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Kuwait approves budget with deficit for sixth year

By - Jan 14,2020 - Last updated at Jan 14,2020

KUWAIT CITY — Kuwait's Cabinet on Tuesday approved the 2020/2021 budget projecting a huge deficit for the sixth year in a row due to low oil prices, the finance minister said.

The Gulf state whose revenues heavily rely on oil prices projected a shortfall of $25.3 billion for the fiscal year starting in April, up 15 per cent on the current year, Mariam Al Aqeel said.

"The budget deficit is the result of a drop in oil production and prices," the minister told a press conference in Kuwait City.

She said the government decided to keep spending unchanged from the current fiscal year at around $74 billion, of which 71 per cent are allocated to civil servants wages and public subsidies.

Revenues are projected at $48.7 billion, 6 per cent lower than the current year's estimates. More than 87 per cent of income comes from oil.

Since the crash in oil prices in mid-2014, Kuwait followed other oil-rich Gulf countries in raising fuel and electricity prices but could not impose taxes due to stiff opposition from parliament.

Aqeel said the government will draw down on the state reserve fund to meet the budget deficit as parliament has refused to pass legislation to allow the government to borrow.

The minister said the government will presss for parliament's approval of the public debt law because borrowing is cheaper than withdrawal from the sovereign wealth funds.

She said the government also wants parliament to approve a law for imposing selective taxes like other Gulf states, describing the law as necessary.

The emirate, with a native population of just 1.5 million, has a sovereign wealth fund worth more than $600 billion, providing a cushion for state finances. 

Around 3.3 million foreigners live and work in Kuwait.

Germany to invest 62b euros by 2030 to modernise rail network

Government hope commuters will opt for greener public transport options

By - Jan 14,2020 - Last updated at Jan 14,2020

German Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer (left) and German Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz address the media at the signing of an agreement on railway modernisations with German railway operator Deutsche Bahn in Berlin, Germany, on Tuesday (AFP photo)

BERLIN — The German government on Tuesday agreed to pump 62 billion euros into modernising its rail network system, as part of a wider plan to incite commuters to opt for greener public transport options.

"We've just signed the most important programme of modernisation ever in Germany," said Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer, adding that "this is the decade for railway". 

Besides the massive sum stumped up by the state, equivalent to $69 billion, German rail operator Deutsche Bahn will also plow an additional 24 billion euros into the renewal programme.

The investments will go towards "replacing obsolete installations", improving access to disabled passengers as well as renovating rail bridges, said Scheuer.

Deutsche Bahn chief Richard Lutz also vowed to improve punctuality of trains — a key turn-off for commuters, even though he also called for patience in view of the disruptions that rail upgrading will undoubtedly bring.

Getting more people to switch to trains instead of the more polluting cars or planes is a central plank of a government climate package aimed at helping Germany lower its emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

As part of the package, train fares are going down while air travel prices are set to rise with higher taxes to be imposed.

Export power Germany has for years been under pressure to use its huge budget surpluses to loosen the purse strings and invest in crumbling infrastructure.

Batting away the criticism, Germany has in recent months pointed to the ambitious environmental plan to underline the massive outgoings it has pledged for the coming decade.

After two blistering summers and thousands of youths joining school strikes week after week, climate change has shot to the top of the political agenda. 

In its battle to cut emissions, car-mad Germany has lagged badly behind in the transport sector, where state-coddled auto giants VW, Daimler and BMW have long focused on gas-guzzling SUVs over hybrid or zero-emission cars.

Stock markets trade sideways pending China-US pact

Sterling sagged, driven by an expected cut to main interest rate

By - Jan 13,2020 - Last updated at Jan 13,2020

Traders work during the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, on Monday, on Wall Street in New York City (AFP photo)

LONDON — World stock markets gave a mixed picture on Monday as investor attention turned to the planned signing of a China-US trade pact, with Wall Street firmer and European markets mostly retrenching.

London was steady, helped by a weaker pound which boosts share prices of multinationals that earn in dollars.

Sterling sagged as Bank of England policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe hinted at a potential vote in favour of a January cut to the central bank's main interest rate.

Stoking rate-cut speculation, official data showed the UK economy shrank 0.3 per cent in November, as Brexit and political uncertainty contributed to slashing manufacturing output.

