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German business confidence bucks shutdown impact

By - Feb 22,2021 - Last updated at Feb 22,2021

BERLIN — German business confidence improved in February, a key survey showed on Monday, as the robust industrial sector of Europe's top economy bears up despite the impact of coronavirus restrictions.

The Ifo institute's monthly confidence barometer, based on a survey of 9,000 companies, climbed to 92.4 points from 90.3 points in January, when the index slipped as tougher measures to fight the pandemic were introduced. 

Analysts surveyed by Factset had expected a smaller increase of 0.4 points.

"The German economy is showing its resilience despite the lockdown thanks to the strong industrial economy," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

The manufacturing sector recorded its highest score since November 2018, surging to 16.1 points from 9.1 points last month.

The mood in the services and retail sectors also brightened, inching up to readings of minus 2.2 points and minus 14.6 points respectively.

Ifo said managers were upbeat about their current situation, rising to 90.6 from 89.2 points last month, while the expectations sub-index jumped to 94.2 from 91.5.

Germany this month extended orders for bars, restaurants, leisure facilities and non-essential shops to stay closed until at least March 7 while allowing schools to partially reopen.

Crucially for production, factories have kept up output during the second wave of the pandemic and are seeing strong demand from China in particular.

But it remains unclear when other businesses will be able to resume operations.

"It's a nice surprise," said LBBW analyst Jens-Oliver Niklash of the closely watched indicator. "But there won't be a quick and full economic recovery without the prospect of a reopening." 

After dropping sharply in January, the number of new infections has plateaued in February in Germany amid serious concerns about highly contagious virus variants.

Germany has recorded nearly 2.4 million COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic, and almost 68,000 deaths.

Gross domestic product shrank by five per cent in 2020, its worst contraction since the financial crisis of 2009, due to the impact of the pandemic. 

The government has forecast a 4.4-per cent rebound this year but the uncertain future of the outbreak could force Berlin to revise the estimate downward.

Shares in Brazil's Petrobras plunge 19%

By - Feb 22,2021 - Last updated at Feb 22,2021

SAO PAULO — Shares in Brazilian state oil company Petrobras plunged on Monday after President Jair Bolsonaro changed the company's chief executive, fueling fears he will try to block further energy price hikes as he eyes reelection.

The company's ordinary and preferential shares both dived by more than 19 per cent shortly after opening on the Sao Paulo stock exchange, which was pulled down more than five per cent overall.

Bolsonaro on Friday appointed army reserve general Joaquim Silva e Luna as president of Petrobras, shortly after saying that "people can't be surprised" by the firm's price increases.

Petrobras has increased fuel prices four times so far in 2021, a cumulative rise of nearly 35 per cent, as global oil prices have recovered to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels.

"The government has clearly showed interference in Petrobras, because Bolsonaro is openly against the system of floating fuel prices," said economist Alex Agostini of credit rating firm Austin Rating.

"It's a clear signal he's going to intervene on prices. And we know when that's been done in the past under [former president] Dilma Rousseff, it led to very big losses for Petrobras," he said.

Shares in state electricity company Eletrobras were down eight per cent amid fears the far-right president would also target electricity prices as he gears up his bid to win re-election in 2022.

The Brazilian real fell more than 2.5 per cent against the dollar.

UK fintechs find friendly business environment in Lithuania

By - Feb 21,2021 - Last updated at Feb 23,2021

Rockit CEO Sarune Smalakyte speaks during an interview at the offices of the Rockit workspace for FinTech founders in Vilnius on February 12 (AFP photo)

VILNIUS — Thanks in part to Brexit, Lithuania is becoming a fintech hub as a growing number of UK-linked digital financial companies are getting licences there so they can continue to operate in the European Union.

The Baltic eurozone state with a population about a third the size of London is now leading the EU in fintech with over 230 companies, according to the Invest Lithuania government agency.

Some two dozen have links to Britain.

One of the first to come after the 2016 Brexit referendum was London-based Revolut bank.

"Lithuania is currently a hub for our European operations after Brexit," Virgilijus Mirkes, CEO of Revolut Bank in Lithuania, said.

"We opened our Vilnius office in 2017 after considering the fintech-friendly business environment," he said, pointing to a speedy licencing process and good local talent.

Invest Lithuania estimates that the sector employs more than 4,000 people in the country — an increase of more than 18 per cent in the past year.

"During the Brexit transition period, fintech companies began to search for an alternative EU harbour and thus Lithuania has become one of their primary options," said Jekaterina Govina, a senior official in charge of supervision at Lithuania's central bank.

