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IMF says Egypt economic outlook ‘favourable’

By - Jan 23,2018 - Last updated at Jan 23,2018

A man rides a bicycle as he carries breads on his head along a busy street near a poster of Egypt's President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi from the campaign titled Alashan Tabneeha in Arabic , which means (So You Can Build It), for the upcoming presidential election in Cairo, Egypt, on Monday (Reuters photo)

CAIRO — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared Egypt's economic outlook "favourable" on Tuesday after completing its second review of the country's reform programme.

The IMF had approved in November 2016 a $12-billion loan to Egypt, which has been shaken by political and economic turmoil since longtime president Hosni Mubarak was toppled in the 2011 revolt.

In order to obtain the IMF's approval for the three-year loan, Cairo has implemented a set of drastic reforms including the adoption of a value-added tax, energy subsidy cuts and floating the pound.

"The reforms that have been undertaken so far have been well-implemented and we are beginning to see the pay-off from these reforms," said Subir Lall, head of the IMF's mission for Egypt.

"We think that the reform programme and the reform momentum should remain in place," Lall told reporters in an online briefing.

The IMF disperses tranches of the loan to Egypt based on periodic reviews of the programme.

In December, it approved a third tranche worth $2 billion, bringing the total released to date to just over $6 billion.

In the report released on Tuesday, the IMF said Egypt's economy grew 4.2 per cent in the year to June 2017, up from 3.5 per cent the previous year.

Gross domestic product was expected to expand by 4.8 per cent in the current financial year and by 6 per cent in the medium term, it said.

Egypt's inflation rate has started to moderate thanks to tighter monetary policy since peaking in July at 35 per cent, after authorities implemented reforms sought by the IMF.

It is expected to fall to around 12 per cent by June, and to single digits 2019, the IMF said.

The pound's devaluation saw the Egyptian currency lose about half its value, a factor that also caused inflationary pressure.

The IMF report said "strengthening social protection will also be important to shield the most vulnerable."

 

"The social aspect of these reforms has made strong efforts to shield the most vulnerable from the cost of up-front macroeconomic stabilisation and those were unavoidable costs," said Lall. 

IMF raises global growth forecasts

US tax cuts to provide short-term boost

By - Jan 22,2018 - Last updated at Jan 22,2018

Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, attends a news conference on the world economic outlook during the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday (Reuters photo)

WASHINGTON — Global economies are recovering simultaneously and at a stronger than expected pace, and will get at least a short-term boost from the US tax cuts, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday.

In the latest update to the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO), nearly all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were revised upward compared to the October edition.

However, the fund warned that exuberant financial markets could be due for a reversal.

The global economy is now expected to grow 3.9 per cent this year and next, two-tenths higher than the previous estimate, and up from growth of 3.7 per cent in 2017.

Advanced economies are seeing solid, simultaneous growth, and the US tax reform passed in December will have a measurable effect, at least for a couple of years.

"The revision reflects increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved US tax policy changes," the IMF said.

120 nations see pickup 

 

"Some 120 economies, accounting for three-quarters of world GDP, have seen a pickup in growth in year-on-year terms in 2017, the broadest synchronised global growth upsurge since 2010."

The WEO upgraded its US Gross Domestic Product forecast by a surprising four-tenths of a point this year to 2.7 per cent, compared to the expected 2.3 per cent in 2017.

For 2019, the IMF increased its US growth forecast a whopping 0.6 points from October, to 2.5 per cent.

 

Corporate tax cuts are seen driving investment, which could add growth of 1.2 per cent to the US economy through 2020, while also contributing to faster expansion in US trading partners like Mexico, the fund said.

Yemen government announces budget after three-year hiatus

By - Jan 21,2018 - Last updated at Jan 21,2018

People are seen at a restaurant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Friday (Anadolu Agency photo)

ADEN — Yemen's cash-strapped government on Sunday released its first official budget since the Houthi rebels overran the capital Sanaa in 2014 and following a bailout from ally Saudi Arabia.

Prime Minister Ahmed Bin Dagher said spending in the 2018 budget is projected at 1.5 trillion Yemeni riyals ($3.9 billion), with revenues estimated at 978 billion riyals ($2.6 billion).

The Aden-based government projected a deficit of $1.3 billion, based on the official exchange rate of 380 riyals to the dollar — higher than the market rate of about 450 riyals to the dollar.

