monday (AFP photo)

TAIPEI — Nvidia chief Jensen Huang said the world was at "the tipping point of a new computer era" as he unveiled a raft of AI-related products Monday in his first public speech in four years at a Taiwan tech trade show.

The US firm, which specialises in chips coveted in the artificial intelligence boom, saw its value surge to nearly $1 trillion last week, after the company's quarterly earnings report blew past expectations.

Nvidia is known for creating graphics chips long coveted by gamers but which have become engines for the kind of complex processes involved in artificial intelligence, known as accelerated computing.

Its chips are a central ingredient to the generative AI revolution, capable of delivering the computing heft needed to churn out complex content in just seconds from data centres around the world.

In Taipei on Monday, the Taiwanese-American CEO expressed excitement to be back at the Computex forum, one of the largest trade shows for the sector.

"Our first live event in almost four years! I haven't given a public speech in four years — wish me luck!" he said.

Huang's two-hour presentation introduced a dizzying host of new products — including an AI supercomputer platform called DGX GH200, which he said is now "in full production".

"We're so excited that Google Cloud, Meta and Microsoft will be the first companies in the world to have access," he added.

"They will be doing be doing exploratory research on the pioneering front, the boundaries of artificial intelligence, with us."

The new supercomputer will — in theory — help the tech industry as it seeks to create more AI-related products, which require more complex computing tasks.

"This is really one of the first major times in history a new computing model has been developed and created," he said, referring to accelerated computing.

"We have now reached the tipping point of a new computing era."

Founded 30 years ago by Huang, Nvidia was initially a star in the video game world. The Silicon Valley-based company has since built its reputation on making graphics processing units, which ramp up image quality and vanquish response lag time for gamers.

Its shares soared more than 25 percent Wednesday after an earnings report showed the AI trend is fuelling demand for its sophisticated chips.

 

Philip Morris boss campaigns to sell more heated tobacco

By - May 28,2023 - Last updated at May 28,2023

PMI chief executive Jacek Olczak speaks to AFP in central London, on May 23 (AFP photo)

LONDON — US tobacco giant Philip Morris International (PMI) is fighting to get Britain, France and other countries to make it easier to promote alternatives to cigarettes such as heated tobacco and vaping.

PMI embarked on a strategic shift six years ago to become a smoke-free company, against a backdrop of increasingly stringent regulations in many countries, costly lawsuits and falling smoking rates. 

The group has injected more than $10 billion into new products, which now account for a third of its $32 billion sales for the financial year 2022. 

It has a very limited presence in the vaping e-cigarette market.

But in the UK, the promotion of conventional or heated tobacco is forbidden, while gleaming e-cigarette stores are popping up all over the place. 

In countries where "alternatives" are not allowed, such as Turkey, Belgium or Singapore, PMI has no plans to move away from conventional cigarettes.

Stopping the sale of traditional cigarettes will "make Philip Morris look better" but not affect the one billion smokers who can "continue buying a product from somebody else", chief executive Jacek Olczak told AFP. 

Instead, he wants to "convince the governments... [to] allow the alternatives and we can start reducing the sale of cigarettes much faster".

In countries open to alternatives, he sees this deadline within 10 years. 

"Our vision is of a smoke-free future," he added.

 

Risks 

 

Heated tobacco products, or HTPs, use a high heat to decompose tobacco, via a process called pyrolysis, which does not set it on fire or burn it, therefore avoiding creating smoke.

PMI acknowledges that alternatives to conventional tobacco remain addictive because they contain nicotine and are not "risk-free".

Health organisations are split about their level of harmfulness.

"In recent years, HTPs have been promoted as reduced harm products or products that can help people quit conventional tobacco smoking," the World Health Organisation (WHO) states.

"HTPs expose users to toxic emissions, many of which cause cancer and currently there is not enough evidence to suggest that they are less harmful than conventional cigarettes."

The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention also stresses that tobacco, including heated tobacco, is "harmful" and "highly addictive".

It notes that: "Additional research is needed to determine whether adult cigarette smokers who completely switch to heated tobacco products might reduce their risks of tobacco-related disease." 

Tobacco kills eight million people a year worldwide.

However, the WHO, the UK's National Health Service and even anti-smoking groups agree with Olczak that alternatives to conventional tobacco can help some people to quit. 

"People smoke for the nicotine, they die from the tar," said Deborah Arnott, head of British NGO Action on Smoking and Health. 

"We support nicotine containing e-cigarettes as they help adult smokers quit, as does licensed medicinal nicotine replacement therapy which is recognised by the WHO as an essential medicine."

However, Arnott takes issue with PMI being allowed to promote heavily its new products, "when they are a tobacco product". 

She argued that PMI's sole objective is "to protect its future earnings streams". 