But despite some adjustments to the downside, underlying sentiment was "positive as traders are looking ahead to the signing of the first phase of the US-China trade deal on Wednesday", CMC Markets analyst David Madden said.

The picture was brighter in Asia with Hong Kong rallying more than 1 per cent and Shanghai up 0.8 per cent.

While some of the optimism that characterised the end of 2019 is making a cautious return to trading floors, dealers were left a little disappointed by a below-par jobs report out of Washington on Friday which pushed the main US indices into the red.

But on Monday, Wall Street mildly rebounded in early trading as analysts agreed that while the data missed expectations, it did suggest that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain interest rates at low levels for some time to come, with some tipping the next move could be another cut.

 

 Pen to paper 

 

Focus this week is on Washington, where China and the United States will finally put pen to paper on their much-vaunted "phase one" trade deal, which has lowered tensions between the economic superpowers and boosted hopes for the global economy.

While there are not expected to be any major announcements at the signing, investors will be looking for signs of progress on the next part of negotiations for a wider agreement.

"Provided the deal inks a commitment from China to increase agricultural products and outlines a dependable enforcement mechanism, the market will go merrily along the way," said AxiTrader's Stephen Innes.

"Traders are probably not too concerned about a currency pact as China should hold the line on any weakness in the yuan as we roll forward to negotiating phase two."

MI5 dismisses UK-US relationship fears over Huawei — FT

British, US officials scheduled to meet on Monday

By - Jan 13,2020 - Last updated at Jan 13,2020

LONDON — The head of Britain's MI5 security service has dismissed suggestions UK-US intelligence sharing could be damaged if Chinese telecoms giant Huawei develops Britain's 5G network, The Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under intense pressure from US President Donald Trump to prevent Huawei from playing a role in building Britain's 5G telecoms network on grounds of security.

Asked in an interview with the FT if the intelligence-sharing relationship could be harmed, MI5 Director General Andrew Parker said: "I've no reason today to think that.

"Perhaps the thing that needs more focus and more discussion is how do we get to a future where there's a wider range of competition... than defaulting to a yes or no about Chinese technology," added Parker, who is standing down in April.

Responding to the interview, Johnson's spokesman said: "When a decision has been made we will provide an update to parliament. 

"We have a close and longstanding security and intelligence sharing relationship with the US and that will continue." 

The spokesman confirmed that British and US "national security officials" were holding a meeting on Monday in London following a report that the talks were a last-ditch bid by Washington to stop Huawei playing a role.

Fifth-generation (5G) mobile communications are the next milestone in the digital revolution, bringing near-instantaneous connectivity and vast data capacity.

They will enable the widespread adoption of futuristic technologies such as artificial intelligence and automated cars and factories — advances Beijing is desperate to lead.

Huawei's status as a major world supplier of the backbone equipment for telecoms systems gives China an inside track — but it has also attracted suspicions.

Various countries have raised security concerns about Huawei technology, with the United States and Australia barring the firm from participating in their 5G networks and others hesitating to let it in.

UK economy stalls, as Bank of England eyes rate cut

By - Jan 13,2020 - Last updated at Jan 13,2020

An aerial view of London’s Canary Wharf financial district and the River Thames, taken from a light aircraft flying over London on August 01, 2017 (AFP file photo)

LONDON — Britain's economy has stalled, official data showed on Monday, as Brexit and political uncertainty contributed to slashing manufacturing output, heaping pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates.

Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.3 per cent in November, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement. It grew only 0.1 per cent in the three months to the end of November, the ONS added.

Manufacturing, meanwhile, slumped 1.7 per cent in November.

Speaking ahead of the data a Bank of England policymaker, Gertjan Vlieghe, hinted at a potential vote in favour of a January cut to the BoE's main interest rate, weighing on the pound on Monday.

It followed comments Friday by fellow policymaker Silvana Tenreyro, who said she could support a rate cut from the current 0.75-per cent level, if the economy did not strengthen. 

On Thursday, the bank's outgoing governor, Mark Carney, said the monetary policy committee was looking at the merits of near-term stimulus.

As for the latest GDP data, "a poor performance in November was always on the cards given that the uncertainties facing the economy were at a peak with the general election looming and doubts over what would happen on the Brexit front after it had been delayed again from 31 October", noted Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to financial researchers EY ITEM Club. 

