Democracy’s data paradox

LONDON — This historic election year, during which voting will have taken place in countries that account for half of the world’s population, has underscored a grim reality: Truth is under attack. Whether it is former US president Donald Trump spreading lies about the federal response to Hurricane Helene, far-right politicians in Hungary claiming their opponents intend to start World War III, or the proliferation of artificial-intelligence-generated deepfakes, a torrent of misinformation is making it difficult for voters to distinguish fact from fiction, eroding the very foundation of democratic governance.

At the heart of this crisis lies a paradox: data, the lifeblood of modern democracies, can become their undoing when exploited by bad actors to spread misinformation and undermine democratic institutions. Though this threat is especially acute in the lead-up to major elections, addressing it requires a steadfast commitment to truth that extends beyond election campaigns.

Data play a crucial role in fostering public trust in political institutions. At its core, the social contract between democratic governments and their citizens relies on a shared understanding of who those citizens are. Tools like censuses and maps are central to this process, reflecting the extent to which governments recognise the people they are meant to serve.

South Africa’s transition from apartheid to democracy is a prime example. After decades of systemic exclusion and oppression, building a democratic society required reliable information. In this regard, the 1996 census, the first conducted under a democratic government, marked a pivotal shift: A genuine effort was made to count the entire population. Previous censuses, designed by the apartheid regime, had focused on white citizens while significantly undercounting the Black majority and other racial groups.

With immigration at the top of voters’ minds, who qualifies as a citizen and how to treat non-citizens are highly salient questions. Notably, studies show that voters across Europe consistently overestimate the size of immigrant populations and that this misperception fuels demand for divisive policies. While immigration is often a contentious issue, these debates might be less destabilising if voters had a clearer, data-driven understanding of their countries’ demographics.

For democracy to thrive, governments must also be accountable to their citizens. Here, too, data play a critical role. Reliable information enables policymakers to make sound decisions and empowers voters to hold political leaders to account.

Providing this information is the vital, yet thankless, job of national statistics agencies. Despite a remarkable return of $32 for every dollar invested in public-sector data, governments prefer initiatives with more immediate popular appeal over investing in data infrastructure.

But this is a false choice. When used effectively, data can boost tax revenue and stimulate private investment, expanding government budgets and enabling policymakers to improve public services. In Nicaragua, for example, a World Bank-funded study revealed that large-scale sewage projects disproportionately benefited wealthier households. This shifted spending priorities toward latrines and education programs, which benefitted poorer communities at a lower cost.

Accountability, too, depends on a continuous exchange of information between governments and citizens. For democracies to function, governments must invest in transparency, both to understand voters’ expectations and to keep the public informed of their own actions. As Ghanaian Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia put it, “Statistics deliver both good and bad news, but effective governments need to hear both.”

As the past year has shown, there is no easy way to stop politicians and bad actors from spreading falsehoods during election campaigns. But the impact of these lies can be mitigated. While national and international bodies rightly focus on the urgent task of curbing misinformation on social media, governments can help citizens navigate today’s information ecosystem. Shoring up their data infrastructure would help develop a public information system that is as resilient and effective as the forces seeking to undermine it. Governments can also promote media literacy, equipping citizens with the tools to identify and reject misinformation. Making these skills a part of school curricula could prepare future voters to resist manipulation.

Credible, accessible data are as essential to democratic governance as elections and legislatures. At a time when democracy itself is on the ballot in many countries, robust data hold the key to maintaining the integrity of our information ecosystems, enabling governments to confront pressing challenges, and ensuring that democratic institutions can withstand emerging authoritarian threats.

Claire Melamed is CEO of the Global Partnership  for Sustainable Development Data. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024.  www.project-syndicate.org