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LONDON — Gold and oil will extend their gains on Monday, albeit modestly, when the markets open for the first time since Western powers launched a missile attack on Syria, but equities and bonds are unlikely to suffer big losses unless the West strikes again or Russia retaliates.

"The newsflow is actually better than what it looked like at one point during last week as the strike was surgical, followed by a pullback. Reports show a lot of care was taken not to hit Russian targets, which is a good sign and the market should take heart from that," said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier investment managers in London.

Gold has benefited in recent days as a safe-haven asset amid a US-China trade dispute and the escalating conflict in Syria, which also pushed oil above $70 per barrel due to concerns about a spike in Middle Eastern tensions.

World stocks wobbled last week but still ended with the best weekly gain in over a month, as investors await potentially healthy US company earnings.

Despite heightened geo-political risks, the impact on so-called safe-haven assets has been short-lived and modest — while the yen rose initially on fears of a Syrian strike, it ended near seven-week lows to the dollar last week.

On Saturday, US, French and British missile attacks struck at the heart of Syria's chemical weapons programme in retaliation for a suspected poison gas attack a week ago.

Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets, said gold was poised to gain on Monday but the rally would not be very steep: "The focus will be on the counter-reaction from Russia."

Gold, often used as a store of value in times of political and economic uncertainty, could rally towards $1,400 per ounce after two consecutive weeks of gains.

"If we do break above $1,365 that next week we would be very bullish," said Aslam.

Others were less convinced of the market's ability to gain much further ground.

"I think the strikes were well targeted, and as such gold market impact will be minimal as it will be hard to justify a major retaliation," said a trader at a leading bullion bank.

Tokyo will be the first major market to open on Monday and the yen will likely strengthen to the dollar, but not beyond 106.50, said Itsuo Toshima, market analyst at Toshima & Associates adding that he didn't expect stocks traders to take sharp moves tomorrow.

"The first attack was within expectations and was already priced in the market ... However, if there is second round of strikes, which is not in line with expectations. So that should prompt a sharp risk-off move in markets. Stocks will plunge, the yen and the oil prices will surge," he added.

Frank Benzimra, head of global markets for Asia Pacific at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking, also said stocks were set to plunge only in case of new strikes by Western powers.

In case of such an escalation, energy-related assets should outperform Asia markets, oil would rally further, the yen would spike and Japan's domestic defensive stocks would outperform international stocks.

"For the stress on Asia equity markets to be sustainable we would need to have oil prices spiking to such a level that fundamental concerns, i.e. higher inflation and risks on growth, return to the market," he said.

Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects said that despite Middle Eastern tensions and looming new US sanctions on Iran, she believed oil has outperformed most expectations this year and may have rallied too far too fast.

"We are likely to get a sell-off this week as the extent of the Syrian strikes have been muted and, in general, calmer nerves prevail in Washington," she said.

LONDON — Oil prices edged off highs last reached in late 2014 due to rising US stocks but remained well supported by mounting geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Also, shrinking global oil inventories and expectations of a supply cut extension by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) played a role.

Brent crude futures were at $71.84 a barrel at (13:15 GMT) on Thursday, down 22 cents from their last close. US WTI crude futures were down 12 cents at $66.70.

Both Brent and WTI on Wednesday hit their highest since late 2014 at $73.09 and $67.45 a barrel respectively after Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles over Riyadh and US President Donald Trump warned Russia of imminent military action in Syria.

On Thursday, OPEC said the global oil stocks surplus was close to evaporating due to healthy energy demand and its own supply cuts.

US shale oil output has been booming over the past year since OPEC reduced its own production in tandem with Russia to prop up global oil prices.

But as oil production collapsed in OPEC member Venezuela and is still facing hiccups in countries such as Libya and Angola, the oil exporters' group is still producing below its targets, meaning the world needs to use stocks to meet rising demand.

In its monthly report, OPEC said oil stocks in the developed world fell by 17.4 million barrels in February to 2.854 billion barrels, around 43 million barrels above the latest five-year average.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters in New Delhi the global oil glut has effectively shrunk by nine-tenths since the start of 2017.

"We have seen an accelerated shrinkage of stocks in storage from unparalleled highs of about 400 million barrels to about 43 million above the five-year average," Barkindo said.

OPEC, Russia and several other non-OPEC producers began to cut supply in January 2017. The pact runs until the end of the year and OPEC meets in Vienna in June to decide on its next course of action.

"There is growing confidence that the declaration of cooperation will be extended beyond 2018," Barkindo told Reuters. "Russia will continue to play a leading role."

Despite this, supplies remain ample and analysts said this would weigh on prices eventually.

