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LONDON — The risk of international conflict is now the biggest threat facing countries and businesses in the coming decade, trumping concerns about the economy, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said on Thursday.

The group's annual assessment of global hazards sets the scene for its meeting in Davos next week, although it is based on responses received some months ago. It is the first time the survey has headlined conflict as the top risk, reflecting an increasingly dangerous world.

The previous nine editions of the Global Risks report have tended to highlight economic threats such as fiscal crises, the collapse of asset prices and widening income disparity.

This time, economics have taken a relative backseat as nearly 900 experts in the survey fretted over the pro-Russian separatist uprising in Ukraine, the dramatic rise of the Islamic State group and other geopolitical flashpoints.

"It's very striking how geopolitical risks have shot up much more strongly than other risks," said Margareta Drzeniek-Hanouz, the World Economic Forum's (WEF) lead economist.

In addition to fears over major clashes between states, the means to wage conflict are changing, with the arrival of cross-border cyberattacks, drone strikes and the increased use of economic sanctions.

Since the survey was conducted, the economic picture has clouded significantly, with oil tumbling below $50 a barrel, the eurozone lurching into deflation and copper prices crashing this week as the World Bank cut its global growth forecast.

"We're still not out of the woods yet in terms of the economic recovery," said Drzeniek-Hanouz.

Economic concerns among experts did not diminish year-on-year but were simply overtaken by geopolitical issues, she added.

Other major risks in terms of their likelihood of occurring include extreme weather events, the failure of states and governments, and continuing high structural unemployment, the report found.

The WEF's key opinion formers also rank risks in terms of the scale of their impact, rather than likelihood, and on this basis water crises and the rapid spread of infectious diseases come out as top dangers.

In all, the 80-page report analysed 28 global risks for the next 10 years. It comes ahead of the WEF's annual meeting in the Swiss ski resort of Davos from January 21 to 24, where the rich and powerful will ponder the planet's future.

Bringing together business leaders, politicians and central bankers, Davos has come to symbolise a modern globalised world dominated by successful multinational corporations.

That has made it a target for anti-globalisation campaigners, although the WEF argues it includes a wide range of voices from labour groups to religious leaders.

Separately, a Reuters polls showed on Thursday that Global economic growth will be modest at best this year as weak inflation persists, while a faltering eurozone and China could restrain it further.

The last few months have been marked by rapidly-cooling inflation, driven by a spectacular 60 per cent fall in oil prices since June, with consumer price rises in many cases far below stability targets set by central banks.

Indeed, eurozone inflation in December turned to overall price falls for the first time since 2009 and economists now see a 90 per cent probability the European Central Bank (ECB) will print money through government bond purchases, possibly as early as next week.

That prospect drove the Swiss National Bank on Thursday to abandon its more than three-year-old cap on the franc.

But even if the ECB does engage in sovereign debt purchases, it is not clear if it would make much difference given that euro bond yields are already so low and the currency weaker.

Economists polled over the past week by Reuters say the biggest risk to the global economy this year will be weaker growth than previously forecast in the eurozone and China, followed closely by disinflation in major economies.

"The global economy started the year by exposing some of the same uncertainties left by the year that just ended," said Diane Schumaker-Krieg, global head of research at Wells Fargo.

"The rest of the global economy is not doing much better than the eurozone, with Chinese economic growth expected to slow down further over the next several years," she added.

Overall, the poll showed the world economy will grow 3.5 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent in 2016, unchanged from October's forecasts.

The World Bank on Tuesday lowered its global growth forecast to just 3 per cent for 2015 and to 3.3 per cent for next year on a bleak outlook for the eurozone and Japan, which continue to face deflation fears.

It also warned world economic growth was "running on a single engine". The US economy, the world's largest, is forecast to have shifted into higher gear and economists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates by June.

The Bank of England (BoE) also is expected to raise interest rates from a record low but economists were divided whether it would do so in the third or fourth quarter. Just three months ago the consensus was for a hike in the current quarter.

But low inflation in those countries has become a worry. Indeed, depressed inflation along with muted wage growth has pushed the market's implied tightening by the Fed and the BoE to much later than what economists are penciling in.

Will oil price bust boost?

A majority of economists in the poll said the steep fall in oil prices would be positive for global consumption. But not all of them were convinced.