"It is clear that businesses were cautious in their behaviour while it also appears that consumers were reluctant to spend."

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives convincingly won a general election in December that has broken the deadlock over the UK's departure from the European Union.

Britain's parliament last week finally approved Brexit, ending years of arguments that toppled two UK governments.

"We expect the economy to get a lift in the early months of 2020 from a more settled domestic political environment following the Conservatives substantial win... and an easing of near-term Brexit uncertainties as the UK leaves the EU with Johnson's deal on 31 January," said Archer.

Jack Ma, Grab eye opportunities in Singapore digital bank battle

By - Jan 12,2020 - Last updated at Jan 12,2020

This illustration photo taken on Thursday shows banking and purchasing apps on a smartphone in Singapore (AFP photo)

SINGAPORE — Singapore is opening up its banking industry to digital lenders in a reform that could shake up the sector across southeast Asia, with Chinese billionaire Jack Ma and ride-hailer Grab among those seeking licences.

Traditional banks are being challenged by a new generation of online-only competitors that can offer better savings and borrowing rates, as they do not need to spend money on overheads such as physical branches.

The introduction of digital lenders into the Singaporean market heralds the biggest liberalisation of the financial hub’s banking sector for two decades, and follows similar moves in the United States, Britain, Japan and Hong Kong, among others.

With most adults in the city already having access to financial services, firms awarded licences are likely to use the city-state as a gateway to the wider region, where many consumers still lack bank accounts.

“It’s a total reconfiguration of the terrain — we’re talking about radical changes,” Lawrence Loh, a professor at the National University of Singapore Business School, told AFP.

“Singapore is the launchpad for Southeast Asia.”

An eclectic group of 21 applicants are vying for five digital banking licences, Singapore’s central bank and financial regulator said this month.

They range from Alibaba founder Ma’s online platform Ant Financial, as it ramps up efforts to expand outside China, to a consortium that includes southeast Asian ride-hailing behemoth Grab and the region’s biggest telecom player, Singtel.

Other bidders are Asia’s biggest massage chair maker, V3 Group, and an alliance featuring computer gaming firm Razer and a supermarket chain operator.

 

‘Challenging old models’ 

 

Two of the licences will be for full banking operations, allowing holders to take deposits from consumers, while three will be for “wholesale” banking — which limits a lender to mostly dealing with small and medium-sized enterprises.

The winners will be announced in June, with operations starting in 2021, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said.

Observers say the overhaul is unlikely to spark immediate, dramatic changes in Singapore itself — where traditional banks such as DBS and UOB have already introduced digital services.

But the future impact could be massive if the new online lenders expand across a region of more than 600 million people, which is home to booming economies and where many are getting access to the internet for the first time via smartphones.

The opportunities appear huge — nearly a third of people in southeast Asia still do not have bank accounts, according to a report by Google, Singapore investment firm Temasek and business consultancy Bain & Company.

Another 98 million individuals own bank accounts but have insufficient access to financial services, while millions of small and medium-size businesses are in need of funding, the report said.

It projected digital lending in the region would rise five-fold to $110 billion by 2025.

The rollout worldwide of ultra-fast, 5G smartphone infrastructure over the next five years is also expected to accelerate the digital transformation, said Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit.

“This is fundamentally challenging the old business model of retail banks, particularly in competing for the business of younger generations,” he told AFP.

There could be difficulties in expanding across a region where some governments have traditionally sought to shield domestic banks from foreign rivals.

But analysts say regulators have gradually been removing barriers to competition, while Loh from NUS saw a bright future for digital lending, saying: “People are very quick to adapt.”

“E-commerce, online supermarkets, food delivery — they are all done online.”

Stocks sag as US job creation disappoints, Boeing sinks

London, Frankfurt and Paris stocks also fell

By - Jan 11,2020 - Last updated at Jan 11,2020

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday in New York City (AFP photo)

NEW YORK — Global stocks mostly drifted lower on Friday as investor appetite waned at the week’s end, US job creation disappointed and damaging new revelations weighed on Boeing.

Asian markets notched some gains for the day, however, as geopolitical tensions eased and a US-China trade deal increasingly looked like a done deal.

The US economy generated 145,000 new jobs in December, shy of a consensus forecast, while wage growth also disappointed, according to official figures released on Friday.

