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WASHINGTON — The world economy is slowing to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis, as the US-China trade war undercuts business confidence and investment, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
It warned that the outlook is beset by risks, and urged policymakers to work to find resolutions to trade disputes, since there are limited tools to respond to a new crisis.
"With a synchronised slowdown and uncertain recovery, the global outlook remains precarious," International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath said in her introduction to the latest forecasts.
The IMF for the past year has every three months cut projected growth for 2019 as trade conflicts worsened.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) it trimmed the estimate by another two-tenths, to 3 per cent. The report also lowered the 2020 forecast by a tenth to 3.4 per cent.
"At 3 per cent growth, there is no room for policy mistakes and an urgent need for policymakers to cooperatively deescalate trade and geopolitical tensions," Gopinath said.
In addition, the trade conflicts and a slowdown in auto sales worldwide means trade growth has slowed sharply, falling in the first half of the year to its weakest since 2012, with an estimated increase of just 1.1 per cent this year after a 3.6 per cent jump in 2018.

Running low on ammo

While the US economy also has been hit by uncertainty — largely created by President Donald Trump's trade offensive — the world's largest economy remains a bright spot on the global stage, the report said.
After upgrading its US outlook in July, the latest WEO reversed course, and cutting the US forecast this year to 2.4 per cent — still above trend, but two-tenths below the July forecast.
In 2020, the IMF projects US GDP to expand by 2.1 per cent, unchanged from the prior report.
"For the United States, trade related uncertainty has had negative effects on investment, but employment and consumption continue to be robust, buoyed also by policy stimulus," Gopinath said.
Major central banks have taken steps to soften the blow to growth by lowering interest rates, without which the downturn would have been worse, she said.
However, she cautioned that monetary policy "cannot be the only game in town" and governments, notably in countries like Germany, should take advantage of low rates to make investments to support growth.
"With central banks having to spend limited ammunition to offset policy mistakes, they may have little left when the economy is in a tougher spot," Gopinath warned.
The US-China trade war alone is estimated to shrink the world economy by 0.8 per cent in 2020, the IMF said.
The fund warned that risks to the outlook predominate, and the uncertainty around trade policy — which causes businesses to hold off on investments and undermines confidence — will take a larger chunk out of growth than the tariffs themselves.

 Slowing auto sales 

"To forestall such an outcome, policies should decisively aim at defusing trade tensions, reinvigorating multilateral cooperation, and providing timely support to economic activity where needed," the report said.
But trade is not the only reason for the global slowdown: The report notes that in China's economy, for example, growth is moderating as intended amid slowing domestic demand.
Other major economies like Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa are slowing this year due to "idiosyncratic reasons" but are expected to recover in 2020.
"A notable feature of the sluggish growth in 2019 is the sharp and geographically broad-based slowdown in manufacturing and global trade," the IMF said, which in addition to the higher tariffs and trade uncertainty is the result of the contracting auto industry.
That slowdown has had an impact in Germany, China and India, the report said.

ABU DHABI — President Vladimir Putin visited Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, seeking to attract over $1.3 billion worth of investments in Russia's economy.
Putin, who came to the United Arab Emirates a day after signing a key oil deal with Saudi Arabia in Riyadh, was greeted by Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
A dozen agreements worth more than $1.3 billion, notably in the energy, advanced technology and sectors, are expected to be sealed during the visit, according to the Russian sovereign wealth fund.
As Putin made his way to the presidential palace, jets painted the sky white, blue and red — the colours of the Russian flag — and ceremonial cannon salutes were fired.
The streets of Abu Dhabi were lined with Emirati and Russian flags, while road signs typically displaying warnings for motorists greeted Putin in Arabic and Russian.
"The United Arab Emirates welcomes the visit of the Russian president," read the signs.
"Among the Gulf countries, the UAE is the leader in terms of trade with Russia," Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov told the press a few days ahead of the visit.
In 2018, trade between the two countries had reached up to $1.7 billion.
"Relations with the Emirates are very advanced, and they are constantly improving," Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin told reporters in Riyadh on Monday.

STOCKHOLM — A trio of American economists on Monday won the Nobel Economics Prize for their work in the fight against poverty, including with new approaches in education and healthcare, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said.

