Business

AMMAN — The Ministry of Labour wants to build up a real partnership with the private sector as part of its endeavour to improve the living standard of citizens, Minister Ali Ghezawi said on Saturday. 

Speaking at a meeting with several Amman Chamber of Trade board members, he asserted the ministry’s support of employment initiatives targeting young unemployed people and working to assist them towards starting their own small business projects, according to a statement of the chamber. 

It is time to foster a culture of self-employment and encourage young people to establish their own small projects; thus they can become business owners rather than jobseekers, Ghezawi told the attendees, also comprising Social Security Corporation Director General Nadia Rawbdeh and the ministry’s secretary general, Farouq Hadidi. 

The ministry will take the commercial sector's remarks pertaining to labour legislation into consideration, in addition to those regarding training needs, he said, underscoring the importance that the ministry attaches to training initiatives that hone young people’s skills and lead to employment.

Ghezawi urged the private sector to pay more attention and make sure that the training initiatives reach out to young unemployed people outside Amman, especially those in remote areas which lack investment projects, highlighting the importance of enrolling in vocational and technical education.

He added that the ministry will also carry out inspection tours of business enterprises and make sure that they abide by the rules and regulations on hiring the required ratio of persons with disability.

Addressing the attendees, the chamber’s president, Issa Murad, highlighted the importance of adopting new procedures for commercial entities’ inspection.

Murad, who is also a senator, also stressed the need to raise business entities' awareness and provide them with guidelines on occupational hazards and safety standards, in lieu of issuing warnings or fines that end up with their closure. He also emphasised the importance of briefing them on work permit conditions.

LONDON — Deutsche Telekom is considering selling its 12 per cent stake in BT Group, two sources familiar with the matter said, paving the way for it to leave the British telecom market following Britain's vote to quit the European Union.

The German group is evaluating a potential sale of its stake, which has a market value of £4.4 billion ($5.47 billion), and will take a final decision once it has more clarity on the kind of deal Britain will strike with the EU next year, the sources said.

While there is no certainty a deal will happen, Deutsche Telekom's deliberations are one signal that foreign companies are rethinking their strategic investments in Britain in the wake of the Brexit vote.

The fall in the value of the pound and forecasts that economic growth will shrink as a result of Britain losing access to the European single market have cast a shadow over the country's attractiveness as a place for foreign companies to hold strategic investments.

Deutsche Telekom declined to comment and a spokesperson for BT Group said the British company does not comment on rumour and speculation.

Deutsche Telekom is restricted by a lock-up agreement to sell its stake in BT before August 2017 unless it agrees an off-market deal with financial investors.

The company also operates an IT and consulting business in Britain through its subsidiary T-Systems, which DT once tried to merge with BT's Global Services unit but is now rumoured to be selling.

Deutsche Telekom became BT's largest shareholder when the British telecom group bought mobile player EE for GBP 12.5 billion last year, in which France's Orange and DT had 50 per cent each.

An exit from Britain would allow Deutsche Telekom to concentrate on its larger business in the United States, which has been touted as a possible takeover target following a string of deals in the US telecoms, media and technology sector.

Freeing up capital from Britain would allow Deutsche Telekom the option to do a deal itself and remove the threat of an uninvited takeover bid.

Britain represents a relatively small part of Deutsche Telekom's value while its US operation accounts for 42 per cent of total revenue, exceeding its home market, which constitutes 32 per cent, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Analysts have identified the company's T-Mobile US business as a possible deal target in the US telecom space following AT&T's $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner last week. Potential bidders would include Comcast Corp., satellite-TV provider Dish Network Corp., and Mexican telecom company America Movil, they said.

"If DT wants to remain a competitive, independent player in the US, they'll need to team-up with a cable player like Sprint", said one of the sources.

Deutsche Telekom owns 65 per cent of the T-Mobile US which has a market value of $40 billion.

