Late drama in store after predictable group stage

BERNE — Five knockout stage places are up for grabs in the Champions League this week, offering enough late drama to stop the final round of group matches from turning into a damp squib.

Eleven teams are already through from a group stage which has produced too many one-sided matches for comfort.

Only half of the matches involve teams playing for a place in the last 16 while the remainder will decide who wins each group, gaining a theoretical advantage for the draw, or qualifies for the Europa League.

Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Chelsea, Paris St Germain, Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk have already qualified by securing a top-two finish in the four-team groups.

Italian pair Juventus and AS Roma and English Premiership duo Manchester City and Liverpool are among 11 sides battling to join them and Roma’s match at home to Manchester City on Wednesday is the highlight.

Roma, City and CSKA Moscow all have five points in Group E, but the head-to-head system favours Roma who need a win to qualify, or a draw if CSKA fail to beat runaway leaders Bayern.

Such a scenario barely looked likely when Roma lost 7-1 at home to Bayern, but City’s defeat at home to CSKA has thrown the race wide open.

English champions City need to win and hope CSKA do not beat Bayern while the Russians can only qualify if they win and Roma do not beat City.

The situation is simpler in Group B where Liverpool have reached last chance saloon in the Champions League and only victory against Swiss champions FC Basel on Tuesday will spare them being left out in the cold.

Third in Group B, level on four points with Bulgarian side Ludogorets, Liverpool are two points behind Basel and 11 points adrift of unbeaten group winners Real Madrid and have no more wriggle room after a disappointing campaign so far.

After a four-year absence Liverpool’s return to a tournament in which they have such a rich history has been an anti-climax but a first victory since September would see them snatch a last 16 spot at the expense of the Swiss side.

Basel, who beat Liverpool 1-0 in October, need just a draw.

While Liverpool would have hoped to have performed better — their only win so far was a narrow one against Ludogorets at home — the stage is set for one of Anfield’s special nights.

“We will get great support and there will be energy,” Rodgers, whose side suffered a disappointing 0-0 draw at home to Sunderland on Saturday, told the Liverpool Echo.

“I remember against Zenit St Petersburg [in 2013] we needed to win by two goals and went 1-0 down early on which meant we had to win by three. We then came back to win the game 3-1.

“We could not muster that last goal. But it showed then that the support and the players coming together can be a real force. I am looking at that as being a big advantage for us. I am really looking forward to the atmosphere.”

“For us, we could not have wanted any more than to go to Anfield on Tuesday night needing to win the game to get qualified. It’s perfect,” he added.

Basel’s win against the Reds in October was their fourth in succession against English opposition in the competition and the Swiss Champions have lost just one of their last nine meetings with English sides.

After Basel succumbed to a spirited 1-0 home defeat against holders Madrid last month, the Spanish side’s manager Carlo Ancelotti told reporters: “I believe Basel is currently better than Liverpool.

“Basel’s players are fit and the team is motivated, I think Basel has a small advantage over Liverpool.”

Basel manager Paulo Sousa, who was replaced by Rodgers as Swansea City manager in 2010, told reporters that his side hold a slight advantage over Liverpool, virtue of their performance against the Spanish giants.

“I think Ancelotti is right, as we were the team that caused Real Madrid with the most difficulties in this Champions League group so far,” he said.

In Group C, Monaco need a draw at home to Zenit St Petersburg to follow Bayer Leverkusen through, while the Russians need a win.

If the game ends goalless, Monaco will qualify despite having scored only two goals in six games, one less than the previous low set by AS Roma in 2002/03 and Villarreal in 2005/06.

Serie A champions Juventus need a point at home to Atletico Madrid on Tuesday to avoid a repeat of last season’s failure to make it beyond the group stage.

If they lose and Olympiakos beat Malmo at home, the Greek champions would qualify instead.

The final place at stake is in Group G where a draw at Chelsea will be enough for Sporting Lisbon if German rivals Schalke 04 fail to win in Maribor.

The Bundesliga side, thrashed 5-0 at home by Chelsea in their previous match, must beat the Slovenian champions and hope Sporting lose.

The draw for the Round of 16 is on December 15 where the eight group winners will be seeded. They could find Barcelona lurking in pot two if the Catalans fail to beat Paris St Germain at home in Wednesday’s heavyweight clash and finish second in
Group F.

The scoring race between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo will continue to provide a distraction.

Barcelona’s Messi reached a Champions League record of 74 goals in their last game while Real Madrid’s Ronaldo has 71 and will see the game at home to eliminated Ludogorets Razgrad as a chance to close the gap.