Barclays said that geopolitical events could keep Brent prices elevated above $70 in April and May, but a downward correction was possible in the second half of the year.

US crude oil inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels to 428.64 million barrels, while US crude production last week hit a record 10.53 million barrels per day.

GENEVA — The World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Thursday said that it expects strong trade growth through this year and next but warned progress would be "undermined" if governments implement threatened protectionist measures. 

The WTO forecast 4.4 per cent growth in trade volume this year and a more moderate four per cent expansion in 2019.

But the body's director-general Roberto Azevedo cautioned that "this important progress could be quickly undermined if governments resort to restrictive trade policies, especially in a tit-for-tat process that could lead to an unmanageable escalation".

"A cycle of retaliation is the last thing the world economy needs," he added in a statement.

Last year saw the most robust rise in trade volume expansion since 2011, fuelling hope that the world economy was finally on a sustained path to recovery following the financial crisis. 

In its latest forecast, the WTO said risks "had appeared to be more balanced than at any time since the financial crisis", but noted that uncertainty was rising again.

 No war 'yet' 

Speaking to reporters, Azevedo noted that while some of the announced tariffs remain proposals for now, even the prospect of a further escalation had already affected global market confidence. 

Asked if he believed the world was currently in the midst of a trade war, the Brazilian-born economist said: "Technically, I would say no we are not there yet”.

"There are still a number of measures that have been announced but not implemented... Politically I think we might be seeing the beginning of that [a trade war] and that is exactly what I have been urging members to try to avoid," he said. 

US President Donald Trump's administration has announced tariffs on steel and aluminium and targeted China for an additional 25 per cent in punitive duties on nearly $50 billion in goods for its alleged theft of US intellectual property.

China has vowed to defend itself through a series of reciprocal measures. 

Azevedo reiterated his call for nations to try to resolve their disputes through the multilateral system, instead of via face-to-face stand-offs. 

"The pressing trade problems confronting WTO members [are] best tackled through collective action," he said. 

Azevedo underscored that if tensions cannot be eased and a full blown trade war breaks out, "the effects would be globalised, reaching far beyond those countries that are directly involved".

The world's poorest countries could end up being the hardest hit, he added. 

Kuwait City - Kuwait's national carrier halted flights to Beirut on Thursday citing security concerns, after an air safety watchdog warned of potential military strikes on Syria in the coming days.

Kuwait Airways said that it took the decision "on the basis of credible security warnings received from the Cypriot authorities regarding the danger of flying over Lebanon's airspace".

The changes would stand "until further notice", the airline said on Twitter.

The move came after the European Aviation Safety Agency alerted airlines on Tuesday of the possible launch of "air-to-ground and/or cruise missiles within the next 72 hours", urging them to take precautionary measures.

Other international carriers including Air France and Lebanon's Middle East Airlines have also modifed their flight plans.

US President Donald Trump warned Wednesday that "missiles will be coming" in response to an alleged chemical attack in Syria.

If the US action follows the pattern of a previous punitive strike on Syria last year, it will begin with a salvo of cruise missiles fired from American warships in the Mediterranean.

Russia's ambassador to Beirut warned any US missiles would be shot down "as well as the sources they were fired from", raising the stakes of a regional confrontation.

HONG KONG — International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde on Wednesday issued a stern warning to governments to avoid undermining global growth with protectionist trade policies.

In a less than thinly-veiled warning to US President Donald Trump, who has locked horns with China on trade, the head of the IMF said countries should open trade further by reforming their own domestic practices rather than putting up new barriers to trade.

She said it was a mistake to view trade deficits as a sign of unfair trade practices — as Trump has repeatedly claimed, most notably in the current dispute with China.

Trump last month imposed steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and announced pending tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods in retaliation for alleged theft of intellectual property. 

Since then, Washington and Beijing have escalated threats of new import duties, raising the real risk of an all-out trade war.

Governments “need to steer clear of protectionism in all its forms”, Lagarde urged.

“Remember: the multilateral trade system has transformed our world over the past generation. It helped reduce by half the proportion of the global population living in extreme poverty.”

In a speech previewing the issues to be discussed when world finance ministers and central bankers gather in Washington next week for the IMF and World Bank Spring meetings, Lagarde said free trade “has created millions of new jobs with higher wages”.

An ‘inexcusable’ failure 

“But that system of rules and shared responsibility is now in danger of being torn apart,” she warned. “This would be an inexcusable, collective policy failure.”

Lagarde stressed that experience showed protectionist “import restrictions hurt everyone, especially poorer consumers”, by making products more expensive.

