Nothing is certain

Tonight, the Democratic National Convention will conclude in a blaze of glory, but all the hype in the world cannot camouflage divisions within the party’s ranks that will not go away. 

The divisions are fundamental: between the party’s establishment represented by presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, and progressives led by her rival Senator Bernie Sanders.

Clinton is the candidate of the past and present while Sanders, in spite of his 74 years, of the future. 

She has the centrists and fat cats who are ready to go to war; he has the liberals, leftists and kids. 

Clinton has the party machine, Sanders the enthusiasts who are determined to change Washington and make peace with the world.

She could have captured his supporters if she had chosen him or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren as her running mate. 

But Clinton went for the safe option when she opted for Tim Kaine.

Senator Kaine, a former governor of Virginia, is a middle-of-the road politician and a credible successor to Clinton if she were to die or fall ill in office.

But Kaine, a plump, middle-aged man with thinning hair, has no charisma.

Clinton, who shares that failing, could have chosen a partner with charisma who would enliven the campaign. Sanders will, apparently, be called upon to fill in the charisma gap and energise his supporters.

Clinton chose Kaine for several reasons.

He is a white male born into a labouring class family in Minnesota. He grew up in Missouri and could, maybe, appeal to Midwestern white males who have deserted the Democratic Party. 

However, unlike the white males who are stalwarts of the right-wing Republican camp, Kaine was a high achiever who graduated from the state university before attending Harvard Law School.

He also distanced himself from the white male constituency by taking a nine-month break from the study of law to serve with a Jesuit volunteer corps in Honduras. 

Kaine is both fluent in Spanish and familiar with Spanish culture — attributes which will not go down well with white males, but put him in good stead with Hispanic voters who would vote for Clinton in any case. 

Her Republican, rival Donald Trump, has done his utmost to insult and alienate the Hispanic community.

Likeable and consistent, Kaine also brings to the ticket a certain amount of personal popularity and trustworthiness which Clinton lacks.

In a poll taken this month, 67 per cent of the respondents said she was “not honest or trustworthy”. 

This survey was, however, conducted shortly after FBI director James Comey said Clinton had been “extremely careless” when she useda private e-mail server to transmit classified and secret information.

Therefore, when the memory of Comey’s remarks fades, the negative percentage could fall.

However, as the Democratic National Convention opened on Monday, Clinton was facing another embarrassing scandal.

Leaked e-mails suggested senior party figures had allegedly rigged the contest for the nomination to ensure Clinton won, an accusation the Sanders camp had put forward some time ago. 

Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a congresswoman from Florida, was forced to resign.

She not only tried to undermine Sanders’ bid for the nomination, but also alienated the Clinton campaign and the White House.

Although WikiLeaks published the damaging e-mails, Russian hackers were blamed by party faithful for providing them in an alleged attempt to tilt the outcome of the election in favour of Trump.

Outrageous conspiracy theories do not necessarily originate in this conflict-ridden region. This one could undermine Democratic unity in the wake of the chaotic Republican Party convention.

The all-too charismatic and erratic Republican contender also went for a safe option for his vice presidential pick. 

Indiana Governor Michael Pence, who previously served in the House of Representatives, is a Tea Party member and a dyed-in-the-wool conservative who, when in the House, opposed all progressive legislation, including regulations on tobacco and carbon emissions.

He supported the Iraq invasion and increasing intrusions into personal privacy under the Patriot Act, adopted after the attacks on New York and Washington in September 2001. 

He does not accept the idea that climate change is a result of humanactivity, making him a typical denier who is attached to the solid rightwing of the Republican Party. 

He provides ballast for the unpredictable Trump, who has, so far, refused to adopt a more presidential mode or enunciated consistent policies.

According to pollsters, Trump could be the least popular Republican candidate to ever run for presidency.

Since launching his campaign, he has tried to exploit racism against Hispanics, called for a ban on the entry of Muslims into the US, and insulted and demeaned women. 

He is regarded as a liar, a cheat, and a man who changes his political positions when expedient. He reads little and is not up to speed on the issues. 

In response to criticism of his lack of preparedness, he says he will rely on aides.

Nevertheless, a poll conducted during the Democratic National Convention gave Trump 48 per cent against Clinton’s 45 per cent. 

Clinton is counting on a major bounce from the convention.

Before the Republican convention, Trump had been 10 points behind Clinton. 

The Huffington Post carried a chart that combined recent poll results. 

Clinton had 43.2 per cent and Trump 41.9 per cent with 9.2 per cent undecided. 

Most polls gave the edge to Clinton, but by a narrow margin. Projections of electoral college results give Clinton the race by a large margin and show Trump, at best, would top her by only 40 electoral college votes.

These votes rather than the popular vote determine the outcome of the election.

One of the reasons why Trump has picked up popular votes is 85 per cent of registered Republicans plan to cast their ballots for him.

Among Sanders’ supporters, 55 per cent would vote for Clinton, 15 per cent for Trump and the rest would either not vote or back a third candidate. Among Sanders’ backers, 72 per cent do not trust Clinton. Many Sanders’ voters believe he would have defeated Trump.

In spite of the polls, Josh Katz, writing in “The Upshot”, published in the NewYork Times, predicts Clinton has a 74 per cent chance of winning against Trump’s 26 per cent.

This analysis was based on likely results collated on a state-by-state basis. 

But, as they say, nothing is certain in love and politics.