Conflicting signals from embattled Syria

As the Syrian war enters its fifth year this week, the government, backed firmly by Russia and Iran, feels it is winning on the ground.

The army has driven insurgents from suburbs south of Damascus and neutralised armed groups in Muadamiya, to the west, and Barzeh, to the east.

The coast, the Lebanese border, and 70 per cent of Aleppo are in government hands, and Syrians from outlying areas are moving into cities held by the government.

Between 65-85 per cent of Syrians — depending on how one calculates — live under government control.

Cruel, brutal and expansionist Daesh and Jabhat Al Nusra have frightened some Western and Arab governments into mounting air attacks on radical redoubts.

On the international political front, there have been shifts in Europe, with Italy, Spain and Greece adopting the view that President Bashar Assad has to be part of a political settlement and Germany gradually moving towards that position.

Egypt has followed suit.

Last week, it looked as though the US was taking its cue from Germany.

Central Intelligence Agency Director John Brennan said the US does not wish to see the Syrian regime defeated, thus leaving the road to Damascus open to Daesh and Jabhat Al Nusra.

Brennan said: “None of us — Russia, the United States coalition and regional states — wants to see a collapse of the government and political institutions” in the capital.

Brennan, however, confused the policy line by adding that the US continues to back the “moderate” Syrian armed opposition — to which Washington has pledged $70 million in “non-lethal” weapons and for which Washington has launched training programmes in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The initial aim of these programmes is to prepare fighters for the battle against Daesh while the Obama administration’s ultimate goal is to use them to oust Assad through military, economic and political pressure.

Analysts argue that they are likely to join Daesh or Jabhat Al Nusra once they arrive on the Syrian battlefield — as have others already trained by the US.

Brennan’s comments were followed by remarks by Secretary of State John Kerry, urging the resumption of negotiations between opposition and government and suggesting that the US would be prepared to “negotiate” with Assad.

“What we are pushing for is to get him to come and [talk], and it may require that there be increased pressure on him of various kinds.”

Kerry’s words created confusion and dismay in the State Department.

Deputy spokeswoman Marie Harf denied the US would negotiate with Assad personally, but said “representatives of the Syrian regime” — headed by him — have to be part of a political solution.

Senior spokeswoman Jen Psaki attempted to clarify the administration’s stand by saying: “We continue to believe... there’s no future for Assad in Syria.”

Her words show that President Barack Obama still has not rowed back on his August 2011 call on Assad to “step aside” even though circumstances in Syria have changed dramatically for the worst over the past three-and-a-half years, and Assad remains a stabilising figure. 

Clearly the hardliners in the administration and State Department, as well as hardliners among US allies — France and Britain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar — have kept the US in their camp.

According to EU sources, France leads the bloc’s hardliners, with Britain being somewhat less tough minded.

Adding Paris’ weight to that of the US rejectionists, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said a role for Assad in the transition would constitute a “scandalous, gigantic gift to ISIS [Daesh]”.

He claimed that anti-Assad Syrians would “transfer their support to Daesh” although, for the majority of government critics this is unlikely.

Daesh is seen as a far bigger threat to both life and way of life than the government.

Conditions in Syria must not be confused with the situation in Iraq where a Shiite fundamentalist regime installed by the US and backed by Iran actively persecutes Sunnis.

This regime has driven Sunnis, former army officers and Baathists into the arms of Daesh by empowering radical Shiite militiamen who abuse and kill Sunnis.

Of course, Fabius has not visited Syria during these terrible four years and has not been in touch with people living in the country as has this correspondent, my most recent visit being last week.

Within the EU, France and Britain bully Spain, Italy and Greece, which seek to resolve the Syrian crisis using political means, into going along with hardline policies, while the majority is not particularly interested, observed an EU source.

Hardliners and “moderates” have also split the expatriate opposition National Coalition, backed by the US, Europe, Turkey and the Gulf, and made it all the more difficult for members — from diverse factions who are subjected to contradictory pressures — to agree on a common negotiating policy ahead of a second round of talks in Moscow scheduled for next month.

Kerry said he hoped these talks would bear fruit — in spite of the policies followed by the Obama administration.

The coalition refused to attend the first round in January, but individual members of the disparate groupings, including former chief Ahmed Jarba, a tribal figure with ties to Saudi Arabia, did participate as an individual.

The current coalition head, Khaled Khoja, a Turkmen resident in Turkey who is considered Ankara’s man, met with at least one member of the domestic opposition, co-founder Mona Ghanem of Building the Syrian State (BSS), but it is not clear whether he will be persuaded by Ghanem or permitted by Ankara to send an official coalition delegation to the talks.

The coalition is not alone in being divided.

The National Coordination Board (NCB), the largest domestic opposition grouping headed by Hassan Abdel Azim split after Mahmoud Marai formed the National Democratic Action Committee.

The socialist, communist and communist labour factions also have their own policies and dissidents with which to contend.

The other co-founder of BSS, Louay Hussein, was recently released from prison on bail pending a March 25th trial for undermining national morale by publishing an article critical of the government in the Saudi-owned Arabic daily Al Hayat.

Paris NCB spokesman Haitam Manaa — who has formed his own faction — tried to mediate between the external and internal groupings to secure consensus on fundamental principles on which negotiations with the government could proceed.

Unfortunately, there are competing lists of 11, 10 and 5 principles floating around from faction to faction, and there are disagreements over items.

According to the BSS spokesman, Anas Joudeh, they must commit to the following: maintaining the sovereignty and unity of the state, land and people; preserving state institutions and the army; combating terrorism; building state structures; ensuring political freedoms.

But even the short list has been disputed, and Cairo, which has sponsored the inter-opposition talks, refuses to grant entry to Egypt to Muslim Brotherhood members of the coalition.

However, Joudeh said the coalition has given up its demand that Assad step down at the beginning of the transition and agreed that he could leave at the end of the process.

Assad has already said, however, that the “Syrian people” will decide whether he stays or goes and argues that he was given a seven-year mandate by Syrians who voted in last June election.

Joudeh warned that if negotiations fail, Syria could descend into chaos like Libya or face the “two black flags” of Daesh and Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al Nusra in the north, “radicals” in control of government-held areas and continuing warfare in the south.