 

'Continue to scale' 

 

Lithuania says it can process licence applications in as little as three months, more quickly than anyone else in the EU.

The central bank has granted a total of 118 fintech licences allowing companies to operate anywhere in the EU — far higher than Germany with 77 licences and France with 76, according to a report from Invest Lithuania.

Britain is still first by far with 610 licences.

Lithuania's central bank has also set up a "regulatory sandbox" — a framework to allow fintech companies to test out innovations.

"That was a lighthouse for companies searching for a cure for Brexit," Govina said.

While the capital Vilnius does not offer the big city attractions of London and getting there is tricky at the moment because of coronavirus restrictions, internet speeds in Lithuania are good and it has a tech-savvy workforce.

Revolut employs some 200 people in the country, including in product development and customer support, and Mirkes said the company would "continue to scale [up] our operations here".

Revolut started its operations in Vilnius in a gleaming glass-fronted office hub called Rockit, which is funded by Swedbank and provides workspace and industry events for some 30 member companies.

"Our hub helps to create a fintech community where foreign companies can easily find local partners," Rockit CEO Sarune Smalakyte told AFP during a recent visit to the space.

 

Need for 

firmer approach 

 

But the push into fintech also comes with risks.

Sergejus Muravjovas, CEO of Transparency International Lithuania, said "the ambition to become a fintech centre comes with a responsibility to take money laundering prevention to a new level.”

"There is a need for a firmer and more data-driven approach from monitoring the institutions involved," he said.

Govina said the authorities were "fully aware" of their responsibilities as a licence in the Baltic state opens the gates to the entire EU market.

Another company that has recently set up in Lithuania is London-based DiPocket Group, which has developed an e-money wallet app.

"Brexit was definitely the trigger event," said DiPocket CEO and co-founder Fedele Di Maggio.

He said he found the central bank "both strict and supportive" and described the local workforce as "generally English-speaking and with reasonable financial expectations".

IMF dismisses inflation concerns of Biden stimulus plan

Feb 20,2021 - Last updated at Feb 20,2021

This photo, taken on October 13, 2020, shows Gita Gopinath, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, speaking in Washington, DC (AFP file photo)

WASHINGTON — Fears that inflation could spiral out of control due to a massive US stimulus package are overblown, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said on Friday.

Her argument contradicted critics of US President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion rescue package for the world's largest economy, who say the amount is excessive, and even those Democratic economists who have also raised concerns about price spikes.

Gopinath estimated that with the full amount of stimulus, inflation "would reach around 2.25 per cent in 2022, which is nothing to be concerned about", she said in a blog post.

Some economists, including former Treasury secretary Larry Summers, have urged caution saying excess spending could spark an inflationary spiral that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would find difficult to control.

Rising prices would erode purchasing power while higher interest rates to control inflation would send the cost of borrowing soaring in an economy already awash in debt amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Gopinath noted the "concerns about an overheated economy that could push inflation well above the comfort zone of central bankers". But she said "the evidence from the last four decades makes it unlikely." 

In the decade following the global financial crisis, US annual inflation barely cracked the Federal Reserve's 2 per cent target, and in December the rate was just 1.3 per cent.

Gopinath said the proposed government aid will push US gross domestic product up 5 to 6 per cent over three years, which would recoup the 3.5 per cent contraction in 2020.

The IMF has consistently supported a large US stimulus plan to recover from the COVID-19-induced recession that has left millions jobless.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeated on Thursday the administration view that "the price of doing too little is much higher than the price of doing something big”.

Yellen noted that inflation has been very low for over a decade, and while it remains a risk "it's a risk the Fed and others have tools to address."

Market turbulence 

 

Yellen, like US central bank chief Jerome Powell, who succeeded her in the post, stressed that true unemployment in the US is close to 10 per cent — above the government's official rate of 6.3 per cent last month — and about nine million people remain unemployed, which she says justifies the size of the government aid.

But growing signs that the economy is coming back to life as businesses reopen amid an accelerating vaccination campaign have caused markets to begin to fret about impending price hikes.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes, a benchmark for inflation expectations, has been rising sharply since October, and accelerated since the start of the year to around 1.3 per cent, the highest since before the pandemic.

Those fears got a boost from a spike in the producer price index, which showed wholesale inflation surged 1.3 per cent in January, the largest since the index was revamped in December 2009.

But Powell last week brushed off inflation concerns, saying after prices collapsed last year, some sharp increases are expected but would be unlikely to last.