"The collapse in the price of oil since the middle of last year is a consequence, primarily, of weaker demand rather than stronger supply as evidence of China's rapid slowdown continues to mount," said Oliver Jones, economist at Fathom Consulting.

"That is why it is unlikely to deliver the shot in the arm that many are hoping for," he added.

With the disinflationary trend gaining ground, the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets with a 25 basis point cut in interest rates on Thursday, ahead of a scheduled meeting next month.

Elsewhere, emerging market peers are expected to be on course for a difficult year ahead.

With collapsing oil and metal prices weighing on government finances and jeopardising investments, economists chopped 2015 growth forecasts again for all of Latin America's seven largest countries, from Mexico to Argentina.

Turkey also is on course for a bumpy 2015 despite a fall in inflation while a power crisis in South Africa will undermine investor confidence and crimp economic growth there.

DOHA — Qatar Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell have scrapped plans for a petrochemicals project, worth an estimated $6.5 billion, due to the slump in global oil prices. In a statement issued on Wednesday, Shell said Al Karaana project would not go ahead because of the "high envisaged capital cost that has rendered it commercially unfeasible, particularly in the current economic climate prevailing in the energy industry". The joint venture between the Anglo-Dutch energy giant and state-owned Qatar Petroleum had been signed in December 2011. At the time, it was envisioned that a huge "world-scale petrochemicals complex" would be built in Ras Laffan, an industrial city some 80 kilometres north of Doha. The Qatari company was to own 80 per cent of the project, and Shell the remaining 20 per cent. Last year, it was reported that the project would be completed in 2018. However, the decision not to proceed was taken, said Shell, after "careful and thorough evaluation of commercial quotations". "The fall in oil prices is clearly playing its part," said analyst Keith Bowman at UK-based stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown about the collapse of the project.

CAIRO — Egypt is open to importing gas from Israel, its oil minister said in state-owned media on Wednesday, another sign that it may lean on its neighbour to help tackle its energy troubles.

Egypt is going through its worst energy crisis in decades and is seeking fresh sources of natural gas, which powers most of its homes and factories, including Algeria, Russia and Cyprus.

But importing gas from Israel is more controversial. Popular mistrust of Israel runs high following three wars with Egypt and its continuing occupation of Palestinian land.

Oil Minister Sharif Ismail said gas imports from Israel were a possibility, when asked in an interview by the state-owned Al Mussawar magazine.

"Anything can happen. Whatever achieves the best interests of Egypt, and of the Egyptian economy and the role of Egypt in the region... That will determine the decision to import gas from Israel," he said.

Companies are already negotiating to bring Israeli gas to Egypt, but any deals will hinge on approval from Cairo.

Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, following three decades of intermittent conflict since Israel's creation in 1948.

While many Egyptians still view Israel with suspicion, relations have improved since the army toppled President Mohamed Morsi, an Islamist, in 2013 after mass protests against his rule.

The two countries also have a shared interest in containing the Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and maintaining stability in the Sinai Peninsula where security has deteriorated since Morsi's ouster.

Egypt, which once exported gas to Israel and elsewhere, has become a net energy importer over the last few years.

The government has attempted to improve the energy landscape by slashing subsidies, paying down its debt to foreign energy firms, and negotiating import agreements.

The operators of Israel's offshore Tamar gas field said they had plans to build a pipeline to Egypt's liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in the northeastern port of Damietta, run by a joint venture of Spain's Gas Natural and Italy's Eni .

Israel's Delek Drilling, one of the operating partners, said in November that if an agreement is signed, gas supplies to Egypt could start flowing in 2017.

Separately, Britain launched this week its largest trade mission to Egypt in over a decade, involving more than 40 companies from the top foreign investor in the Arab world's most populous country.

The meeting in a palace-turned-hotel focused on developing the energy, real estate and construction sectors, as well as drumming up foreign involvement in a vaunted expansion of the Suez Canal that aims to create an international commercial hub.

British Middle East Minister Tobias Ellwood said the mission demonstrates London's commitment to boost international investment in Egypt and increase bilateral trade.

"It is part of an ongoing programme of economic cooperation which will include more trade visits and UK participation in the March investment conference," he said, speaking alongside Egyptian Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab and referring to a larger international trade meeting planned for the spring.

Political unrest since the 2011 ouster of longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak has battered the Egyptian economy, leaving the vital tourism industry in tatters and Cairo struggling to attract foreign investors.

