War, tension in West Bank and Gaza threaten regional security

The ongoing events in the West Bank and the raging war in Gaza pose serious threats to Arab national security, as the effects of these crises are not limited to the Palestinian territories only, but extend to include the entire region, including Jordan and neighbouring countries. The risks of displacement and the spread of violence are increasing, putting the internal security of neighbouring countries at stake, and increasing the complexity of the regional scene.

Since the beginning of the aggression on Gaza and the deterioration of the situation in the West Bank, the Palestinians have faced a repressive campaign aimed at expanding Israeli settlements and forcibly displacing the population, especially in the occupied West Bank areas.

These Israeli policies seek to change the demographic composition of the region and impose a new reality on the ground. Forced displacement is a flagrant violation of international law, and it not only leads to the displacement of thousands of Palestinians, but also creates humanitarian and social crises that put pressure on neighbouring countries, including Jordan.

Jordan is one of the countries most affected by what is happening in the West Bank and Gaza. Security tensions and the forced displacement of Palestinians could lead to new waves of displacement towards Jordan, which already hosts a large number of Palestinian and Syrian refugees. 

The arrival of more refugees increases the economic and social burdens on the Kingdom, which is already suffering from internal economic pressures and development challenges. In this context, any destabilisation in the West Bank or Gaza could lead to direct threats to the security of the Jordanian border.

In addition, the conflict in Gaza and the West Bank constitutes a source of concern for Arab security. Escalating tensions between Palestinians and Israelis could lead to the outbreak of wider conflicts in the region, as confrontations could extend to include other countries, especially those with strong ties to the Palestinian cause, such as Lebanon and Syria. 

The greatest danger lies in the possibility of the conflict turning into a broader regional confrontation, especially if other regional powers become directly involved in the conflict, which could lead to destabilization of the entire region.

Politically, the escalation of tensions in the Palestinian territories complicates the situation regarding the Palestinian issue. With the increase in Israeli settlements and the continued bombing of Gaza, a political solution to the conflict is becoming more elusive. 

This escalation has led to divisions within the Arab world over how to deal with the crisis. Some Arab countries that have taken steps towards normalizing relations with Israel now find themselves in a difficult position, facing pressure from their people to stand firm against Israeli aggression, while trying to maintain their new relations with Tel Aviv.

On the Jordanian level, the relationship with Israel is particularly sensitive, especially considering the political agreements signed between the two countries, such as the Wadi Araba Agreement. 

However, the continued Israeli aggression puts the Jordanian government in a difficult position, as the Jordanian street demands a more stringent position towards Israel. Jordan, as the custodian of Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem, also faces additional challenges with the continued Israeli violations of Al Aqsa Mosque and holy sites, which increases internal tensions and affects the stability of the Kingdom. 

From a security perspective, the continuation of the conflict in Gaza and the West Bank could strengthen the influence of extremist groups that exploit the chaos in the occupied territories to recruit and incite violence. These groups could pose a direct security threat to Jordan and neighbouring Arab countries, as they try to exploit the fragile situation to expand their activities and threaten the internal security of those countries.

Jordan, as one of the countries that supports international efforts to achieve peace in the region, finds itself in a sensitive position, as it seeks to play a positive role in promoting dialogue and peaceful solutions, while facing major challenges in terms of internal security and the economy. 

At the Arab level, these crises threaten to increase tensions and divisions between Arab countries, which may complicate the region’s ability to deal with common challenges such as terrorism, extremism, and economic changes.

Finally, the ongoing events in the West Bank and the war on Gaza pose a serious threat to Arab national security. As tensions continue and the risks of displacement increase, it becomes imperative for Jordan and Arab countries to work together to deal with these crises, whether by strengthening diplomatic and political efforts, or through security and humanitarian coordination to confront their repercussions.

The Palestinian issue remains at the heart of Arab interest, and any complacency in dealing with this conflict may lead to destabilisation of the entire region.

Hasan Dajah is professor of strategic studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University