But barriers “also prevent trade from playing its essential role in boosting productivity”, something the IMF has repeatedly said advanced economies need to improve in order to improve potential economic growth rates.

Governments should work to “reduce trade barriers and resolve disagreements without using exceptional measures”, and should directly help those facing upheaval, whether from trade or new technology, by improving investment in training and education.

Lagarde also dismissed the argument — made by Trump and his trade advisers — that the presence of a trade deficit is a sign of unfair trade practices.

In fact, “these bilateral imbalances are a snapshot of the division of labour across economies”, she said.

The IMF next week will release its updated World Economic Outlook with forecasts of global growth, but despite the “darker clouds looming”, Lagarde said the world economy was seeing an upswing and “we continue to be optimistic”.

The IMF in January forecast global growth of 3.9 per cent for this year and next, and she said advanced economies were growing above potential while China, India and Japan continued to see strong growth.

ABU DHABI — Abu Dhabi's state energy company on Tuesday said it had opened its first auction for exploration contracts, offering six major oil and gas blocks as it looks to expand output. 

Successful bidders will gain access to untapped reserves estimated to hold billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic metres of natural gas, Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company (ADNOC) said.

Home to more than 90 per cent of United Arab Emirates (UAE) oil, Abu Dhabi is auctioning off licenses in its blocks for the first time.

"The licensing strategy represents a major advance in how Abu Dhabi unlocks new opportunities and maximises value from its hydrocarbon resources," the statement said.

Those granted the licences will enter into agreements granting exploration rights and the opportunity to develop the discoveries if targets are achieved, the company said.

Bids will be accepted for the six blocks — four onshore and two offshore — until October. 

The UAE, OPEC's fourth largest crude producer and the eighth largest globally, pumps around 2.8 million barrels per day and sits on just under 100 billion barrels of reserves — almost as much as neighbouring Kuwait.

In the past few weeks, ADNOC has awarded several international oil companies long-term concession rights in offshore and onshore fields to boost output.

Abu Dhabi has begun to award new oil concessions as old ones expire.

It has already granted concessions to Exxon Mobil, Total, BP, Shell and China's CNPC, among others.

ADNOC aims to increase Abu Dhabi's oil production capacity from 3.2 million barrels per day to 3.5 million by the end of 2018.

LONDON — European shares rose in early deals on Monday, as hopes that a full blown trade war between the United States and China could be averted spread across markets.

The pan European STOXX 600 had risen 0.5 per cent by 08:05 GMT, after closing in the red on Friday when investors feared the trade dispute between the world's two biggest economy could turn for the worse.

"The chatter over the weekend appeared to suggest some optimism that some form of deal would likely be the probable outcome, though how long that could take to pan out remains a significant unknown, and as such further volatility seems likely", said CMC Markets' Michael Hewson.

The situation in Syria, after President Donald Trump warned of a "big price to pay" for dozens of people killed by poison gas in a rebel-held town, was not impacting confidence.

The fact that US futures were pointing to Wall Street opening in positive territory was supporting European bourses, analysts said. 

Financial stocks contributed the most to the rise with Deutsche Bank up 3.2 per cent after it named a new CEO who said tough decisions would have to be made and the structure of its investment bank reviewed.

Another top mover was Portuguese energy and utility group EDP, up 5.3 per cent after a report French utility Engie was examining a possible bid. 

Britain's Rolls-Royce rose 1.9 per cent after it agreed to sell its Germany-based diesel parts maker L'Orange to US-based engineering company Woodward Inc. for 700 million euros ($859 million), as part of a plan to simplify its business. 

Telecom Italia retreated 0.5 per cent after proxy adviser Glass Lewis recommended investors back a proposal by activist fund Elliott to replace six board members and shake up the way top shareholder Vivendi runs the phone group.

Fresh US sanctions on Russia had a strong impact on a number of corporations linked to allies of President Vladimir Putin. 

En+ Group, which manages the assets of tycoon Oleg Deripaska, was down over 20 per cent and said the sanctions were "highly likely" to materially affect its business and prospects in an adverse way. 

Shares in Swiss pump maker's shares Sulzer and Swiss technology group Oerlikon were sharply down, falling 8.5 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively after their majority holder Viktor Vekselberg appeared on a list of US-sanctioned individuals.

NEW YORK — Wall Street stocks finished sharply lower on Friday after escalating threats in the US-China trade spat deepened fears of an all-out trade war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down nearly 575 points, or 2.3 per cent, at 23,932.76 after sinking more than 3 per cent earlier.

The broad-based S&P 500 dropped 2.2 per cent to 2,604.47, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 2.3 per cent to 6,915.11.

