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Moody's downgrades France credit rating to Aa3

By - Dec 15,2024 - Last updated at Dec 15,2024

Christmas lights are pictured at the Galeries Lafayette department store in Paris with the Eiffel Tower seen in the background at sunset on Nov. 25, 2024 (AFP file photo)

PARIS — Ratings agency Moody's downgraded France's credit rating recently to Aa3 with a stable outlook, following months of political crisis and the appointment of centrist Francois Bayrou as prime minister.

Moody's cited France's "political fragmentation" in its decision, which comes after parliament ousted Michel Barnier's government in a historic no-confidence vote following a standoff over an austerity budget.

"The decision to downgrade France's ratings to Aa3 reflects our view that France's public finances will be substantially weakened by the country's political fragmentation which, for the foreseeable future, will constrain the scope and magnitude of measures that could narrow large deficits," the ratings agency said in a statement.

Bayrou's appointment makes him France's fourth prime minister this year, with Barnier being booted out after just three months in office.

The newly appointed premier faces the immediate challenge of forming a cabinet that can survive a no-confidence vote in a divided parliament and thrashing out a 2025 budget in a bid to limit economic turmoil.

"In a highly politically fragmented environment, there is now very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year," Moody's said.

The ratings agency opened the door to downgrading France in October, when it changed the country's outlook from stable to negative.

German central bank cuts growth forecasts as headwinds intensify

By - Dec 14,2024 - Last updated at Dec 14,2024

FRANKFURT, Germany — Germany's central bank on Friday sharply downgraded its growth forecasts for next year and 2026, predicting a prolonged period of weakness for Europe's biggest economy as it battles multiple headwinds.

From a manufacturing slowdown and weak export demand to heightened political uncertainty at home and the risk of renewed trade tensions under US President-elect Donald Trump, the German economy is facing a perfect storm.

The Bundesbank forecast output will grow a meagre 0.2 per cent in 2025, down from a forecast in June of a 1.1 per cent expansion. For 2026 it forecast growth of 0.8 per cent, down from a 1.4 expansion expected previously.

The estimates are substantially worse than the last projections from the government released in October, and will ring alarm bells among policymakers who had hoped for a strong rebound starting next year.

"The German economy is not only struggling with persistent economic headwinds, but also with structural problems," said Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel, as he unveiled the bank's latest six-monthly forecast.

As widely expected, the central bank also cut its forecast for 2024 to a contraction of 0.2 per cent — which largely lines up with other recent estimates, including from the government.

The latest bleak forecast is a headache for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who already faces an uphill battle to persuade voters to re-elect him at polls expected in February, seven months earlier than scheduled.

The country's economic malaise is a central campaign issue after Scholz's coalition government collapsed in November amid a bitter row over the budget and the best approach to reboot the world's third-biggest economy.

German hospitals fear labour shortages if Syrians leave

By - Dec 14,2024 - Last updated at Dec 14,2024

Members of the Syrian community hols flags of Syria and Germany as they rally on December 8, 2024 in Berlin, Germany, to celebrate the end of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's rule after rebels took control of the Syrian capital Damascus overnight (AFP file photo)

BERLIN — German hospitals and other employers fear worker shortages if many Syrian refugees return home after the fall of president Bashar al-Assad, a concern backed by a study released recently.

Health care providers have warned that more than 5,000 Syrian doctors work in German medical facilities, often in rural areas, and that they and other staff would be hard to replace.

Europe's biggest economy has taken in around one million refugees from war-ravaged Syria in an influx that peaked in 2015 under ex-chancellor Angela Merkel.

While they were initially greeted warmly, the mass arrivals sparked a backlash that fuelled the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Since the fall of Assad, conservative and AfD politicians have called for Syrians to return to their homeland despite lingering insecurity there.

Many employers fear this could worsen fast-ageing Germany's labour shortages, a concern backed by a study of the Institute for Employment Research released on Friday.

Large-scale returns "could have noticeable regional and sector-specific effects — especially in those sectors, fields of activity and regions that are already suffering from a shortage of labour," said institute researcher Yuliya Kosyakova.

It said that 287,000 Syrian nationals are employed in Germany, with many who arrived in recent years still enrolled in language and so-called integration courses.

Syrian men work mostly in transport and logistics, manufacturing, food and hospitality, health and construction, while women were more strongly represented in social and cultural services, it said.

News magazine Der Spiegel reported that 5,758 Syrian medical doctors work in Germany, citing data from the German Medical Association.

"We can understand that many of them want to return to their homeland and are urgently needed there," German Hospital Association chairman Gerald Gass told the magazine.

But he warned that they play an important role, especially in smaller towns, and warned: "If they leave Germany in large numbers, this will undoubtedly be felt in the staffing levels."