Egypt has grown to rely on massive influxes of aid from Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates to keep its economy afloat and buttress the state budget, which is deep in deficit.

The government is reforming investment laws in an attempt to improve transparency and slash Egypt's notorious red tape.

Several areas attract foreign investors, said Angus Blair, chairman of Mideast business consultancy Signet. He added that overcoming bureaucracy and boosting the visibility of projects in urban centres would help surmount hurdles.

"A number of sectors are interesting, first of all construction and infrastructure projects," as well as power, water, retailing and financial services, he indicated. "One of the key elements of change obviously are the developments around the Suez Canal."

The government says the $8.5 billion "mega-project”, based on digging additional waterways for the Suez Canal, could boost revenues from the route connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean to $13 billion annually from its current $5 billion.

States and institutions, Britain included, are encouraging Egypt to press ahead with its declared efforts at economic reform. The government has so far reduced its massive fuel subsidies and plans to phase them out entirely over five years, granting limited allowances only to needy private citizens.

An energy crunch that led to rolling summer blackouts following the 2011 revolt has driven a search for new resources and efficiency. 

Last year, the government began importing coal, and Electricity Minister Mohammed Shaker said at the conference that he was "very impressed by modern clean coal technologies" he saw on a recent trip to China.

"Nuclear energy is now being seriously studied," he said, adding, however, that it remains a politically sensitive issue.

TOULOUSE, France — Airbus said Tuesday it beat Boeing with 1,456 net orders last year, but despite handing over a record 629 planes to airlines in 2014 it is still trailing its US rival in deliveries of commercial passenger jets.

The European aerospace company said in a statement that the results "exceeded its targets for 2014" and that at the end of last year it "commanded more than 50 per cent market share for aircraft above 100 seats".

Airbus said its second-best year ever for new orders propelled it to an industry record backlog of 6,386 aircraft valued at $919.3 billion (777 billion euros) at list prices.

Boeing, which announced its sales and delivery figures last week, had been leading in the orders category throughout the year, but as frequently happens Airbus announced a number of deals in December.

Boeing delivered a record 723 aircraft and took in a record 1,432 orders last year, with its unfilled orders also climbing to a record 5,789 planes.

While the companies focus on the order numbers as they seek to woo even more clients, analysts and investors concentrate on the delivery numbers as the manufacturers get paid when they hand over a plane to airlines.

Airbus chief executive Fabrice Bregier said in a statement that "2014 has been an excellent year and the teams in Airbus not only delivered on, but exceeded their targets and commitments".

At a later press conference, Bregier added: "We will this year deliver slightly higher numbers of aircrafts."

Despite trailing Boeing in overall deliveries, Airbus edged out Boeing in the biggest segment of single-aisle medium-haul aircraft. Airbus delivered 490 of its A320 aircraft while Boeing handed over 485 of its 737 planes to airlines.

These aircraft also accounted for most new orders: 1,321 of Airbus' 1,456 orders last year.

Jumbo confidence

But Airbus missed its target of selling 30 of its superjumbo A380 aircraft, which can carry between 525 and 850 passengers in its different seat configurations, with just 14 net orders.

"We believe we will get additional customers this year," Bregier told journalists for the A380.

He noted the project would break even this year and had more than two years worth of orders at the current production rate of around 30 aircraft per year.

A milestone for Airbus in 2014 was the certification and first delivery of its long-haul A350, the first of its new generation aircraft whose wings and fuselage are made of carbon fibre and which will save up to 25 per cent in fuel consumption.

Boeing had dominated this segment of midsize long-haul aircraft, with its 787 Dreamliner having won over 1,000 orders.

Airbus expects this segment will see demand over the next two decades of 7,800 planes worth around $1 trillion.

This year is also an important one for Airbus for the development of new aircraft.

Much of the company's increase in orders has been for an upgraded model of its A320 aircraft that features new engines and wing modifications that should provide 20 per cent fuel savings.

Airbus hopes to have A320neo certified in the third quarter and begin delivering the plane to clients before the end of the year.

Cheap oil 'always good'

With fuel one of their largest expenses, airlines have been placing many orders for fuel-efficient aircraft in order to ensure they remain competitive in an industry with tight margins.

But the price of oil has more than halved in the past six months to under $50 a barrel.

Airbus executives said they were not concerned.

