‘Two black flags’ might fly across northern Syria

After a month, the battle for Tikrit was won by Iraqi Shiite militia, army troops and Sunni tribesmen backed by Iranian advisers and US air strikes.

The attackers recaptured Salaheddin provincial government headquarters from Daesh fighters, an advance for the government and then moved into other Daesh-held areas of the city. 

The offensive, launched on March 2, stalled outside the iconic Iraqi city of Tikrit because the cult’s fighters are firmly entrenched, and interested outside powers could not make up their minds how to handle the situation.

The order of battle and strategy was initially laid down by General Qassem Suleimani, commander of the elite Quds force of Iran’s Republican Guard.

The offensive was to be led by Shiite militias with Iranian advisers and special forces, with Iraqi regular army troops and Sunni tribesmen playing secondary roles.

The overall strength of the attackers was said to be 30,000, more than two-thirds militiamen, 3,000-4,000 troops, and up to 2,000 tribesmen.

The plan was for a frontal attack that was expected to either rout Daesh or force the cult’s fighters to capitulate. This did not happen.

This plan was predicated on the estimate that there were 400-750 Daesh fighters still in Tikrit. However, it has emerged that they may have numbered between 2,000 and 3,000.

They had also prepared well for an assault by planting explosive devices and mines along the approaches to Tikrit, booby-traps in buildings and snipers on high ground and high rises.

At least 1,000 militiamen were killed in the first days of fighting.

Daesh fighters continue to hold strategic areas outside the centre of Tikrit from which it had been assumed they had retreated.

In spite of the very favourable ratio of 10 attackers to every defender (the traditional ratio is three-to-one), after two weeks of fighting, the anti-Daesh forces paused their offensive and did not resume fighting until early this week.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi and his army commanders called for a new strategy and called upon the US to carry out air strikes against Daesh positions and concentrations.

Washington agreed on condition that the militias pull back and permit the Iraqi army to lead the offensive.

Several militias departed for Baghdad but the key militias, including that of the Iran-sponsored Badr Organisation, and Asaib Ahl Al Haq, remain in place and determined to fight. 

Hadi Al Amiri, head of the Badr corps, which fought on Iran’s side during the 1980-88 war with Iraq, has vowed not to leave, as that could give the US “victory”.

US air strikes began on March 25
without the withdrawal of the militias, but when the attackers moved forward this week, US air operations went ahead after some hesitation.

Both the US and Iran have been stymied by their political inability to cooperate and coordinate on the battlefield against Daesh.

Suleimani, reportedly, has left Iraq, his best-laid plan stalled by a couple of thousand of Daesh fighters.

This development amounts to a serious reverse for Abadi, who went along with Suleimani’s plan.

A senior official of the Shiite fundamentalist Dawa movement, Abadi has also mishandled the domestic political angle of the battle.

He failed to consider the sectarian implications of the plan designed by Suleimani.

Abadi did not appeal to Tikritis to support the government in its efforts to retake their city, promising to include Sunnis in political life.

His failure to make a serious political approach to Sunnis guarantees that the sectarian dimension of the operation to retake Tikrit was foremost in the minds of non-Daesh Sunnis who remained in the city and were likely to stand with Daesh.

These included former Baath Party officials banned from holding office, dismissed army officers and disaffected tribesmen who fear the Shiite fundamentalist-led government more than Daesh.

The US failure to commit unconditionally to the battle against Daesh in Tikrit reveals that Washington is still not really ready to tackle Daesh even though it is seen as a threat to the entire region and to the security of the wider world.

Some conspiracy theorists argue that the US does not want to eradicate Daesh but sees it as an asset that can be used to perpetuate chaos in this region and solidify the US presence here.

In my view, this is far fetched. Instead, I believe that the Obama administration has not yet adopted a firm, clear policy on the conflicts in this region. As a result, US political and military intervention is hesitant and indecisive.

Unfortunately, Washington’s lack of vision and, if I may say so, guts also has an impact on the situation in Syria and could, ultimately, lead to the destruction of that country under Barack Obama’s watch — just as Iraq was destroyed by George W. Bush.

If and when Daesh is driven entirely from Tikrit and, ultimately, Mosul, cult fighters are certain to converge on Raqqa, Daesh’s capital in north-central Syria.

This would swell the ranks of Daesh fighters — which some now say number up to 100,000, although this may be an exaggeration.

Their first military objective is likely to be the city of Idlib, in the northwest, conquered last weekend by a coalition of insurgent groups, including Daesh’s main rival, Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al Nusra, Salafi Ahrar Al Sham, and other mainly fundamentalist groups, some under the logo of the “Syrian Free Army”.

These groups were said to have been backed by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which are determined to counter the influence of Iran in Syria.

However, it must be recalled that Raqqa initially fell to the same military grouping in early 2013, but Daesh kicked them out and took over few months later.

During a recent interview I had in Damascus with Anas Joudeh, a spokesman for the domestic opposition Building the Syrian State, he warned that if the US does not take action soon, there could be “two black flags” flying across northern Syria.

This has already happened. The next step could be the flag of Daesh flying over Idlib as well as Raqqa.