With many Syrians also employed as care workers, their departure would be a "serious blow for elderly care", Nursing Employers' Association director Isabell Halletz told news channel NTV.

German economic institutes pessimistic on growth in 2025

By - Dec 12,2024 - Last updated at Dec 12,2024

The headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on Thursday, prior to the bank's press conference on monetary policy in the eurozone. (AFP photo)

BERLIN — German economic institutes on Thursday issued pessimistic growth forecasts for 2025 as Europe's biggest economy faces political risks at home and abroad.

"We see a critical combination of an economic downturn and structural problems," said the DIW institute's Geraldine Dany-Knedlik.

The DIW said it expected output to fall by 0.2 per cent this year followed by a "gradual revival" of 0.2 per cent growth in the year ahead.

Concern centred on export-oriented manufacturing, the backbone of the German economy.

Higher energy and material costs, as well as stronger international competition, especially from China, were buffeting the key sector, said Dany-Knedlik, the head of forecasting.

She also pointed to "the threat of tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump", who has vowed tariffs of at least 10 per cent on all imports, a major issue for German exporters.

Weaker export performance was "likely to dampen German economic growth" in the coming years, the DIW concluded.

The IfW Kiel came to a similar conclusion, revising down its 2025 growth forecast to zero from an increase of 0.5 per cent.

"The reasons for the downward revision are mainly the expected US tariffs and the worsening crisis in German industry," it said.

The Ifo institute in Munich meanwhile allowed more optimism in its predictions for the coming 12 months.

"If the right economic policy is put in place, growth of 1.1 per cent could be achieved in 2025," the Ifo said, cautioning that the way forward was "not yet clear".

Germany is headed for new elections in late February, with the formation of a new coalition government then likely to take weeks if not months.

Without policies to encourage investment, the German economy would eek out a more modest 0.4 per cent growth in 2025, the Ifo said.

"The decisive factor will be whether the export-oriented German economy can once again benefit from growth in other countries," Ifo expert Timo Wollmershaeuser said.

 

Jordan’s FTAs provide access to global markets worth $50 trillion — minister

By - Dec 11,2024 - Last updated at Dec 11,2024

The Ministry of Investment (Al Mamlaka photo)

AMMAN — Minister of Investment Muthanna Gharaibeh on Wednesday highlighted the "longstanding" relations between Jordan and France, expressing pride in the growing cooperation between the two nations.

He noted that French investments in Jordan have advanced, particularly in key sectors, making them among the largest foreign investments in the Kingdom.

Gharaibeh made his remarks during a meeting organised by the Jordanian-French Businessmen’s Club (CAFRAJ), which saw the presence of French Ambassador to Jordan Alexis Le Cour Grandmaison, Secretary-General of the Ministry of Investment Zahir Qatarnah, Club President Walid Zarab, and investors from both Jordan and France, according to the Jordan News Agency, Petra.

The minister stressed that Jordan’s economy offers several advantages for investors, including political stability, a skilled workforce, a strategic geographic location, and a range of incentives, such as tax exemptions. 

Jordan’s numerous free trade agreements provide access to global markets worth $50 trillion, covering over 1.4 billion consumers, further boosting its attractiveness to investors, he added, noting that these advantages position Jordan as a leading investment hub in the region. 

Gharaibeh outlined key investment opportunities in Jordan, particularly through public-private partnerships, urging both local and international companies to take advantage of these opportunities, whether by launching new projects or collaborating with existing companies to expand operations and reach new markets.

The minister reiterated the government’s commitment to supporting investors through simplified procedures and a conducive legal environment, highlighting that Jordan offers numerous incentives to boost investment competitiveness.

During the event, participants discussed potential aspects for future cooperation.

Founded in 1998, the Jordanian-French Businessmen’s Club currently includes more than 300 Jordanian and French companies operating in Jordan with the aim of fostering stronger economic and commercial ties between the two countries and encouraging French companies, particularly SMEs, to invest in the Kingdom.

Inflation rises by 1.54 % in first eleven months of 2024 – DoS

By - Dec 11,2024 - Last updated at Dec 11,2024

AMMAN — Jordan's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, increased by 1.54 per cent year-to-date through November, reaching 110.62 points, compared with 108.95 points during the same period last year, according to official data released on Wednesday.

The Department of Statistics (DoS) monthly report highlighted personal accessories as the leading contributor to inflation, with a significant 12.38 per cent increase.

Utilities, including water and sewage services, also saw a rise of 7.34 per cent, according to the Jordan News Agency, Petra. 

Other contributors to the inflationary trend included professional association fees, which rose by 5.86 per cent, rental costs increasing by 3.84 per cent, and tobacco products, which saw a 3.83 per cent increase.

For November, the CPI reading stood at 111.04 points, reflecting a 1.35 per cent year-over-year increase from 109.56 points in November 2023.

