‘Convinced that Syria will survive’

A battered but stoic Damascus stands proud in spite of the war that has ravaged the country.

The city and its people have weathered nearly five years of conflict, but remain themselves: generally kind and helpful. The city is even more of a cosmos, a gathering of people from all over the country, of all backgrounds and faiths, than before the war, defying the taqfiris who seek to create a state of Sunnis adhering to the narrow ultraconservative theology they seek to impose here. 

Damascus is packed full of people who crowd the streets in their cars, creating massive traffic jams, and the pavements, walking shoulder to shoulder to their destinations. 

Housing is scarce and expensive.  Displaced families huddle in unfinished, skeleton buildings in the suburbs, using plastic and canvas to screen out the cold, or in schools, forcing children into classrooms holding 50-60 in schools still operating.

The Syrian pound has fallen in value from 55 to the dollar before the crisis to nearly 300 to the dollar today. Syrians have been forced to live on less and less, eating as cheaply as possible, buying second-hand clothing from street vendors.

Middle-class women who long ago sold their gold are now selling their silver in Souq Al Hamadiyeh.

Government servants suffer on salaries of $200 or less a month, but still go to their jobs. The administration still works, both at state and municipal level.

Syrians from insurgent-held areas come here to obtain official birth, marriage and death certificates.

My small hotel near the old Hijaz railway station has a constant turnover of men from Raqqa, the capital of brutal Daesh, who are here on family official business and seeking medical treatment.

Human shields held hostage by Daesh, only men over 40 and women over 35 are permitted to travel by Daesh, which keeps their families to ensure they return.

Policemen direct traffic, rubbish is collected twice a day by white lorries with a spray of tulips painted on their sides, men with barrows continuously sweep the streets.

Damascus has reason to be proud.

Damascenes welcomed the entry of Russian fighter jets into the air war, giving impetus to efforts of the army to claw back towns, villages, countryside around the capital and further afield from the array of bickering, competing insurgent factions that have seized control and held their inhabitants captive or driven them out.

People here hoped the Russian presence and army advances would change the balance of power enough to force the powers that back the opposition to negotiate a political settlement based on the Geneva accord of June 2012, which calls for a country-wide ceasefire, formation of an interim authority, a political transition to a multi-party government and elections. 

People and pundits also welcomed the results of the Vienna meetings, especially the second, attended by Damascus’ ally Iran, as well as Russia, the Western powers, Saudi Arabia and other regional states.

At that meeting, the fate of President Bashar Assad was left open, although the pro-government camp insists he must stay until elections are held (and perhaps even run) while the divided, disputatious anti-government camp insists he must have no part in the transition.

At that time, the US, Britain and France, the leading Western powers, took the view that he must stay until the elections in order to ensure the survival of state institutions and the army, and promote a safe transition.

Even the hardliners in the anti-Assad regional grouping, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, appeared to soften their stance.

Vienna II was followed by the gathering of opposition politicians and armed factions in Riyadh, which reverted to the old hardline that Assad must go ahead of the transition, unacceptable to the pro-Assad camp.

A second conference of Kurdish and other forces in Hassakah took a softer line, while a third unreported gathering convened in Damascus by domestic opposition factions pressed for priority of the fight against Daesh and ceasefires ahead of negotiations on the country’s political future.

Riyadh, the US and its European allies have see-sawed, adopting the softer stance of Vienna II and the hardline of Riyadh. Russia and Iran continued to press for Vienna II, well aware that Riyadh will perpetuate the stalemate between the government and its opponents, including Daesh and Al Qaeda’s Jabhat Al Nusra, which are playing their own brutal war games, independent of the regional actors that back the scores of mainly taqfiri armed factions competing for territory, funds and arms, and jockey for roles in the scenario in the roadmap laid down by Vienna.

This calls for negotiations to begin between the government and a unified opposition delegation on January 1, ceasefires between government forces and all insurgent groups but Daesh and Nusra, a transitional authority within six months and elections in 18 months.

Economic consultant Nabil Sukkar is optimistic about the roadmap.

“The Russians, Americans and Europeans want to bring this crisis to an end. Nobody wants to be deeply involved in another Afghanistan, Iraq or Ukraine. They fear the terrorists will go home” to their countries of origin and mount attacks like the November 13 operation in Paris.

He does not believe, however, that the January 1 date for talks is feasible.  Instead, he suggests that the meeting will take place in late January or February.

He hopes for a transitional authority by mid-year.

“We are in a much better position than a few months ago.  We are moving towards a settlement of sorts.”

Both sides are under pressure to make concessions.  In his opinion, a deal will be achieved during 2016 and reconstruction will begin in 2017.

His views are shared by some Syrians and foreign observers.

A diplomat is less optimistic, does now believe the Western powers, in particular, have not decided what to do.

Once the horrors of the Paris shootings and bombings faded, Western leaders began to backslide towards the hardline camp and continuing stalemate.

Meanwhile, the killing and displacement continues.

A group of Syrian businessmen planning a rehabilitation project met on Sunday in Damascus’ diplomatic quarter of Abu Rummaneh under a mortar shower to lay down plans for their work.

Asked why they are going ahead, Anas, the host, replied: “Since 1967, we have had one war after another, ‘73, the conflict with the Muslim Brotherhood... We are used to war.”

They are convinced that Syria will survive. Let’s hope they are right. A world without Syria would be a world without humanity, culture, history and vision.