In the current environment, "we want to see actual inflation," before the Fed would take any steps to raise interest rates or roll back the massive bond-buying programme, Powell said.

His colleague John Williams at the Fed's New York branch said he was "not really concerned about stimulus... right now being excessive”.

He said the central bank is not worried about Treasury yields and so far is not seeing any signs of excessive behaviour by businesses or households.

Gopinath, the IMF economist, acknowledged "the danger of market turbulence" due to temporary price swings, or bad news about new virus variants.

But she said that in the wake of the crisis "considerable slack remains in the global economy" which would dampen price pressures, and worldwide supply chains have largely not suffered disruptions, removing another potential source of rising costs.

Daimler sees good times ahead

By - Feb 19,2021 - Last updated at Feb 19,2021

BERLIN — German automobile group Daimler on Thursday predicted its sales and revenues will rise "significantly" in 2021, despite the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

"We are confident that we can maintain positive momentum if current market conditions prevail," CEO Ola Kallenius said in a statement.

Current shortages of semiconductor chips that are slowing car production worldwide "can be compensated for by the end of the year", the Mercedez-Benz maker said.

Outsized demand for personal electronics as huge swathes of populations work from home during the pandemic has led to an acute shortage of semiconductor chips.

For 2020, Daimler booked 4.0 billion euros in net profit, a 48 per cent increase on the previous year when it was hit by one-off expenses.

The group confirmed preliminary results from January showing profit before interest and taxes (EBIT) of 6.6 billion euros ($8.0 billion), up by around half on 2019's figure.

Activity rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter after a dramatic slowdown early in the year due to the pandemic.

Daimler said it expects the global economy to recover strongly in 2021 "in the absence of further unexpected pandemic-related setbacks". 

The group announced in early February that it would spin off its truck division and rename itself Mercedes-Benz after its top-selling luxury brand.

Shares in the new truck company will be offered to the group's existing shareholders.

The planned listing on the Frankfurt stock exchange will be put to shareholders for approval during an extraordinary meeting likely during the third quarter of the year. 

Daimler also warned that the positive effects expected in the second half of the year "cannot be reliably determined at present".

 

EU to push greener trade policy, WTO reform

By - Feb 19,2021 - Last updated at Feb 19,2021

BRUSSELS — The European Union will make fighting the climate emergency central to its trade policy and push for major reform at the World trade Organisation (WTO), according to a new strategy revealed on Thursday.

The new thinking on EU trade policy came with hopes in Brussels for deeper cooperation with the Biden Administration in the US after four years of fractious ties with the protectionist Donald Trump.

The EU, a massive market of 450 million people, has struggled to meet its trade policy objectives in the face of US protectionism and other obstacles.

A top official of the European Commission, which handles trade policy for the EU's 27 member states, announced the new strategy, which is intended to help set goals over the next 10 years.

"The challenges we face require a new strategy for EU trade policy," EU Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, who leads the bloc's trade policy, said in a statement.

"Trade policy must fully support the green and digital transformations of our economy and lead global efforts to reform the WTO," he said.

In its new vision, the Commission proposed that future trade deals embrace the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, whose absence from previous accords has been seen as a major shortcoming.

One example is the EU's long-negotiated trade deal with the South American Mercosur countries, which is in jeopardy because of concerns over mass deforestation in Brazil. 

Brussels will also seek to become more assertive in projecting its independence from the US and Chinese economic behemoths, with an embrace of multilateralism to include India and African nations.

This would require a major overhaul of the 164-member World Trade Organisation that has been crippled by a deep rift with the US, which believes its rules are inadequate on reining in China.

"The global rulebook is outdated. It no longer guarantees a level playing field," Dombrovskis said.

The new appointment of Nigerian-American Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the WTO's new head presents "an opportunity for a fresh start," the commission said.

She will take over leadership on March 1 of an institution that has become weighed down and increasingly defanged, notably by Washington's refusal to replace key posts.

The EU also said it would set up mechanisms to ensure that companies do not use forced labour, an especially sensitive topic after Europe signed a controversial investment deal with China in December.

That deal faces a tough ratification process, with the European Parliament keen for Beijing to sign on to the International Labour Organisation's ban on the use of forced labour.

 

 

 

Airbus books 1.1b euro loss in 2020 in wake of Covid-19

By - Feb 19,2021 - Last updated at Feb 19,2021

This photo, taken on May 13, 2020, shows the logo of European aircraft manufacturer Airbus in Toulouse, southern France. (AFP file photo)

PARIS — European aircraft giant Airbus said Thursday it was able to limit its losses last year, even as the airline sector collapsed in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Airbus said in a statement that it booked a net loss of 1.1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in 2020.