The monthly breakdown showed that personal accessories surged by 20.23 per cent annually, while utilities continued to rise, up 7.34 per cent. 

Tobacco products saw a 6.75 per cent increase, and professional fees rose by 5.86 per cent.

Deflationary pressures were observed in several categories. Furniture and carpeting dropped by 3.52 per cent, fruits and nuts decreased by 3.51 per cent, and clothing prices fell by 2.46 per cent. Energy costs also showed a decrease of 2.12 per cent.

On a month-over-month basis, the CPI edged up to 111.04 points in November from 110.61 in October. 

Key drivers included a 2.71 per cent increase in vegetables and legumes, a 2.63 per cent rise in oils and fats, a 1.74 per cent increase in transportation costs, and a 0.47 per cent uptick in meat and poultry prices.

 

ASE, Securities Depository Centre sign linkage agreement with Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange

By - Dec 11,2024 - Last updated at Dec 11,2024

The agreement aims to integrate with the ADX-operated Tabadul platform, which connects a network of Arab and Asian stock exchanges (Petra photo)

AMMAN — The Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) and the Securities Depository Centre on Wednesday signed an agreement in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to establish an electronic link with the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). 

The agreement aims to integrate with the ADX-operated Tabadul platform, which connects a network of Arab and Asian stock exchanges, according to the Jordan News Agency, Petra. 

ASE CEO Mazen Wathaifi, CEO of the Securities Depository Centre Sara Tarawneh and ADX CEO Abdullah Naimi signed the agreement.

Launched in July 2022, the Tabadul platform facilitates interconnectivity among member markets, allowing brokerages to easily access each market. 

The agreement will allow investors to take advantage of investment opportunities by trading remotely across markets, within the framework of a bilateral agreement between the exchanges.

Brokerage transactions in the other market will follow the rules of that market, with each custodian handling the financial settlement of contracts involving local brokers.

A joint statement said that the next steps include the development of regulations for the registration of brokerage firms that wish to trade in the other market through the Tabadul platform. 

Arrangements will be made to ensure the proper settlement of securities transactions, with the aim of setting an implementation date for the agreement in both markets.

Chairperson of the Jordan Securities Commission Adel Bino highlighted that the agreement aligns with the Cabinet’s directive to advance the electronic linkage project between Jordan’s capital market institutions and ADX.

Bino noted that the initiative aims to enhance cooperation between the two markets, improve liquidity, and facilitate direct trading for investors via the Tabadul platform, stressing that this step supports "broader economic growth" by expanding and developing the financial markets of both countries.

Wathaifi underlined that the agreement reflects the "robust" strategic partnership between Jordan and the UAE. 

He said that the agreement would support the Economic Modernisation Vision by fostering openness to regional and global financial markets, encouraging knowledge exchange, and enhancing market liquidity.

Tarawneh said that the agreement would expand investment opportunities, enabling seamless cross-border securities trading within a "solid" legal framework, adding that it guarantees "accurate and reliable" completion of pre- and post-trade processes, including account setup and securities price settlements.

 

Jordan’s unemployment rate drops to 21.5% in Q3 2024 - DoS

By - Dec 10,2024 - Last updated at Dec 10,2024

File photo

AMMAN — The unemployment rate in the Kingdom dropped to 21.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a 0.8 percentage point decrease compared with the same period in 2023, according to the quarterly report by the Department of Statistics (DoS) released on Tuesday.

Unemployment among males declined to 18.3 per cent, a 1.5 percentage point reduction from the third quarter of 2023, while female unemployment rose to 33.3 per cent, marking a 1.6 percentage point increase during the same period, according to the Jordan News Agency, Petra. 

Compared with the second quarter of 2024, male unemployment decreased by 0.6 percentage points, while female unemployment saw a rise of 2.3 percentage points.

The report also showed that 58.8 per cent of the unemployed hold a high school diploma or higher, while 40.8 per cent have qualifications below high school level.

At the governorate level, Ma’an recorded the highest unemployment rate at 24.3 per cent, while Aqaba registered the lowest at 16.3 per cent, highlighting an 8-percentage-point disparity between the two governorates.

Employment rates among those aged 15 years and older stood at 26.9 per cent, while the figure for individuals aged 23 years and older reached 32.5 per cent.

The report also noted that female economic participation in Jordan remains below the Arab regional average of 20 per cent.

 

China's Xi warns 'no winners' in trade war with US

By - Dec 10,2024 - Last updated at Dec 10,2024

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Tuesday that there would be "no winners" in a trade war with the United States and vowed the country would hit its growth goals for the year.

 

Former US president Donald Trump -- who returns to the White House next month -- unleashed a gruelling trade war with China during his first term in office, lambasting alleged intellectual property theft and other "unfair" practices.

