Chance of final Iran nuclear deal by deadline ‘small’

VIENNA — The likelihood of Iran and six world powers reaching an agreement over Tehran's nuclear programme by a November 24 deadline is "very small", a European source close to the talks in Vienna said on Saturday.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said discussions about the possibility of extending the negotiations beyond Monday's self-imposed deadline might begin on Sunday.

"The chances of reaching a deal in the next 48 hours are very small," the source said. "Our feeling is that they [Iran's negotiators] don't have a lot of flexibility."

There had been "no significant" progress so far on the main stumbling blocks of Iran's uranium enrichment capacity and the lifting of the sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear programme, the source said.

Iran rejects Western accusations that it is seeking to develop a capability to build nuclear bombs.

The source did not rule out a deal, but said the Iranian negotiators would need to be given instructions from Tehran to make it happen, and even then it would need between two weeks and two months to finalise.

“A political accord would need to be sufficiently detailed and precise, but on enrichment, sanctions and PMD [possible military dimensions], we’re not there. It seems to me the most unlikely [scenario].”

The source said that no decision had yet been made to extend the talks, but suggested that an extension was preferable to letting them collapse. “It’s the ministers’ decision, but talks on an extension could begin Sunday or Monday,” he said, adding that a rollover would run for several months.

The source said that, even if an extension was decided, he was “sceptical” that a final deal could be reached.

“I’m not certain they [Iran’s negotiators] have the mandate to reach where they need to be,” he said.