 

Habits 

 

For Olczak, the many restrictive policies — age verification, hidden packets at retailers, unmarked packs with health warnings — have had only a "minimal" impact.

He instead attributes the fall in smoking in Sweden and Japan to the marketing of so-called alternatives. 

Smoking in Japan has fallen from 84 per cent of men in the 1960s to around 30 per cent in 2018, with Japan Tobacco International attributing the decline to a growing public awareness of health issues, tougher regulations, price rises and an ageing population. 

Arnott notes that PMI's heated tobacco "has been most successful in Japan, where it can be actively promoted and electronic cigarettes are banned". 

In Sweden, the public health agency notes that the use of alternatives such as snus (a form of snuff popular in Nordic countries) or e-cigarettes increases the risk of switching to conventional cigarettes among new users — a particular concern for younger people.

On its website, the agency says it does not have enough data to say that the use of alternative products leads to a change in tobacco consumption. 

Iraq warned to end oil addiction to avoid 'intensive care'

By - May 28,2023 - Last updated at May 28,2023

BAGHDAD — Oil-dependent Iraq has been warned its economy risks going into "intensive care" unless it diversifies in line with worldwide efforts to tackle the impact of fossil fuels on the climate.

The country's vast oil reserves are enough to produce crude at current rates for another century, but as the world works to wean itself off hydrocarbons, Baghdad has been slow to adapt.

For years the energy industry has faced calls to help meet the goal of keeping global temperatures to 1.5ºC s above pre-industrial levels by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

In April, the G-7 countries — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — pledged to "accelerate" their "exit" from fossil fuels, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 "at the latest".

But sales of the commodity make up 90 per cent of Iraq's budget revenue as it recovers from years of devastating conflicts and political upheaval, leaving it overly reliant on the sector.

"Currently, the whole economy depends on oil and the price of oil," political scientist Ammar Al Azzawi said.

"If oil plunges, our economy will go to intensive care."

His suggested remedy is to develop Iraq's industrial, agriculture and tourism sectors before the world shifts to alternative energy sources.

In March, the European Union said that by 2035 it would stop selling combustion engines in new cars, which will no longer be able to emit any CO2.

A global "energy transition is taking place, but not yet at the speed and scale that scientists and experts tell us is necessary to avert the worst impacts of climate change", said Ali Al Saffar, climate director at the New York-based Rockefeller Foundation.

'Seize the moment' 

 

Suffering from prolonged droughts punctuated by frequent sandstorms, Iraq's 42 million people are already witnessing those consequences.

The largely arid country is considered by the United Nations as one of the five most affected in the world by certain impacts of climate change.

In 2020, during the coronavirus pandemic, Iraq saw the downside of its oil dependence when global demand for crude plunged.

"Iraq's export revenues fell precipitously and poverty rates doubled in the country almost overnight," said Saffar.

Ravaged by decades of conflict and home to crumbling infrastructure, Iraq needs oil income to fund reconstruction.

Sixty per cent of public investment in 2021 was oil-related, compared with less than 17 per cent in 2010, the World Bank said in a March report.

However, "the ease with which oil income is generated and can be redistributed to maintain networks of [political] power weakens" any push for reforms, the global lender said.

It urged Iraq to "seize the current moment of high oil prices" to begin its transition from oil dependence or risk facing more expensive and difficult reforms in future.

Baghdad will "diversify the economy" in the next 10 years, said Muzhar Saleh, economic adviser to Iraq's prime minister.

The government is focused on agriculture and major projects funded through public-private partnerships along with associated industries such as fertiliser production, he said.

With the introduction of modern irrigation technologies, Saleh hopes Iraq will increase its use of arable land from less than one million hectares currently to 1.5 million.

"In 50 years, we will not be as dependent on oil as we are today," he said.

 

'Green growth' 

 

To initiate reforms needed to achieve "green growth", the World Bank estimates Iraq must spend $233 billion, spread out until 2040.

The bank said these investments include funding to increase the private sector's economic role and reform of the nation's failed electricity sector.

There are also several projects under way to reduce gas flaring, a polluting practice of crude extraction where natural gas escapes.

Iraq aims to have renewable energies cover a third of its electricity needs by 2030 and has signed several contracts for solar plants, including with TotalEnergies of France.

But while the EU is aiming to install electric vehicle charging stations on major highways by 2026 and hydrogen refuelling stations by 2031, one Baghdad car salesman said Iraq is barely aware of the current hybrid vehicle technology he sells.

"The next step is electric cars... within two or three years," said Hassanein Makkie at his dealership.

But in a country where the electricity sector is far from reliable, the idea presents challenges.

"It takes a certain infrastructure to produce electricity in large quantities. We are not ready," Makkie said.

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