Deutsche Telekom would want to assess how much they need to spend on US spectrum and how much capital will be required to take part in sector consolidation in the United States and in Europe before making any final call on Britain, one of the sources said.

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia has avoided an economic crisis due to low oil prices this year but the outlook for state finances and growth will remain murky for many months to come, businessmen and analysts in the kingdom say.

Six months after the government launched its most radical economic reforms in decades, it has scored several victories. Drastic spending cuts seem to be reducing its budget deficit, which totalled a record 367 billion riyals ($98 billion) last year, by much more than originally planned.

A $17.5 billion sovereign bond issue last month opened an overseas borrowing channel which Riyadh can use to slow the drawdown of its foreign reserves, buying more time to adjust its economy to an era of cheap oil, and for the foreseeable future almost eliminating the risk of a currency devaluation.

The government has accomplished this without any significant political backlash. While ordinary Saudis grumble at the austerity on social media, many say they understand the need for it, and businessmen praise the authorities' decisiveness.

But big questions remain. It is not clear whether the government can continue cutting its deficit rapidly without pushing the country into recession, and many corporate executives think the worst of the economic slump is yet to come.

"Next year there will be high uncertainty, though we do not expect a huge decline," said Mazen Al Sudairi, head of research at local firm Al Istithmar Capital. "The private sector is facing a lot of challenges."

A foreign banker in Riyadh, who like many executives declined to speak publicly for fear of irritating Saudi officials, agreed the economy had escaped a fiscal and currency crisis that loomed at the start of 2016. Central bank data shows no sign of rising capital flight from the country, he noted.

"But this does not mean the basic problems are solved," he said. "Next year will be a very tough year."

Deficit

Bankers in contact with Saudi economic officials expect the 2016 budget deficit, which will be revealed when the government announces its 2017 budget plan in late December, to come in well below Riyadh's original projection of 326 billion riyals.

Sudairi predicted a deficit of 190 billion riyals; Jadwa Investment, a leading investment bank, forecasts 265 billion riyals. Such a figure would allow Riyadh to claim major progress in its effort to eliminate the deficit by 2020.

Some of the progress, though, is due not to sustainable spending cuts but to unpaid bills. The government has reduced or suspended payments that it owes to construction firms, medical establishments and even some of the foreign consultants who helped to design the economic reforms. Sudairi estimated unpaid dues for construction firms alone totalled 80 billion riyals.

This reduces Riyadh's outgoings for now but stores up obligations in the future. It also worsens the impact on the economy of state spending cuts, and has contributed to severe financial problems at some big construction firms.

Outgoing Finance Minister Ibrahim Alassaf said in mid-October that payments to construction firms would now rise — apparently a recognition of the damage that the payment delays were doing to the economy. He didn't elaborate.

Signs of the economic slump can be seen in Riyadh and other major cities, where discounts of 50 per cent or more are offered by stores selling clothes and consumer electronics, and there is a surge in people offering second-hand cars for sale. 

There used to be long waiting lists for compounds housing well-off expatriates; the lists have shrunk or disappeared, and more villas in the compounds are vacant.

The non-oil sector of the economy has shrunk from a year earlier in two of the three quarters through June, while earnings of listed Saudi companies shrank 2 per cent in the third quarter of 2016, NCB Capital calculated.

There may be worse to come. In September, the government cut allowances paid to employees the public sector, where two-thirds of Saudis work; some analysts estimated this might reduce those people's disposable incomes by 20 per cent. 

The central bank has spread some of that pain to the banking sector by telling banks to reschedule public employees' consumer and property loans.

"The public sector pay cuts were a shock. The effect will spread through the economy in the next few months," said a senior fund manager in Riyadh. "For the corporate sector, the first quarter of next year will be the worst."

The economy is expected to start recovering in the second half of 2017, he said. But several factors suggest the recovery may be slow and uncertain.

