No quick end in sight for Middle East escalation

The long-awaited speech by Israeli prime minister Netanyahu in front of the US Congress did not provide hope for a quick resolution of the escalating situation in the Middle East. On the contrary, Netanyahu made it clear that the aim of his visit was to consolidate his position, strategy and vision for Gaza’s post-war future and upcoming confrontations with Iran and its proxies, specifically Hizbollah.

He used the phrase “total victory, nothing less”, which dims any hope for a quick de-escalation or ceasefire that could be the foundation of a longer period of truce.

Netanyahu’s request to “fast-track” additional military aid, made clearly in front of Congress, shows that the war plan is not over yet. A longer phase of conflict seems imminent, and not limited to Gaza, which has going for nearly 10 months now.

The use of the phrase “we will win” by Netanyahu indicates that the state of war will dominate the scene for quite some time.

While many believe that negotiations could continue and a truce might be possible, the pressure is concentrated on the hostage issue.

However, Netanyahu’s words clearly show that there is one way of seeing things and one vision to be applied: Negotiating with Hamas while harbouring determination to destroy it.

He spoke clearly about the day after defeating Hamas, envisioning a demilitarised and deradicalized Gaza. He emphasised that for the foreseeable future, security control over Gaza will be an Israeli responsibility, which he will not compromise, to prevent the resurgence of terror and ensure Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel. This vision of preventing threats will be applied to other fronts, mainly, the West bank, Golan Heights and the south of Lebanon.

These clear messages indicate that a coming phase of escalation is expected, which might also lead to other regional protagonists escalating in reaction.

This could include the Houthis in Yemen, as well as pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria.

These groups could find targeting any American military presence and strategic interests an effective way to put more pressure on the Americans and highlight the risks of an open regional confrontation.

These groups are unlikely to leave Hezbollah to face the Israeli war machine alone. Increasing the risks and putting more pressure on the US is the only way for these groups to avoid a harsh confrontation with Israel, especially during the US Presidential election campaign.

The current American administration, with its VP as a Presidential candidate, will not tolerate scenarios of strategic loss or casualties for the US. Therefore, making the US hesitant in backing Netanyahu is a potential strategy for them to adopt.

Netanyahu’s speech shows that Israel is determined to continue an open war scenario, possibly with more focus on the northern front.

In the time left for the current American administration it will be difficult to impose a truce or contain the escalation. Netanyahu’s words, “give us the tools faster, and we’ll finish the job faster”, leave no room for hope that these fronts will close anytime soon.