In a post on Facebook, the prime minister painted a devastating picture of the country's economy, saying that oil and gas production — the main source of revenue before the war — had ground to a halt and that $5 billion in foreign reserves and stocks of the local currency had been "looted" by rebels who maintain a separate central bank in Sanaa. 

Bin Dagher did not offer details on revenue sources for the budget but it comes on the heels of a bailout by Saudi Arabia, the main backer of the internationally recognised government. The prime minister vowed "optimal use" of Saudi Arabia's $2 billion deposit to the central bank, which has buoyed the local currency in recent days, and said the new "austerity budget" would nonetheless guarantee wages for civil servants and the military. 

Saudi Arabia leads a military coalition that intervened in Yemen in March 2015 with the stated aim of rolling back Houthi rebel gains and restoring the country's "legitimate" government to power.

More than one million civil servants lost their jobs in 2016, when President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi moved the central bank from rebel-held Sanaa to Aden.

For more than a year, the government has been unable to pay salaries and the riyal dropped sharply against the dollar, leaving Yemenis unable to afford food staples and bottled water.

The Yemen conflict has left more than three-quarters of the population in need of humanitarian aid and 8.4 million at risk of famine, according to the United Nations. 

Sterling tops $1.39, heads for longest winning streak since 2014

Sterling expected to reach around $1.47 by year-end

By - Jan 20,2018 - Last updated at Jan 20,2018

Wads of British Pound Sterling banknotes are stacked in piles at the GSA Austria (Money Service Austria) company’s headquarters in Vienna on July 22, 2013 (Reuters file photo)

LONDON — Sterling climbed above $1.39 on Thursday for the first time since Britain's vote to leave the European Union and was on track for a fifth consecutive week of gains against the US currency — its longest winning streak since mid-2014. 

The pound has been buoyed by a combination of broad dollar weakness and optimism that Britain will reach a favourable divorce deal with the EU and that the economy will continue to grow at a healthy clip — albeit more slowly that if there had been no Brexit vote.

Sterling has climbed more than 5 per cent against the dollar over the past two months, helped by Britain's success in late December in securing a deal to move exit talks on to discussions over a transition period and post-Brexit trade. 

The pound jumped to as high as $1.3942 in New York trading on Wednesday before easing back by the end of the day. On Thursday, it rebounded half a per cent to trade at $1.3903. 

Japanese bank MUFG says it sees sterling trading around $1.47 by the end of the year.

"We have a bullish view on the pound," said the bank's chief macro strategist in London, Derek Halpenny. 

"Once a transition period for Brexit is confirmed, that takes off the cliff-edge risk of March 29 [2019, the date Britain is due to officially leave the EU] and paves the way for two rate hikes from the BoE [Bank of England]," he added.

Sterling has in recent sessions been supported by a sell-off in the dollar and more positive noises from Europe over negotiations with Britain over the terms of its departure from the trading bloc. 

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday offered France £44.5 million ($62 million) to bolster security at French border controls, part of measures to deepen cooperation that she hopes will foster goodwill in Brexit talks.

With the improved outlook for those discussions, traders said sterling had been able to anchor itself again to the domestic story, where the economy is proving more resilient than expected.

"It seems the Brexit negotiations are starting to pan out. Some of the political uncertainties in the UK are starting to fade. It's turning into a bit of a momentum rally," said Martin Arnold, macro strategist at ETF Securities.

Against the euro, which has rallied in recent weeks, the pound was flat at 88.12 pence per euro. 

Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders said on Wednesday that British unemployment was likely to fall further than most economists expected this year, pushing pay growth higher.

 

While he stuck close to BoE language that any interest rate rises would be "limited and gradual", some analysts believe the bank will be forced to tighten monetary policy faster if inflation fails to fall as predicted.

Emirates throws Airbus A380 a lifeline with jumbo order

By - Jan 18,2018 - Last updated at Jan 18,2018

This photo taken on November 19, 2013, shows an Emirates Airline's Airbus A380 on display at the Dubai Airshow (AFP file photo)

PARIS — Emirates Airlines on Thursday said it has struck a $16 billion deal to buy 36 Airbus A380 superjumbos just days after the European manufacturer said it would have to halt production without new orders.