That was a slight improvement over the previous year's bottom-line loss of 1.4 billion euros, when Airbus was hit with a huge fine of 3.6 billion euros in a corruption scandal.

The company's US rival Boeing had a massive loss of $11.9 billion last year as the Covid-19 crisis played out, combined with getting its key 737 MAX aircraft back in the air.

"The 2020 results demonstrate the resilience of Airbus in the most challenging crisis to hit the aerospace industry," said chief executive Guillaume Faury. 

Group revenues plunged to 49.9 billion euros from 70.5 billion euros a year earlier, "driven by the difficult market environment impacting the commercial aircraft business with 34 percent fewer deliveries year-on-year," Airbus said.

A total of 566 commercial aircraft were delivered, comprising 38 A220s, 446 A320s, 19 A330s, 59 A350s and four A380s, compared with 863 aircraft in 2019.

Airbus said it saw no immediate improvement for the industry's prospects for now.

"Many uncertainties remain for our industry in 2021 as the pandemic continues to impact lives, economies and societies," Faury said.

 

 

Hedge fund strikes deal for Tribune Publishing newspaper group

By - Feb 17,2021 - Last updated at Feb 17,2021

This photo shows employees at the Chicago Tribune sold to a hedge fund on Wednesday (AFP file photo)

WASHINGTON — The publisher of the Chicago Tribune, New York Daily News and other regional newspapers has struck a deal to be sold to a hedge fund with a reputation for aggressive cost-cutting at its media outlets.

Alden Global Capital said it would pay $650 million to acquire the shares it does not already own in Tribune Publishing, according to a joint statement on Tuesday on the latest deal consolidating the struggling US newspaper sector.

As part of the agreement, the companies agreed to spin off the Baltimore Sun to a nonprofit group formed this year called Sunlight for All Institute, which will operate the daily and its affiliates in Maryland. 

Tribune chairman Philip Franklin said that the publishing group's committee examining offers was able to negotiate "a premium, all-cash price, which the committee concluded was superior to the available alternatives".

The deal comes with newspapers across the United States facing a financial calamity worsened by the coronavirus pandemic, with several bankruptcies and consolidations in recent years.

The Alden deal drew fire from some media watchdogs concerned about the hedge fund's reputation for slashing costs at newspapers it has acquired.

News Guild President Jon Schleuss called the buyout "a terrible deal for the company, the workers, the shareholders and our democracy", adding in a tweet: "Alden is only interested in extreme short-term profits by cutting everything to the bone."

Vanity Fair media writer Joe Pompeo recently called Alden "the hedge fund vampire that bleeds newspapers dry," citing its downsizing of newsrooms at The Denver Post and other local newspapers.

Washington Post columnist Margaret Sullivan in 2018 called Alden "one of the most ruthless of the corporate strip-miners seemingly intent on destroying local journalism".

The deal — subject to shareholder approval — would take Tribune Publishing private and include the Hartford Courant, South Florida's Sun Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel, Virginia's Daily Press and The Virginian-Pilot, as well as The Morning Call of Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania.

 

Bitcoin surges past $50,000 for first time

By - Feb 16,2021 - Last updated at Feb 16,2021

This photo taken on September 24, 2020, shows a physical imitation of a Bitcoin at a cryptocurrency ‘Bitcoin Change’ shop, near Grand Bazaar, in Istanbul (AFP file photo)

LONDON — Bitcoin soared above $50,000 for the first time on Tuesday as an increasing number of corporate heavyweights back the world’s most popular virtual currency.

At around 12:35 GMT, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $50,547.70, marking a 4.4-per cent gain since Monday.

Bitcoin, once the preserve of internet geeks and hobbyists, has since exploded in popularity and has now rocketed by almost 75 per cent in value so far this year.

“The crypto king has crossed the 50K price level for the first time as institutions are all over it,” said AvaTrade analyst Naeem Aslam.

“There is a lot of FOMO [fear of missing out] among traders as the price is going through the roof and we have limited supply.”

It later pulled back to stand at $49,080.30 at about 13:45 GMT.

“The rally has still a lot of power left and the move is going to continue towards the actual target of $100,000,” Aslam said.

“Of course, there will be some bumps but investors should consider them as an opportunity to bag some bargains.”

Bitcoin has been on a meteoric rise since March, when it stood at $5,000, spurred by online payments giant PayPal saying it would allow account holders to use cryptocurrency.

