Wrangling over Syria, Daesh and refugees

Secretary of State John Kerry had the unbelievable cheek to express US concern to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, over reports that Moscow is arming the Syrian government and providing advisers to upgrade the performance of the overstretched Syrian army.

He apparently told Lavrov that deeper Russian involvement could escalate the conflict in Syria, increase loss of life and boost the number of civilians fleeing the country.

Kerry did not consider the fact that President Barack Obama’s interventions through sanctions, training and arming rebel groups, and Obama’s refusal to engage Damascus have done just this: escalated the conflict, increased loss of live and boosted the number of civilians fleeing conflict.

The mainstay of this approach has been Obama’s all-too-early statement on August 18, 2011. He said Syrian President Bashar Assad should “step aside”, without suggesting any alternative other than saying it is “up to the Syrian people to choose their own leaders”.

Since then, Obama has backed an expatriate opposition representing no one in Syria and a phantom Free Syrian Army, both created by Ankara, which is dedicated to Assad’s ouster even though his departure could create a vacuum in Syria which, these days, Daesh and its allies could fill.

By contrast, the Russians have tried to prevent the regime from falling and leaving a dangerous politico-military vacuum, while pressing for dialogue with opposition forces, including those backed by Ankara and Washington and its allies, with the aim of reaching a negotiated solution to the conflict and producing a transition from Assad rule to something else.

Meanwhile, retired US general and fired Central Intelligence Agency  head, David Petraeus, has suggested that the US should “peel off” and work with elements estranged from Jabhat Al Nusra, Syria’s official branch of Al Qaeda, in the battle against Daesh, Nusra, and the Syrian government.

In his view, these renegade Nusra fighters could be recruited to fight alongside the US-backed “moderate opposition” that has always been an invention rather than a reality.

Petraeus has forgotten that the newly minted officers and men of “Division 30”, the latest US trained unit – 54-strong (yes, fifty-four) – were captured by Nusra as soon as they crossed the Turkish border and took up positions in Syria.

Nusra adopted the view that US-allied fighters are not wanted in Syria. Furthermore, it was reported that Ankara’s intelligence agency informed Nusra of the arrival of the men from “Division 30”. Maybe, it should have been called “Division 54”. But perhaps only 30 are left.

Fortunately, Washington policymakers and spinners appear to have dismissed Petraeus’ nutty notion.

Nusra is the child of Al Qaeda in Iraq, which is the precursor of Daesh. Parent and child fell out over who was to lead: Abu Baker Al Baghdadi, of Daesh, or Abu Muhammad Al Julani, of Nusra. 

The latter refused to capitulate to the former, causing a rift between the two cults.  They subsequently competed over recruits and fought over territory, on the one hand, and cooperated in operations and shared fighters, on the other.

Therefore, Nusra deserters could very well be Daesh’s “Trojan horses”, seeking to undermine and destroy the US effort.

Petraeus knows very well what happens when the US trains and arms militiamen in the expectation that they will follow US orders when they arrive in the theatre of war. A number of US-recruited fighters — including tribesmen who took part the US-led anti-Al Qaeda campaign in Iraq in 2007-08 — handed over their weapons to Nusra and Daesh, and joined them or the ranks of other radical groups which fight alongside Daesh and Nusra.

Nusra is, if anything, more anti-US than anti-Daesh.

Former CIA analyst and regional commentator Graham Fuller wrote: “I think the United States is one of the key creators of this organisation” through “its destructive interventions in the Middle East and the war in Iraq [which] were the basic causes of the birth of [Daesh].”

The blowback from the wars in Syria alone is the tsunami of Syrian boat people sweeping onto Europe’s shores. Forty-nine per cent of the 320,000 arrivals this year are from Syria.

The US is under increasing pressure on the European Union to provide sanctuary for migrants seeking sanctuary there. Although one of the chief authors of the disaster that continues to grip Syria and Iraq, Washington refuses to help deal with the results of its ignorant and devastating policies.

The US, a country of 319 million, has accepted just 1,500 refugees over the past four years and expects another 300 by October.

Cyprus, which has a total population of 1.1 million, has taken in 1,215 refugees. In August, there were 104,400 arrivals in Germany; 410,000 have registered since January. The German government envisages giving asylum to 800,000 this year, 1 per cent of the country’s population of 82.5 million.

Berlin estimates that Germany will need an additional 8 million people in coming years if the country’s work force is to provide benefits for the soaring numbers of retired folk.

Officials say the US hopes to take in more in 2016. The US has received 17,000 applications from Syrians through the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, and has resettled just 9 per cent.

Washington seeks to evade criticism over providing sanctuary for refugees by saying it has given $4.1 billion to Syrian refugee relief agencies, which are now discontinuing or cutting rations to Syrians in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey due to lack of funds.

At mid-August this year, the cost of the US-led anti-Daesh operations was $3.7 billion and the average daily expenditure $9.9 million.

Daesh remains as strong and cocky as ever in north-central and northeastern Syria and northwestern and western Iraq.

At least the funds spent on refugees go to a good, essential cause: keeping people alive.