The company said it had placed firm orders for 20 of the double-decker aircraft with options for a further 16. Deliveries are scheduled to start in 2020.

Emirates is already the world's biggest customer for the A380 with 101 in its fleet and 41 more firm orders previously placed.

"This order will provide stability to the A380 production line," the airline's Chairman and CEO Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum said.

"We've made no secret of the fact that the A380 has been a success for Emirates," he said in a statement. 

"Our customers love it, and we've been able to deploy it on different missions across our network, giving us flexibility in terms of range and passenger mix."

The Dubai-based airline said that with the new order it will have commitments for a total of 178 A380s worth $60 billion.

The deal was expected to be signed during the Dubai Airshow in November but was delayed without any explanation amid reports of tough negotiations.

Instead, Emirates inked a deal to buy 40 Boeing Dreamliners for more than $15 billion.

Airbus' decision in 2007 to pursue the A380, capable of packing in 853 seats, was diametrically opposed to Boeing's bet on the Dreamliner, marketed as a more efficient plane that could be used for both medium and long-distance flights.

But the economics of the four-engine A380 have proved daunting, with airlines having to operate every flight at full capacity in order to make a profit.

 

 'It buys Airbus time' 

 

Airbus warned on Monday that it might have to end production of the A380, having booked no new orders for the plane in two years.

It said it regarded Emirates as the only airline with the capacity to place an order of the size required to keep production going.

"Quite honestly, if we can't work out a deal with Emirates there is no choice but to shut down the programme," Airbus sales director John Leahy said Monday.

The company said it needed to build at least six of the aircraft per year for the programme to remain viable.

On Thursday, Leahy seemed relieved that Airbus' strategy of staring down Emirates appeared to have paid off, saying the programme was now good to go on for at least another decade.

"This new order underscores Airbus' commitment to produce the A380 at least for another ten years. I'm personally convinced more orders will follow Emirates' example and that this great aircraft will be built well into the 2030s," Leahy said.

Airbus is hoping China will lead a revival in orders once demand for long-haul planes picks up, arguing that the plane is ideally suited for mass-market travel and for heavily congested airports.

Emirates operates a fleet of 269 wide-bodied aircraft and flies to 157 destinations.

Airbus said it has delivered 222 A380s to 13 airlines so far.

Stock market investors welcomed the news of the order, pushing Airbus shares more than 2 per cent higher on the Paris bourse in mid-session business.

Calling the deal "a relief for Airbus", independent commercial aviation expert John Strickland said it probably saved the A-380 programme.

"Without it, production would likely have been terminated," Strickland said.

 

"It is not a guarantee of financial success for the programme but buys Airbus time to go out and secure additional orders from other airlines," he said.

China to step up cryptocurrency crackdown

By - Jan 17,2018 - Last updated at Jan 17,2018

Beijing - China is preparing for a new crackdown on cryptocurrency, planning to stamp out remaining trading in the country, according to state media.

China will gradually clean up over-the-counter trading platforms, peer-to-peer networks where large exchanges occur and firms registered in the country which allow Chinese to trade overseas, the state-run Securities Journal said Tuesday.

The publication cited an anonymous source close to regulators tackling online finance risks.

The new plan follows China's crackdown on cryptocurrency trading last year, which saw Beijing shut down bitcoin exchanges and ban all initial coin offerings.

But alternative channels for trading cryptocurrencies have popped up, including on social networks like WeChat, QQ and Telegram.

Those online groups facilitating large-scale peer-to-peer trade appear likely to suffer greater scrutiny in the coming months.

The international value of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has plunged in recent days amid fears of a crackdown in Asia and concerns that many currencies' rapid rise in value last year could reflect an inflating bubble.

At one point on Wednesday, the price of bitcoin on some exchanges had tumbled more than 20 percent, falling below the $10,000 mark that the currency broke through in November of last year.

The market movements come just one month after the most valuable cryptocurrency bitcoin broke through the $20,000 mark in December.

 

US stocks return from holiday to set new records

By - Jan 16,2018 - Last updated at Jan 16,2018

Traders react at the closing bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, US, on November 30, 2017 (Reuters file photo)

LONDON — Wall Street returned from a long holiday weekend to set new records amid solid corporate earnings reports and optimism for profits in 2018 due to a US tax reform.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 0.8 per cent in initial trades to rise for the first time above the 26,000 mark. It later gave up some of those gains.