A "lower price of oil is always good for airlines”, said John Leahy, Airbus' chief operating officer for customers. "Airlines who get more money tend to buy more aircraft".

The Toulouse-based manufacturer also announced Tuesday a longer-range version of its A320 aircraft that it says will able to make transatlantic flights after having received a preliminary order of 30 of the planes from Air Lease Corporation.

The A321neo that is scheduled to enter service in 2019 will have a maximum range of 6.400 kilometres, slightly more than the single aisle Boeing 757 that is no longer in production.

Several airlines have used the Boeing 757 for transatlantic routes, but in the event of strong headwinds the aircraft would need to put down to refuel.

LONDON — Oil tumbled to six-year lows Tuesday on global oversupply and after Saudi Arabia, kingpin of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said the era of $100 crude was over, analysts said. 

At 1243 GMT, February Brent crude was down $1.48 at $45.95 a barrel, after dipping to $45.19, its lowest since March 2009.

US crude for February was down $1.23 at $44.84 a barrel, off an intraday low of $44.20.

"Today a Saudi official reiterated the belief ... that the days of $100 oil are over," said analyst Daniel Sugarman at traders ETX Capital.

"It is unclear whether this is truly what is felt in the corridors of power in Riyadh, or just something intended to stress the firm resolve of OPEC's leading member not to back down from its stance of no output reduction," he added.

Global oil prices have slumped by almost 60 per cent since June, as the market faced abundant supplies, demand fears and a strong dollar in a stuttering global economy.

The slide accelerated in November when OPEC maintained its production ceiling at 30 million barrels per day.

UAE seeks US output cut 

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said Tuesday that the group could not stop world prices plunging, and called for a cut in booming shale oil output in the United States.

Analysts say that richer OPEC members, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have been ready to accept the price fall in the hope that it will force higher-cost shale producers out of the market.

"We cannot continue to be protecting a certain price," UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said.

"We have seen the oversupply, coming primarily from shale oil, and that needed to be corrected," he told participants in the Gulf Intelligence UAE Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi.

Describing OPEC's November decision not to cut output as the right one, he said:

"The strategy will not change". By not reducing output, "we are telling the market and other producers that they need to be rational".

The breakneck growth in shale oil output has made the United States a major producer again and has led to reduced need for crude imports from the Middle East. 

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ali Al Omair said meanwhile that "nobody can justify the drop now", but "we expect this situation to continue until the surplus on the market is absorbed and the world economy improves."

He added that forecasts indicate that this will not happen before the second half of 2015.

Oil had already collapsed on Monday after Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs slashed its price outlook for the commodity, adding to anxiety about a global oversupply, weak demand and soft growth in the key Chinese and European markets.

Rather than cutting output to try to balance the market, OPEC producers are offering discounts to customers in an attempt to defend market share.

"The market is in a bit of a panic now and the momentum is really quite negative. We haven't seen any actions or comments that could reduce this aggressive selling," said Ole Hansen, senior commodity strategist at Saxo Bank.

No china boost

Oil prices have fallen so far that the front-month February contract is now trading about $7 below the July contract, encouraging traders to hire tankers to store oil at sea.

"Once floating storage starts, there is very little support on the downside for Brent spreads," analysts at Energy Aspects said in a note.

Storage plays work when traders can buy cheap oil to sell at a higher price at a future date. Deflationary pressures are beginning to build in both Asian and European economies as demand remains weak. UK inflation dipped to a 14-year low in December.

The downward pressure so great that even record Chinese crude imports for December, above seven million barrels per day for the first time as the world's second largest oil consumer took advantage of low prices to build up reserves, could not lift the market for long.

Banks have slashed their oil price outlook, with analysts at Goldman Sachs cutting their average forecast for Brent in 2015 to $50.40 a barrel from $83.75.

Deutsche Bank cut its Brent forecast to $59.40 a barrel from $72.50, saying physical oil market fundamentals in the first half of this year were the weakest since 1998. "We see few signs that production curtailment is about to happen any time soon," they said in a note.

Separately, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that countries behind the fall in global oil prices would regret their decision and warned that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would suffer alongside Iran from the price drop.

"Those that have planned to decrease the prices against other countries will regret this decision," Rouhani said in a speech broadcast on state television.

"If Iran suffers from the drop in oil prices, know that other oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will suffer more than Iran," he added.