Meanwhile, newly released e-mails showed employees at Boeing — the largest member of New York’s benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average — mocking aviation regulators and the design of 737 MAX jets, which have been grounded after fatal crashes.

“It’s not that we’re seeing a big selloff as much as we’re seeing a lack of buyers heading into the weekend after some obvious geopolitical turmoil last weekend,” JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told AFP.

London, Frankfurt and Paris also fell. Earlier, most Asian stock markets closed higher but investors struggled to maintain a rally triggered by easing US-Iran tensions the previous day.

The toning down of rhetoric from US President Donald Trump and Tehran following an Iranian missile attack on US positions in Iraq — in retaliation for the US killing of a top Iranian commander — soothed concerns about a possible conflict in the Middle East and lit a fire under global equities on Thursday.

Looking ahead to next week, China and the United States put pen to paper on their mini trade deal.

Oil prices lost ground. There appeared to be little market reaction to claims by Canada that Iran shot down an airliner in Tehran this week, killing 176 people.

Equities rally, oil steadies as US-Iran tensions appear to ease

Feel good factor likely to last — Madden

By - Jan 09,2020 - Last updated at Jan 09,2020

People wait to cross a street in front of a stock indicator displaying share prices of the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, on Thursday (AFP photo)

LONDON — Stocks rallied, the dollar jumped and oil prices steadied on Thursday as traders saw an easing of tensions between the United States and Iran that weighed on haven investments such as gold and the yen.

"Stock markets are strong... as US-Iran tensions have faded," noted David Madden, analyst at CMC Markets UK.

"The strong finish in New York last night prompted buying in Asia overnight, so now the bullish sentiment has reached Europe.

"The US and Iran are still at odds with each other, but as long as a conflict doesn't seem to be on the horizon, the feel good factor is likely to last," Madden added.

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday pulled back from the brink of war with Iran, saying Tehran appeared to be "standing down" after firing missiles — without causing casualties — at US troops based in Iraq.

The comments cooled what threatened to become an uncontrolled boiling over of tensions after Trump ordered the killing last Friday of a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani.

Oil prices, which spiked briefly to four-month highs on Wednesday soon after the Iranian attack, dropped back below their start point on the softer tone from both sides.

They managed to avoid further losses on Thursday, trading virtually unchanged compared with prices late in New York on Wednesday. 

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq hit another record high on Wednesday while the Dow and S&P 500 indices enjoyed big gains.

The positive mood continued into Asia. Tokyo and Hong Kong rallied around two per cent and Shanghai ended with a gain of 0.9 per cent.

Frankfurt took the lead in Europe, jumping 1.3 per cent in midday deals.

The rush to riskier investments saw gold, seen as a haven in times of unrest, sink more than 1 per cent, having broken $1,600 per ounce for the first time in seven years.

Assuming Iran-US tensions continue to simmer rather than boil, markets are likely to refocus on the global growth outlook and on trade, with the interim US-China trade deal expected to be signed on 15 January," said National Australia Bank's Tapas Strickland.

The lowering of tensions will allow traders to turn their attention to the release Friday of US jobs data, which will provide the latest snapshot of the world's number one economy, with recent figures indicating it remains robust.

Also in focus is the upcoming earnings season, which kicks off this month.

In London meanwhile, the pound slid around half-a-per cent versus the dollar and euro after Bank of England governor Mark Carney said Britain's economic recovery was "not assured" despite a drop in Brexit uncertainties.

Sun shining after economy’s difficult year — WBE

By - Jan 09,2020 - Last updated at Jan 09,2020

WASHINGTON — The sun has come out for the global economy, as trade tensions appear to be receding. 

But whether that leads to a resurgence in investment that can boost growth remains to be seen, a World Bank economist (WBE) told AFP.

Ayhan Kose, who oversees the World Bank's twice-yearly deep dive into the global economy, said the slight acceleration in world growth expected this year but it is not fast enough and the recovery is fragile.

In an interview with AFP, he explained the main findings and his main concerns:

 

You've cut GDP forecasts from June. Why is this good news? 

 

"I think it's fair to say that 2019 was an extremely difficult year for the global economy. Growth last year was the lowest since global financial crisis and trade growth was at the lowest level since the global financial crisis as well. So the good news for 2020, we expect global growth to pick up, a marginal pickup from 2.4 to 2.5 [per cent]."