"American markets were shut yesterday as the US celebrated Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and they are making up for lost ground today," said market analyst David Madden at CMC Markets UK.

"The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have all reached new record highs today, although we have seen a pullback," he added.

Citigroup shares climbed 1.1 per cent as, while taking a $22 billion charge due to changes in tax rules that pushed it into a loss of $18.3 billion for the quarter.

Without the tax charge, earnings were higher than in the same period last year, and the bank said it should benefit from changes to the tax law going forward.

Eurozone stock markets rose on the coattails of Asia, while London slid as thanks to heavyweight energy and mining stocks.

London's FTSE 100 still flirted briefly with new all-time high, however, as sterling dropped on official data showing that UK annual inflation pulled back in December from a near six-year peak.

But by the afternoon it was trading down and closed 0.2 per cent lower.

The euro meanwhile came off a three-year high versus the dollar struck on Monday, while oil futures retreated also from their highest levels since 2015 that were reached at the start of the week.

That helped eurozone stocks advance, with the CAC 40 index in Paris adding 0.07 per cent and the DAX 30 in Frankfurt climbing 0.4 per cent.

The euro is "finally seeing some weakness after its remarkable bounce of late", said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG trading group. 

He noted also that "sterling's impressive rally over the past nine months has helped cool imported inflation" into the UK, in turn lessening the prospect of further rate tightening from the Bank of England. 

 

"Perhaps they won't have to raise rates this year after all, although one reading does not constitute a trend," added Beauchamp after UK annual inflation dipped to 3 per cent from 3.1 per cent.

Japan’s SoftBank Group soars on listing reports

By - Jan 15,2018 - Last updated at Jan 15,2018

SoftBank Corp. representative director, Jun Shimba, answers questions during a press briefing on SoftBank's new service in Tokyo on Monday (AFP photo)

TOKYO — Shares in Japan's SoftBank Group soared six per cent on Monday on reports it could list its mobile unit, raising up to $18 billion in one of the country's biggest public offerings.

In a statement, SoftBank Group insisted no decision had been made, but acknowledged the listing was an "option".

"We are always studying various capital strategy options," the company said.

"The listing of SoftBank Corp. shares is one such option, but no decision has been made to officially proceed with this course."

The Nikkei economic daily, which first reported the plan, said the listing could bring in 2 trillion yen ($18 billion), one of the largest initial public offerings ever for a Japanese company.

The report sent SoftBank shares up nearly 6 per cent at the market's open, though they later settled up 4 per cent.

The Nikkei said SoftBank hopes to apply to the Tokyo Stock Exchange in spring and begin trading on the bourse around autumn, offering around 30 per cent of the shares in its subsidiary up to investors.

It is hoping for an overseas debut at the same time, possibly in London, the daily added.

SoftBank Group has been aggressively investing in technology ventures under its flamboyant leader, Masayoshi Son.

In 2016, it announced the creation of its massive Vision Fund — a venture capital fund worth nearly $100 billion, set up with Saudi Arabia's government and other investors.

In December, SoftBank announced it was acquiring a large stake in the ridesharing giant Uber.

Sources said it was acquiring 15 per cent of the company in a deal totalling $7.7 billion.

The Nikkei said the listing plans would further consolidate SoftBank Group's status as an investment company and give its subsidiary greater autonomy.

 

The listing could rival the record 2.2 trillion yen that formerly state-run Nippon Telegraph and Telephone raised in 1987.

Dollar hits three-year low vs euro

Wall Street hits new highs

By - Jan 13,2018 - Last updated at Jan 13,2018

Traders work on the floor at the closing bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange in New York on Thursday (AFP photo)

NEW YORK — The US dollar fell to a more than three-year low against the euro on Friday, extending recent losses on expectations European Central Bank policymakers are preparing to reduce stimulus, while US stocks continued to rally and marked record closing highs.

Optimism about fourth-quarter earnings boosted stocks. Bank shares climbed following quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo. A global stock index registered an eighth straight week of gains.

The euro's rise weighed on the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rival currencies. The index was down 1 per cent, after slipping to a four-month low of 90.954.

For the year, the dollar index was down 1.28 per cent, its worst performance over a year's first nine trading days since 2010, according to Reuters data. 