Between 1 million and 2 million of Saudi Arabia's 10 million foreign workers may leave over the next couple of years as the economic slowdown causes lay-offs and the government seeks to steer Saudi citizens into jobs previously held by foreigners, said a top executive at a big Saudi company.

That would reduce outward remittances of money, helping Saudi Arabia's balance of payments further, but it would drag on economic growth. The official unemployment rate among Saudis is likely to rise to 13 per cent next year from 11.6 per cent, a local economist said.

The planned introduction of a 5 per cent value-added tax in 2018, an important step to strengthen state finances, will also hit consumption.

The biggest uncertainty may be how authorities can push through a key part of their reform drive — fostering a vibrant private sector that does not depend on oil revenues — in the face of austerity policies that are suppressing private demand.

For example, the government is trying to stimulate the housing industry. But Jamil Ghaznawi, local director of real estate services firm JLL, said smaller developers — who provided 85 per cent of the stock in the market — had actually slowed their activity in the past 18 months as austerity reduced home buyers' incomes and weakened construction firms' finances.

CAIRO — Egypt's pound plunged in value on Thursday as the central bank floated the currency to address a dollar crunch that threatened to cause some imports to grind to a halt.

The dollar was trading Thursday on official markets at between 13.5 and 14 Egyptian pounds, according to several banks contacted by AFP, up sharply from the previous rate of 8.8.

The government of President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi is rolling out an austerity programme and seeking billions in support from abroad in order to meet conditions, including devaluation, for a $12 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.

Floating the pound had long been among a list of measures demanded by investors and international creditors, but had been avoided in the fear that rising prices could provoke unrest.

Thursday's central bank decision came as a surprise, after officials said they would only consider a flotation once foreign reserves reached $25 billion, up from September's $19.6 billion.

The bank said in a statement it had moved to a "liberalised exchange rate... to create an environment for a reliable and sustainable supply of foreign currency". 

Egypt has struggled to boost its foreign currency reserves in the political and economic turmoil following the January 2011 uprising that toppled former ruler Hosni Mubarak.

The IMF welcomed the central bank's decision, saying it will "make more foreign exchange available".

The move "will improve Egypt's external competitiveness, support exports and tourism and attract foreign investment", IMF Mission Chief for Egypt Chris Jarvis said in a Thursday statement.

The flotation follows comments last week from IMF Chief Christine Lagarde claiming Egypt was undergoing a currency "crisis" and suggesting a quick devaluation to tackle a widening gap between the official and black market rates.

Egypt's EGX 30 stock index jumped more than 8 per cent after opening to 9,231 points.

On the black market this week the dollar was trading at a historic high of 18 pounds before losing value amid speculation of a devaluation.

Importers and businesses had been forced to resort to the black market for dollars, with the high prices making their businesses increasingly unfeasible.

The central bank said banks would be allowed to open until 9pm (1900 GMT) and over the weekend to make transactions.

Egypt's prime minister and Central Bank Governor were scheduled to hold a press conference on the move by 1600 GMT.

'Recovery' 

The bank's decision should help undercut the black market trade and ease access to dollars, said Mohamed Abu Basha, an economist with EFG Hermes investment bank.

"We should start to see money migrating from outside the banking system to the banking system," he told AFP.

"In a few months we should expect to see a start of a recovery in economic activity," he added.

Egypt's foreign currency reserves of $19.6 billion in September were 50 per cent below the level in early 2011.

Much of the money went to propping up the pound against the dollar with incremental devaluations well short of the rates offered by the black market, increasingly the only recourse for importers.

In an interview last week with Bloomberg Television, Lagarde applauded Egypt's planned reforms, including its austerity programme.

She said the IMF was ready to support the government if it took measures needed to meet loan conditions.

IMF Spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in Washington last week that loans from Saudi Arabia and China could help Egypt gather the $5-$6 billion in additional financing required to complement the IMF lending.

Rice said Cairo had already adopted a new budget, approved a value-added tax, and developed a plan on energy subsidies.

