IMF says Tunisia should adjust its 'development model'

TUNIS — Tunisia should adjust its development model to counter economic slowdown and build “inclusive growth”, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) country representative said, ahead of an expected line of IMF credit.

The authorities have failed to redress the economy since the uprising five years ago that ousted longtime president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

Tunisia’s economic growth slowed to 0.8 per cent last year from 2.3 per cent in 2014, and unemployment nationwide stands at 15 per cent.

In January, a wave of protests spread to several cities including Tunis in some of the worst social unrest since the 2011 revolt.

“This trend needs to be reversed... The idea would be to build the base for inclusive growth and revise Tunisia’s development model,” Robert Blotevogel told AFP.

An IMF delegation is in Tunisia to discuss a new aid package at least equal to a $1.7 billion credit line granted in 2013.

Blotevogel said the government and the IMF had agreed on “the goal for big reforms and the diagnosis” of the situation, and were now “mostly focusing on the timeline for implementation”.

The IMF’s board is expected to approve the new line of credit, to be over four years at the request of Tunis, on April 22, he added.

“Expected growth for 2016 does not correspond to the aspirations of the Tunisian people. It will not be strong enough to reduce unemployment,” he elaborated.

He expects 2016 to be a “stabilisation year”, explaining that the agriculture sector was projected to perform less well than in 2015.

Olive oil and date exports gave the economy a boost in 2015, the finance minister indicated in October.

Tourism hit by attacks 

In tourism, “initial signs... do not lead to believe that there will be any great recovery” this year, Blotevogel said.

Tunisia lost more than a third of its vital tourism revenues in 2015, after attacks claimed by Daesh that killed 59 foreign tourists.

According to Blotevogel, Tunisia should adjust its budget to relaunch the economy and ensure growth can “reach the most vulnerable and also the disadvantaged regions”.

“We are facing a problem in the composition of the budget,” he added, describing the civil service as “a great drain on state expenses” and “a great challenge for Tunisia’s economy”.

Tunisia’s last line of credit from the IMF in 2013, which was over two years with a seven-month extension, came as support for the political transition after the 2011 uprising.

The package was implemented in “very difficult conditions”, Blotevogel said, citing slow growth in the European Union, Tunisia’s largest trade partner, and the crisis in neighbouring Libya.

The democratic transition “took longer than expected” and was “accompanied by social unrest... then by the security aspect whose importance increased with the terrorist attacks in 2015”.

A Daesh-claimed attack on the National Bardo Museum in Tunis in March last year killed 21 tourists and a policeman, while another killed 38 tourists at a beach resort near Sousse in July.

A suicide bombing on a bus in Tunis in November, also claimed by Daesh, killed 12 presidential guards.

Tunisia showed a “certain resilience because the greater macro-economic balances were maintained”, Blotevogel said.

The authorities also “made considerable progress in several fields including the financial sector” with the restructuring of public banks.

But the country still faces “a number of challenges, weaknesses”, he added.