Escalation in Israeli-Lebanese conflict and Iranian strike: Regional, global dimensions

The Middle East region is witnessing increasing tensions against the backdrop of the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has been escalating to include mutual strikes and influential military actions. Recently, the scope of the Israeli war on Lebanon has expanded significantly, as Israel has intensified its operations against Hizbollah sites, the organisation considered a military arm of Iran in the region. In return, Iran carried out a missile strike on Israel, in a development that indicates that the conflict is heading towards a more intense phase. To understand this complex context, it is necessary to analyse the factors behind these transformations, including the roles played by Russia and China as international powers in this conflict.

The expansion of Israeli military operations against Lebanon comes in light of the escalation of Hizbollah’s capabilities, which has been able to strengthen its military arsenal in recent years, including the possession of precision missiles that threaten the depth of Israel. This growing threat has prompted Israel to adopt a more aggressive strategy, aimed at striking Hizbollah’s military infrastructure before it becomes an actual threat that is difficult to confront. For its part, Israel sees Hizbollah, which receives military and financial support from Iran, as an extension of Iranian influence in the region, and thus striking it is part of confronting Iranian expansion, which it considers an existential threat.

The regional transformations that the region has witnessed in the last decade, including the collapse of some regimes and the disintegration of countries such as Syria, Libya and Yemen, have further complicated the scene. This disintegration has allowed Hizbollah and Iran to strengthen their influence in politically fragile areas, such as Lebanon and Syria. At the same time, the weakness of central governments in these countries has created insufficiently governed spaces that armed groups can exploit to increase their influence. This situation has prompted Israel to take more aggressive preemptive steps to ensure that these areas do not become bases that threaten its security.

In a related context, the Iranian missile strike on Israel came as a direct response to the ongoing Israeli operations against Iranian targets and their allies in Syria and Lebanon. 

This strike is considered a major escalation in the conflict between the two countries, as it has gone beyond the usual proxy wars to a direct confrontation, carrying dangerous implications for the possibility of the conflict turning into a wider regional war. Iran, for its part, sees this missile strike to send a clear message to Israel that it will not stand idly by in the face of what it sees as ongoing violations of its sovereignty and influence in the region. 

The strike also reflects Iran’s desire to demonstrate its deterrence capabilities, especially considering the economic and political pressures it faces from the international community.

The Russian player in this context plays a vital and complex role. Russia, which has strong relations with both Iran and Hizbollah, finds itself in a position that requires maintaining a delicate balance. On the one hand, Moscow supports its alliance with Iran in Syria, where the two powers work together to support the Syrian regime. On the other hand, Russia seeks to maintain good relations with Israel, which it considers an important partner in the Middle East. This balance is evident in Russian policy, which attempts to mediate between the conflicting parties and avoid taking complete sides.

On the other hand, Russia plays the role of mediator in many conflicts in the region and may seek in the coming period to play a greater role in calming tensions between Israel and Iran, as Moscow realises that escalation could lead to the complete de-stabilisation of the region, which is contrary to its strategic interests. At the same time, the continuation of tensions may enhance the international parties’ need for Russia as a mediator and main interlocutor in the conflict, which will raise its status on the international stage.

As for China, despite its lack of direct involvement in military conflicts in the Middle East, it has a growing economic and political role in the region. Beijing seeks to achieve stability in the Middle East, as it relies heavily on oil and gas from this region. Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel could threaten energy supplies to China, which is prompting it to push for de-escalation.

China has strong economic relations with both Iran and Israel, as it considers Iran a major energy supplier, while it views Israel as an important trade and technology partner. This situation makes China keen not to publicly side with either party, but at the same time it may play a diplomatic role in mediating between them, especially considering the reduction of the American role in the region.

It is likely that China seeks to enhance its role as a neutral international power that can influence the decisions of the various parties, through its policy based on economic relations and long-term investments.

Finally, it can be said that the escalation of tensions between Israel and Lebanon, and the Iranian missile strike on Israel, indicate a new phase in the regional conflict that may have far-reaching implications.

Russia and China, as major international players, seek to maintain balance and stability, but each has its own priorities and interests that may determine their future roles in this conflict. In light of the complexity of the regional and international scene, the question remains open as to whether these tensions will develop into a comprehensive confrontation or remain confined within the boundaries of the current conflict.

Hassan Dajah is professor of strategic studies at Al-Hussein Bin Talal University