"I think they're very close and clearly the financing is one of the aspects that they need to lock in," Lagarde said, commenting on the loans.

"Hopefully we'll be able to secure the IMF board approval in the next few weeks."

CAIRO/ABU DHABI — Cairo grocer Bakr Atef has stopped selling sugar since authorities seized his stocks last month, accusing him of hoarding as a growing economic crisis angers Egyptians and raises fears of street protests.

"They are coming and taking any quantity they find. Even if you are selling just 10 kilos, they'll take it... if they do this again and I lose my goods, it will shut my shop," said Atef, who insists he has done nothing wrong.

Egyptians love sugar, heaping large spoonfuls into their cups of tea. It is sold in government supermarkets as part of a massive food aid programme for the poor.

But public uproar over sugar shortages has prompted the government to sweep the country, confiscating supplies from businesses it accuses of hoarding.

Sugar is the latest vital commodity to be thrown into crisis in Egypt this year. A row over regulations left the world's biggest wheat importing nation unable to obtain the supplies it needed on the global market, while a dispute over prices caused a shortage of rice despite a bumper crop.

The sugar crisis raises questions about President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi's management of the economy just as his government seeks to secure a $12 billion loan from the IMF.

More austerity is expected as a condition for the loan, on top of tax and price increases, raising fears of a repeat of the street protests that drove two of Sisi's predecessors from office. A currency crisis has cut imports and caused large areas of business to seize up.

The sugar raids came to a head when authorities briefly seized 2,000 tonnes at confectionery maker Edita, one of the largest companies listed on the Egyptian stock exchange.

But while a shortage of dollars has reduced imports generally, traders and grocers say the sugar crisis was self-inflicted — the direct result of the state's takeover of their sugar reserves and distribution network earlier this year.

Traders say that despite ample supplies in its warehouses the government is simply not getting the sugar out to the stores where ordinary Egyptians can buy it.

"The government suspects the traders of hoarding but it is actually the government that is hoarding the stocks," a Middle East sugar trader told Reuters.

Egypt consumes 3 million tonnes of sugar a year but produces just over 2 million tonnes, with the gap filled by government and private imports usually purchased between July and October.

Traders say the crisis began in August, when the supply ministry raided sugar factories nationwide and seized 250,000 tonnes — most of the reserves held by the private sector — to secure supplies for its subsidised food outlets after failing to procure its usual shipments on time.

That coincided with high prices on the international sugar market while a rapid fall in the Egyptian pound and a 20 percent import tariff to protect local producers discouraged private importers from buying in the usual quantities.

With private sector imports low and stocks under government control, prices shot up, shelves went bare, and talk of a crisis dominated local media ahead of calls for a protest on November 11 over deteriorating economic conditions.

Speaking in parliament this week, Supply Minister Mohamed Ali Meselhy said the government had responded to the crisis by increasing the amount of sugar sold at its outlets to 240,000 tonnes in October from 70,000 normally.

But merchants say this is not enough, because the government is not releasing the sugar it seized from the private sector in August and is stepping up its confiscatory raids.

Atef, the Cairo grocer, had just 350 kilogrammes at his supermarket when government inspectors took it all away.

When he produced receipts showing his sugar was obtained legally, prosecutors told him the goods would not be returned but he would be reimbursed at half the price he had paid.

Fearing further raids, merchants and retailers like Atef are no longer buying sugar, which makes the supply squeeze worse.

Frozen supply chain

Atef is at the tail end of a sugar supply chain that traders say has been badly disrupted by the intervention of a government keen to show it is protecting consumers from exploitation by self-serving merchants.

Though the government has now ramped up its own imports — buying 250,000 tonnes to meet demand for sugar sold at government outlets — the supplies seized from the private sector remain in its hands.

The supply ministry has taken on a new role controlling the sugar distribution network, allocating stocks to food producers, supermarkets, and outlets across the country, and cutting out private sector distributors.

Traders say the new system is highly inefficient and has caused more shortages.