Indian-born Abhijit Banerjee of the US, his French-American wife Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer of the US were honoured "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty", the jury said.

"This year's laureates have introduced a new approach to obtaining reliable answers about the best ways to fight global poverty," the jury said.

The three found efficient ways of combatting poverty by breaking down difficult issues into smaller, more manageable questions, which can then be answered through field experiments, the jury said.

"They have shown that these smaller, more precise, questions are often best answered via carefully designed experiments among the people who are most affected," it said.

"As a direct result of one of their studies, more than five million Indian children have benefitted from effective programmes of remedial tutoring in schools. Another example is the heavy subsidies for preventive healthcare that have been introduced in many countries," the jury said.

Duflo is only the second woman to win the Nobel Economics Prize in its 50-year existence, following Elinor Ostrom in 2009.

Duflo, 46, told the Nobel committee by video link the honour was "incredibly humbling".

"I didn't think it was possible to win the Nobel Prize in Economics before being significantly older than any of the three of us," she added.

Banerjee, born in 1961, and Duflo are both professors at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US, while Kremer, 54, is a professor at Harvard University.

Only Nobel not in will 

Unlike the other Nobels awarded since 1901, the Economics Prize was not created by the prizes' founder, philanthropist and dynamite inventor Alfred Nobel, in his 1895 will. It was devised in 1968 to mark the 300th anniversary of Sweden's central bank, and first awarded in 1969.

Each of the Nobels comes with a prize sum of nine million Swedish kronor ($914,000, 833,000 euros), to be shared if there is more than one winner in the discipline.

But unluckily for recent winners, the prize's value has lost around $185,000 in the past two years, due to the depreciation of the Swedish krona.

The trio will receive the prize from King Carl XVI Gustaf at a formal ceremony in Stockholm on December 10, the anniversary of the 1896 death of Alfred Nobel.

Last year, the prize went to William Nordhaus and Paul Romer of the US for constructing "green growth" models that show how innovation and climate policies can be integrated with economic growth.

MOSCOW — Russia will work with Saudi Arabia against any "attempt to destabilise" the oil market, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said in an interview broadcast on Sunday, on the eve of a visit to Riyadh.

Tensions in the region are high following attacks on oil installations in Saudi Arabia, which sent prices surging, and the seizure of tankers in the Gulf. 

"If anyone believes that acts such as the seizing of tankers or strikes against oil infrastructure could in any way affect the cooperation between Russia and our Arab friends... they are very wrong," Putin said.

"We will absolutely work with Saudi Arabia and our other partners and friends in the Arab world... to reduce to zero any attempt to destabilise the oil market," he said in the interview with Arabic-language news channels.

In recent years, non-member Russia has cooperated closely with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is led by Saudi Arabia. 

The group has sought to limit supply, leading to a rebound in prices after the collapse of 2014-2015, which badly hit the Russian economy. 

"Our goal is to stabilise the situation in the global hydrocarbon market," Putin said.

Last month, Saudi Arabia, the US and a number of European nations accused Iran of being behind the drone attacks on Saudi infrastructure. 

Tehran denied involvement in the attacks, which were claimed by Yemen's Houthi rebels.

Putin said Russia was ready to participate in an investigation into the incidents.

Moscow, which has "good relations with all the countries in the region" could also play a "positive role" in attempts to ease tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Putin said.

NEW YORK — Global stocks on rallied Friday as US-China trade negotiations yielded a partial deal, while the British pound surged for a second straight session on signs that London and Brussels could still avert a no-deal Brexit.

The US-China agreement, announced in the closing minutes of Friday's Wall Street session, halts new US tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect next week and includes a Chinese promise to ramp up purchases of American farm products.

Expectations of the deal boosted stocks all day, but major US indices retreated from their peaks in the final moments of the session, ending with gains of a bit more than one per cent.

Analysts said the stock market's pullback in the final moments likely reflected disappointment that the interim agreement did not go further, and left in place existing tariffs.

The announcement "sounds a little more limited than we were hoping for", said FTN Financial's Chris Low. "Nevertheless it is really good news."

The pact, characterised by US officials as the first phase in negotiations, capped a rollercoaster week for stocks, with the market retreating early in the week on doubts about the talks, but reversing course midweek as the signs from both sides became more conciliatory.

