‘The vain hope that Daesh will be contained’

The US is fighting a “phoney war” against Daesh in Iraq and Syria because it is using minimal force against an enemy that has taken over about 30 per cent of the territory of Syria and 40 per cent of Iraq.

Daesh (known as the Islamic State) troops are entrenched in cities and towns they hold, and expanding their area of conquest.

The current “phoney war” is comparable to the first phase of World War II, which was characterised by the failure of Nazi Germany’s antagonists to engage its ground forces in any meaningful way.

This phase followed Germany’s invasion of Poland and declarations of war by Britain and France, which held back from launching a ground offensive for eight long months.

If British and French divisions had gone on the offensive in September, they might well have defeated the German army and ended the war in its first year.

German generals on trial after the war testified that their armed forces would have lasted only weeks if Britain and France had acted early.

US President Barack Obama has his reasons to adopt a “phoney war” approach.

An opponent of George W. Bush’s 2003 Iraq war, Obama pulled US troops out of that country and is in the process of withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan.

It remains to be seen if he will decide to go along with his generals by ordering US troops to go to Iraq, if not to Syria, where he would have no mandate to take such action.

The deployment in the Syrian Kurdish enclave of Kobani of “penny packets” of peshmerga militiamen and fighters said to belong to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) will not turn the tide of battle against Daesh in favour of Syrian Kurdish defenders who are outmanned and outgunned.

The widely advertised arrival of the 202 armed men, three quarters of them Kurds, is too little, too late.

Their deployment coincided with publication of a UN report that 1,000 foreign fundamentalist fighters have been entering Syria every month, totalling 16,000.

Local ground forces are simply not available.

The peshmerga cannot afford to send a substantial number of fighters to Kobani as Iraqi Kurdish forces are stretched thin along the border between the Iraqi autonomous Kurdish region and the Syrian-Iraqi frontier.

Less well trained and less well armed than thought, the peshmerga fled when confronted by Daesh in June in the Sinjar Mountains.

Peshmerga are currently holding their own at the Iraqi oil city of Kirkuk, which has been ringed by Daesh fighters for weeks.

Guerrillas claiming to belong to FSA but having no links to it are also stretched thin fighting the Syrian regular army, the Jabhat and Daesh.

These “Free Army” forces are fundamentalist Daesh rivals which are seeking to establish their own version of an “Islamic caliphate” in Syria and Iraq.

To complicate the situation, last weekend, Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al Nusra units were joined by Daesh fighters in a campaign to capture strategic towns and villages in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province from Western-supported guerrillas belonging to the Hazim movement and the Syria Revolutionaries Front, which were formerly allied to the Jabhat.

Since July, Jabhat has turned against the Western-backed factions and, on occasion, joined Daesh in local campaigns.

Jabhat is estimated to have 5,000-6,000 fighters in its ranks and is one of the most motivated and best trained and equipped in Syria. It attracts the second largest number of foreign fighters after Daesh, which is estimated to be able to muster 30,000-50,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq, with the largest number being in Iraq, where Daesh emerged as Al Qaeda in Iraq following the 2003 US invasion.

Both Daesh and the Jabhat regard the US as their main enemy. Consequently, US intervention seems to be forcing the rivals to join forces in certain battles if not to unify their ranks.

The battle for Kobani has been drawn out.

On the one hand, because Turkey refused to halt the flow of foreign fighters into Syria and Iraq, stop insurgents from crossing back and forth across the border to obtain medical care, visit families based in Turkey, and interdict the transfer of funds and weaponry to insurgents.

On the other hand, Ankara refused to allow fighters from the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) or allied Turkish Kurds belonging to the separatist Kurdish Labour Party (PKK) to enter Kobani from Turkish territory.

Turkey is more worried about the PYD connection with the PKK than the threat of Daesh, with which Ankara continues to believe it can reach a deal as both sides are religious fundamentalist.

This is, of course, a foolish dream because jihadists may make opportunistic arrangements with other forces, but do not concede their agendas or yield their objectives.

Jihadists also regard Muslims who do not subscribe to their narrow beliefs as apostates and crush anyone who opposes them or expresses dissent.

Iraqi Kurdish and phoney “Free Syrian Army” troops have been permitted to cross in limited numbers because Ankara wants to maintain good relations with Massoud Barzani, president of the Iraqi Kurdish autonomous region, and to boost the prospects of FSA, a Turkish creation.

The US ditched FSA in its campaign to contain and counter Daesh.

Instead of continuing to pour money and donate arms to it, the White House is set to recruit and train 5,000 new fighters.

The Pentagon argues that 15,000 are needed as soon as possible and contends that there is no time to start training fresh recruits urgently needed on the ground now.

So far, there has been no recruitment, so it could be months before the 5,000 miracle fighters are deployed.

Meanwhile, the US and its allies will continue to bomb Daesh in the vain hope that it will be contained.