What is Jordan concern of Tramp’s Statements?

Jordan's concerns about US President Donald Trump's recent statements regarding the potential relocation of Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan or Egypt have caused significant unease within Jordanian political and public circles. Trump's remarks included the suggestion of temporarily or permanently relocating Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt or Jordan under the guise of rebuilding Gaza.

The strange aspect of Trump's comments is that Jordan has never been involved in the geographic or political displacement of Gaza's Palestinians, especially since there is no direct geographical border between Jordan and Gaza, unlike Egypt. When former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken proposed this scenario earlier, Jordan rejected it—not because of fear of receiving Gaza's Palestinians, but due to concerns that it could be a precursor to the displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank. This makes it puzzling as to why Trump would bring Jordan into the Gaza discussion, especially since such a scenario would be difficult to implement without Egypt fully opening its borders to the Palestinians, something that remains highly questionable.

So, if the idea of relocating Gaza's Palestinians to Jordan isn't realistically on the table, what exactly is concerning Jordanian officials about Trump's remarks?

The first concern is that there are "missing clauses" in his speech. It seems that Trump has conflated various Palestinian issues, and likely what is being asked of Jordan, at a later stage, is not to accept Gaza's Palestinians, but to deal with Palestinians in the West Bank—perhaps through an increased Jordanian security role in the West Bank, or potentially accepting a number of Palestinians if Israel were to annex parts of the West Bank. There have been Israeli officials openly discussing the fact that hundreds of thousands of West Bank Palestinians hold Jordanian passports and are demanding to be relocated to Jordan. This rhetoric raises concerns among Jordanian decision-makers about the potential alignment between the Trump administration and Israel's far-right vision of resolving the Palestinian issue by shifting some of the Palestinian population burden to Jordan, one way or another.

The second concern relates to the way Trump approaches political issues in the region, which is unsettling for Jordan. His tone suggests an attitude of "ordering" others to implement plans, making political concessions, and trading stances. This raises suspicions in Jordan that US aid could be used as leverage to force Jordan into making political concessions or complying with US demands. This implies that Jordan could be forced to deal with an uncomfortable and disruptive administration for the next four years, during a time when Trump is considering a number of critical regional issues.

Jordan is unlikely to oppose Trump's administration publicly, as its diplomacy generally avoids direct confrontation. However, Jordan has acquired significant diplomatic experience, with the ability to expand its room for maneuver and craft political tactics, alliances, and regional positions that reduce and limit the pressure it faces. Jordanian decision-makers also distinguish between "red lines" that cannot be compromised and other issues that may allow for flexibility and adaptation to shifting circumstances.

At the same time, Jordanian diplomacy is expected to build regional coalitions, particularly with Saudi Arabia, which currently leads the Arab world, as well as with Egypt and Turkey, whose positions have recently aligned more closely with Jordan and Saudi Arabia. In the background, Jordan will likely refine its Palestinian position to better navigate the new phase. Nonetheless, these expected tactics and maneuvers do not negate the fact that the upcoming period will be challenging for Jordan in dealing with Trump's administration.