Beijing and Washington have been at loggerheads for more than a year, with US President Donald Trump emphasizing trade relations with China as a central tenet of his "America First" agenda.

"There was a lot of friction between the United States and China, now it's a love fest," Trump said. "It's beyond a trade deal."

Business groups praised the agreement, but alluded to the unresolved status of the broader trade conflict.

"Although this is a step in the right direction, the uncertainty continues," said David French, senior vice president at the National Retail Federation. 

"We urge both sides to stay at the negotiating table with the goal of lifting all tariffs and fundamentally resetting US-China trade relations."

Brexit deal? 

Earlier, European stocks also rallied, pushing higher on the positive developments on US-China and Brexit.

European officials were looking ahead to an EU leaders summit after an upbeat meeting on Thursday between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar revived hopes about a Brexit deal.

The British pound rallied after the European Commission announced the EU and Britain agreed to "intensify discussions over the coming days”.

"The Commission will take stock with the European Parliament and member states again on Monday," it added, to allow time to draw up the agenda of Thursday's EU summit.

The announcement also boosted the British pound.

David Cheetham at XTB said the latest developments may "be a pivotal turning point in negotiations" but more "clarity" was needed.

But Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com also seemed to question the wisdom of buying into the British currency with such abandon despite lacking all the facts.

"Traders are evidently happy to be buying the rumours and will be asking questions later," he said.

PARIS — Tyre maker Michelin said on Thursday it would close a French-based factory with 619 employees next year as competition from cheaper Asian manufacturers knocks its profit margin. 

Two weeks ago, the French company announced the closure of a factory in Germany with 858 employees by 2021, and last year said it would shutter a plant with 845 employees in Scotland.

Regarding the closure of its plant at La Roche-sur-Yon in western France, Michelin promised a "support plan" for affected employees, and said it would offer everyone a chance to remain in the company in France.

It would also seek out "a major public-private project" in a bid to relaunch the failing site.

Michelin said 74 people who work at a factory in nearby Maine-et-Loiret, manufacturing rubber for the site in La Roche-sur-Yon, will also be affected.

Michelin has been hit hard by the lacklustre performance of the auto industry. 

Its CEO Florent Menegaux said last month that a 70-million-euro ($77-million) investment had been unable to save the site at La Roche-sur-Yon.

He blamed "difficulties in the market for high-end heavy-duty tyres both in Europe and abroad", coupled with "increased competition".

By the end of last year, Michelin employed about 110,000 people in different countries, including 20,000 in France.

LONDON — Britain kicked off Wednesday the dismantling of Thomas Cook, with the sale of all 555 UK stores to a smaller rival of the collapsed holiday giant.

Household name Thomas Cook, which went bankrupt overnight last month, was the biggest holiday company in Britain with both a tour operator and airline division.

Travel agent Hays Travel, which is mostly based in northern England, announced in statement that it has acquired the branch portfolio from the official liquidator for an undisclosed sum.

Thomas Cook brought down the shutters late last month after it failed to secure a funding lifeline.

The official receiver added Wednesday that Hays has already recruited 421 former Thomas Cook staff.

Hays added in a separate release that it could potentially save up to 2,500 jobs — and would seek to reopen some shops as soon as Thursday.

And it also expects to create another 100 jobs at its headquarters in the city of Sunderland, northeastern England, as a result of the transaction.

The independent travel firm was formed 40 years ago by husband and wife team Irene and John Hays.

It has since expanded to 190 branches and employs 1,900 staff with annual sales of more than £1 billion ($1.2 billion, 1.1 billion euros).

"We are looking to employ as many Thomas Cook staff as possible and we are reaching out to them," said John Hays.

He also confirmed the Thomas Cook brand would disappear from the British high street and will be replaced by Hays.

"Thomas Cook was a much-loved brand employing talented people. We look forward to working with many of them," said the independent travel agent's founders in a statement.

"The agreement will see Hays Travel acquire a total of 555 stores around the UK, providing re-employment opportunities for a significant number of former employees of Thomas Cook's retail operations who were made redundant," the statement added.