Earlier this month, Iran described Saudi Arabia's inaction in the face of the six-month price slide as a strategic mistake, but hoped that the kingdom, Tehran's main rival in the Gulf, would respond.

On Tuesday, Rouhani singled out Kuwait and Saudi Arabia's budget dependency on oil exports.

Data showed that 80 per cent of Saudi Arabia's budget is based on oil sales, while in Kuwait the figure stands at 95 per cent, he said in a speech in the city of Bushehr.

In 2013, oil accounted for roughly 90 per cent of Saudi Arabia's overall budget income and Kuwait at 92 per cent, according to Reuters' calculations based on official data.

On the other hand, only one-third of Iran's budget is based on oil sales, with an estimated 60 per cent of the country's  exports tied to oil, Rouhani said.

Due to Western sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme, Iran's oil exports have dropped from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2011 to about 1 million barrels per day on average, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Iran had adjusted to the drop in exports due to higher oil prices, but that buffer no longer remains today.

Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Gulf Arab countries have accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars of reserves due to high oil prices over the years.

Saudi authorities appear confident they can ride out the market slide, with state spending set to hit a record this year. 

AMMAN — Aqaba International Industrial Estate (AIIE) plans to transform the Aqaba Special Economic Zone into an advanced industrial centre in the few coming years, AIIE Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Sheldon Fink on Tuesday told a press conference. According to an AIIE statement e-mailed to The Jordan Times, Fink said there are currently 65 logistic and industrial establishments working in AIIE out of 300 it can accommodate. He added that AIIE attracted 65 local, Arab and international investors in different sectors, most of which focused on mineral industries, mineral molding, building materials, plastic industries, food industries and logistics, all of which provided more than 1,000 job opportunities. The CEO noted that 30 per cent of current investments in AIIE are Jordanian, expecting 85 per cent of the total area of AIIE to be operated through a comprehensive developmental plan. The envisioned plan will provide more areas allocated for investment, in cooperation with the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority, so as to attract new Chinese investors after a successful marketing campaign in the Asian country. 

BEIJING — China's trade surplus soared by almost half last year to a record $382 billion, the government announced Tuesday, but the world's second-largest economy again missed its trade growth target due to weakness overseas.

Exports increased 6.1 per cent to $2.34 trillion in 2014, while imports rose 0.4 per cent to $1.96 trillion, the General Administration of Customs indicated on its website.

That translated into a trade surplus of $382.46 billion, the highest ever and a 47.2 per cent increase on 2013.

China's huge trade surpluses were long a source of friction between Beijing and Washington, as the workshop of the world pumped out manufactured goods and US debt mounted, but the issue receded in more recent years. 

Total trade in 2014 rose just 3.4 per cent from the year before, far below authorities' aim of about 7.5 per cent and the third consecutive year the official target has been missed.

"The world economy recovered rather slowly and couldn't support China's trade growing at a high speed," said Customs spokesman Zheng Yuesheng.

"China's comparative advantage of low costs continued to wane, while investment in China's manufacturing industry from developed economies declined, containing trade [growth]," he added, noting that foreign-invested companies are responsible for about half the country's exports.

Zheng attributed the record surplus to falling international commodity prices which dragged down import values.

The trade figures come as China's economy rounds out a disappointing 2014, with growth slowing because of manufacturing weakness, falling property prices and high corporate and local government debt burdens. This prompted the central People's Bank of China (PBoC) in November to cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded an annual 7.3 per cent in the third quarter, the slowest since the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009.

Some economists expect figures showing further weakness at the end of last year and in the year ahead, with authorities openly describing slower and hopefully more sustainable expansion as a "new normal".

'Negative factors' 

For December alone, the trade surplus soared 93.5 per cent year-on-year to $49.6 billion, as exports increased 9.7 per cent to $227.5 billion and imports fell 2.4 per cent to $177.9 billion, customs indicated.

It had initially given the figures in yuan terms, with different percentage changes as a result of exchange rate movements.

The export figure exceeded the median forecast of 6 per cent by 40 economists in a Bloomberg survey, while the fall in imports was less severe than their prediction of a 6.2 per cent decline.

Zheng remarked that while China's trade growth is likely to rebound this year, it faces headwinds.

"We think the negative factors containing trade growth in 2014 will continue for a certain period of time," he said.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said the outlook for overseas shipments should be brighter this year and import growth is likely to remain soft.

