COP29 priorities

As COP29 approaches, the world is facing multiple crises including the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the expanding Gaza war. Despite these challenges, the focus remains on addressing climate change as the top priority. However, there is uncertainty about whether COP29 will stay on track or if there will be diversions from its primary objectives.

During COP26 in Glasgow 2021, courageous decisions were made despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. These decisions included a commitment to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the need for more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the phase-down of unabated coal power and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Additionally, developed countries reaffirmed their goal of raising $100 billion per year to support climate finance for developing countries and initiated a dialogue on funding mechanisms to address climate-related loss and damage. Furthermore, over 100 countries agreed to reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 compared to 2020 levels.

Similarly, during COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh 2022, despite the energy crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war, countries continued to prioritise climate change. They established a Loss and Damage Fund to provide financial support to countries most affected by climate change impacts and emphasised the need to enhance adaptation efforts. Additionally, they set a goal to double adaptation finance by 2025, established preparation procedures for the first global stock-take under the Paris Agreement and initiated a Mitigation Work Programme to urgently scale up global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The commitment to raising $100 billion per year for developing countries to finance climate commitments was reiterated once again.

COP28 Dubai 2023 took place shortly after the unexpected outbreak of the Gaza war. During the event, all countries demonstrated their dedication to addressing climate change with ambitious goals. These included the decision to phase out fossil fuels and increase renewable energy deployment by tripling installed capacities, as well as enhancing climate finance and emphasising the involvement of youth and civil society in decision-making processes. However, the conference did not address the consequences of war on energy security or national or regional priorities.

As COP29 approaches, with current political conflicts and regional wars threatening global peace, we can anticipate one of two scenarios. In the first scenario, the international community will continue to grapple with the complexities of climate change, energy transitions and geopolitical challenges. The outcomes of COP28 will set the stage for discussions and negotiations at COP29, where countries must demonstrate a clear commitment to meaningful action and collaborative solutions. The success of COP29 will depend on the willingness to translate ambitious agreements into concrete actions to effectively combat climate change while ensuring social equity and global stability.

The effectiveness of this scenario, considering ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions, could be influenced by several factors. These include the geopolitical context making collaborative climate action more difficult, ongoing conflicts diverting resources away from climate initiatives and the need to address financial commitments for developing nations. Shifts in leadership and political will due to conflicts may also impact countries' commitment to climate goals or bring new coalitions focused on climate action among non-conflicted nations. This could result in limitations on commitments or increased activism for stronger climate commitments, as well as new technological and economic opportunities.

The other scenario involves new priorities emerging for different countries, with countries directly involved prioritising immediate security concerns over long-term climate commitments. This approach could greatly affect ongoing coalitions, potentially leading to the formation of new coalitions and new measures or approaches to combat climate change. And in worst condition we could see result in countries withdrawing from ongoing commitments.