Investors were unnerved by President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs on an additional $100 billion in Chinese imports as the US president hit out at China's "unfair retaliation" to a prior Trump announcement of $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods.

China's reply was also strident.

"If the US side disregards opposition from China and the international community and insists on carrying out unilateralism and trade protectionism, the Chinese side will take them on until the end at any cost," the Commerce Ministry said in a statement.

Losses were broad-based, with all 30 members of the Dow finishing negative.

"The market is getting more concerned about the possibility of a trade war between the US and China," said Tom Cahill, portfolio strategist at Ventura Wealth Management.

"The market does not like uncertainty and right now we have a lot of it."

US stocks were in the red throughout the session but losses deepened in the afternoon following an interview with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.

Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare said investors were disappointed by the lack of reassurances from Trump administration officials, including Mnuchin, who told CNBC that the administration hoped to negotiate but acknowledged that a trade war was a possibility.

The Mnuchin interview was a "reminder that things are moving in a contentious direction because there are no negotiations and no one is really backing down on either side on the implementation of tariffs", O'Hare said.

Fed chair Powell, meanwhile, signalled that the US central bank still plans to press ahead with additional interest rate hikes in 2018, a stance that also disappointed investors.

"The market might have been starting to contemplate that all the trade volatility might lead the Fed to be a little less aggressive with its policy, and at least for today, the Fed chairman didn't give any indication that that was going to be the case," O'Hare said.

LONDON — Global stocks shot higher on Thursday as investors judged recent trade war fears were overblown, dealers said.

In Europe, the French and German stock markets both climbed more than 2 per cent, while London rose 1.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, at the opening bell Wall Street added to gains made the previous day, with the Dow rising 0.4 per cent in the first minute of trading.

Tokyo led the gainers in Asia, climbing a solid 1.5 per cent as the more positive market sentiment reduced demand for the haven yen, pushing the currency down. Hong Kong and Shanghai were closed for holidays.

"Investors are expressing confidence that a solution will be found before a full-blown trade war erupts," said Craig Erlam, senior analyst at trading firm Oanda.

However, he also sounded a note of caution over the lingering market concerns.

"The reality is that a trade war remains a real possibility," warned Erlam.

"US President Donald Trump is looking to pick a fight with the world's second largest economy, a fight he believes is easy to win, and China is willing to go toe to toe with the United States — even if it means inflicting harm at home."

The more bullish outlook for stocks came on the heels of a see-saw session on Wall Street on Wednesday that saw equities rally impressively into the close.

Traders have been spooked by tit-for-tat accusations and measures between China and the United States that some fear could lead to a full-blown trade war between the world's top two economies.

China unveiled plans on Wednesday to hit major US exports in retaliation for US tariff plans detailed the day before.

"It's hard to see how anyone wins in this but investors currently, despite the declines we've seen, are expressing confidence that a solution will be found before a full blown trade war erupts," said Erlam.

The Dow whipsawed nearly 800 points between its session low and peak on Wednesday before finishing with a gain of one per cent.

Analysts said the catalyst for the turnaround was comments by recently appointed White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who suggested Trump's strident approach to China was a negotiating tactic to win concessions.

"I understand the stock market anxiety. I get that," Kudlow told Fox Business. "I think at the end of this whole process, the end of the rainbow, there's a pot of gold."

DAMASCUS — The Syrian pound has appreciated around 10 per cent against the US dollar in recent days, as rebel fighters quit their final stronghold of Eastern Ghouta on the edges of the capital.

The unofficial exchange rate in the capital was at 430 Syrian pounds per dollar on Wednesday, compared with 460 pounds the previous week.

When Syria's conflict first erupted in 2011, the currency was valued at 48 Syrian pounds per dollar but it has depreciated dramatically since then.

The pound hit its highest value in years on Monday morning, according to the Al Watan Syrian daily, reaching 405 pounds per dollar just as a new deal for Eastern Ghouta began to be implemented.

The official exchange rate is still at 436 pounds per dollar.

On Monday, rebels and civilians began evacuating the town of Douma, the final opposition-held pocket of the Ghouta enclave.

Rebel fighters had held Ghouta since 2012, and recapturing it will be seen as a victory for Syrian President Bashar Al Assad.

"The psychological factor has no doubt tipped the balance, especially in light of the most recent deal reached in Ghouta," Syrian economic analyst Firas Haddad told AFP.

The pull-outs came under a deal announced on Friday between regime backer Russia and rebel group Jaish Al Islam, which controls Douma. 

The first evacuations saw 1,100 people leave Douma for the opposition-held town of Jarabulus in northern Syria, and another 1,200 were bussed out the following day.