"Looking ahead, although the global economy remains fragile, we nonetheless expect growth in many of China's key export markets, such as the US, to stage a slight recovery this year, which should provide support to Chinese exports," he wrote in a note.

"Meanwhile, we think that domestic demand, particularly for commodities, is likely to remain subdued and that those anticipating a stimulus-driven pick-up in investment or a marked turnaround in the property sector will be disappointed," he said. "As such, import growth is likely to remain weak." 

Analysts called for further policy loosening given weak domestic demand.

"With domestic demand growth still depressed, policy easing is still needed," economists of China International Capital Corporation said in a research note.

The record-high trade surplus could lead to volatility in the yuan, which depreciated by 3 per cent against the dollar last year, warned ANZ analysts Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao.

"This divergence has made Chinese corporates become increasingly concerned about their large US dollar debt exposure," they wrote in a report, noting that they could rush to buy dollars. 

"This could lead [to] both currency overshooting and increased volatility in the [yuan] exchange rate going forward," the analysts said,  suggesting that the PBoC would probably intervene in such a scenario to prevent large capital outflows.

Separately, China's auto sales exceeded 23 million vehicles last year, an industry group said Monday, but annual growth halved from 2013 as a weaker economy took its toll on the world's biggest car market.

Sales rose 6.9 per cent, or 1.51 million vehicles, to 23.49 million, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) indicated.

That was short of an 8.3 per cent growth target given by CAAM in July, itself a cut from an earlier forecast of 10 per cent, Bloomberg News reported. 

In 2013, sales surged 13.9 per cent to 21.98 million vehicles, helped by a recovery in Japanese brands that were earlier hurt by a political row between Beijing and Tokyo.

CAAM described 2014 sales as "stable" in a statement.

"Faced with a complex international environment and the arduous task of domestic reform, development and stability, the auto sector... achieved sound development," it said.

At least seven cities have slapped limits on vehicle numbers to cut congestion and pollution, including the southern boomtown of Shenzhen, which just announced a new policy to issue only 100,000 licence plates annually.

But China remained the world's biggest auto market last year, a title it has held since 2009, well ahead of the United States. 

Industry consultant Autodata has estimated total US sales last year reached 16.5 million units, up 5.9 per cent from 2013.

Foreign brands shine 

China's passenger car sales, which account for the bulk of the market, rose a stronger 9.9 per cent to 19.70 million vehicles in 2014, CAAM pointed out.

"The performance of the passenger car sector was within expectations and the slower overall growth is mainly due to a decline in sales of commercial vehicles," John Zeng, general manager of LMC Automotive Consulting in Shanghai, told AFP.

For 2015, passenger car sales were likely to maintain "relatively high" growth of 9 to 10 per cent, but an economic slowdown and stricter emissions regulations will hurt overall vehicle sales, Zeng said.

He forecast overall auto sales growth of 7.2 per cent for this year, nearly unchanged from 2014.

Foreign automakers in China outpaced the overall market, with Germany's Volkswagen (VW) as well as General Motors (GM) and Ford of the United States all reporting record sales for last year.

VW delivered 3.67 million cars to customers in China in 2014, up 12.4 per cent, the company said Sunday, despite recalling more than 500,000 of its vehicles.

GM sold 3.54 million vehicles in China, up 12 per cent from the previous high in 2013, it said last week.

"GM expects industry demand to rise once again this year in China," President of GM China Matt Tsien said in a statement.

Ford sold 1.11 million vehicles in China in 2014, up 19 per cent from 2013, according to the company.

According to CAAM, the market share of Chinese companies for passenger cars alone fell 2.1 percentage points in 2014, but gave no overall figure. Chinese firms held a 40.3 per cent market share for passenger vehicles in 2013, previous figures showed.

DUBAI/DOHA — A diplomatic push by Venezuela and Iran for an oil output cut by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has failed to soften the refusal of the group's Gulf members to do so for now, delegates said on Monday.

An oil price sinking under $49 a barrel on Monday is twisting the knife in Venezuela's steadily shrinking economy and in sanctions-bound Iran.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Sunday met Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Salman in Riyadh before heading to Qatar and Algeria on a tour to discuss the oil price crisis.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also weighed in and told Venezuela's president on Saturday he backed coordinated action between Tehran and Caracas to reverse the more than 50 per cent drop in crude since June 2014.

But the Gulf members of OPEC, who account for more than half of the 12-member group's output, are holding to their stance from OPEC's November meeting in Vienna.

