Air cargo volumes expected to drop by 4 per cent in 2023—IATA

GENEVA — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said air cargo traffic is expected to drop by a further 4 per cent in 2023, but cargo revenues are still going to be higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Cargo volumes are expected to fall 4.3 per cent year on year to 57.7m tonnes, following on from an 8.1% fall this year to 60.3m tonnes, IATA head of policy analysis Andrew Matters, said at the IATA Global Media Day.

“This reflects the challenging global economic backdrop in terms of global economic growth but also in terms of international trade,” he added, indicating that as a result of load factors returning to pre-Covid levels, yields are expected to decline by around 22 per cent next year, following on from a 7 per cent increase this year, a 24 per cent increase in 2021 and a 50 per cent increase in 2020.

“It [22percent] sounds like a big number and quite dramatic but it isn’t too unreasonable given the very strong increases we have seen in recent years,” he added.

Airline cargo revenues are expected to fall around 25 per cent next year to $149.4 billion, which is still around 50 per cent higher than pre-Covid levels.

“We think the air cargo market is cooling after what has been a very strong and unusual period,” he added.

“We expect that this will continue into 2023,” he said.

Matters said that supply chain disruption is continuing and to the extent that it will impact the shipping industry, which could present a source of upside risk for air cargo. 

“We might get some trade that goes from shipping to air cargo for businesses to plug some gaps in supply chains…And if we were to get a sudden turnaround in confidence that fed through to demand, often what we find is that first recovery upswing favours air cargo because businesses need to get inventory into their warehouses and stock on to their shelves quickly,” he added.