 

He has pledged to impose even higher tariffs on China after taking office on January 20, as Beijing is grappling with a shaky post-pandemic economic recovery.

 

"Tariff wars, trade wars, and technology wars go against historical trends and economic rules, and there will be no winners," Xi said of China-US relations while meeting several heads of multilateral financial institutions in Beijing, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

 

"China is willing to maintain dialogue with the US government, expand cooperation, manage differences and promote the development of China-US relations in a stable, healthy and sustainable direction," said Xi.

 

Beijing is targeting annual growth this year of around five per cent, despite sluggish domestic consumption, high unemployment and a prolonged crisis in the vast property sector.

 

Xi also said during Tuesday's meeting that China had "full confidence" in achieving its 2024 growth goal, state media reported.

 

His remarks came as official data showed the country's exports rose last month at a slower rate than expected while imports shrunk further, underscoring the challenges China is still facing.

 

The latest reading reinforced the need for more support a day after top officials pledged to bolster stuttering growth.

 

Trade war looms 

 

Overseas shipments this year have represented a rare bright spot in the Chinese economy, with domestic spending mired in a slump and persistent woes in the property sector spooking investors.

 

Exports jumped 6.7 per cent on-year to $312.3 billion last month, China's General Administration of Customs said.

 

But the figure was much slower than the 8.7 per cent anticipated by economists in a Bloomberg survey and well down from the 12.7 per cent leap in October, which was the strongest in more than two years.

 

The data showed exports grew 5.4 per cent on-year in January-November.

 

"China's exports were perhaps the biggest upside surprise for the economy in 2024," wrote Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

 

This is "one of the main reasons China is set to achieve its 'around five per cent' growth target" for this year, he added.

 

Analysts have suggested the recent surge in shipments is because foreign buyers fearing another trade standoff were racing to beat any possible tariffs on Chinese goods by Trump.

 

"We could see some frontloading of exports in the coming few months but momentum is likely to soften after this is done, unless the outcome of tariff negotiations is surprisingly positive," wrote Song.

 

The 3.9 per cent drop in imports last month extended a slide in the previous month -- and was much worse than the 0.9 per cent rise forecast -- as domestic demand continues to be dampened by lacklustre consumer spending.

 

The readings come as investors closely watch signals from Chinese leaders, who are convening this week in Beijing for a series of key meetings on economic planning for the coming year.

 

The Politburo, China's top decision-making body, on Monday urged "vigorous" support for consumption and a loosening of monetary policy in 2025.

 

But observers are still waiting for the announcement of specific policies, particularly any measures to significantly bolster consumption.

 

Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note that another key meeting on economic policy -- expected to take place in the coming days -- could "shed more light, particularly on the fiscal policy front".

 

 

ABJ launches FinApp.jo platform to boost financial literacy

By - Dec 10,2024 - Last updated at Dec 10,2024

AMMAN — In a step towards improving financial awareness in Jordan, the Association of Banks in Jordan (ABJ) on Tuesday launched the Kingdom’s first Financial Awareness Platform, FinApp.jo.

The groundbreaking initiative was unveiled in the presence of Governor of the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) Adel Sharkas, who underscored the importance of financial literacy as the foundation for making informed financial decisions. 

He underscored the platform as a strategic effort to foster a culture of responsible financial behaviour through high-quality content and innovative educational tools.

Sharkas also highlighted the CBJ’s pivotal role in promoting financial inclusion, pointing to the successes of the first National Financial Inclusion Strategy launched in 2017, which narrowed the gender gap in financial access from 53 per cent to 22 per cent. 

Building on this success, the second strategy for 2023-2028 focuses on areas such as savings, insurance, digital payments, and access to finance, aiming to boost financial inclusion in Jordan to 65 per cent by 2028 and further reduce the gender gap.

ABJ Chairman Bassem Khalil Salem commanded the platform as a “groundbreaking initiative” designed to enhance financial literacy across all segments of society. 

He also said that "financial awareness is directly linked to financial inclusion, enabling individuals and small businesses to engage in the formal economy, reducing the informal sector, promoting transparency, and driving economic growth."

ABJ Director General Maher Mahrouq said that the platform aims to tackle critical challenges such as limited financial literacy and poor personal financial planning.

He also noted that it offers four main sections: an overview of the banking sector, financial literacy, entrepreneurship, and financial technology.

Mahrouq also said that the platform is a model of institutional cooperation, developed in partnership with the CBJ, local and international institutions, and banks.

Mahrouq also highlighted plans to partner with Al Hussein Technical University to create a financial literacy curriculum that will be freely accessible online and, eventually, offered as an elective course at the university.

The launch event was attended by key figures, including Kuwaiti Ambassador to Jordan Hamad Rashid Al Mari, bank executives, and financial experts.

 

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