"The latest ECB comments were a bit on the hawkish side, so that's giving more life to the euro," said Minh Trang, senior currency trader at Silicon Valley Bank in Santa Clara, California.

Sterling rocketed to its highest level against the dollar since the Brexit vote to leave the European Union after a report that the Netherlands and Spain were open to a deal for Britain to remain as close as possible to the trading bloc. Sterling was last trading at $1.3731, up 0.03 per cent.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both registered an eighth record closing high out of the first nine trading days of 2018, while the Dow boasted its sixth closing high of the year.

Data showing robust US retail sales drove investor optimism about economic growth, also boosting sentiment in the stock market.

"It seems like the economy is going OK, inflation is kind of nonexistent right now, wage growth is not an issue for most income statements, so what's not to like here?" said Stephen Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush Securities in San Francisco. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 228.46 points, or 0.89 per cent, to 25,803.19, the S&P 500 gained 18.68 points, or 0.67 per cent, to 2,786.24, and the Nasdaq Composite added 49.29 points, or 0.68 per cent, to 7,261.06.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.23 per cent, and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.66 per cent.

A robust US inflation report boosted Treasury yields.

The two-year yield, sensitive to traders' views on interest rates, rose to more than 2 per cent for the first time since the financial crisis.

In commodities, oil prices rose for a sixth day after Russia's oil minister said global crude supplies were "not balanced yet", alleviating market concerns about a wind-down of the OPEC-led deal to reduce production.

 

US crude oil rose 50 cents to settle at $64.30 a barrel, while Brent rose 61 cents to settle at $69.87.

Dollar still under pressure as China hits out at ‘fake news’

By - Jan 11,2018 - Last updated at Jan 11,2018

Pedestrians walk past a board displaying the top gainers on the Hang Seng Index at a bank in Hong Kong on Tuesday (AFP photo)

LONDON — The dollar came under fresh selling pressure on Thursday even after China hit back over a "fake news" report that it could slow or halt purchases of US Treasuries. 

The greenback had dived on Wednesday against most rivals as Bloomberg News reported that Chinese authorities reviewing foreign-exchange holdings had recommended the move.

Initially fruitful, the dollar's attempts to recoup the previous day's losses fizzled out by the European mid-afternoon, with the greenback lower against both the euro and sterling.

Earlier, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange denied the Bloomberg report, saying in a statement: "We think this story could be quoting a mistaken source or it could also be a piece of fake news."

The report however briefly sparked fears on Wednesday that a huge amount of foreign demand for dollars would dry up.

“China has reduced their purchase of US Treasuries was the news which crashed the prices of the US Treasuries and pushed the dollar index lower yesterday," noted analyst Naeem Aslam at trading firm ThinkMarkets.

"But the Chinese officials clearly labelled this as fake news and assured markets that China is only diversifying its options."

China has long invested heavily in US bonds as a way of controlling the value of its own yuan currency and Bloomberg News estimates it currently holds around $1.2 trillion in Treasuries, double what it owned 10 years ago.

"We do know that China is the largest buyer of the US Treasuries, and if there is any reduction in the Chinese appetite for the US Treasuries, it would have serious consequences for the global markets," cautioned Aslam.

Elsewhere on Thursday European stock markets, having opened steady, slipped as the session wore on and after London briefly touched another record high despite retail gloom.

The retail sector was hit by underwhelming Christmas trading updates from supermarket giant Tesco and clothing-to-food chain Marks & Spencer.

"Retail stocks in the UK have been smashed," noted Manulife Asset Management equities analyst Will Hamlyn.

"They are so out of favour at the moment partly due to Brexit, partly due to the weak Christmas season [and] partly due to expected share losses to online" competition.

Wall Street posted gains at the opening bell.

 

 Oil surge 

 

Oil prices meanwhile were mixed on Thursday amid falling US stockpiles, unrest in key producer Iran and hopes that Trump's tax cuts will boost demand.

In morning London deals, European benchmark Brent hit $69.62 per barrel — the highest level since May 2015, but then eased back to post losses.

Elsewhere, Asian equity markets mostly fell as this year's rally gave way to profit-taking in much of the region.

 

However, Hong Kong extended a record winning streak to 13 days thanks to inflows of cash from mainland investors.

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