"We hope it is an inflection point. For the three years in a row we saw weaker growth... trade-related tensions and elevated policy uncertainty [that] overshadowed activity, and basically you saw this sustained slowdown in trade, in manufacturing, industrial production, and more importantly in investment. Now the hope is that these trade tensions are going to be reduced... and then you will see you know confidence coming back."

"We have this change of tone in the context of trade and that is a very positive development."

 

What are your main concerns about the outlook? 

 

"One day of sunshine does not make the summer, so we need to see and analyse incoming data to be convinced about this fragile recovery we are projecting."

"It's not just the trade tensions' impact on confidence but the bigger impact on investment. And this investment slowdown has an impact on what we call potential growth, economies' ability to generate growth. So, there is some permanent impact."

"This debt buildup since the crisis has been the largest, the widest and then, of course, fastest build up for emerging market developing economies and we need to be mindful of what will happen if growth remains weak and a sudden increase in interest rates or spreads will trigger challenges for emerging market economies."

"We shouldn't lose sight of this important issue because at the end the root cause of crisis is always about debt."

"These countries are definitely less well prepared, relative to where they were."

 

Will US tensions with Iran alter the outlook? 

 

"I think this recent increase in geopolitical tensions is a cause of concern... However, when you look at the market reaction so far, market reaction has been muted."

"We monitor developments in the region very carefully, because these geopolitical tensions could have adverse impacts on activity."

British Airways-owner switches pilot as CEO quits

IAG has since expanded to include Aer Lingus, Level and Vueling

By - Jan 09,2020 - Last updated at Jan 09,2020

Longtime CEO of British Airways’ parent company Willie Walsh is stepping down (AFP photo)

LONDON — Global airline titan IAG on Thursday said its Chief Executive Willie Walsh had quit, after a long stint that saw him oversee the group's creation and rapid expansion, and would be replaced by Luis Gallego, head of Spanish division Iberia.

Walsh stands down on March 26 ahead of retirement, the owner of British Airways (BA) said in a statement.

The announcement brings down the curtain on Walsh's 15-year career with BA and IAG. Starting as BA chief executive, he went on to oversee the 2011 merger of British Airways and Iberia.

IAG has since expanded to include Aer Lingus, Level and Vueling.

The Irishman also spearheaded a cost-cutting drive to compete with budget airlines, despite criticism from some quarters that this cheapened the brand of BA — which once called itself the world's favourite airline.

Walsh, 58, was originally a pilot at Ireland's Aer Lingus but rose to become chief executive, before taking up the same role at BA in 2005.

 

'Unique' leadership 

 

"Willie has led the merger and successful integration of British Airways and Iberia," IAG Chairman Antonio Vazquez said in Thursday's statement.

"Under Willie's leadership IAG has become one of the leading global airline groups."

But British Airways suffered major disruption in September when for the first time in its 100-year history pilots employed by the airline went on strike in a long-running pay dispute.

"It has been a privilege to have been instrumental in the creation and development of IAG," Walsh said in the statement.

"I have had the pleasure of working with many exceptional people over the past 15 years at British Airways and at IAG.

"Luis has been a core member of the team and has shown true leadership over the years and I have no doubt he will be a great CEO of IAG," Walsh added.

In London midday trading, IAG shares gained 1 per cent to 624.8 pence on London's benchmark FTSE 100 index, which was up half-a-percentage point overall.

 

 'Difficult times' 

 

"Willie Walsh leaving BA has been very well telegraphed so the modest rise in IAG shares probably better reflects the overall market mood," said London Capital Group analyst Jasper Lawler.

"Iberia has been very much an equal partner in the group with BA in recent years so it makes sense that the Iberia chief Luis Gallego takes the reins."

Lawler added that Walsh had navigated other "difficult times, including fuel prices spikes and cut-throat competition from budget airlines".

Iberia has yet to announce Gallego's replacement.

"It is a huge honour to lead this great company. It is an exciting time at IAG and I am confident that we can build on the strong foundations created by Willie," Gallego said.

As Iberia chief since 2013, Gallego managed to return the airline to profitability after years of losses. He began his professional career in the Spanish Air Force before joining the commercial sector.

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