"It's as if you are selling bottled water to all of Egypt from one warehouse — how will it go to Siwa and Aswan and Luxor?" an Egypt-based sugar trader said.

"Before there were distribution channels that functioned very well, but now the government is doing it, and it's a complete failure."

The supply ministry has blamed smuggling for the continuing shortage. It raised the price of sugar at its outlets to 7 pounds from 5 pounds per kilo to counter such activity.

The ministry has meanwhile dispatched inspectors to seize sugar it says has leaked from subsidised outlets and been re-sold at a mark-up, leaving the private market wary that any remaining stocks will be seized.

The government pressure comes despite Egypt enjoying overall stocks of about 650,000 tonnes, the second sugar trader said, or nearly enough to satisfy both private and public sector needs until the local harvest in February.

"There is enough sugar in government stocks ... enough to resolve the crisis," said Ahmed Wakil, head of one of the country's largest commodity supply companies, who has urged the government to release all seized stocks.

"But the current distribution system is creating the problem. If they return to the old distribution channels, this will be resolved."

ZHUHAI, China — Aerospace giants Boeing and Airbus took potshots at one another at the Zhuhai Air Show, as the US and European rivals seek to capture more of China’s booming aircraft market.

China is one of the Western manufacturers’ key battlegrounds, with its travellers taking to the skies in ever-growing numbers.

The country’s airlines will need nearly 6,000 new planes worth $945 billion over the next two decades, Airbus said in its 2016-2035 Global Market Forecast. 

Boeing’s expectations are even more optimistic, for 6,800 aircraft costing $1 trillion.

To win favour locally both have built partnerships with Chinese firms.

Airbus has a completion and delivery centre in Tianjin, where workers install furnishings and apply paint to aircraft for the domestic market. It also buys parts such as exit doors, brake blades and wing sections from Chinese suppliers.

Boeing is planning to open a facility with the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China (COMAC) to paint and install cabins for 737-model planes, the Chinese firm said.

Eric Chen, the president of Airbus China, dismissed the Seattle firm’s plan as “close to one generation” behind his own firm, saying it was following Airbus’ strategy “with a lot of reluctance”.

“I got two impressions,” he said at a briefing at the China Airshow in Zhuhai, the industry’s biggest event in the country. “First one, the decision we made 10 years ago was right. The second impression is that we are well in advance of our competitor.”

Darren Hulst, the managing director for Northeast Asia marketing at Boeing, earlier told reporters that the Airbus A350 fell short of the 787 widebody plane in range, capacity, carbon emissions, window size and aerodynamics.

“The 787 is capable and has technology and features built into it that are not available on the A350, which was obviously introduced later into the market,” he said.

He added the company had 14 China deliveries of 787-9s in 2016 and had secured orders and commitments for 46 more.

Future rivals 

While the two megafirms see a sunny future in China, homegrown competitors backed by Beijing aim to beat them at home — and ultimately abroad. 

Chinese authorities have urged companies to acquire technology and skills in a range of high-value sectors including aerospace in the “Made in China 2025” plan.

At the same time as it is working with both Boeing and Airbus, COMAC is developing single-aisle jets to compete with them. Its C919 narrow-body is going up against the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 in the 160-seat segment, which the Chinese company predicts will have more than 17,000 deliveries over the next 20 years.

In Zhuhai COMAC announced that state-owned China Eastern Airlines had committed to buy 20 C919s.

In the summer COMAC’s regional jet, the 90-seat ARJ21, flew its first commercial flight after years of delays.

Boeing, Airbus and Canadian regional builder Bombardier all played down the threat of Chinese competition.

But the business climate has darkened for US and European firms in the country, with the American Chamber of Commerce in China reporting this year that more than three-quarters of survey respondents felt “less welcome” there.

Pessimism among European companies hit an all-time high in the summer, according to a European Chamber of Commerce in China report on the “increasingly hostile” business climate. 

