Finally a strategy for Syria?

At long last, after four years of death, destruction and human displacement, Russia and Iran appear to have come up with a strategy to deal with the war raging in Syria and Iraq.

The only thing that can be said about it is: better late than never.

On the political plane, Moscow and Tehran call for negotiations involving all interested parties — the Syrian government and opposition, the US, Europe, Russia, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey — with the aim of reaching an agreement on the future governance of Syria.

Moscow and Tehran argue and some European powers agree that Syrian President Bashar Assad has to be part of the solution at least on a short-term basis.

Russia and Iran also agree that Syrians have to decide their future rather than having it dictated by foreign powers.

There could be some hope on the political plane since Saudi Arabia, leader of the hardline camp, has indicated a shift in its stand from flatly opposing any role for Assad to calling for his removal before the formation of a transitional governing council.

On the military plane, Russia and Iran have called for a concerted campaign against Daesh, Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al Nusra and other jihadist factions fighting in both Syria and Iraq.

While the US may agree in theory with this strategy, its warplanes have not seriously stepped up action against Daesh in Iraq, the main focus of US efforts.

Its aircraft have staged just 70 strikes in two weeks, while the Russians have carried out 500 in three weeks, 88 in one 48-hour period.

Consequently, the US and its partners are making little headway against Daesh, their main target, while Russians and Iranians are pursuing what appears to be a well-thought-out strategy for fighting Daesh, Nusra and the rest of the taqfiris.

In Syria, the immediate targets have been insurgent-held villages and the countryside around Homs, Hama and in Aleppo province.

Syrian troops have moved into the southern suburbs of Aleppo city, the prize of the Syrian campaign.

The first phase of the Syrian offensive is intended to drive insurgents, including Daesh and Nusra, from areas south of and surrounding Aleppo city.

The second phase is to tackle the array of armed groups holding the eastern sectors of the city.

The third is likely to involve clearing a wide swathe of territory northwards to the Turkish border in order to cut off the flow of foreign fighters, weapons and funds to Daesh, Nusra and other groups. The ultimate objective is to isolate Raqqa, Daesh’s headquarters, and crush, capture or drive northwards into Turkey Daesh fighters based in north-central Syria.

In Iraq, army units and Shiite militias have retaken the Beiji area controlled by Daesh for several months.

The refinery, which formerly produced half of the country’s needs, has, reportedly, been badly damaged in fighting and is incapable of resuming output.

Therefore, securing the refinery is not the aim of the offensive.

The Beiji area is located on the main north-south highway halfway between Baghdad and Daesh-conquered Mosul and provides access to Kirkuk, now held by the Kurds, and the Sunni cities of Tikrit, Samarra, Balad and Baqubah, all under government control.

The Iraqi government’s aim is to secure the hinterland north of Baghdad before mounting the long-postponed assault on Mosul.

In Anbar province, pro-government forces have encircled Ramadi, where Daesh is said to have deployed 600 to 1,000 fighters while the army, supported by Sunni tribal elements, is attacking the town of Baghdadi on the Euphrates River.

Commanders mapping out the campaign understand that defeating Daesh on the ground requires simultaneous, coordinated offensives in both countries and on several well-chosen fronts.

Before Russia entered the air war early this month, this did not happen, and that allowed Daesh and its allies to shift fighters from one battle to another and repulse assaults by pro-government forces on villages, towns and cities held by the cult.

As a result of the coordinated campaign in two counties on several fronts, Daesh and other insurgent factions find their fighters overstretched and seriously challenged.

This was the case of the undermanned, overstretched, war-weary Syrian army and its allies over the past few months, when they lost ground.

The Russian-Iranian alliance was forged in response to advances over the past six months by Daesh and Nusra in Syria and Iraq.

While the Iranians have been deeply involved on the ground in both countries for years, the entry of Russian warplanes has, at least for now, given pro-government forces the advantage.

Russia’s weight has also been felt in Iraq through the supply of a dozen Sukoi Su-25 warplanes, as well as attack and transport helicopters, arms and munitions.

The US has only recently delivered four F-16 multipurpose fighters with trained crews; this is hardly an airforce.

While the occupying power, Washington did not develop Iraq’s air arm because the US thought its own air force would be called upon to provide airpower.

To prosecute this campaign, Russia and Iran count on the regular armies and allied militias of both countries providing “boots on the ground”.

Syria also has the backing of Lebanon’s Hizbollah and, it is reported, 2,000 Iranian troops and officers. By contrast, the US has no ground forces it can rely on in either country; the Iraq army is a weak force and Washington, rightly, cannot trust Iraq’s powerful Shiite militias which are allied with Iran.

Since its campaign to recruit, train and arm “moderate” Syrian forces has failed miserably, the US has parachuted weapons to Arab militias allied with Syrian Kurdish forces holding a wide belt of territory along the Syrian-Turkish border.

This is a tricky business as Ankara objects vehemently to arming Syrian Kurds because their movement is an offshoot of the Turkish Kurdish Workers’ Party, which has been battling the Turkish army for autonomy over the past 30 years.

While the Obama administration speaks of backing “moderates” in Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib, Washington dares not get too chummy with these groups.

Its partner is Nusra, the Syrian franchise of Al Qaeda that carried out the bombings in New York and Washington in September 2001.

Al Qaeda has no intention of giving up its efforts to haunt and hurt the US.