Wednesday's announcement was welcomed by the British government and travel industry trade union the Transport Salaried Staffs Association.

And it offers hope to the 9,000 UK staff who were made unemployed overnight when the group collapsed in acrimony.

David Chapman, director of the Official Receiver, remarked that the sale "represents an important step in the liquidation process, as we seek to realise the company's assets".

Jim Tucker, partner at administrator KPMG, also added that the Hays deal "provides re-employment opportunities for a significant number of former Thomas Cook employees, and secures the future of retail sites up and down the UK high street".

The Official Liquidator, when asked by AFP about the outlook for the sale of Thomas Cook's remaining assets, declined to comment — but added they would be sold "in the best interests" of its creditors.

The collapsed company's notable assets include 100 aircraft at its airline division, and 200 hotels and hotels clubs that are based around the world.

UK airline Easyjet has hinted that it could be interested in some of Thomas Cook's air operations, as the low-cost carrier already serves some of its destinations.

Britain's government on Monday completed the country's biggest peacetime repatriation, returning 140,000 UK-based Thomas Cook customers stranded abroad by the company's bankruptcy.

In total, around 600,000 customers were left stranded following the collapse of the 178 year-old company less than three weeks ago, including around 140,000 who had been due to return to Germany.

The company's demise sparked 22,000 job losses worldwide.

The debt-plagued travel titan struggled against fierce online competition for years and blamed Brexit uncertainty for a drop in bookings.

It declared bankruptcy on September 23 after failing to secure fresh funds. Its biggest shareholder was China's Fosun Group.

SEOUL — Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday it expected operating profit to drop more than 50 per cent in the third quarter as it struggles with a long-running slump in the global chip market.

Operating profit for July to September was forecast to reach 7.7 trillion won ($6.4 billion), down 56.2 per cent from a year earlier, the world's largest maker of smartphones and memory chips said in a statement.

It marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which the South Korean tech company has recorded a profit drop in the face of falling semiconductor prices and weakened demand for its mobile devices.

Sales for the third quarter were expected to reach around 62 trillion won, down 5.3 per cent from the same period last year.

Samsung withholds net profit and sector-by-sector business performance until it releases its final earnings report, which is expected later this month.

Samsung shares closed up 2.4 per cent in Seoul as the operating profit forecast beat expectations.

The firm is the flagship subsidiary of the giant Samsung Group, by far the biggest of the family-controlled conglomerates that dominate business in the world's 11th-largest economy, and crucial to South Korea's economic health.

Analysts voiced optimism for the coming months, noting that falling inventory levels for semi-conductors — which account for more than half of Samsung's profit — will help stabilise chip prices after double-digit drops this year.

 'Competitor in crisis' 

The estimates for the third quarter showed a slight rise from the April to June period, which analysts attributed mainly to improvements in the mobile business.

The firm rolled out its flagship Note 10 devices that connect to superfast 5G network in August that analysts say have sold far better than its previous models to give Samsung a much-needed boost.

"The Note device is usually released in August or September and sells well until December, so I expect the demand to continue until the fourth quarter," said Tom Kang, research director at Counterpoint Research.

Samsung appealed to high-end users with the launch of its first foldable smartphone last month after faulty screens forced an embarrassing delay in April.

The premium smartphone market has grown fiercely competitive and overall sales have cooled as a lack of major innovation has caused people to wait longer before upgrading to new models.

The South Korean tech titan leads the global smartphone market with a 23 per cent share of the sector, trailed by Chinese competitors Huawei and Oppo, with Apple in fourth place, according to sales tracker IHS Markit.

Samsung also took advantage of the US trade ban against Huawei, "replacing a strong competitor in crisis" with its mid-to-low tier Galaxy A handsets, said Sujeong Lim, an analyst at Counterpoint Research.

Increased demand for Samsung's OLED display panels used in handsets by competitors — including Apple's new iPhone 11 — is also expected to help improve the company's quarterly profit.

Samsung has been caught up in a trade war between Japan and South Korea stemming from World War II disputes.

The row saw Tokyo impose tough restrictions on exports crucial to South Korean tech giants in July, and Samsung Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong — who called the situation a "crisis" — has visited Tokyo to secure materials.