"There's a push from Venezuela for a cut, this is what they argued in Vienna and this is what they are lobbying for now. But from what I see there is no sign of cutting production from the Gulf states," a Gulf OPEC delegate said.

"The only solution is to have the market absorb this surplus and the extent of that will be assessed by OPEC by ministers during their meeting in June," he added.

Another delegate said: "You need to give it some time to see the effect on prices. I think the Saudi oil minister was very clear on that."

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi has said he convinced his fellow OPEC ministers that it is not in the group's interest to cut oil output, however, far prices may fall.

During Maduro's visit to Saudi Arabia, it was agreed that a high-level commission between the two countries would meet every four months to review the market, a diplomatic source said.

The source added that during Maduro's meeting in Qatar, concern was expressed about prices but Qatar made no promises or commitments as to what action should be taken.

OPEC holds its next scheduled meeting in June and sources say there has been no suggestion that it gather before then.

Saudi Arabia is unwilling to shoulder any output cut unilaterally and any cut has to be a collective one by all OPEC members, the sources said.

But Libya, Iraq, and Iran can all plead for an exemption from an output cut since they are either affected by war or sanctions, an argument that some other producers reject.

"The only way for any agreement to work is a full commitment. Venezuela, Algeria, Iran, Nigeria and Iraq all have to cut," another OPEC source said.

CAIRO — The successful roll-out so far of a new "smart card" system to distribute subsidised bread has been a major achievement for Egypt's government, saving money while earning praise from families who no longer have to wake early to fight for loaves.

President Abdul Fattah Al Sisi appears to be succeeding where predecessors Hosni Mubarak and Mohamed Morsi both failed in the delicate task of reforming a system that has drained the state's finances while angering the population.

While the government still has a long way to go to roll out the new system countrywide, success so far marks an important civilian achievement for the president, a former army chief mainly known for security issues, including a harsh crackdown against Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood followers.

"In the time of Mubarak and Morsi, there was no organisation at bakeries. People fought each other. Now we all take what we need and there's bread for all," said Bakhita Ibrahim, a Cairo resident at a bakery in the Sayyeda Zeinab district.

For generations, Egypt's government has fed the public by distributing subsidised flour to bakeries, which sell bread for as little as 5 piastres a loaf, less than one US cent.

The system turned Egypt into the world's biggest importer of wheat, draining the government's foreign currency reserves: Cairo spends $3 billion a year on imports for it.

Nor has it pleased the public. Bread has been sold on a "first come, first served" basis, forcing people to queue up for hours in the morning to get it before it runs out, and sometimes leading to violence.

Those who arrive at the bakery early sometimes buy extra bread to feed to their livestock. Meanwhile, those who arrive too late can get nothing. And bakers are widely accused of siphoning off flour to sell on the black market, profiting while running up the government's bills.

Under the new system, families are issued plastic cards allowing them to buy five loaves per family member per day. Buyers no longer have to queue. Bakeries are paid for the subsidised loaves they sell, rather than being given a fixed allotment of cheap flour, making it harder to siphon off subsidies.

‘More accountable’

The cards have so far been introduced in 17 of Egypt's 29 provinces and consumption in those areas is already down between 15 to 35 per cent, Supplies Minister Khaled Hanafi, who has led the reforms, told Reuters.

Hanafi forecasts that once rolled out nationwide, the reforms will eliminate enough waste to enable Egypt to cut imports by 20 to 30 per cent, without depriving needy citizens.

While those figures could not be independently confirmed, they seemed to be born out at bakeries using smart cards in four provinces visited by Reuters, where bakers confirmed that they were making less bread due to the reforms.

The reforms have made him "more accountable", says Hamdy Eid, a baker in Suez City, scene of some of the most violent demonstrations protests during the 2011 revolt that brought down Mubarak. Customers were lined up peacefully, presenting their cards to an employee who swiped them through a card reader.

"In the past they have accused us bakers of stealing and working in the black market for flour," Eid said.

In areas where the reforms have yet to be implemented, discontent  with the old system still simmers.

"I have to wake up at dawn to get bread to avoid big crowds," said Ibrahim Osman, a grocer in the southern city of Aswan. In Fayoum, just south of Cairo, housewife Samira Moustafa said she views bakers as "cheaters".