Chinese-built planes are sure to secure market share in the country, Eric Lin, Hong Kong-based director of Asia transport research with UBS Securities, told AFP.

In the short term, he added, foreign firms have little to fear from Chinese rivals in the developed countries that are their home market.

“But after 10 years, it’s hard to say,” he noted.

China has a history of adapting foreign technology with remarkable swiftness, turning from a buyer of Russian military aircraft to a producer of advanced stealth jets in 20 years. Its high-speed rail and clean energy industries went from collaborators to competitors faster than global rivals anticipated.

Like all foreign firms with valuable intellectual property operating in China, the aerospace giants understand the risks of training their future rivals, said Christopher Balding, professor of economics at Peking University’s HSBC Business School.

But they are stuck between a rock and a hard place, he added, because shareholders want them to fight for Chinese market share.

“Even if they don’t come to China, there’s a good chance that if they are doing anything innovative it’s going to get stolen anyway, so the only thing they are doing is harming their revenue.”

RIYADH — The global oil market should be balanced early next year, the president of Saudi Aramco said on Tuesday, after over-supply drove prices to multi-year lows in 2016.

“The gap between supply and demand is closing,” Amin Nasser told an international energy forum. He said the state oil company’s analysis sees the market “balanced by the first half of 2017”.

Last week, the chief of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the market would rebalance earlier than expected if major crude producers implement a deal to cap output when they meet next month.

Under current conditions, the IEA expects global output to exceed demand until the second half of 2017, Fatih Birol said in Singapore.

But he said that if OPEC and non-OPEC producers intervene in the markets, “this rebalance can be earlier than the second half of 2017”.

In a surprise move, members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia agreed in September on a deal to trim production.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari met on Tuesday  with leaders from the Niger Delta and representatives of militant groups who have been attacking oil facilities in the region.

This is Buhari’s first meeting with Delta leaders since militants started a wave of attacks on oil pipelines earlier this year to get a greater share of oil revenues.

The attacks in Nigeria, an OPEC member, put four key export streams under force majeure, and led production to plunge to just 1.37 million barrels per day in May. 

This has been the lowest level since July 1988, according to the International Energy Agency, from 2.2 million barrels in January 2016.

RIYADH — The Saudi energy minister said Tuesday that a multibillion-dollar technology investment fund the kingdom is developing in partnership with Japan’s SoftBank showed its determination to diversify its economy.

Khaled Al Falih told an international forum that the proposed new fund “is simply one indication of this determination and the bold steps being taken” to reorient the economy of the world’s biggest oil exporter.

Since 2014, global oil prices have collapsed by about half, accelerating Saudi efforts to move away from petroleum, which still accounts for the bulk of government income.

Falih told the KAPSARC Energy Dialogue that in the past the kingdom had not implemented diversification policies “as efficiently as we should have”.

Vision 2030 — a wide-ranging plan released in April — was a “proactive response” to build a diversified economy led by the private sector and with international investments providing alternative revenue sources, he said.

At the heart of the Vision is a plan to float less than 5 per cent of the state oil company, Saudi Aramco, on the stock market to help create the world’s biggest state investment fund.

Under the non-binding agreement reached with SoftBank in October, the kingdom’s contribution to the new fund could reach $45 billion. 

SoftBank said it hoped to raise up to $100 billion for the fund designed to invest in promising technology firms.

Although Saudi Arabia wants to seize opportunities in a world that will be increasingly technology intensive, Falih said the kingdom would not reduce the contribution of its traditional pillars of oil and gas, petrochemicals and mining.

It will rather be “enhancing the development of other industrial and economic sectors to rebalance and accelerate the growth of the overall economy”.

The kingdom projects a budget deficit of $87 billion this year.

It has taken a series of austerity measures, including subsidy cuts, salary reductions and delays in major projects.

Two weeks ago, the kingdom’s first international bond issue raised $17.5 billion.