The unit blasted its way past $45,000 last week after Elon Musk’s electric carmaker Tesla invested $1.5 billion in the virtual unit.

In a further boost, Tesla also unveiled plans to accept the cryptocurrency from customers buying its vehicles.

Wall Street player BNY Mellon then jumped aboard the Bitcoin bandwagon, announcing plans to accept digital currencies.

The moves came after Mastercard also announced it would accept the unit, even as many regulators remain sceptical.

Adding further legitimacy, Twitter chief Jack Dorsey revealed last week that he and rap mogul Jay-Z were creating a fund aimed at making bitcoin “the Internet’s currency”.

Bitcoin, which was launched back in 2009, hit the headlines in 2017 after soaring from less than $1,000 in January to almost $20,000 in December of the same year.

The virtual bubble then burst in subsequent days, with bitcoin’s value then fluctuating wildly before sinking below $5,000 by October 2018.

However, strengthening corporate support has transformed the outlook this time around, commentators say.

“Growing corporate support for the crypto makes this a very different market to what it was in 2017,” noted Markets.com analyst Neil Wilson.

Bitcoins are traded via a decentralised registry system known as a blockchain.

The system requires massive computer processing power in order to manage and implement transactions.

That power is provided by miners, who do so in the hope they will receive new bitcoins for validating transaction data.

Japan economy shrinks for first time since 2009 but tops forecast

By - Feb 16,2021 - Last updated at Feb 16,2021

TOKYO — Japan’s pandemic-hit economy shrank in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade, but the contraction was less than expected and it ended the year on a strong note, thanks to a pick-up in exports and huge government support.

Still, analysts warned the near-term outlook could be bumpy as fresh virus restrictions dampen domestic consumption, and with borders still closed to tourists less than six months before the postponed Olympics.

The world’s third-largest economy shrank 4.8 per cent last year, its first annual contraction since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.

However, the figure was better than forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts thanks to a strong October-December performance, which saw the economy expand 12.7 per cent from the previous quarter on an annualised basis.

Government stimulus measures of about $3 trillion since the COVID-19 pandemic began provided crucial support.

The news helped send Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index rallying more than one per cent to break 30,000 for the first time in more than three decades.

Shahana Mukherjee, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said better-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter was driven by Japan’s “resilient trade position” with exports up and a smaller rise in private consumption.

“The intense domestic third COVID-19 wave moderated Japan’s recovery momentum in the last months of 2020,” she said.

“But with exports continuing to recover and the Pfizer vaccine approval coming through, the months ahead should see a stronger revival,” Mukherjee added.

Like other countries, Japan was plunged into a steep recession at the start of 2020 — suffering its worst second quarter on record — as virus containment measures throttled economic activity, while a 2019 consumption tax added to the weakness.

A slowdown in new cases allowed business to bounce back in the second half, with domestic demand and net exports contributing to the improvement, the cabinet office said.

Spending on housing and corporate investment also rebounded, it added.

 

Olympic question 

 

However, infections began surging to new records in late December, prompting the government to impose a fresh virus state of emergency in much of the country including Tokyo and Osaka — and while the long-term outook is positive, there was a warning for the start of 2021.

“A decline in GDP appears unavoidable in Q1 2021 due to the state of emergency declared by the government in a number of Japanese prefectures,” said Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at SuMi Trust, in a note published ahead of Monday’s figure.

Japan’s virus measures are limited, with bars and restaurants requested but not obliged to close by 8pm while working from home is strongly recommended. There are no blanket stay-at-home orders. 

Oshikubo said the relative leniency of these emergency measures could help mitigate the expected contraction in the first quarter.

But observers said the economy will not likely receive the much-needed boost from the summer’s postponed 2020 Olympics, even as organisers insist the event will go ahead even if the pandemic is not fully under control.

With doubts over whether foreign spectators will be allowed to attend, and plans for athletes and officials to stay isolated during the Games, there will not be much chance for spending, said Anwita Basu, head of country risk for Asia at Fitch Solutions.

“The growth outcome of zero spectators and Games not being held would be roughly the same,” she said.

Anti-virus measures and other delay-related costs have added 294 billion yen ($2.8 billion) to the event’s price tag, which has ballooned to at least 1.64 trillion yen — making Tokyo 2020 potentially the most expensive Summer Olympics in history.

But with people’s everyday financial priority to “get over the COVID hump and normalise their day-to-day living... I’m not sure psychologically the Games are going to be welcomed [in Japan]”, Basu added.

“The consumption sentiment could even get lower if they decide to carry on with the Games.”

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