Potent mix

Bread and politics have been a potent mix for decades in Egypt, a nation that now has 90 million people, mostly poor.

Mubarak's predecessor Anwar Sadat faced protests in 1977 after he tried to cut bread subsidies. Unrest broke out under Mubarak, notably in 2008 when the rising price of wheat caused shortages, and three years later, bread was a rallying cry for the protests that finally toppled him.

Morsi never managed to implement his plan for smart cards, blaming the bureaucracy for sabotaging reforms. Frustration and anxiety over the failure to fix subsidies helped fuel the protests that led to Sisi removing him from power.

Even now, government officials tasked with implementing it worry whether the new smart card system is air-tight enough to squeeze out middlemen working the black market.

"Those who depend on corruption are not easily going to go along with reforms," said a supplies ministry official on condition of anonymity.

Hanafi, the minister, acknowledges that the old system had its "beneficiaries". He said he had held hundreds of meetings with bakers to win over their cooperation with the changes.

"I had to convince them, I had to make compromises to reach this point," he said. "For 40 or 50 years this was a nightmare for Egyptians."

LONDON — Britain's opposition Labour Party said it would try to introduce a law to give the energy regulator the power to force firms to cut prices in response to falls in wholesale costs, a move it hopes will boost it four months before a national election.

The plan, announced on Sunday by Ed Miliband, the party's leader, will see Labour bring forward a vote on a motion to fast-track such legislation before parliament on Wednesday.

Miliband called on the governing Conservatives and Liberal Democrats to support the new law. Prime Minister David Cameron has balked at similar ideas before, portraying them as meddling in the free market.

"We've seen wholesale costs go down 20 per cent in gas prices over the last year and no reduction in bills," Miliband said.

"We'll give the regulator the power to cut prices to bring immediate relief," Miliband told BBC TV's Andrew Marr Show, referring to Ofgem.

Labour's move is meant to appeal to voters, many of whom have felt their living standards squeezed by inflation outstripping wages until recently, before what is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in decades.

A sharp drop in oil prices has led to a fall in petrol prices in Britain and politicians are seeking to court voters by competing to sound tougher on firms perceived to be not cutting their prices fast enough.

A 2013 proposal by Miliband to freeze gas and electricity prices for 20 months gave his party a temporary lift in opinion polls. It was criticised by the country's big six energy suppliers and business groups.

Energy UK, a group representing the industry, said on Sunday firms were already passing on savings to consumers and that pricing was a commercial matter for individual companies.

"No new powers are needed," Lawrence Slade, chief executive of Energy UK, said in a statement.

"When people shop around they can easily find deals that are over a hundred pounds cheaper than this time last year and in line with falls in the wholesale energy price part of energy bills," he added.

Conservative finance minister, George Osborne, last week said it was vital that the lower oil price be passed onto families "at petrol pumps, through utility bills and air fares". 

Danny Alexander, the Liberal Democrats' most senior figure in the same ministry, has made similar comments.

While Cameron's Conservatives want to fight the election on their record of presiding over an economic recovery, Labour want to use the energy question, among others, to highlight what they say has been a cost of living crisis, a charge they hope will blunt the Conservatives' economic boasts.

Miliband on Sunday called for the introduction of a new benchmark, an "independent Living Standards Index", to measure people's well being.

An opinion poll released by YouGov on Sunday had Labour and the Conservatives tied on 32 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 7 per cent, the United Kingdom Independence Party on 18 per cent, and the Greens on 6 per cent.

Separately, British Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives on Sunday pledged to cut inheritance tax so it became a levy only for "the rich" as they sought to woo pensioners and property-owners before a close national election in four months.

George Osborne, the Conservative finance minister, gave his strongest signal yet he would reduce the tax, also known as death duties, saying he would set out plans before the May 7 election to make the system fairer.

"I have taken steps to help with inheritance, making sure that people can pass on their pension to their children," Osborne told The Sunday Times newspaper in an interview.

"David Cameron has made it clear, as have I, that we believe inheritance tax is a tax that should be paid by the rich and we will set out our further approach closer to the election," he said.

Inheritance tax has become increasingly unpopular with many Britons as rising property prices, particularly in London, mean a greater proportion of people are liable to pay it.

The Conservatives are keen to portray themselves as tax cutters and the rival opposition Labour Party as big borrowers and spenders, a charge the left-wing party, which is narrowly ahead in most opinion polls, rejects.