LONDON — The British pound dived on Tuesday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly warned that a Brexit deal was "overwhelmingly unlikely", further stoking fears of a disorderly and costly departure from the EU.

Merkel told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that a deal was doomed to fail unless London agreed to keep British-run Northern Ireland that borders EU-member Ireland in the bloc's customs union, a Downing Street source said.

The host of next week's European summit, EU Council president Donald Tusk, in turn accused British Prime Minister Boris Johnson of trying to shift blame for the failure of the Brexit talks.

"Markets are having to focus on the various potential outcomes which are now imminent," Interactive Investor analyst Rebecca O'Keeffe told AFP.

"A deal looks very unlikely unless the EU blinks first."

'Greater chance of no-deal' 

She added: "For many, the word of the PM is government policy, hence the global market is moving towards pricing in an ever greater chance of a no-deal." 

Losses were exacerbated by official data showing that British productivity tumbled at its fastest rate in five years in the second quarter of 2019.

Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic, meanwhile, posted losses on growing investor doubts over chances of success in this week's China-US trade talks.

Losses for London stocks were limited thanks to the weak pound, which boosts multinationals earning in stronger currencies. 

Other European markets were nearly one per cent lower in the mid-afternoon, while on Wall Street the Dow Jones index was also down at the opening bell.

There had been a general feeling in recent weeks that a solution to the long-running US-China tariffs saga may be found, providing some much-needed support to equities in the face of worsening economic data.

HONG KONG — Most markets rose in Asia on Monday after a mixed US jobs report eased worries about a recession in the world's top economy but maintained expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) will press ahead with more interest rate cuts.

However, there was some nervousness after reports said China had cut back on the number of areas it is willing to discuss at this week's top-level trade talks with the US, rekindling concerns about the chances of any agreement between the two.

After a string of below-par data last week that highlighted the impact of Donald Trump's trade war on the key manufacturing and services sectors, Friday's much-anticipated non-farm payrolls figures showed unemployment at a 50-year low in September.

But the pace of job creation was the slowest in four months, wages fell and the manufacturing workforce also shrank for the second time this year.

All three main indexes on Wall Street rallied more than one per cent as dealers breathed a sigh of relief that the jobs figures did not miss badly, with most still expecting another Fed rate cut at its next meeting this month.

"As the US unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in 50 years, worries over US recession eased, but at the same time expectations for further rate cuts remain untouched," Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities, said in a commentary.

Most Asian markets followed the lead from New York.

Sydney rose 0.7 per cent and Singapore added 0.6 per cent with Seoul gaining 0.1 per cent, while Wellington jumped 0.8 per cent and Taipei put on 0.4 per cent. Mumbai and Bangkok also rose.

Tokyo closed 0.2 per cent down as the yen strengthened on bets for another Fed cut, while there were also losses in Manila and Jakarta. Hong Kong and Shanghai were closed for a public holiday.

In early trade, London fell 0.3 per cent, Paris lost 0.4 per cent and Frankfurt was off 0.2 per cent.

China's 'calculation' 

Focus turns this week to the resumption of high-level trade talks between China and the United States in Washington.

However, while there has been a broad expectation the two sides are coming together in some areas owing to their economies stuttering, reports said Beijing was looking to narrow the remit of any deal.

Bloomberg News reported that top negotiator Vice Premier Liu He had said he would not put on the table reforms to Chinese industrial policy or government subsidies, a key source of anger within the White House.

The story said Beijing had felt its hand had been strengthened by the beginning of impeachment proceedings against Trump as well as signs of slowing in the US manufacturing sector, which could hurt the president ahead of next year's election.

Chinese officials "are interpreting the impeachment discussion as a weakening of Trump's position, or certainly a distraction", said Jude Blanchette, at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. "Their calculation is that Trump needs a win" and could be open to some compromises, he added.

Stephen Innes, Asia-Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader, said the news came as a surprise to traders.

"With the US economy taking a decisive turn for the worse, China may be borrowing a page out of the Trump trade policy book, which sees China now turning the screws on the US," he noted. 

"However, at this stage, the market is still waiting for clarification, and if China walks down these innuendos."

Unease about the trade talks and long-running concerns about the global economy were keeping oil prices subdued, with both main contracts flat on Monday.