On Monday night, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz, 80, sacked veteran Finance Minister Ibrahim Al Assaf, 67, who supervised the successful bond offering.

He is the latest long-serving minister replaced in a government where Salman’s son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, 31, wields unusual power and symbolises the potential of youth in a kingdom where more than half of Saudi citizens are aged under 25.

London-based analysts at Capital Economics said they do not think Assaf’s dismissal signals a change in the government’s approach to lower oil prices.

“The new finance minister, Mohammed Aljadaan, is generally considered to be a reformer within the government and a close ally” of Prince Mohammed, Capital Economics said.

Aljadaan headed the kingdom’s stock market regulator and supervised the bourse’s opening last year to foreign investors.

CAIRO — Business is grinding to a near-halt in Egypt as companies struggle to keep pace with a rapid slide in the black market value of the pound. Factories are halting production, shops are running low on stocks and a sense of panic is spreading.

Bassem Hussein, whose company imports, processes and packages coffee and spices, stopped buying two weeks ago as the depreciation of the Egyptian currency gathered pace. His goods are still on sale at supermarkets but no more stock is on the way for now.

"No one knows what is happening. We stopped buying and selling two weeks ago. We're only doing retail," said Hussein, a manager at family-run Interfood. "It's not logical and it's not just us, it's all merchants."

The Egyptian pound has been falling on the black market since the 2011 revolution drove away tourists and foreign investors, vital sources of hard currency in an economy that relies on imports of everything from food to luxury cars.

But firms say a dramatic slide in the last few weeks has left them paralysed, unable to plan from one day to the next.

Black market traders were buying dollars at 17.5-17.85 pounds on Monday and selling them to importers at 18-18.2, representing a two-pound slide in a single week and five-pound slide on the month.

The pound is now worth half as much on the black market as it is in the banks, where the official rate remains fixed at 8.8 but where dollar supplies are strictly rationed.

Foreign reserves have dwindled from $36 billion before 2011 to about $19.6 billion in September, despite Egypt receiving tens of billions of dollars in aid from Gulf Arab allies.

Capital controls introduced in early 2015 to prioritise essentials such as wheat have forced importers on to the black market, where the rate has depreciated fast.

Companies have complained for nearly two years, with the dollar crisis already squeezing smaller firms out of business.

But the crisis entered new territory last week as two of Egypt's largest listed manufacturers raised the alarm.

Cigarette-maker Eastern Company warned that its raw materials stocks had halved and that it may have to halt production and sales if dollar shortages persist.

As part of efforts to slash the trade deficit it blames for distortions in the currency market, the government has raised customs duties on luxury goods and set stricter import rules.

Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil has said local production rose 20 per cent this year, to substitute for imports.

But manufacturers say they rely on imported components and parts they buy with dollars obtained at black market rates.

"We used to feel it weekly, now the impact is daily. It's not just wood, it's all our materials, 50 per cent up on a month ago," said Ibrahim Hashem, who runs a furniture factory in Alexandria and buys imported wood priced in dollars.

"There is a limit... It may reach the stage where I do my calculations and find that no one will buy furniture at the price I would need to charge... It will reach the stage where no one will make or buy or sell anything."

With the budget deficit at 12 per cent in the 2015-16 fiscal year and currency markets facing severe distortions, Egypt reached a preliminary deal with the IMF in August for a $12 billion three-year loan to support an economic reform programme.

As part of those reforms, Egypt is widely expected to ditch its currency peg for a more flexible exchange rate mechanism.

Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer has said he would consider floating the pound once reserves hit $25 billion, but that target looks ambitious to some economists who say Egypt is burning through dollars as fast as it gets them.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the World Bank have poured about $3 billion into Egypt's coffers in recent months, but rising prices and periodic shortages of state-subsidised foods have forced the government to increase costly imports.

A dispute with its erstwhile financial backer, Saudi Arabia, saw a deal to supply Egypt with refined oil products suspended this month, adding $500 million a month to government spending.