How will Trump and Harris deal with the Middle East?

As the 2024 US presidential race intensifies, the stakes for the Middle East have never been higher. With Donald Trump seeking a return to the White House and Kamala Harris aiming to become the first female president, the region finds itself once again at the crossroads of American foreign policy.

The outcomes of their potential presidencies could shape the Middle East’s future in profoundly different ways, reflecting their distinct approaches and priorities.

Donald Trump’s presidency was marked by a keen focus on the Middle East, beginning with his historic first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017. 

His administration’s policies were characterised by a combination of personal diplomacy, economic leverage, and military might.

Trump’s close relationships with regional leaders, notably Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, allowed him to broker significant agreements, including the Abraham Accords, which normalided relations between Israel and several Arab states.

Should Trump return to power,we can expect a continuation of his “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran, which he claims weakened Tehran’s ability to support groups like Hamas.

Trump has already positioned himself as the candidate who could have prevented the October 7, 2023 Gaza war, a conflict he argues would not have erupted under his watch. His administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander,

marked the height of US-Iran tensions. However, Trump has hinted that he may pursue a new agreement with Iran, on his terms, if reelected.

Trump’s focus on Israel will likely remain steadfast, with potential expansions of the Abraham Accords to include other Arab nations.

Yet, his approach could also bring instability, especially in conflict zones like Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. His previous attempts to withdraw US troops from Syria, only to reverse course under military pressure, suggest that a second Trump administration could revisit these contentious issues, potentially leading to significant shifts in US military presence in the region.

Kamala Harris, often seen as the female version of Barack Obama, represents a different kind of challenge for the Middle East. Her tenure as vice president did not prominently feature Middle East policy, but her recent moves indicate a potential departure from the Biden administration’s approach. Harris has already demonstrated a willingness to break from the status quo, as seen in her call for a ceasefire during the Gaza conflict, a stance that contrasted with Washington’s staunch support for Israel at the time.

Harris’s commitment to pursuing a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, a position she articulated in a recent CNN interview, underscores her intention to address this longstanding issue with renewed vigor.

However, the Palestinian issue has become a flashpoint within her Democratic Party, with the progressive wing demanding a more balanced US policy toward Israel. Harris’s  ability to navigate this internal pressure while maintaining strong support among key voter demographics, including Arab and Muslim Americans, could prove decisive in her campaign.

Kamala Harris’s commitment to pursuing a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a bold and strategic move that has significant implications for both US foreign policy and the 2024 presidential election.

By positioning herself as a leader committed to diplomacy and human rights, Harris is appealing to key voter demographics in critical battleground states, particularly in the Sun Belt.

However, this policy also presents challenges, both in terms of navigating the complexities of the Middle East and in managing domestic political reactions.

As the election approaches, Harris’s ability to articulate and defend her stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.

The Sun Belt states, with Georgia at the forefront, are likely to be pivotal in deciding the next president of the United States.

In contrast to Trump’s bombastic style, Harris is likely to adopt a more diplomatic and multilateral approach to the Middle East. While she may not bring about a radical shift in US policy, her administration could see incremental changes, particularly in how America engages with Iran and handles the Palestinian question. 

Harris’s success in these areas will depend on her ability to balance domestic electoral pressures with the complex realities of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

For both Trump and Harris, the Middle East is not just a foreign policy challenge, it is a domestic electoral issue. States with significant Arab and Muslim populations, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, could play a crucial role in deciding the next president.

Harris’s ability to win over these voters could be the difference between victory and defeat, especially in an election as closely contested as this one.

The Sun Belt states, particularly Georgia, have emerged as critical battlegrounds in the 2024 election. 

These states, once reliable Republican strongholds, have become increasingly competitive due to demographic changes, including an influx of younger, more diverse voters and a growing population of Black and Hispanic residents.

Harris’s improved standing in these states, as indicated by recent polling, suggests that her message is resonating with these key voter groups.

In Georgia, where Harris now leads Trump by 2 points, her commitment to a two-state solution could further solidify her support among Black voters, who have historically shown strong interest in international human rights issues, including the Palestinian cause.

Moreover, the Sun Belt’s growing influence in national elections means that Harris’s success in these states could be decisive.

If she can maintain or expand her lead in states like Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, it could offset potential losses in traditional swing states in the Rust Belt, giving her a clear path to victory in the electoral college.

Trump, on the other hand, will likely double down on his

strongman image, using his past successes in the region to appeal to his base. However, his polarising approach could alienate moderate voters who are wary of further entanglements in the Middle East.

In the end, the 2024 election will not only determine the future of US leadership but also chart the course of America’s involvement in the Middle East.

The choices made by Trump or Harris in office will resonate far beyond US borders, shaping the lives of millions in a region that remains a focal point of global

power dynamics. As Americans head to the polls, the Middle East will be watching closely, knowing that the outcome could set the stage for a new chapter in US-Middle East relations.